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  1. Today
  2. US to install 24GW (DC) in 2020 based on 18.5GW (AC) installations. So remember when looking at installations of projects, that is usually AC based. That 120GW of projects is really 155GW DC. If 140GW is reached, that is really 181GW. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200119/1037518.shtml
  3. Yesterday
  4. That is what I figured. I have tried posting twice to this and it appears to not be taking the post. I wonder if this one does.
  5. Both JKS and CSIQ should have significant shipments to the U.S. as well. Jinko is targeting up to 4GW of shipments to the U.S. in 2020 from their last con call. The $0.23 ASP will not be for them with that level of shipments.
  6. But what if FSLR gives a juicy EPS guidance during the next con call? And what if the CN2 guide lower margins in Q1? Ever thought of that? Because it will be the Chinese selling for 23 cents in no time and not FSLR. Just picking your brain here.
  7. Last week
  8. The average leverage for the year was actually the same as Q1, i.e. 2.36x. The target is 2x (after a complete rebalance), but long-term expected average is 2.2x since the unbalance tolerance tend to slide to slightly higher leverage on average than the target. Here's a chart of the leverage over the year. Note that bigger jumps are due to cash withdrawals. Regarding your question on return, it's return on equity not return on assets, i.e. return after leverage, not before leverage. Return before leverage was 29.35% for the portfolio and 27.55% for the benchmark. Note that the return needs to be put into volatility context. The higher return than the benchmark (67.87% vs 63.27% after leverage) was achieved at lower volatility than the benchmark (20.39% vs 26.95%). Thus on a risk-adjusted return basis it was a beat year. Good result considering the very low risk due long periods.
  9. Yep ditto here, I got out in April before a trip and re-entered right before the market dropped about 750 points in August. I pulled most out of the markets because the economics of manufacturing data and the trade war fostering. I stayed mostly out for the year except for some solar trading when they hit bottoms in the 14-15 range.
  10. Yep ditto here, I got out in April before a trip and re-entered right before the market dropped about 750 points in August. I pulled most out of the markets because the economics of manufacturing data and the trade war fostering. I stayed mostly out for the year except for some solar trading when they hit bottoms in the 14-15 range.
  11. You were up nearly 50% after 4 months of the year. You had suggested that you target 2x leverage but had been levered 2.36 times in Q1. How was your leveraging and I presume the returns are based on the actual cash equivalent of the portfolio and no the 2x levered value. Is this a correct assumption? I mentioned I exited the market mostly in Early April due to travel. I stayed mostly out until August right before the pullback from 26,250 back to 25,500. I pulled out and remained 80% cash the rest of the year. My total returns were therefore mixed. depending on investment My trading account was up 29.33% for the year or roughly 50% for the year if you look at actual invested for the periods. My retirement account was up 12.5% and not invested for 1/2 the year My non trading investment account was up 19.6% for the year. while 90% out of the market for the 7 months.
  12. Now is a good example of when "time in market" pays. If those times when things go vertical to the upside are missed a lot of the long-term return will be missed out on (unless pairing by avoiding at least the same magnitude to vertical drops). It's really hard to know when the big moves come.
  13. I think the market is fully valued at this point. I believe it was Shen who the other week noted that with the run up in JKS, that it became fully valued with no upside. Based on recent downgrades on FSLR to $49, the market should drift lower as we are now 6 months or so from visibility into 2021/2022. Once the tariff protection is removed or enough capacity is in the U.S. FSLR becomes a major failure likely FSLR is looking a a double whammy as the tariffs will be down to 10% reducing incentives for power companies and most likely the solar tariffs will be removed. If a Democrat gets elected, the solar tariffs will be removed sooner rather than later.
  14. surprisingly low Chinese module exports in December you guys. Even down yoy. And this comes after a very soft November as well. http://m.solarzoom.com/article-135762-1.html Now how can we spin this? Is this a softening of the global market after we've had some bubbles bursting? I'm thinking of markets that went from boom to bust like Vietnam, Ukraine, Spain. Or is this just noise and we'll have rampant growth starting in January again? Totally confused you guys. Fact is exports are low two months in a row and pricing is at rock bottom and not recovering.
  15. The "rising tide lifting all boats" generally applies to all long biased strategies. What I have found important is to separate beta and alpha when analysing the return in order to see if the alpha is healthy. Your approach can certainly generate good alpha too. I would say that it requires more ongoing effort and is more difficult to keep long-term consistent than my approach as your alpha is generated from picking both asset and time and, I guess, less diversified than my asset picking. I have around 120 assets in my portfolio with fixed target allocation. My approach required massive upfront allocation optimization effort, but the continuous management effort (to rebalance to target when diverging beyond tolerated target deviation) is quite low.
  16. Yes, but you know that is most likely already part of their announced bookings.
  17. Like I said: a month ago CSIQ was a good buy. Now, not so much.... I am, personally, out of solars, and just waiting to see what happens during next 1-2 months. Too much of new production capacity means: 2011-2012 glut is possible again... And single digits prices for shares of our beloved solar companies is a possibility.
  18. Let' see how CSIQ's numbers look when their ASP drops below 25 cts. Did somebody say humongous OPEX? Now Moses definitely thinks he discovered the promised land. However he completely missed that FSLR decided years ago to downsize their systems to 1GW a year and focus instead on modules. As Einstein said: Two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity.
  19. And then there's this news today: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-approves-first-solar-mega-121904204.html
  20. Yeah... I told Klothilde, a month ago: Drop FSLR and buy Canadian. But she will never admit that FSLR is a loser. "Systems has lost 80%+ of its U.S. market share. And the Street has completely missed it," Barclays analyst Moses Sutton writes."
  21. Barclays double downgrade with a $49 target.
  22. Interesting. A few years ago, I read an opinion that was exactly the opposite--that person said "every minute your money is in the market, it's at risk of loss due to an unexpected event." They advocated finding a situation where an imminent upward move was likely for a given stock, riding that move for a small gain, then selling to take that small profit. Then go look for another such situation--possibly a continuation with the same stock, but not necessarily. The rationale is to be in any given stock only for a short period of time, to avoid a huge loss when unexpected news hits, unless you're unlucky enough to have such news hit while you're in your short trading window with that stock. Having suffered several such "unexpected events" in my 10-year experiment with buy-and-hold, I found his logic compelling, and constructed my current frequent-trading-of-small-lots-for-small-gains approach from it. And that approach worked very well last year (return well over 100%, even with the collapse in November). Interesting to hear that a quite different (if not exact opposite) approach also produced excellent results. Seems to indicate my success wasn't necessarily due to anything superior in my approach--perhaps more of a "rising tide lifting all boats?"
  23. Duke energy looking to add a service charge of $1.10 to $2.39/MW hr for grid connected ground mount systems. https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2020/01/14/why-new-solar-bids-in-the-carolinas-are-facing.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
  24. MVA

    Beyond Solar

    Thank you for your opinion!
  25. Thanks. My strategy now is more about maximizing "time in market" than trying "timing the market" so I don't try to have a view of where the market is going. The portfolio strategy is to be setup to handle all scenarios in the best way to maximize long-term return without assumptions about future direction other than that the mean reversion force of the market will eventually kick in. My view now is that we are quite close to mean in a longer time perspective so there is no bias to either side (up or down) for a large mean reversion risk in my view.
  26. dydo

    Beyond Solar

    Portola is purely the revenue growth story. If think of the revenue of $100M in 2019, the PE is about 10. In my opinion there is a potential for recovery beyond 20 but patience would be advisable. Too many shortsellers are crowding the stock. I do not own it for sometime. I am to engaged elsewhere and do not have cash. If I did I likely would buy to see where it goes. Proceed with caution
  27. Thin film technology is slowly dying. Will FSLR survive? I don't think so... 😞 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/01/14/hard-times-for-pv-thin-film-module-makers-as-crystalsol-and-calyxo-file-for-insolvency/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
  28. Awesome! Great Results! I was afraid of Trump policy and with trade war with China, thus did not fully invest in the market, while you fully invested with some leverage. Good job with the strategy. What do you see the market for year 2020 ahead?
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