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  1. Today
  2. Last thought, why SPWR went up? They have all factories abroad and they are PV. There would be an outcry if they get an exemption.
  3. Let’s put things in perspective. Three times now, petitions have been filed with ITC, and two of them resulted with tariffs. Just last year, Canadian paid $144M in tariffs to the US. The solution here was to built SEA capacity, probably for the same amount, to avoid it. Guess what; the third time will not be different. Trump, renewables, imports, what is the combination here which improves odds against decisions made by moderate Obama administration? I looked at the results of JASO; we are talking about ASP below 30 cents in Q4 and Q1 in some areas. The high 20s is the cost, not a good correlation. I am not going to enter FSLR, being stubborn is my loss. I knew, in my gut, ITC will start investigating and should have been buying it. The day they filed the petition FSLR closed at 28.99. The stock will be doing very well, and tariffs will improve its business. I am not sure if outside the US company will find work.Based on ASP numbers FSLR competitiveness is already at the question. So save by the petition is the situation of this company. They will need to expand fast as it will be hard for them to cash in without capacity. We will also see a mass produced Chinese thin-film modules come in. Interestingly, a lot of Chinese unknowns started buying thin-film equipment in last year. They will take the chance, who knows, we may even see T1s outsource to some of those. Contrary to my colleague, explo, CSIQ is the only valid alternative for me. JKS will have a harder time to delivering its EPS. Its EPS is factored on the strong gross margin and margins will be tough. Abu Dhabi business, well it is a joint venture, and I do not know how Jinko gets paid at the end. On the other hand, Canadian is still able to do margins from plants, and opportunely its plant business in the US is now again benefiting and not a burden. They have business elsewhere, yes the plants. Credulous Travis sees this as a problem. They have 1GW of signed PPA, and when module prices dropped by about 50%, this is a cost-benefit against fixed PPA numbers. They have Japan which will be incredibly profitable. Finally, I think they are most likely to enter the US market with production. They own American developer. If tariffs are in, who will compete with FSLR for the business which will not have more than 2GW of S6 only by the end of 2018? They can get their modules for their own business, that is all that they need to do to become superior, exception FSLR, getting the gift. Between now and June 6th, I hope there is an opportunity to buy. Today, was a 6% day for FSLR and CSIQ the best of 3, did 0.3%, so I think the pressure is starting and as opinions set in, selling will be more of the view to save the recent highs. What to expect for the next two results? JASO’s ASP was only 1 cent lower than Q4. The cost internally dropped by 1 cent, but the blend stuck. So the ASP of $0.40 for JKS should do well for them, but they probably go to $0.39 as most of their sales would be China. I think CSIQ will not do as bad if the do $0.41. Their margin can be supported closer to 15%, as they may have bet story of cost reduction, so I hope so by half of my desired holding before cc could be in the books.
  4. Yesterday
  5. I don't think anything would come of it in a sane environment. So who knows. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk
  6. I'd like to personally kick Travis' butt. Man to man, fists. Maybe hair pulling too. My whole trip down the rabbit whole started with excellent advice to buy First Solar. In July 2016! Thanks Travis!
  7. Does anyone pay attention to HQCL numbers? I guess not. Last time JASO surprised it was up one day, then down a couple days, then up up & away. Almost 2 weeks until CSIQ & JKS... OPEC meeting tomorrow. The good news (extend cuts) seems priced in. Some say what is needed is deeper cuts, but it seems unlikely Saudi's could convince others of this -- who knows though. FSLR is up because of petition + Series 6. Both seem dreamy. Who here thinks something will come of this petition?
  8. As expected PEGI and FSLR are up on petition. Now not a lot pressure on CN3. Is it watering down or will deteriorate more? Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  9. Travis is good at spewing protectionist nonsense. Trade case... how do you all feel it'll play out? I like to think a settlement will be offered up and none of this will matter. But we've got an ignorant President who would love this fossil fuel handout to crush solar and take a whack at China at the same time. Not to mention, he'll likely pitch this as protecting American businesses, if in fact it even grabs any headlines. And yes, I'm bypassing the ITC decision, because I figure they'll just go along with it, regardless of the extortion attempt or actual merit of the case. So this is already headed to Trump in my mind. On the flip side, may be a good negotiation point for Trump if he can get some leverage to send them some more farm animals or some gas or what have you. It's not like the US solar industry is going to thrive if this passes, in fact we all know how much damage it will do. And a big F U to Suniva for considering the environment at a time when we have a President actively trying to trash it. How'd that work out for SolarWorld? It's no way to create a successful business. Let it go, Suniva. All you're doing is advancing climate change and potentially dramatically reducing our work over the next decade to clean things up. Other things to consider in a Trump negotiation is what will have happened between now and then with North Korea and how our relationship with China has evolved as a result of that nonsense. Trump is only going to sign something that benefits him. To me, it would benefit him to NOT sign this. It would hurt China relations more, it would further tick off us crazy tree huggers and also probably a few Republicans as well who support free trade and clean energy. But in Trump's tiny mind, maybe all he can see and here is Wilbur Ross or Carl Icahn or whomever in his ear talking about natural gas and profits to be had there. Coal I suspect will be a footnote by the time he sees this in the argument for signing it, but I guess he can toss that feather in his cap as well. I'm hoping for a settlement. Or someone buy up this company and be done with it, if in fact that would cancel this complaint. Can't imagine SolarWorld has the cash to fight another useless trade case, so not worried about them picking up the baton. I don't think its clear cut that he will or won't sign this. I think there are a lot of moving parts that will be moving all summer in regards to our relationship with China that will affect it. So to buy or sell on the news today is probably a bad idea. And who knows, maybe we'll have Pence by then anyway, not that he's a lot better for climate and renewables, but perhaps he could see the value in not fighting with China over this while keeping some peace here at home too.
  10. Buying JASO, feeling confident Suniva won't pan out... gotta hand it to you guys or gals, you've got guts. As for me, I'm holding my breath today.
  11. That is mostly nonsense from Travis. Btw It looks like investigation had no impact. Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  12. Wow, fslr is on tear, up almost 50% from the low. Explo does have Midas touches lately. First, it was fslr. Then it was dq and jks. Now, he is buying jaso. Maybe, I should follow with some jaso instead of csiq.
  13. My opinion (a pure speculation) on 201: there's zero chance Trump will sign anything agains China, even if ITC will recommend so (also unlikely IMO). If there will be a big PPS drop in August after very good Q2 reported for all, with uncertainty for Q3 and further, due to yet unresolved 201 = big buying opportunity (as was August of 2015).
  14. That is a very dire prognostication for csiq. How much of that is the exaggeration? This definitely gives me pause. This combined with explo dislike, may prevent me from buying it back until lower prices. I might look into JKS alternative instead.
  15. 1. Per JASO, music is not stopping but will slow down in H2. 2. They refused (when asked) to provide GMs for China and India, but stated that China's current GMs are much higher. 3. ASPs late Q4 and early Q1 next year are high .20s(!!!) in India and (some countries of) South America. With internal costs of maybe high .20s by year end, if they ship anything to those regions - all will be for losses. 4. Q2 will be good (for all I assume) mostly due to China, after which time China will drop. 5. Kept full year guidance. 6. No stock buybacks. No capital market raises. Nothing new on privatization. In short, a typical JA report.
  16. That's good news. Maybe the minor drop in ASP was due to JASO being "fully booked" for the first part of the year? I am pretty sure it was JASO that said that. You prever ET over pvinsights? pvinsights does not show any gain in module price (though it is the first time there is no drop)
  17. Was the drop in the ASP in Q1 worth about the 1 cent so ASP is about $0.40? This is a good news. I noticed module prices are actually up this week on ET. I suppose most of the JA business is China so the caution is for that market and now the US being weird to predict? Any color on that from the call?
  18. JA results are a beat in the Q1 EPS, but what is happening on the H2 front?
  19. And Travis got his sails back
  20. I don't think JASO would consider US operations as solution to Hemlock contract, but they may very well be the CN3 most inclined to set up cell manufacturing in US to exploit the cell import "ban" there as cell is their thing. They are number one in the world on cells. This part they own and don't like to source and thus need to diversify manufacturing themselves. And I think they have been considering setting up US operation before for such cell manufacturing footprint diversification to reduce risk of their cells not having access to major PV markets. Importing wafers from their Vietnamese wafer factory, importing Hemlock poly from US, to a US cell factory should be at less risk in future than importing GCL wafers from China to a US cell factory. So there might still be some Hemlock related rationale for deciding on US cell manufacturing for JASO.
  21. While I would like to buy both jks and csiq back at lower prices, I am saddened by this news. This will hold back the progress in solar proliferation which could benefit everyone and save our planet. I hope nothing will come of it and this is just a temporary roadblock.
  22. Market reaction would be telling, Nov 9, 2011, First investigation was announced by. By the 8 sessions, JKS and CSIQ lost about 30% of the value. Fast forward, second investigation Jan 22, 2014. The loss is about 13 to 17% within 3 sessions or so. Then prices come back. In fact, CSIQ hits it's ever high. Now the industry is nowhere as bad as 2011. However, 2014 was an awesome year. JASO could also make a huge impression on the market. The market reaction would be telling but may not have any negative impact that day.
  23. I do not think JASO would be the one. They would also need wafer factory and that is the most expensive thing to set up, so Hemlock option needs logistics. I think SolarWorld's plant could be bought at discount and it is a lot better business than Suniva. Suniva operated mostly as a front importing most of its products. I doubt anyone would buy that place. I understand that a lot of product would be shipped to the US, but I do not expect those to bring revenues in Q2 (too late) perhaps in Q3. I imagine they would be warehoused rather than contracted. Most of the projects buy modules upon the decision to build. I am not seeing a lot of activity and companies like NRG and NEE have bought 1GW of modules each mostly from Hanwha and SunPower early this year. There could be an increase, but such increase is limited to capacity and they sell capacity quarter ahead. which means orders would be flying now (public announcements) for Q3. I see Chinese-made modules to be moved to the US again, as they may offer still premium beyond October. I think companies may hold back until the end of the year to sell modules stored in the US with higher prices, perhaps curtailing selling now. It is risky but you got either normal flow or 20% price gained what would be sold under normal conditions.
  24. Robert, I posted elsewhere that I think JASO should consider purchasing Suniva and taking advantage if the Hemlock poly they are locked in to. A CN purchasing Suniva and setting up operations in US could stave off the petition and whichever CN did this would immediately trade at a higher multiple due to US presence. They would likely be able to issue shares at a higher SP to pay for setting up. In particular since JASO has to buy from Hemlock quarterly until 2026 they could avoid the China tariff on US poly by using the poly in the US. If the petition goes through I think CNs have to consider setting up in US anyway, why not do it now? Aside from that, does anyone think that now there will be a rush to buy CN panels ahead of September? If so, will this prop up CN share prices through 2017? Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk
  25. Looks like the first test is in tomorrow. The news was reported on the solar news by Jason, but here it makes interesting impact effect on CN3s. I would imagine this First Solar could get legs. I remember tariff investigation caused by the SolarWorld created a huge market impact.
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