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  1. Yesterday
  2. Exactly! When you're fully invested in a stock, and it starts to decline (but no negative news has come out--yet), how do you know it's the beginning of a collapse vs. a head fake? Especially in stocks as volatile as our solars? I find this strategy actually lets me sleep much better at night, knowing the damage from even a major market collapse would be smaller than the buying opportunity that would present--and that I would have the buying power to take advantage of that opportunity. When my stocks are at their highs, I actually find myself wishing for them to pull back a little, so I can justify increasing my exposure to them (chuckle)….
  3. Thanks for describing your approach. Solar stock behaviours are quite suitable for trading strategies (they have not worked well as investments the last decade as we all know). Your strategy is a bit similar to the one I used when I was focused on solar. I called it FARS = Frequent Aggressive Rebalancing Strategy. Just to translate your tactics to rules you can view it as a rebalancing strategic between the asset class cash and the asset class equities, but it is very flexible, i.e. you try to increase equity allocation when price of equities go down and vice versa. This is more risky than normal rebalancing strategy but you compensate that by having a large target neutral cash allocation. This strategy can during most periods (e.g. 2013, 2017 2019) be very lucrative for trading solar stocks. During other periods (2015, 2016, 2018) it can be a bit distressing I think, i.e. the choppy net moves up are very lucrative and the choppy moves down are distressful. One thing that can save you is the part where you exit on the way down to look for stabilization. I was never good at that part.
  4. Last week
  5. So the subsidy is going to be $216M rather than an expected $252M? A $36M drop doesn't seem to be all that significant.
  6. China slashing PV subsidies in 2020 by 50% to 1.5B RMB. Everybody expected 1.75B RMB. Horrible. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-23/china-aims-to-halve-subsidy-budget-for-new-solar-plants-in-2020
  7. Yes, that is correct--or at least no worse than the same risk. Here's how I implement that: I try to have only a SMALL position in a stock near its high. If it pulls back a little, but there is no negative news for the stock, I'll buy another small position. Ditto one more time--then if it goes down for a fourth day, I stop buying until I see the price stabilize and start to come back a little. Our solars are volatile enough that they'll usually bounce back and forth between small losses and small gains in any series of 3 consecutive trading days. Say the third position I bought (the one at the lowest price) goes back up a bit. I'll sell it and take that profit. If the stock now continues to rise, I still have the first and second positions in play. If it drops again, I'll rebuy that third position, but again stop there. If now the stock drops dramatically, of course I have losses in those 3 small positions--but I DON'T have the loss I would have if I had taken a full position. Which means I have buying power if and when I determine it's (reasonably) safe to re-enter the stock. And when I do, it's with more small positions, trading them to gradually take small profits until the stock reaches its prior level--when I still have those 3 original positions, which now come into play again. It does require a fair amount of initial investment capital to be able to establish that number of small positions in a number of stocks (I use about 5 or 6)--but then again, when I read you have some 120 assets in your approach, I'm quite sure my account is much smaller than yours. And I use margin--I find my gains usually more than outpace the margin interest I pay (which is tax-deductible from my gains). Of course, when using margin it's hugely important to avoid catastrophic losses leading to margin calls, which is another reason I developed this strategy. So by not owning much of a stock near its highs, but owning more and more of it at lower levels at a time when there is no negative news out about the stock, I've convinced myself that the more of a stock I own, the smaller the short-term risk.
  8. Pete, taking profits makes sense and is straight forward, but for me the difficulty in strategy design is to know how to redeploy that cash. I think that is what determines the success of the strategy. Basically you want to redeploy it at less risk (or rather higher risk adjusted expected return) than you exited at, right?
  9. One has to be very careful with generalizations. You cannot just simply state that "the Chinese" are selling at cash cost. While this applies to many players in many sectors of the value chain Longi is definitely making good cash with mono wafers. Coincidentally in some of my previous analysis I identified the mono wafer step as pretty much the last bastion where profits are currently made. However I think this may change quickly as capacity expansion is likely to wipe out any excess profits here as well over the next months. Very sad if you don't have any protected market. 😞
  10. I don't understand, how can that be if as some profess, the prices are being sold at cash cost? I mean Q2 operating income was higher than Q1 and Q3 was higher than Q2? Those facts just don't jive, you can't be profitable and have operating income climbing if your selling at cash costs.
  11. LONGi guides doubling of net profits to new record for 2019 https://www.pv-tech.org/news/longi-guides-doubling-of-net-profits-to-new-record-for-2019
  12. Jinko losing in Qatar: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/01/20/total-and-marubeni-win-qatars-800-mw-solar-tender/ Winning bid at $0.66/W, just sayn'.
  13. Yes, most gains come from just a few trading days--but as you note, so do most losses. So that "pairing to avoid losses" you mention is also a critical aspect. And as you say, it's almost impossible to know when those big moves come. So I am willing to accept missing out on the big gains, if I can also avoid the big losses (since in the past those losses have always more than wiped out my gains), and just be happy taking small gains consistently (even in times when other strategies yield larger gains), and letting time work in my favor. So far, that's worked for me--I did take some losses in that November collapse, but not nearly as much as I would have under my earlier strategy, and I've already recovered them again almost completely, thus preserving my gains for the year overall (instead of losing them all, which I most likely would have done under my earlier strategy). But while the long-term trend still should be solidly upward, this year looks like it could be quite choppy in solarland, so I have to stay nimble and not get sucked into positions that are too large when prices are high (which is always a temptation when prices are going up quickly).
  14. That's still quite a flurry there right at the end of the year. It shows the Chinese CAN execute large numbers in a short period of time if they want to. Now the question becomes, how much that was planned but not executed last year gets carried over into this year, instead of cancelled outright. And that seems to be an open question. As the article notes, estimates for China next year are from 20 GW to 40 GW. That's quite a difference. The rest of the world, however, seems to be moving full speed ahead, so we're no longer hostage to Chinese governmental policy. They can be a hindrance, or icing on the cake, but they no longer dictate our fate.
  15. Terrific! No wonder module prices are at all time highs!
  16. MVA

    Solar News

    China added 12 GW of solar last month for 30 GW annual figure https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/01/20/china-added-12-gw-of-solar-last-month-for-30-gw-annual-figure/
  17. Oh it would be great if we had been underestimating the market by 30% but I'm sure that's not the case. AC wattage is commonly used in some countries when dealing with individual projects where the peak AC wattage at the interconnection point is more important for grid integration purposes than the DC nameplate rating of the modules. When looking at overall market installation figures the DC nameplate rating is usually applied. I suspect EIA throws out an AC figure because their database is an aggregation of AC project power ratings reported to the grid operators. Check out the SEIA / WM U.S. market reports to see for yourself whether they use AC or DC: https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2019-q4
  18. China extending tariffs on U.S. and Korean polysilicon: https://renewablesnow.com/news/china-extends-duties-on-us-korean-solar-polysilicon-for-5-years-684065/
  19. US to install 24GW (DC) in 2020 based on 18.5GW (AC) installations. So remember when looking at installations of projects, that is usually AC based. That 120GW of projects is really 155GW DC. If 140GW is reached, that is really 181GW. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200119/1037518.shtml
  20. That is what I figured. I have tried posting twice to this and it appears to not be taking the post. I wonder if this one does.
  21. Both JKS and CSIQ should have significant shipments to the U.S. as well. Jinko is targeting up to 4GW of shipments to the U.S. in 2020 from their last con call. The $0.23 ASP will not be for them with that level of shipments.
  22. But what if FSLR gives a juicy EPS guidance during the next con call? And what if the CN2 guide lower margins in Q1? Ever thought of that? Because it will be the Chinese selling for 23 cents in no time and not FSLR. Just picking your brain here.
  23. The average leverage for the year was actually the same as Q1, i.e. 2.36x. The target is 2x (after a complete rebalance), but long-term expected average is 2.2x since the unbalance tolerance tend to slide to slightly higher leverage on average than the target. Here's a chart of the leverage over the year. Note that bigger jumps are due to cash withdrawals. Regarding your question on return, it's return on equity not return on assets, i.e. return after leverage, not before leverage. Return before leverage was 29.35% for the portfolio and 27.55% for the benchmark. Note that the return needs to be put into volatility context. The higher return than the benchmark (67.87% vs 63.27% after leverage) was achieved at lower volatility than the benchmark (20.39% vs 26.95%). Thus on a risk-adjusted return basis it was a beat year. Good result considering the very low risk due long periods.
  24. Yep ditto here, I got out in April before a trip and re-entered right before the market dropped about 750 points in August. I pulled most out of the markets because the economics of manufacturing data and the trade war fostering. I stayed mostly out for the year except for some solar trading when they hit bottoms in the 14-15 range.
  25. Yep ditto here, I got out in April before a trip and re-entered right before the market dropped about 750 points in August. I pulled most out of the markets because the economics of manufacturing data and the trade war fostering. I stayed mostly out for the year except for some solar trading when they hit bottoms in the 14-15 range.
  26. You were up nearly 50% after 4 months of the year. You had suggested that you target 2x leverage but had been levered 2.36 times in Q1. How was your leveraging and I presume the returns are based on the actual cash equivalent of the portfolio and no the 2x levered value. Is this a correct assumption? I mentioned I exited the market mostly in Early April due to travel. I stayed mostly out until August right before the pullback from 26,250 back to 25,500. I pulled out and remained 80% cash the rest of the year. My total returns were therefore mixed. depending on investment My trading account was up 29.33% for the year or roughly 50% for the year if you look at actual invested for the periods. My retirement account was up 12.5% and not invested for 1/2 the year My non trading investment account was up 19.6% for the year. while 90% out of the market for the 7 months.
  27. Now is a good example of when "time in market" pays. If those times when things go vertical to the upside are missed a lot of the long-term return will be missed out on (unless pairing by avoiding at least the same magnitude to vertical drops). It's really hard to know when the big moves come.
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