odyd

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odyd last won the day on May 16

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About odyd

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  1. Last thought, why SPWR went up? They have all factories abroad and they are PV. There would be an outcry if they get an exemption.
  2. Let’s put things in perspective. Three times now, petitions have been filed with ITC, and two of them resulted with tariffs. Just last year, Canadian paid $144M in tariffs to the US. The solution here was to built SEA capacity, probably for the same amount, to avoid it. Guess what; the third time will not be different. Trump, renewables, imports, what is the combination here which improves odds against decisions made by moderate Obama administration? I looked at the results of JASO; we are talking about ASP below 30 cents in Q4 and Q1 in some areas. The high 20s is the cost, not a good correlation. I am not going to enter FSLR, being stubborn is my loss. I knew, in my gut, ITC will start investigating and should have been buying it. The day they filed the petition FSLR closed at 28.99. The stock will be doing very well, and tariffs will improve its business. I am not sure if outside the US company will find work.Based on ASP numbers FSLR competitiveness is already at the question. So save by the petition is the situation of this company. They will need to expand fast as it will be hard for them to cash in without capacity. We will also see a mass produced Chinese thin-film modules come in. Interestingly, a lot of Chinese unknowns started buying thin-film equipment in last year. They will take the chance, who knows, we may even see T1s outsource to some of those. Contrary to my colleague, explo, CSIQ is the only valid alternative for me. JKS will have a harder time to delivering its EPS. Its EPS is factored on the strong gross margin and margins will be tough. Abu Dhabi business, well it is a joint venture, and I do not know how Jinko gets paid at the end. On the other hand, Canadian is still able to do margins from plants, and opportunely its plant business in the US is now again benefiting and not a burden. They have business elsewhere, yes the plants. Credulous Travis sees this as a problem. They have 1GW of signed PPA, and when module prices dropped by about 50%, this is a cost-benefit against fixed PPA numbers. They have Japan which will be incredibly profitable. Finally, I think they are most likely to enter the US market with production. They own American developer. If tariffs are in, who will compete with FSLR for the business which will not have more than 2GW of S6 only by the end of 2018? They can get their modules for their own business, that is all that they need to do to become superior, exception FSLR, getting the gift. Between now and June 6th, I hope there is an opportunity to buy. Today, was a 6% day for FSLR and CSIQ the best of 3, did 0.3%, so I think the pressure is starting and as opinions set in, selling will be more of the view to save the recent highs. What to expect for the next two results? JASO’s ASP was only 1 cent lower than Q4. The cost internally dropped by 1 cent, but the blend stuck. So the ASP of $0.40 for JKS should do well for them, but they probably go to $0.39 as most of their sales would be China. I think CSIQ will not do as bad if the do $0.41. Their margin can be supported closer to 15%, as they may have bet story of cost reduction, so I hope so by half of my desired holding before cc could be in the books.
  3. As expected PEGI and FSLR are up on petition. Now not a lot pressure on CN3. Is it watering down or will deteriorate more? Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  4. That is mostly nonsense from Travis. Btw It looks like investigation had no impact. Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  5. Was the drop in the ASP in Q1 worth about the 1 cent so ASP is about $0.40? This is a good news. I noticed module prices are actually up this week on ET. I suppose most of the JA business is China so the caution is for that market and now the US being weird to predict? Any color on that from the call?
  6. JA results are a beat in the Q1 EPS, but what is happening on the H2 front?
  7. And Travis got his sails back https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/24/heres-why-the-worst-is-yet-to-come-for-canadian-so.aspx
  8. Market reaction would be telling, Nov 9, 2011, First investigation was announced by. By the 8 sessions, JKS and CSIQ lost about 30% of the value. Fast forward, second investigation Jan 22, 2014. The loss is about 13 to 17% within 3 sessions or so. Then prices come back. In fact, CSIQ hits it's ever high. Now the industry is nowhere as bad as 2011. However, 2014 was an awesome year. JASO could also make a huge impression on the market. The market reaction would be telling but may not have any negative impact that day.
  9. I do not think JASO would be the one. They would also need wafer factory and that is the most expensive thing to set up, so Hemlock option needs logistics. I think SolarWorld's plant could be bought at discount and it is a lot better business than Suniva. Suniva operated mostly as a front importing most of its products. I doubt anyone would buy that place. I understand that a lot of product would be shipped to the US, but I do not expect those to bring revenues in Q2 (too late) perhaps in Q3. I imagine they would be warehoused rather than contracted. Most of the projects buy modules upon the decision to build. I am not seeing a lot of activity and companies like NRG and NEE have bought 1GW of modules each mostly from Hanwha and SunPower early this year. There could be an increase, but such increase is limited to capacity and they sell capacity quarter ahead. which means orders would be flying now (public announcements) for Q3. I see Chinese-made modules to be moved to the US again, as they may offer still premium beyond October. I think companies may hold back until the end of the year to sell modules stored in the US with higher prices, perhaps curtailing selling now. It is risky but you got either normal flow or 20% price gained what would be sold under normal conditions.
  10. Looks like the first test is in tomorrow. The news was reported on the solar news by Jason, but here it makes interesting impact effect on CN3s. I would imagine this First Solar could get legs. I remember tariff investigation caused by the SolarWorld created a huge market impact. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-government-is-moving-forward-with-suniva-solar-trade-case
  11. @Jetmoney If you look at this set of lines, putting off to buy CSIQ could be considered playing with time one may not have a lot left. All three stocks beat CSIQ in Q4 results. CSIQ had an unexpected loss. JASO is expected to lose money this quarter. How bad has CSIQ to be to drop below 12.50? I do not think this is a matter of results per say. It is a matter of fear of debt and not selling the plants. Jetmoney I think our chance is pending on the lack of patience and of course guidance from likes of JASO and Jinko which now are all reporting before CSIQ. I suppose the Suniva case plays the role but I will bite and buy CSIQ below 12.50 if the chance comes. https://www.google.ca/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1495585927030&chddm=17986&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSE:JKS;NASDAQ:JASO;NASDAQ:FSLR&cmptdms=0;0;0&q=NASDAQ:CSIQ&ntsp=0&ei=49MkWZHELcOR2AbV1KDgAw
  12. I am not confident at all. I just think that results will be so so and the Suniva is still out there. I can stomach CSIQ at below 12.50 but of course I will be proven wrong and we will see a sky. I thought CSIQ was weaker on Friday and Monday but today was very strong. Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  13. I am worried but I hate be in a stock which gets damaged by the reaction to soft results. I would enter CSIQ at the price range but we are off by about 60 cents from it. Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  14. JKS Q1 2017 Results
  15. An investment firm that’s financing a trade complaint against cheap imported solar cells said that case would disappear if Chinese companies bought $55 million in manufacturing equipment. SQN Capital Management says Suniva Inc., a Georgia-based solar fabricator in Chapter 11 bankruptcy, owes it more than $51 million for the purchase of factory equipment it financed. The firm said it’s bankrolling the U.S. trade complaint by Suniva in a bid to help that company recover. Read it all... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...makers-shown-55-million-path-to-avoid-tariffs PV Mag calls it an extortion https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/05/22/suniva-extortion-attempt-undercuts-trade-case/