Some PV demand forecast for 2012 China
Junfeng Li: 5-7 GW and Ray Lian: ~5 GW, with possibility going 6 GW
Recently, Junfeng Li, a former CDRC official and influential figure in energy policy forecast China's 2012 demand to be 5-7GW http://www.ne21.com/news/show-26065.html. Since basically all solar pv development need to register through CDRC in order to receive FIT, his forecast is the most 'official' version. He also said the solar farms can be profitable if they can generate more electricity. As more and more solar farms become profitable, financing is getting easier. Li's comment sounds plain - but quite a few solar farms have operational problems and cannot output designed capacity.
Last week, Ray Lian, an analyst from Solarbuzz issued a report seeing a demand of 5GW with possibility going to 6GW. I consider Ray Lian one of the top pv analysts for China's PV industry.
Indeed, so far the applications received by CDRC appear to support the 5-7 GW figure for 2012. However, connect-to-grid is still a big problem so I think the actual installation should be at the lower limit of the range - or even lower than 5 GW. I believe Ray Lian also has the same consideration in giving his forecast. The top provinces with big PV projects planned this year are Gansu, Ningxia and Qinghai - all located in the west. They also happen to be the places with large wind installations. As we already know that the grid has trouble in accepting the electricity from the wind farms, the grid-connection for PV will inevitably be similarly difficult.
Additionally, one industry insider said he is not that optimistic at China's demand despite all the rosy forecast. He said 4 GW for 2012.
No matter how much installations in 2012, one thing is clear - it is gonna be one of the difficult years for PV manufacturers as the demand does not contribute much to bottom line thanks to the poor ASP. 4 GW or 8 GW won't save them from losing money in 2012. Some are fearful that the ASP will drop below 0.70 USD at Q2 and not come back throughout the year. Right now, the top module makers are battling each other...
For more info on China's demand, one can my series: https://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/154-chinas-power-industry-iv-cost-comparisons-and-electricity-prices; https://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/142-chinas-power-industry-iii-pv etc
