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explo last won the day on August 1

explo had the most liked content!

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About explo

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    18%/9% Alpha/Beta Risk

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  1. explo

    Trading Strategy

    Seeing clearly how massive diversification alters the portfolio properties I've restarted the portfolio with its inception being August 1 2018 (previous inception was January 1 2016). There are still some incomplete fund transactions. The major one is sale of a previously over allocated very volatile CTA fund. It will be sold next month. If it can behave until then (not influence the fund basket volatility too much) the inception point will hold in terms of correctly reflecting the start of the new massive diversification strategy. I can't believe it took me 20 years of investing to learn what everyone was teaching - risk diversification is the free lunch of investing and it is stupid to not exploit it. Success yet to be proven..
  2. explo

    Trading Strategy

    The TAN divergence became a bit more confirmed this week:
  3. explo

    Beyond Solar

    I'm happy to announce that my new diversified strategy allows me to hold young gun stocks like SQ. It's now one of my 102 stocks. At first I leveraged and became petrified, then I balanced and became uncertain, finally I diversified and became tranquil. Expect a more boring explo from now on.
  4. explo

    Trading Strategy

    I imagine that's a much larger (legal) threshold to climb. It sure seems like easy money to raise a billion investment for a fund and take 2% of it every year and 20% of its return above index. There must be some effort to it. I'll be happy with my own wealth growth if the strategy works. Then there's no need for a chunk of others.
  5. explo

    Trading Strategy

    Yes. It feels more like a one-man fund than a portfolio now with the very long list of assets. It has taken a lot of time and energy this year, but the idea is that after initial allocation the management should not be to much effort (it would be very effortless without the scale of assets). Even the initial effort only analyzed histoical assets returns, not their fundmentals. The analyzis is quite automated and the opimization based on the analysis is semi-automated once all the data to analyze has been prepared and all the analysis components designed and implemented. It will need many years to conclude if successful or not, but the result data that I’ve gathered since start of 2016 (when I began balancing work) might change with this much higher degree of diversification.
  6. explo

    Trading Strategy

    I've gotten to the execution phase after a similar even more tedious process for funds. The asset allocation is now finalized and I bought over 100 different stocks on NYSE and Nasdaq today. There is no turning back from this. My stock basket is now finished. The funds are next - 70 of them have been allocated. Some of them will have delayed transactions.
  7. explo

    Daqo (DQ)

    How about a potential Tellurium bottleneck in solar trade war times when scaling up? It seems China stands for two thirds of the world's Tellurium production and one third of the US imports. https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/selenium/mcs-2018-tellu.pdf
  8. explo

    Daqo (DQ)

    Agree. People always get exuberant / pumpy when thing are flying high. FSLR was lovely in the 80's and a dog in the 20's (I had the complete contrary view in term of its short-term percentage appreciation potential at those times). CSIQ was heading for triple digits when it was in the 40's while I like it much better in the low 20's than the high 30's back then. These stocks cycle. There is not a single established growth stock in this industry yet. It's a buy low sell high space.
  9. explo

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    SC, from a short-term (ER season) trading perspective I speculatively think you are right on. Investors are GM sensitive and when they see stable GM they trust NM will come back in force when demand cycles up again. They might not all expect that lower sales should result in higher GM up to the point where either cell makers start to sell at negative GM or the panel producer no longer needs to outsource at which point GM deterioration accelerates with underutilized in-house capacity.
  10. explo

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    SCSolar, you are right that GM on outsourced panels improve a lot in a trough. For highly integrated players the outsourcing might go down a lot when order book starts to contract. In the end it is the EPS that matters and there are many stronger forces pushing down that in a trough than the expaned GM on panels with outsourced cells can compensate for. Outsourcers are relative winners though. They stay at different levels of mediocre profitability in all environments while in-housers and upstream flip between superior and inferior. Over time the best in class in-housers accumulate the most earnings.
  11. explo

    Daqo (DQ)

    I was thinking in a longer perspective on profitability on panel production. Much of their GM (not to mention their NM considering high R&D) on that was related to the cost of polysilicon. It's like you want to move the long-term ASP pain of FSLR from falling polysilicon costs to DQ. DQ shareholder pain won't alleviate FSLR shareholder pain so what's the point on bashing another stock for the pain that hits both your stock and that stock. Again I'm talking long-term profits and then it is really the thin film margin only that suffer from lowered polysilicon production costs not the polysilicon production margins. At least DQ can (in theory) do something about it by remaining competitive by re-taking the cost leadership in the future. FSLR can't do anything about the drop in contribution from this margin component (they can improve other components, but not this one).
  12. explo

    Daqo (DQ)

    If that includes a short depreciation period it is impressive. Si production costs are coming down to 2.5 cents per watt. This means that FSLR's historically massive gross margin component is evaporating.
  13. explo

    SunPower (SPWR)

    So you think that will result in larger than 160m profit (equity gain)? From what was said above and if they don’t sell their stock their equity in Q3 will be below 35 -195 = -160 million
  14. From Yahoo: 52 Week Range 0.76 - 7.60 It was recently at the high of that range A tenbagger in less than a year seems like a quick gain of altitude. Maybe a breather at less thin air was needed. If you bought at the 52 week low you're still up more than 700%. Beware of "greed" - the evil companion of "quick success".
  15. explo

    Daqo (DQ)

    Ah, ok. You mean which accounting policies companies listed in HK, shanghai, and shenzhen need to follow. Not sure.