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Klothilde

Solar Investor
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Klothilde last won the day on January 9

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About Klothilde

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    FSLR 100%

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  1. But what if FSLR gives a juicy EPS guidance during the next con call? And what if the CN2 guide lower margins in Q1? Ever thought of that? Because it will be the Chinese selling for 23 cents in no time and not FSLR. Just picking your brain here.
  2. surprisingly low Chinese module exports in December you guys. Even down yoy. And this comes after a very soft November as well. http://m.solarzoom.com/article-135762-1.html Now how can we spin this? Is this a softening of the global market after we've had some bubbles bursting? I'm thinking of markets that went from boom to bust like Vietnam, Ukraine, Spain. Or is this just noise and we'll have rampant growth starting in January again? Totally confused you guys. Fact is exports are low two months in a row and pricing is at rock bottom and not recovering.
  3. Let' see how CSIQ's numbers look when their ASP drops below 25 cts. Did somebody say humongous OPEX? Now Moses definitely thinks he discovered the promised land. However he completely missed that FSLR decided years ago to downsize their systems to 1GW a year and focus instead on modules. As Einstein said: Two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity.
  4. Sounds like cheap hype. Remember that as a rule of thumb everything GCL touches turns into *hit. We've seen it with FBR technology and we've seen it with cast-mono. Since they are at the brink of bankruptcy because of their reliance on multi they now need a "magical" new tech to lift the hopes of everybody. And what's up with this selective trashing of FSLR? If a new technology emerges that is half the cost of current PV then the Chinese will go belly up first because their costs are comparable to FSLR but their balance sheet is crap compared to Firstes.
  5. Jinko Power's IPO approved in China, this is good news for JKS as well: http://m.solarzoom.com/index.php/article/135441
  6. Your shipping is too low imho and you don't factor in any incremental selling cost associated with 25% higher shipments. Shipping and handling was $0.013/W in 2018 (20-F). Note that China shipments have come down since then and freight rates are currently exploding: https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-expertise/world-container-index-assessed-by-drewry You assume the sales force will deliver 25% higher shipments at lower cost yoy. Realistic if you start whipping them but I think that would be illegal in most countries. Also note they're expanding equipment leasing which will probably blow up OPEX further. Lastly interest expense should increase as they take out additional loans for CAPEX and working capital.
  7. This implies OPEX+NI per watt of 3.3 cts/W for break-even and 2.5 cts/W or so for your "nice" profits. Reality check how OPEX+NI per watt has been trending for JKS: 2017: 4.6 cts/W 2018: 4.0 cts/W 2019 Q1-3: 4.1 cts/W The flatlining above imo is logic since cost reduction levers for OPEX are limited compared to COGS. Freight rates are a given and there's only that much you can do to increase sales efficiency. Obviously your implied OPEX&NI of 2.5 cts or so is completely out of line with their trend over the last 3 years. Trend suggests barely below 4.0 cts/W at best for 2020 which would put them clearly in loss territory at $0.22 ASP and 15% margin. You have the right to reply.
  8. That is not enough. We'd need something like 200GW if we want margins and earnings to expand.
  9. It removes clouds but I put a lot of value and emotion into book equity and that definitely got a hit. With $350M they could buy 1/3 of JKS for instance, just think about it.
  10. This is money straight out of my pocket and I'm mad as HELL. The only thought that gives me solace in such a hard time is that now the black swan is out and the air is hopefully clear. And that it wasn't apocalyptic as in other cases (some in the past and some still pending).
  11. Some candid talk about the dire situation of Chinese power plants. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200106/1033849.shtml 200GW built. 150GW out of those have not entered the subsidy list and don't get any subsidy whatsoever. Resale value of plants outside of the subsidy list is being calculated based on the desulfurized coal tariff. This leads to prices that are 1/3 the initial investment or lower. At the present nobody wants to buy a plant outside the subsidy list and nobody wants to sell either given the lousy pricing. Feel free to believe this doesn't affect CSIQ and Jinko Power you guys.
  12. GCL poly getting $350M in financing to expand polysilicon capacity in Xinjiang. Just sayn. http://m.solarzoom.com/index.php/article/135139
  13. Energytrend forecasting 1.6% market growth in 2020: https://www.energytrend.com/research/20200103-16099.html WTH is going on you guys, where is the exponential growth you were all talking about? We have supply expanding massively, so if demand doesn't grow as well that bodes horribly for prices and margins.
  14. Downward trend of polysilicon prices to continue in 2020: http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200102/1033175.shtml
  15. Southeast asia PV market to drop 70% next year thanks to Vietnam bust. Keep in mind for your global demand predictions: http://m.solarzoom.com/article-134996-1.html
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