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explo

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explo last won the day on September 11 2018

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About explo

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    Europe

Portfolio

  • Portfolio %
    53/30/17 Alpha/Beta/Risk-Free

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  1. explo

    Trading Strategy

    Thanks Jet
  2. explo

    Trading Strategy

    Back on target much faster than expected.
  3. explo

    Trading Strategy

    While the sector concentration is not insignificant considering the largest sector of the 11 existing sectors has a 26.5% weight the industry weights has less concentration with the largest one having a 7.5% weight. I have now compiled the industry weights chart. While all 11 existing sectors are covered only 36 of the 69 existing industries are covered.
  4. explo

    Trading Strategy

    Here's an article talking about 2019 starting off as a stock picker's market. https://www.investopedia.com/why-stock-pickers-are-beating-the-market-in-2019-4586786 It also notes the following: The late John Bogle, founder of the Vanguard Group, was a key promoter of passive investing through index funds, based on decades of research revealing that few active managers, or stock pickers, ever have been able to beat the market averages on a sustained basis. This slashes my objective of sustainably achieving double the real return of the market. Time will tell if I'm fooling myself with my strategy to long-term beat the market in this massive way. Key to track this is the separation of Alpha and study the adolescent behaviour of this enabler of the objective.
  5. explo

    Trading Strategy

    My Alpha stream hit a new high yesterday capping its longest drawdown to 158 days. It's been interesting to watch how the stream behaved during the test of the December volatility strike. When the strike hit it was not more immune than Beta in terms of getting derailed to the downside from its target. The response on the other hand has been to quickly go above and beyond its target while Beta is fighting its way back to its target more slowly. In total the Alpha stream has gone the extra miles to carry the portfolio back to its target ahead of its benchmark. This has played out as one would hope and expect from its Alpha stream. Alpha's daily correlation spiked during the strike but on a monthly or quarterly basis its derailment from target differ positively from Beta in the aftermath of the volatility strike.
  6. explo

    Trading Strategy

    One more stock was added after further verification review (97 stocks, 57 funds, totalling 154 Alpha soldiers now). In total the minor corrective restructuring led to 38 transactions. The transaction cost is concluded now as 0.15% in total, 0.09% in forex and 0.06 % in commissions this compares to the monthly strategy maintenance cost of January which totalled 0.08% (0.05% forex and 0.03% commissions).
  7. explo

    Trading Strategy

    The allocation is strategic by which I mean it is optimized to perform best over full economic cycles. A tactical allocation would probably shift some consumption exposure from discretionary to staples now. Note that consumer discretionary is a stock pickers sector. It's broad. AMZN and TSLA belongs to it for example. Experts are saying that we are entering a stock pickers market. This should serve my strategy which focuses on picking longterm winners and the consumer discretionary sector might not be "all" bad for that reason. That the sector gets a high allocation in my optimization is probably because it is a "picking" sector where many longterm successful stocks can be found. The sector allocation is just a result of the strategic mandate of the allocation not a frame for it. Some strategic allocators allocate asset classes first, then sectors and last individual names within sectors. I let all that be a result of the allocation optimization based on the end purpose.
  8. explo

    Trading Strategy

    During this process I started to suspect that the Yahoo! Finance data that I use for prices, splits and dividends might be incorrect. I did an investigation and it turns out it is and it was during the period when I went into massive diversification increasing the number of analysed stocks from 35 to 275. Some of my oldest downloaded data seem to be correct though. I spent a week correcting the data and redoing the allocation optimization. It resulted in some pruning with the number of investments being reduced from 161 to 153 of which 96 are stocks and 57 are funds. In total around 15 stocks were dropped and 9 were taken in. Two funds were dropped. 15 investments were weight adjusted. In total the restructuring will have a cost of less than -0.2% and will thus not greatly impact the 2019 return. Since the asset allocation is strategic with the purpose of providing long-term return the cost to base the allocation result on correct data seemed motivated. Hopefully this was the last restructuring (it was minor compared to some restructuring during the strategy development last year). The sector distribution changed quite a lot. The defensive sectors share was reduced from 30% to 25%.
  9. explo

    Trading Strategy

    I'm viewing my strategy more and more as an enabler of maximum "time in the market" rather than savvy "timing the market". It's said that the former is how to achieve good long-term return and the latter how to risk missing out of the long-term market return. The strategy purpose is a bit more complicated than that, but it is something worth remembering, that a strategy that helps maximize time in the market (by risk management) will do a job building long-term wealth. That's understandable. It's a massive exercise to keep a well diversified portfolio when it's stocks heavy. I have 50/50 stocks/funds but the stocks are still more than 70% of the risk. Low fee funds are excellent diversification tools. Good job. At least I only have one account to track and maintain..
  10. explo

    Trading Strategy

    Thank FED! Looks like a big bear scare have set the direction at this crossroads. Let's hope that the market down trend is broken now and that Christmas Eve was its low.
  11. explo

    Solar News

    Wow, climate change is negatively impacting solar PV profits now..
  12. explo

    Solar News

    Yes that’s been a wild one.
  13. explo

    Trading Strategy

    Due to the mute week the window of opportunity is technically not closed for the bears, but it seems less likely that they will be able to use it when they failed to do it so far. There are near-term upside risks on trade resolution and earnings. Meanwhile my Alpha return just got back above its long-term CAGR target.
  14. explo

    Trading Strategy

    S&P 500 returned -0.22% for the week. I'll take it after the Tuesday plunge. The bulls regained and stood the ground in the end. The bears might have missed the opportunity to reject the Christmas Eve low as the bottom before a new high. Without such a set back the outlook for the 2019 return is considerably brighter.
  15. explo

    Solar News

    Congrats to CN Solar holders! JKS up 115% and CSIQ up 70% since their 52 week lows.
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