odyd
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There is flat one from Needham, and up from Roth and Baird, to complete the statements. And there is Travis, who does not mind that $1B has been written off by his two favorite companies in one-quarter, up and away. https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/22/first-solar-making-progress-on-turnaround-plan.aspx The cash FSLR speaks about can drop as much as $600M in 2017. SPWR just dropped $500M in 2016. We are talking real money not some non-cash write offs. By the time 2019 arrives FSLR will spend $390M in R&D, along with the capex and charges against not existing S5. If S6 is just good enough to compete, FSLR is no more than a struggling manufacturer at that point. Or it could be the hit of the industry.
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Credit Suisse downgraded First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) from Neutral to Underperform with a price target of $29.00 (from $30.00). Analyst Andrew Hughes comments "A pathway to $3 in earnings by 2019 has to assume unrealistic module and/or systems margins, or a module/systems mix that is counter to the direction of the business. We believe our $1.30 2019 EPS estimate is a more realistic reflection of run-rate earnings, although a pathway to $1.50 is feasible once fully ramped for a year at 3.5GW (i.e. 2020). Our $28 TP is based on 17x 2019 EPS plus net cash, discounted back at 10% and adding in consideration of FSLR's 8.3 Stake. Our 2017-18 ests come down slightly. Risks to our view are faster ramp/better cost trajectory for S6, and faster pickup in US RfP activity."
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Why pay $1.2b if you can pick the pieces in bankruptcy? Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
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I stated why total would not be buying them in my article Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
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SPWR is holding, must be the CEO of Total calling global warming a fact. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
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Finally analysts speaking about reality. Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
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I wonder what is this about https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-withdraws-Canadian-Solars-Ba2-rating--PR_362406?WT.mc_id=AM~WWFob29fRmluYW5jZTQyX1NCX1JhdGluZyBOZXdzX0FsbF9Fbmc%3d~20170221_PR_362406
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The project in Japan was signed up in 2016; If you check 10Q from Q3, it is listed for 59MW and has PPA. Tribal was also listed, and now it is gone. It is like 6 of those projects. So this is old, not a new project. Not a single one of them signed a project, exception JKS. When the cost is greater than the price, this is what is written off. Read the headlines I posted, and you already read my article on SPWR.
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When it comes to stock price, things can be just different on a personal level. One-year FSLR is 40% down, and CSIQ is 26% down, but in three months CSIQ is 44% up, and FSLR is 26% up. So far I only saw module supply deals. I did not see any new projects. You got 300MW project canceled, that will hurt FSLR. I did not see any module comments, and the 9% drop in 2017 costs from 2016, is met with 30% drop in 2017 on ASP. FSLR, SPWR will not make money in 2017, now it is about whether they lose more than they have said. FSLR reports they are going to lose as much as $600M in cash this year. SPWR will lose $125M in cash after losing $471M in 2016. SPWR can break apart by 2018. So do we have a case of CSIQ and JKS not taking any hits and surviving, over $1B in write-downs in two US companies? How likely is this? My big worry for CSIQ is that projects cost are being written off, FSLR now confirmed this and this is what SPWR did in Q4.
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Interesting this loss is bigger than the last glut time. At least last time there were plants to be built now little margins and too much competition.
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10K will be an interesting read,
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No those details make a bit more sense "First Solar also said it had been forced to write down the value of its Barilla Solar project in Texas because a slide in power prices since its construction in 2014 had hurt profitability. Shares of the company, which also reported better-than-expected profit and revenue, were up less than 1 percent at $36.62 in trading after the bell on Tuesday. First Solar raised its 2017 net sales forecast to $2.8 billion to $2.9 billion from $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion. The new revenue forecast allows for full recognition on the 250-megawatt Moapa project sale, located northeast of Las Vegas. First Solar said the more than 300-megawatt Tribal Solar project, which was planned for the Fort Mojave Indian Reservation in Arizona, would not be built. The company's contract to sell the power to California utility Southern California Edison was canceled."
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Thank you that makes sense, incredible as is, Chinese are riding Trump's waves. FSLR seem a bit shifty with their reporting. They are adding 55 to 80M restructuring cost in association with acceleration to series 6 in 2017. Taking $728M in those in one-quarter and still needing more. I am afraid they are polishing margins to positive on S4.
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Ravalos, Thank you, I understand the same dynamic. Can you try to explain the surge of value in solar shares? I feel things are insanely positive in the last couple of weeks. Is Trump effect hitting renewable energy now? Chinese one as well?
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The new revenue forecast allows for full revenue recognition on the Moapa project sale, located northeast of Las Vegas, Nevada, the company said. So I guess, the project margins are so bad they will take 1.5% of the entire year guidance? That calls for $40 tomorrow for sure now.
