Jump to content


LifeTime Member
  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won


explo last won the day on February 10

explo had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

692 Excellent


About explo

Profile Information

  • Location :


  • Portfolio %
    30/20/50 Stocks/Bonds/Hedges Capital: 33/67 Equity/Debt
  1. Trading Strategy

    I find the mix great. Some 0% dividend stocks, some 1-3% and some 3%+ ones. The first category is the action stocks, biotech, information tech etc., the mid part could be mature but growing consumption, pharmaceutical, raw materials companies, financial companies and the last part REITs and utilities. Note that within each category of yield vs growth there are different PPS volatility profiles. A raw materials company might have a very cyclic PPS despite decent yield. Pharmaceutical might have very market insulated PPS behaviour. Utilities have extremely low PPS volatility.
  2. Trading Strategy

    Nice. 10-15 stocks offers great diversification for long-term holding. A max allocation per stock is the simplest and most powerful way to achieve this. I have a max 10% allocation rule and a 5% allocation unit which means each stock has either 5% or 10% allocation target. Right now I have 13 stocks, 7 at 10% and 6 and 5%. This avoids the risk of overweighting long-term dogs and underweighting long-term stars and thus reduces the risk of long-term market underperformance. To reduce short-term volatility risk and to increase short-term re-balancing opportunities a mix of sectors achieved by a max sector allocation rule of say 30% can be a quite powerful addition to the max single stock allocation rule.
  3. Solar News

    Massive project
  4. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    NEE is probably the most successful US utility this decade. It's got to sting a bit for FSLR..
  5. Trading Strategy

    This has been partially executed in the stocks basket by reduction of 3 out 4 triggered stocks. The utility and real estate stocks offered PPS stability (beside high dividend income) during the volatility and were therefore good reduction candidates. The remaining stock to reduce is AMZN which has run up more than 60% in less than 6 months since I entered it, but short-term it took a Trump hate beating. I expect this effect to fade so I'll wait a bit with the reduction (missed opportunity just before the Trump hate dip), but it should be done soon since a correction of the massive run up is due.
  6. Trading Strategy

    Their report gave the explanation that their models had heightened the "value at risk" in the long positions of stock index (probably due the very strong uptrend with extremely low volatility before February). During the week of increased volatility in early February their models cut the stock index value at risk more than half, but did not switch to a short position. The late February rebound was therefore not fully enjoyed. In March the fund stabilized at around 0% return after February being it worst month since the 2001 inception. The reduced risk against stock index that lost recovery gains in late February instead gained resilience against the renewed weakness in late March. The volatility in stocks has so far in 2018 been very high. A complete reversal of the extremely low volatility during the whole 2017. This will make it an interesting year for my funds. They were not really shining to say the least during the low volatility last year.
  7. Trading Strategy

    Getting back to this subject. The past month it has been even more clear that my stocks outperform index better during high volatility. The index is down a bit more than 3.5% the past month while my stocks are up around 1%. The USD help this 4.5% outperformance with around 1.5% through it's short-term negative correlation to index as previously discussed. The remaining 3% was PPS outperformance by my lower risk stocks. When I in August last year switched from high risk solar stocks to a broad mix of low risk stocks I lost my Alpha, since during a period of extremely low volatility the high risk stocks paid off better. Now during a period of high volatility my low risk stocks are paying off.
  8. JA Solar (JASO)

    That sounds like a creative way to interpret their statement: Herman Zhao has resigned as Chief Financial Officer effective March 27, 2018 to pursue other interests. "We thank Herman for his many years of service to JA Solar. We respect his decision and wish him the very best in his future endeavors." The Company noted that there are no issues involving the Company’s financial statements, internal controls or financial reporting procedures that led to Mr. Zhao’s departure. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ja-solar-announces-resignation-chief-123000469.html
  9. Solar News

    ok, thanks. I guess the break out and hold signal was very solid then and strongly confirmed a few hours later.
  10. Solar News

    Thanks. Good luck.
  11. Solar News

    Well it broke it. What’s the definition of holding it? Let us know when you are back to 100%.
  12. Solar News

    Indeed. Time to invest in stones ;)
  13. Solar News

    I have to agree. Their outlook was very shiny when they traded in the teens and their cost superiority outlook and capacity ramping was already clear. Helped by a surge in ASP that shiny outlook turned out to a very nice time in the sun at the 70's. But anything above $40 was gravy from the ASP rip situation. This is done now (all three positive movements are done and one has turned negative). ASP will normalize, if not crash first as stars align with low cost capacity surging and consumption per watt plummeting, but worse is the cost superiority is unlikely to last. They relocated for low cash cost and did an accounting trick to allow them multiples lower depreciation cost compared to what was motivated by how much they have spent on it. Others are catching up on the cheap Xinjiang electricity as well succeeding with FBR in China which don't depend on cheap electricity and the accounting trick cannot be repeated on new DQ capacity. A reasonable range is $20-40. Yes like upstream oil companies with fixed cost and variable ASP the PE will be low single digits as ASP peaks, since margins become unsustainably bloated at those times. Those who at peak linearly extrapolate something of cyclical nature are simply late on the back on forth bouncing puck. The chart perspective has to be widened to see the broader picture. Even DQ permabull tupapa dumped 75% of holdings as it was realized that the very steep uptrend from 20's to 70's was due to a short-term temporary company and segment strength and not a long-term company strength signal. For those who stayed clear I think it is still risky to catch this falling knife. I was a very great case. But it is over now.
  14. Trading Strategy

    I'm reducing the debt capital from 70% to 66.6% (reducing leverage from 3.33x to 3x).
  15. Beyond Solar