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explo

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explo last won the day on October 1

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About explo

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  • Location :
    Europe

Portfolio

  • Portfolio %
    100% stocks, 250% funds, -250% cash
  1. Solar News

    Good news for tier1 that lower tier player keep shrinking.
  2. Daqo (DQ)

    You used to like JKS. Was it the outsourcing for market share impact on GM or the project development and electricity generation divestment that let you down? Remember that they and FSLR have done big business moves with has been proven skilled navigation in retrospect. It’s seen in their retained earnings vs paid-in capital metrics.
  3. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I like NUE in that sector. It's been coiling for a decade. I have some biotech on the dip as well, while riding the current tech soar. With this new diversification philosophy, if I were to stay renewables concentrated I would like be in the utilities and raw materials part and choosing well established players, i.e. opposite ends of the value-chain. Silver (might be replace by copper) and polysilicon for c-Si solar, lithium for EV. Utilities that launch a lot of yieldco vehicles would be interesting. In the mid part (industry specialized manufacturing and project development) it will remain likely remain rocky for a while until that race is finished.
  4. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I remember that we discussed this when it was clear that we could be deprived of Trina and JASO as investment options. My view was that less options to diversify / swing trade investments in the industry was negative while you were happy about it since the remaining listed companies would gain value. Now only JKS will be left (for how long?) of CN4 and DQ and FSLR has already appreciated significantly from the 20’s. For JKS they will compete with massively equity financed peers when they relist in China. How can they remain alone in a place where their kind is not appreciated.
  5. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Reading transcript now. It seems their strategy is to diversify technology and scale. That together with best historical ROE of US listed PV manufacturers strengthens my belief that they are one of the best long-term bets in the industry. In short they plan to do many things to reduce exposure risks and historically they’ve outperformed in what they’ve done. On the technology fronts, we are on track with the optimization of our mono wafer costs and upgrading diamond wire cutting to our multi-wafer production line, which are expected to be fully completed in next quarter. We will also include black silicon sale capacity accordingly for more diamond wire costs multi-wafer output. Our tech team continues to make solid progress in developing half-cell and bifacial n-type cells technologies. Our half-cell technologies a leading the industry especially in terms of combination to other high efficiency technologies and performers such as power output and reliability, we also made progress in developing new technologies such as Hydride Oxide Thin Film or HOTF, which makes 23.5% sales efficiency in lab and we plan to develop mass production lines based on it as a next stage. Overall, we will continue to allocate resources towards innovating new and high efficiency solar technologies and strengthen our leading position in the market.
  6. Trading Strategy

    Updated allocation chart for those who want to invest on the edge of efficient frontiers in the risk-return space.
  7. First Solar (FSLR)

    The kryptonite is not new. It was always 22 cts S6 in 2020 vs 37 cts S4 in 2016. The problem was that it at that time seemed like other cost reduction measures for CdTe and c-Si alike were a bit exhausted and that this was still good. That S6 will only be 14% lower cost than S4 in 2020 is a bit disappointing. Hopefully the BOS effect is bigger. Maybe it was said 22 cts in 2019 before the S4 extension decision, but the crypotnite is the same.
  8. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    As expected Suniva is giving TF a leg up in the battle against c-Si. In China.
  9. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I think one dilemma for CSIQ is that it this decade went down a path of not being a very competitive manufacturer, but a competitive project developer by access to in-house sourcing. Their strength was that they were active in the whole chain. Similar to FSLR when they lost their manufacturing edge. Now that the value-chain has cycled back to the state of previous decade where project development is tougher FSLR found a way to gain back some of its former manufacturing advantage and CSIQ is trying to create one, but there is much more risk to CSIQ’s outlook of success in competing with LONGi etc., that’s why I think they have to remain in downstream despite the harshening environment there. This decade downstream: crashing capital cost, crashing sourcing cost at fixed FiT/PPA terms -> maximizing sourcing and construction delay maximizes margins. In this downstream world it was easy to make money without a lot of specialized competence in that part of the chain.
  10. First Solar (FSLR)

    I'll have to look deeper. Too me the slides seemed more illustrative or colorful than usual, but not more detailed or fundamentally changed compared to previous strategy updates. Their first investor day when first announcing the strategic shift around a year ago was the big revelation to me. Now they are just doing what they said they would do.
  11. First Solar (FSLR)

    Did not crunch in detail but i think start the utilization of Vietnamese facilities had been communicated. Doubling capacity when rolling out S6 is what i have expected and has to my memory been suggested. They've long waited for something worth expanding.
  12. First Solar (FSLR)

    Nothing new really, right? The only change from before is that share price is much higher. And the outlook for the US policy environment to operate in.
  13. First Solar (FSLR)

    I'm excited about FSLR but not its valuation. At $25 their operations were valued at $10 due to the $15 net cash. I thought $45 was fair that time based on anticipated great success with S6. At $60 we're up 350% in EV in a very short time. Let's keep perspective, the value of their operations has not improved 350% since then. It was underappreciated and now exuberance rules. DQ has run in market price of the goods it sells, like an upstream oil company would, but if we want to assign a PE 10 we have to consider 10 years of poly prices too. These stocks are better to buy low and sell high. They are not momentum growth stocks.
  14. Trading Strategy

    Did you find the pie chart with sector allocation etc.? I haven't listed individual assets.
  15. Trading Strategy

    I've done some updates on the "About Me" page in my profile. Take a look at the attached chart (and comments in my profile) if you are thinking about how your portfolio can push the efficient frontier to raise the capital allocation line in order to offer you more return per taken risk.
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