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Klothilde

Solar Investor
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Klothilde last won the day on January 3

Klothilde had the most liked content!

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About Klothilde

Portfolio

  • Portfolio %
    FSLR 100%

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  1. Klothilde

    Solar News

    China blocks new solar in 3 NW regions amid overcapacity fears https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-solarpower/china-blocks-new-solar-in-3-nw-regions-amid-overcapacity-fears-idUSKCN1Q404G This is horrible. These are 3 of the sunniest provinces in China where PV power is most competitive and most suitable for the new unsubsidized regime. Check out the irradiance map, this takes away most of the sunny regions and leaves the grey and rainy regions where PV is way more expensive. http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/renewable-energy-resources/world/asia/solar-asia/solar-china.shtml
  2. Klothilde

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I wonder what Q1 guidance will look like. So far they haven't announced any project sales for Q1. Just sayin.
  3. Klothilde

    Solar News

    Humongous 2GW tender in Abu Dhabi. Will this go to Junkosolar again? https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/13/abu-dhabi-utility-fires-starting-gun-on-2-gw-solar-project/
  4. Klothilde

    Solar News

    "China Domestic Demand Shows a Clear Slow Down..." http://pvinsights.com/
  5. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    Oh no! REC shutting down its Moses Lake poly plant. Our thoughts go to the affected families. 😓 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/12/rec-silicon-to-suspend-production-at-moses-lake-poly-factory/
  6. Klothilde

    Solar News

    Bearish solarzoom article putting 2019 CN installs at "just" 35GW. Hope this doesn't burst anyone's bubble. http://m.solarzoom.com/article-120979-1.html
  7. Klothilde

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Am I the only one seeing CSIQ in the red this year? What an honor! 🤗
  8. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    I expect them to meet or slightly beat, though I haven't looked at the numbers in detail. They are basically sold out for the next two years at fixed prices, so imo that leaves little room for EPS surprises either up or down. Two positives are that prices in the U.S. are holding up well (despite the ominous 2.5GW quota for foreign cells) and that S6 certification is progressing as planned: https://www.pvinfolink.com/post.php?sn=2 https://investor.firstsolar.com/news/press-release-details/2018/First-Solar-Series-6-Completes-CSA-C450-Test-Protocol-at-CSA-Groups-PV-Test-Lab-CFV-Solar/default.aspx Imho FSLR will be quite boring over the next several quarters because they are transparent and predictable. If you prefer a roller coaster with 50% swings then I'd suggest to stick with the CNs.
  9. Klothilde

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I think it is easy to get carried away with two excellent quarters. But how about addressing some of the concerns relating to CSIQ? Who wants to give it a shot? 1) Dropping ASP and gross margin of new projects - gross profit per W of project keeps dropping, making it increasingly difficult to cover a very high OPEX & interest level. 2) Depletion of lucrative Japanese pipeline needed to cross-subsidize lower margin projects elsewhere 3) Heavy focus on multi which is becoming increasingly uncompetitive vs. mono 4) Nearly 500MW of operating CN projects on balance sheet that drive interest expense up and may have to be written down eventually.
  10. Klothilde

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Good Gracious, up 9% with that update. It will be extremely interesting to see how they pulled off that GM, specially since I expect their module margins to go down significantly. One key advantage of CSIQ is that they have plenty of project rights etc. that they can offload at wish to pimp up EPS. What's the general feeling here, are you guys holding this through ER or are you guys afraid this is going downhill from here?
  11. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    REC Silicon reporting on Feb 12: https://www.recsilicon.com/media/newsroom/newshandler/?feed=/R/136555/PR/201902/2233474.xml
  12. Klothilde

    Solar News

    Apparently Longi not raising mono-wafer prices, you guys: http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190202/961212.shtml Means they want to keep GCL making horrendous losses. This is also horrible for anybody focusing on multi modules you guys. Now they have to pay GCL more for the multi wafers but cannot sell the modules at a higher price because Longi is depressing the price for high-efficiency modules. I'm not going no name no one here but you guys should know who focuses on multi.
  13. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    I'm even more bearish. I think the non-subsidy regime in China will take a while to take off, so I'm eyeing 100-110GW this year. I think the market will soften after Chinese new year and that some of the current optimism will fade when spot prices soften and the Q4 numbers / outlooks are communicated. Well that's my current thinking so y'all know. And I said DQ is headed for the single digits so my stakes are high.
  14. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    You guys, mono PERC is selling for nearly 40 cts in the States right now: https://www.pvinfolink.com/index.php?lang=en Some here wanted me to lose sleep over customers renegotiating contracts. But it looks like I can sleep like a baby.
  15. Klothilde

    Solar News

    GCL and Zhonghuan raising wafer prices on strong demand: http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190130/960376.shtml Big question is if Longi will follow suit. At current wafer prices Longi still makes a profit while GCL incurs humongous losses. Zhonghuan (second largest mono wafer maker) is presumably about break-even. Longi may very well decide to keep prices steady and forego higher profits in order to keep the heat on GCL and Zhonghuan. Here's where you can monitor what Longi is doing: https://en.longi-silicon.com/index.php?m=content&c=index&a=lists&catid=299
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