SunEdison (SUNE)

[odyd 1,256]

1 hour ago, odyd said: SUNE cannot become bankrupt knowingly by taking on a merger. Merger would also lead to VSLR bankruptcy. Two options merger and no merger cannot have same outcome. This why not merging offers argument for survival. If merged entity was to be bankrupt as a result how would Vivint argue a compensation for not being insolvent?

SUNE will most likely delay beyond the date or close with massive dilution.

Then would you agree that this is a bargain under $2? 

It is all or nothing. Not sure if this is a prudent way to use your money, but if works out you could make a huge gain. Like kkn said.

[lepv123 0]

3 hours ago, odyd said:

It is all or nothing. Not sure if this is a prudent way to use your money, but if works out you could make a huge gain. Like kkn said.

Thanks Odyd and Kkn. Huge risk for sure. Lets say there is no BK. Do you think SUNE can make a turn around and become profitable? Or is that an impossible task due to its business model?

[disdaniel 48]

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/03/07/march-is-critical-to-sunedisons-pursuit-of-vivint.aspx?source=yahoo-2&utm_campaign=article&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=yahoo-2

"But SunEdison filing for bankruptcy or David Tepper winning his lawsuit may not be all bad for the company"

I know Travis has been very negative on SUNE, but this quote seems like bizarro world.  On what world is filing bk not bad for the company?

 

[lepv123 0]

Why would SUNE settle LAP if it will be BK? Isn't that why it's holding up pretty well? Would have been in low $1s especially with the dividend cut.

[odyd 1,256]

I was considering election from 313 to get cash to public shareholders. I was confused as the election does not change the cash spent. It changes who gets it. So SUNE is going to be short without $300M term Facility by some $150M or so. This is assuming that TERP pays for solar plants.

[explo 609]

9 hours ago, lepv123 said:

Thanks Odyd and Kkn. Huge risk for sure. Lets say there is no BK. Do you think SUNE can make a turn around and become profitable? Or is that an impossible task due to its business model?

I don't know what your play is, but I see many SUNE proponents similarily saying that two things can happen. 1. It goes to $0. 2. It goes to $5. And that they think that the latter is more likely than the former and thus its like an option where the risk/reward is good. Man, this argument sounds so flawed I don't know where to start.

I don't like to give finacial advice, but I'll just add a third option: 3. They repair their BS through massive dilution and survive to linger as a penny stock for a long time. 

The interesting thing is not whether the company goes BK or not. Not even if the company will do well after avoiding BK. The interesting thing is what the consequence for the stock is after the company takes the necessary actions to avoid BK.

 

[slowtrader 1]

43 minutes ago, explo said:

I don't know what your play is, but I see many SUNE proponents similarily saying that two things can happen. 1. It goes to $0. 2. It goes to $5. And that they think that the latter is more likely than the former and thus its like an option where the risk/reward is good. Man, this argument sounds so flawed I don't know where to start.

I don't like to give finacial advice, but I'll just add a third option: 3. They repair their BS through massive dilution and survive to linger as a penny stock for a long time. 

The interesting thing is not whether the company goes BK or not. Not even if the company will do well after avoiding BK. The interesting thing is what the consequence for the stock is after the company takes the necessary actions to avoid BK.

 

If BK is priced in, massive dilution should also be, and after they clear everything up, it will move up or down. In my opinion, they will move up with BK avoided initially, but then it all depends on the terms and their long term plan.

Compared to options, there is no time-premium, just hope and fear.

[explo 609]

16 minutes ago, slowtrader said:

If BK is priced in, massive dilution should also be, and after they clear everything up, it will move up or down. In my opinion, they will move up with BK avoided initially, but then it all depends on the terms and their long term plan.

Compared to options, there is no time-premium, just hope and fear.

Good point, but it means that it will neither jump nor crash when they do the massive dilution to avoid BK. It could linger in low single digits or maybe fade to pennies unless they manage to restructure operation too to show profitability. I hope they can come back as a functioning devco to server as a sponsor though or that they let go of the yieldcos to a new sponsor.

Your ETP holding looks like somethings I should look into..

 

[slowtrader 1]

12 minutes ago, explo said:

Your ETP holding looks like somethings I should look into..

It's only a small position as diversivication. Much more volatile than i hoped, but for your "active reposition strategy", this would be a good thing :-) They pay good dividends, but have a high debt level and a bit of customer-risk in the oil and gas-sector.

[Pop2mollys 409]

Vivint Solar Terminates Merger Agreement for SunEdison's Breach

 

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vivint-solar-terminates-merger-agreement-for-sunedisons-breach-300232327.html

 

[explo 609]

46 minutes ago, Pop2mollys said:

Vivint Solar Terminates Merger Agreement for SunEdison's Breach

 

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vivint-solar-terminates-merger-agreement-for-sunedisons-breach-300232327.html

 

Boom!

[thejaq 36]

57 minutes ago, explo said:

Boom!

LOL, well SUNE has some volume behind its 50%+ PM this morning. Yieldcos up, but no volume yet

[odyd 1,256]

1 hour ago, explo said:

Boom!

Oh my, so SUNE had to stand up for itself in a last minute, Feb 29, being the minute, Vivint suing.

[disdaniel 48]

Wow.  Best news I could hope for from SUNE.

[odyd 1,256]

We wanted this outcome, TERP holders in particular. Great outcome.

[kknd1234 90]

Congrats Lepv123! 

[pg6solar 83]

2 minutes ago, odyd said:

We wanted this outcome, TERP holders in particular. Great outcome.

I beg to differ a little be here. It was GLBL not TERP crushed on 2/25 due to much more financial dependency/uncertainty of SUNE. I'm ecstatic.  

[odyd 1,256]

Yes Lepv the risk paid off for you, congrats as well.

[pg6solar 83]

If there's ever a wrong timing, this must be it: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3956577-sunedison-merger-agreement-settlement-may-lead-20-percent-80-percent-upside-vivint-solar?auth_param=c6jvn:1bdthjj:25291cde642bc9d882f1485cc64b57ed&uprof=44#alt3

[odyd 1,256]

Now the question is if SUNE can run to $5 on this news and TERP to $16? I suppose SUNE could have the highest volume ever today.

Having Vivint deal off I expect no BK, however what they will show on the 15th is going to be bad hopefully with ray of hope. Momentum alone could have very positive results to the entire complex.

[odyd 1,256]

Filing by Vivint, asking to consummate on two different dates, I am actually proud what SUNE did. They came to senses in last minute. Should have thought before jumping into this mess , but I would be found nowhere TERP shares.

https://biz.yahoo.com/e/160308/vslr8-k.html

[disdaniel 48]

I'm really surprised how little bounce SUNE is getting this morning.  I would have expected it would be over $3 by now.

Also disappointed in GLBL, seems like the safest bet on the news and here it is down a bunch...oh well, it has nowhere to go but up now, imo

[bodhi 21]

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/options/2016/03/08/inside-the-six-figure-bearish-bet-on-sunedison-inc-sune

somebody is dropping a load on a downside bet

[Pop2mollys 409]

Pretty surprised how  SUNE,TERP,and GLBL being faded from open.  GLBL deep red.  Expect the unexpected in Solarland.

[odyd 1,256]

TERP should be flying. I think that stonewalling Vivint by SUNE maybe considered as a trouble with liquidity being greater than perceived. Delay on dividend could also caution TERP reaction. This should be a lot better than it is . I think it will pull out at the end of the session.