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pg6solar last won the day on March 24

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About pg6solar

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    1. pg6solar

      Solar News

      Looks like Hobo is back. Does it mean leftover CN solars investable again?
    2. pg6solar

      Solar News

      Jinko is at " do not touch" PPS zone for a while now. When they raised the last time (early last year at $18something), stock plummeted 35% after CN 5/31 bomb on its way to $7s in October. As always, it bottomed way before the market did (full two months before market had a mini crash, however Jinko never touched those levels again). I stayed away and will continue to do so. My .02cts.
    3. Exactly, Explo. CN solars should be bought when everyone is selling them (or better yet sold alredy) and sold when everyone is buying them (or better yet bought already), not the other way around. I.E.:JKS should have been bought last quarter of last year at $8-9 and sold earlier this month once it hit $20 (none can pick absolute top and bottom); just like CSIQ should have been bought for much of last half of last year at $12-13 and sold this month in $22-23. I believe we won't see irrational move in solar circa 2009/10 and 2012/13 again. So double is good enough, triple is great. Just do no think CSIQ will get to $40 (without yieldco anticipation of 2014) nor JKS will hit $30+ without Power. Those days are done. Possibility of high margins return is hard to see when all legacy projects are gone and only low margin businesses remain where volume will be everything. Brian Lee asked JKS on Friday where are they going to get $500M without an equity raise they need to expend to 15GW. I did not hear a clear answer from Jinko's side, cause there isn't.
    4. Sounds like a great advice - buy high (sell low?). So there was no reason to buy CSIQ in low teen$ for most of last year, but all the reasons to buy it in low (almost mid) $20s earlier this week? I think I need to go back to school as I'm missing all the logic behind it.
    5. Interesting, I'm planning to trim PEGI holdings by 50% if/when mid $23s will arrive and will sell out if it goes over $25. While dividend is safe (I think 5 "no"s to dividend cut mean "safe"), they still will need money to grow and secondary will certainly take place then.
    6. Thanks for reminding me of that.
    7. Jinko will ship upto 15GW in 2019!!! How much will FSLR? (Does AMZN ring the bell? How long were they profitless before they dominated? Look at hem now.) No, I do not have position in Jinko nor in any other solar (although I should have).
    8. JKS' double in 3 months (almost a triple in 4 months) combined with a massive contract with DQ announce the other day (a.k.a. expansion) smells like a secondary is coming.
    9. CSIQ is over $20...and on a huge market down day. Wow!
    10. It's unlikely any one company specific. They're all up. JKS ( a lot), DQ, even FSLR. If anything, maybe they will remove tariffs as part of the CN "deal"? Then FSLR should be down, but it's not. Sold out of all solars yesterday (too early). Unless we'll see close to recent lows, I'll be solarless going forward. (Still have large PEGI/CWEN exposure).
    11. pg6solar

      Solar News

      Yet JKS just hit a 5 months high.
    12. They were asked why their competitors (read CSIQ) reported significantly higher margins. The reply was basically "it is not sustainable". Keep in mind that CSIQ reported exactly double GMs of JKS (taking CVD out, 25% or so for CSIQ vs. 12.5% or so for JKS). How can this great margins disparity continue? JKS said they expect margins to remain stable (read mid-upper 12% not including one timers, not 15%+ they said before). This means CSIQ's manufacturing business margins have to go down eventually or sooner than later.
    13. Jinko has changed timing of its CC from 6:30 AM to 7:30AM. That and CSIQ's reported about 25% GMs on manufacturing business, I'm cautiously optimistic now for next Monday.
    14. CSIQ's manufacturing margins were outstanding. How will JKS do? I guess anything over15%GMs and JKS should run considering it was murdered over the last few months.
    15. Qu is not considering options 1) and 3). His reply was: "...A very good question. Why don't you ask the same all the other solar companies?". He clearly focused on option 2). What is the dividend FSLR, with no debt, pays? Correct, none. How about AAPL with billion$ and billion$ and billion$? 1.5%, that's it. If they want dividend, they should buy PEGI or CWEN.
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