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  2. Trading Solars

    I think you are mixing corporate debt with project debt I would like to see your math.
  3. Trading Solars

    I come to a different conclusion in book values and share price. If one takes project asset valuation less accrued debt. CAFD has nearly $1B in asset valuation in this instance vs CSIQ having near $300M in out of pocket investments for their projects.
  4. Beyond Solar

    Last post on ARCI--with price at ~$1.25/sh P/E = 1.5 Makes even Chinese solars look high P/E!
  5. Trading Solars

    I am closely aligned with a few private companies. They could easily go public at nine-figure valuations, but the thought of being public companies is simply abhorrent to their management.
  6. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    I had speculated it was the Saudis buying up shares of Jinko during the recent bursts, but turns out it was mostly China. The Guolao Investments initiated that 7% ownership position last quarter of about 2.3 million shares and now J&P (China) Capital initiated a position of 1,140,953 shares. Blackrock added 778,862 as well.
  7. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Thanks a lot for posting this.
  8. JA Solar (JASO)

    JASO's higher than CSIQ ASP indicates they sold mono- PERC modules. Cells sold could have been mono cells as well. CSIQ with its 2GW wafer only erected by Q2 sold legacy modules, transitioning to Q4's 4GW wafer. They buy cells and will buy least of them by Q1, but they will enter 2018 with an imbalance of 2.5GW. We should know of their plans upon Q4 results if black silicon is added or will they add mono. Those actions will also be taken after Suniva activity is resolved.
  9. JA Solar (JASO)

    I used the information given in their cc and numbers built in their results. If you multiply modules by 0.38 average you are left with the amount which divided by cell shipment gives the price of $0.37 per cell watt. If you multiply modules by the cost of $0.31 you end up $0.60 per watt in the same for a cell. I can only assume there are other factors, but I cannot think of tariffs, they should not pay them. The problem is, of course, the cost. They are nowhere near the cost of $0.31, they are probably using OEM, and yes it does appear to be a very lucrative cell sale which could be selling to the third party associate, like Jinglong. Just for exercise if you move the cost to $0.334 you end up in the place that cell sold have a lower cost of about $0.28. The GM is also close to 13%. They said it was a blended cost, so I am not sure.
  10. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    JKS reports on September 6th. CC at 7:30AM. I agree with elsewhere posted opinion that (especially based on what JASO posted yesterday) JKS will have a blowout Q2 and might have needed extra "accounting" time.
  11. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    The 25 PT from 20 was correct. StreetInsider got it wrong. Here is the Credit Suisse analysis of their new JKS target. It's quite a lengthy discussion. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8Pvxs0m3ZktQ2dFREFwWDlXUHc/view?usp=sharing
  12. JA Solar (JASO)

    You wrote they have a -38%GM on cells. (0.6 cost & 0.37 ASP for cells) If not a typo, then why? Selling ancient inventory?
  13. Trading Solars

    Analysts have been really focused on the effect of Suniva to supply & demand. Lots of questions in Q1 about the boost in demand, and now in Q2 about the decline in demand re: Suniva. I have not seen an analyst compare solar plant values in a similar way to Robert's most recently yieldco article on SA.
  14. First Solar (FSLR)

    First Solar sold 280MW California Flats project, surely CSIQ standing still tactic raises few eyebrows. Especially Capital Dynamics is a Swiss Asset Company. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/08/22/first-solar-sells-another-280-mw-ac-solar-project/
  15. JA Solar (JASO)

    According to JASO, their ASP was $0.38 and their cost was $0.31, that is 18.4% GM, how did they end up with 12.9% GM? If I use this math, it appears that cells sold at 0.37 per watt at the cost of 0.60. JASO was always the hardest to figure out, but in the past, at least they provided a percentage of revenue breakdown by a module and a cell.
  16. Trading Solars

    Hi, Alex, it has been a long time. I share your view on cheap CSIQ. I look at the CAFD, and the stock is worth about $1.1B based on the solar plant value of $1.96 per watt, not including debt. They have 569MWac and CSIQ owns 969MWac globally. the stock is worth $860M and the company produces roughly $2.8B in sales a year just from operations of selling modules. Apparently selling US solar plants in Q1 deprives the company of $1B in value according to an analyst from Barclay. That is $16 off the stock price for late sale. Some things just do not make a lot of sense.
  17. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    As per streetinsider Credit Suisse downgraded JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE: JKS) from Outperform to Neutral with a price target of $20.00 (from $25.00). Fly reports price from $20 to $25. Earnings increase would support move up in price. Analyst Maheep Mandloi raises estimates as demand improves and product shifts, however the downgrade comes as as the current price does not yet factor in oversupply in 2018+. Counter to market expectations, per the firm's proprietary model poly/wafer capacity for Tier-1 will be oversupplied by 5 10 GW in 2018 and 2019, as US demand declines in 2018 (due to demand pull-in into 2017) and as manufacturing capacity increases. Increase 2017/18/19 EPS to $2.30/$3.56/$4.39 (vs street $1.51/$2.75/$3.02)
  18. Yesterday
  19. Solar News

    Good to see some sense.
  20. Solar News

    Trump rejects cry for help from coal execs http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/22/investing/coal-rescue-trump-murray-energy/index.html Hope this will spark some rally of our solar stocks.
  21. Trading Solars

    CS downgraded JKS today from Outperform to neutral. However the PT went from $20 to $25. They boosted their 2017 EPS to 2.30. The top P/E they imagine is an 8x multiple, on down to 5x. Blue sky 34, base case 25, grey sky 4 PTs. I would post the whole PDF, which has their thinking well detailed, but I have a ridiculous .2MB file upload max size. Maybe I'll upload the old Atari Combat game instead.
  22. Trading Solars

    $15 CSIQ looks amazingly cheap vs its peers. Unfortunately it means nothing in terms of share price. While JKS made a sizable rally from 17 to 29 CSIQ made almost nothing. I do not see too much downside from 15 unless a general market crashes. But a general market today consists almost out of FANG and related stocks (they are responsible for 75% of general market moves) i.e. totally under control.
  23. Trading Solars

    Back in CSIQ at 15.11. Fully loaded, looking for a small bounce here, won't be holding these shares long. Looking to unload at 15.50 unless it can break through easily and then I'll be dumping around 15.8x.
  24. Trading Solars

    Sour reaction to great reports is not a good omen. I remember second half of 2010 and some analysts said "things can't get much better than this" when things looked brighter than ever and next year showed massive shipment growth while PPS faded before falling off a cliff. Mr Market is sensing this party is peaking and moving on..?
  25. Trading Solars

    Exactly why Trina left, JA wants to and can be taken out on a cheap, and Jinko will surely follow too.
  26. Trading Solars

    It never ceases to amaze me how little the market cares about the numbers individual (Chinese solar) companies put up--at least when they are good...
  27. JA Solar (JASO)

    transcript is out: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4101011-ja-solar-holdings-jaso-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript loved the exchange between Herman and Gordo: Gordo: "Could we see 28% decline in the second half in ASPs, second half to define as June to December?" Herman Zhao: "I think the answer is very clear. The answer to that question is no."
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