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explo last won the day on July 10

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About explo

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    SO 8%, NEE 4%, FSLR 3%, JKS 4%, DQ 4%
  1. The portfolio and the funds component were printing their 146th drawdown day yesterday. Continuously new record for the portfolio while the existing record for the funds is 163 days which I expect to be broken 2-3 weeks from now. Maybe more interesting the stocks component printed a new all time high yesterday and thus came out of a 498 days long drawdown which of course is a the new record (the portfolio is just a few months older than that). I hope it will stand a while. It will for at least 498 days now.
  2. If this spreads there is a new very solid market segment. The cost and economics of it becomes secondary as the investment is a small mandate part of a very big investment for a home buyer. Importing panels at double price might not be considered as big an issue for this segment as for the utility segment.
  3. After investing in tons of c-Si ingot furnaces and wafer slicing saws they are hedging with bets on next gen TF to give FSLR a match if TF should gain over wafer based cells. I'm not sure how to feel about it. I guess it is good to invest where it makes sense today, but keep an open mind about tomorrow.
  4. Some very important points beyond the installation volume: Distributed solar accounts for almost a third of installations Idled solar capacity falls 5 percentage points in period The growth in distributed solar-power projects stands to help manufacturers led by JinkoSolar Holding Co. and Trina Solar Ltd. weather a slump in demand for bigger projects far from cities, where a lack of grid connections and a flood of new projects has prompted regulators to seek slower growth from that part of the industry. About 7 percent of China’s solar-power generation was idle in the first half, down 5 percentage points from a year earlier, Xing said, signalling that more capacity is linking up to the grid. This indicates that China has sorted out a lot of issues needed for scalable solar deployment. And once something is scalable and lucrative in China it will scale. The smog choking people of the country made it the politically correct thing to do too and politicians seem to have succeeded in adding incentives and eliminating barriers and bottlenecks to unleash the deployment beast.
  5. It was up more than 120% from its 52 week low at the peak today. After such a ride its always a good idea to take some off the table around the 100% mark.
  6. I've made a change again. Looking at NEE chart it has all the traits of a blue chip. Its risk reward alone as a single stock beats the index (so far on the charts). I then got inspired to construct a new portfolio asset class of blue chip stocks to see if that could contribute to total expected risk adjusted return of the portfolio. In the search for blue chips I that found that none could match utilities (maybe I did not search enough). Not resilient health care giants nor boring retail could beat them in risk profile. Looking at Southern Company (SO) it is an absolutely amazing stock and together with NEE it has great combined historical risk adjusted return performance. Finally I decided to scrap the new asset class and let these dividend paying energy blue chips replace yieldcos and offer true downstream exposure with generation, transmission and distribution business, not just the first one. I guess I've added some more base load in my portfolio. It could help trading the intermittent ones. I know that they are challenged by the energy revolution, but it can also be great growth opportunities for them with the right strategy and timely execution. New allocation in ascending risk order: SO/NEE/FSLR/JKS/DQ 20/20/20/20/20 Prior to buying SO I made a valuation analysis concluding it to be significantly lagging now, thus it got higher adjusted allocation effectively causing profit taking in FSLR, JKS and DQ. New diversification profile Mega cap 0% Large cap 40% Mid cap 20% Small cap 20% Micro cap 20% Nano cap 0% US based 60% China based 40% Energy 100% - Solar 60% - Mixed 40% Other sectors 0% Dividend paying 40% No dividend 60% Downstream 40% Midstream 40% Upstream 20% c-Si technology risk 40% CdTe technology risk 20% Electricity price and cost of capital risk 40% Polysilicon buyers 20% Polysilicon sellers 20% Polysilicon independent 60% Inflated BS 80% Deflated BS 20%
  7. This was printed on Monday. As of yesterday the current drawdown has lasted 145 days.
  8. My CN solars (JKS and DQ) are leading the portfolio today. Like in the good old days.
  9. PE is an unstable valuation measure if EPS is not stable. Change year for the EPS part of the PE and the PE will change a lot for the companies above. In my valuation analysis I now try to estimate earnings ability over a longer period.
  10. Nice risk reduction through diversification. No stock above 50% now.
  11. Mostly good article. Highlights a lot of points to consider. The idea to create your own CAFD measure to apply to all to make them comparable is intersting.
  12. I found the white paper by PEGI very educational in these matters.
  13. It seems odd to me that a party looking to make good deals would not be worried about being discounted as a broken party by its deal breaking tendencies. It would not be a good example to set for the 200 other countries in the world to reward premiums in deal terms to parties that don't honor entered agreements. It's parallel to the Brexit situation where UK leaders tell their voters that they will cherry pick EU benefits and the EU27 giving them the finger in order to not incentivize further exits. That's why I think there's a risk the next deal will have worse terms for US and that they therefore will not re-join. Isn't he just in a very short time ruining a great negotiation position in the world built by the US over a long time with this behavior? Getting good deals by utilizing a good negotiating position is fine for new agreements, but the strategy to not honor already entered deals for short-term gains will likely undermine that ambition on a long-term basis. The guy might not care about the long-term outlook of the US negotiating position in the world though.