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Klothilde

Solar Investor
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Klothilde last won the day on October 11

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About Klothilde

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    FSLR 100%

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  1. Horrible vibes. Now there's talk that demand outside of China is also below expectation. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191023/1015205.shtml
  2. Do they have anything that Huawei or any other Chinese inverter company cannot replicate?
  3. So they are axing subsidies cuz they ain't got the money but at the same time are building transmission lines to get PV power from the desert to the east coast? Common sense dictates there's something odd about that. Just sayn.
  4. I don't know you guys, you really think China is ready for grid parody? Cause when I look at India there's hardly anything going on there without subsidies. And I figure, double the sun, half the cost of solar. You know what I'm mean?
  5. Rumors intensifying that China is ready to do away with PV subsidies altogether: http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191021/1014534.shtml May the Lord have mercy on our souls you guys.
  6. They already impaired the hell out of the S4 lines at the end of 2016 and three years later there should be only peanuts remaining. If you are concerned about impairments why not focus on Jinko Power's and CSIQ's Chinese power plants now that the Chinese government has confirmed that it has no plans to raise additional subsidies for legacy plants? Those potential impairments look way juicier to me.
  7. FSLR is currently at a disadvantage in energy intensity relative to high-end bifacial modules but the gap is not as radical as you portray it. Your assumptions are off and not apples to apples imo. You pick a high-end bifacial module of CSIQ (instead of an average one) and compare it to the least efficient FSLR module. Also you ignore FSLR's temperature advantage and work with unrealistic bifacial gain assumptions. These are the mainstream poly PERC bifacial modules of CSIQ: https://www.canadiansolar.com/upload/6fe376b80cce7983/64632b2f47ca72b2.pdf The highest efficiency module here, CS3U-365PB-AG, has a NOCT power of 271W. Assuming a bifacial gain of 7% (mix sand/grass, p. 13) you get 290W. Relative to the area of the module that's 145W/m2. The mid-range module on the S6 datasheet has 435W at STC and 328.5W at NOCT. Relative to the area that's 132W/m2. http://www.firstsolar.com/-/media/First-Solar/Technical-Documents/Series-6-Datasheets/Series-6-Datasheet.ashx Yields a 10% energy intensity advantage for the bifacial module of CSIQ. However this is not equal to an LCOE advantage as the module cost hasn't entered the equation yet.
  8. 'With this in mind, Wacker also announced plans for a comprehensive program of cost savings and efficiency increases. “We must, and will, effectively counter the increasingly difficult conditions in our business,” said Staudigl.' Very interesting...! Means Wacker is getting ready for a lengthy and costly battle for survival. This will depress ASPs for a while since ASPs can only recover once Wacker and OCI exit the industry and the CN players can find a supply balance among them.
  9. I think this is part of what has been pressuring shares over the last hours: http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191017/1013731.shtml 1) There is gossip that China plans to wind down subsidies for PV in 2020 and transition fully to non-subsidized solar in 2021 2) China officially hit this year's target of residential installations in September, which triggered the deadline of October 31 for remaining residential systems to be grid-connected in order to receive subsidies.
  10. Well we work with different assumptions so our conclusions are different. For starters if I compare these datasheets I get lower differences in area efficiency and weight: http://www.firstsolar.com/-/media/First-Solar/Technical-Documents/Series-6-Datasheets/Series-6-Datasheet.ashx https://www.canadiansolar.com/upload/35ccd0bf406656df/de4cee449c973a76.pdf I also look at NOCT power and that gives a different picture since CdTe has a lower temperature coefficient. I also don't think CSIQ can produce that module for 20 cts but probably for 22-23 cts (China). Just the additional glass sheet may increase cost by one cent, you can do the math: https://en.pvinfolink.com/ It all hinges on the assumptions.
  11. Well your graph shows that CdTe and bifacial silicon perform more or less at par. However the question is if one technology is superior to the other in the mid- / long term in terms of levelized cost (i.e. $/kWh). Right now on my books FSLR is head to head with the lowest cost CN producers. It will be interesting to see how both technologies develop in cost position going forward. I think that FSLR will maintain a stronger cost reduction momentum than the CNs over the next couple of years.
  12. Thanks, now I understand why a TTM PE north of 200 makes sense for ENPH but not for FSLR. How bout the forward PE of 25 for ENPH vs. 15 for FSLR based on 2020 EPS consensus. Can you explain why ENPH is the cheaper stock? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ENPH/analysis?p=ENPH
  13. I think you are exaggerating. There are very good things coming to FSLR starting with Q3 and I think it's time to start giving the company a little bit of credit for all that hard work.
  14. WTH is going on in India you guys, are we losing the next key market?? https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/solar-power-sector-facing-slowdown-outlook-downgraded-icra/71612248
  15. Qu should rather explain to us how he will deal with the 350MW of Chinese power plants owned. Will he sell them at a loss or write down their asset value? And how big is the blow going to be? $100 - $150M maybe? Cause the Ministry of Finance has clarified that power plant owners can basically go **** themselves: http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191016/1013410.shtml
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