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explo

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explo last won the day on January 16

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About explo

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    Europe

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  1. The "rising tide lifting all boats" generally applies to all long biased strategies. What I have found important is to separate beta and alpha when analysing the return in order to see if the alpha is healthy. Your approach can certainly generate good alpha too. I would say that it requires more ongoing effort and is more difficult to keep long-term consistent than my approach as your alpha is generated from picking both asset and time and, I guess, less diversified than my asset picking. I have around 120 assets in my portfolio with fixed target allocation. My approach required massive upfront allocation optimization effort, but the continuous management effort (to rebalance to target when diverging beyond tolerated target deviation) is quite low.
  2. Thanks. My strategy now is more about maximizing "time in market" than trying "timing the market" so I don't try to have a view of where the market is going. The portfolio strategy is to be setup to handle all scenarios in the best way to maximize long-term return without assumptions about future direction other than that the mean reversion force of the market will eventually kick in. My view now is that we are quite close to mean in a longer time perspective so there is no bias to either side (up or down) for a large mean reversion risk in my view.
  3. Thanks Jet. Here are some further details: Income Statement Asset Value Growth: 71.76% Dividends: 2.93% ---------------------------------------- Fees: -1.80% Interest: -3.75% Tax: -1.27% ==================== Result: 67.87%
  4. 2019 AR Goal Financial independence by 2030 Objective 15% annual return @ 25% volatility Strategy Rebalance optimal allocation Tactic Buy the dips and hold the rips Allocation Return Contribution Attribution
  5. explo

    Solar News

    Didn't CSIQ invest heavily in saws (diamond wire ones to be specific) when the finally integrated upstream a few years back? I think they still remained averse to invest heavily in ingot tech. Different to JKS and YGE (who overpaid for P-type multi and N-type mono ingot tech).
  6. Above all he pushed TSL post financial crises (maybe before and during too, that was before my time) and if I remember correctly "bashed" CSIQ (as much as he would bash anything) post its 2009 accounting scandal. His view on LDK was more opportunistic if I remember correctly (as a previous LDK and then SOL pusher myself). Mostly he was right. Of the many solars that are no longer listed TSL at least produced some return for shareholders.
  7. Here's the ugly picture of the week:
  8. It is losing. I had another management cost distorting the week as a hedge fund which is my largest investment is closing (similar to a buyout for stocks) so I had to reoptimize and reallocate a lot of captial. I put in around 40 orders during the weekend. It’s not a good time when the market moves a lot. The buys filled on Monday, but the sells have not filled yet. I can update when the week is final as it is the first sign of negative action this year. Congrats on good cash allocation timing.
  9. Breached 50% the last day of April and marked the third double digit monthly return this year (March was mid single digits). Incredible point of time for the launch of the new less risk averse strategy..
  10. I think the real issue with FSLR is its risk concentration: Rely on US market dominated revenues Rely on temporary competition protection in US market Rely on temporary subsidies in US market Rely on competitive success of narrow field of CdTe manufacturing equipment development Rely on success of narrow field of rare Tellurium production Rely on continued wide market acceptance of toxic Cadmium So far there's been volatile reward for these risk bets. When one has failed another has delivered. It would seem prudent to spread bets.
  11. Approaching 50% return less than 4 months into the year. Nothing special in solar world, but this time my capital preservation strategy is better. After a long time of focus on asset allocation optimization and verification of Alpha and Beta return attribution I've recently focused more on return contribution analysis in order to verify that the allocation does not contain any poor contributors due to flawed strategy or tactic. I think that this continuous qualification of the strategy and tactic is key to long-term performance success. --- Goal Financial independence by 2030 Objective 15% annual return @ 25% volatility Strategy Rebalance optimal allocation Tactic Buy the dips and hold the rips Allocation Return
  12. Prudent. Same here. I stand at 42.6%. I fear what will happen when the market goes south. The market has done nothing but going up since I increased my risk allocation a few months ago so I have no indication on what the behaviour will for a similar volatility spike as we saw in December.
  13. My increased Health Care exposure took some beating last week. The previous exposure dominator Consumer Discretionary continues to soar. The new dominator IT is not disappointing.
  14. explo

    Solar News

    I haven't read all articles on demand speculation, but following this industry for 10 years I've seen that low price on money is usually boosting demand. FED and ECB pivot to economy accommodation will make those spreadsheets on solar IRR look more attractive. Who's making money on the demand is then decided by the forex moves. Keep your cost in weak currencies and sales in the strong ones. Note that the places where money is cheap can see its currency strength effected by this. Sure what's going on in the industry and at its companies matters too 😉
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