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Klothilde

Solar Investor
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Klothilde last won the day on December 13

Klothilde had the most liked content!

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About Klothilde

Portfolio

  • Portfolio %
    FSLR 100%

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  1. Klothilde

    Solar News

    Latest SEIA quarterly report. It's titled Q4 but refers to Q3. As if life wasn't complicated enough. https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2018-q4 11.2GW of utility PPAs signed in the first 9 months of 2018. Multi selling for 38 cts in Q3 and Mono-PERC for 41. That's just wonderful for FSLR. Strong demand and strong pricing.
  2. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Holding up well. If you want drama and heart attack look to other solar plays.
  3. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Help me out here guys, my glass ball tells me EPS in 2020 will grow to around $4,5 - $5,0 mainly by migrating fully to S6. Can someone else corroborate? That would be awesome.
  4. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    One thing I don't like after crunching the numbers is that module cost comes up to approx. 25 cts per watt in avg. for 2019. That is too high for my taste. It basically says they are doing well thanks to Trump and would be fu**ed like everyone else otherwise. P.D. However those 25 cts include shipping and warranty, and considering 2019 is the big S6 transition with plenty of process streamlining I'm willing to give them a pass on cost. Important thing is 2020 will be on a solid cost foundation, with S6 streamlined and OPEX reduced below 6 cts per watt.
  5. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Yes leave FSLR alone. He should worry about his $55 PT on DQ instead. Simply ridiculous.
  6. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Me thinks it's decent. Almost $4 in the high end if you take out start-up and ramp. I thank thee o father for it could have been worse.
  7. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    I was talking about the PV market and not the stock market. Praise be that solar stocks are up, that allows for a decent exit if your heart is humble and not filled with greed. As far as fundamentals go I think the CN PV industry at the moment is pretty much about producing for 25 cents and selling for 27 cents, with all its repercussions. And not much change in sight in my glass bowl. As far as DQ goes I saw it hitting the teens but my latest projection is it will hit single digits by the end of Q1. Explanation is quite simple: Soft poly demand meats humongous expansion in supply. But that's just my view of things. There are more bullish views out there of course.
  8. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Any vibes ahead of the guidance call you guys? The current market has all the CNs FUBAR but for FSLR it's no walk in the park either...
  9. Klothilde

    Solar News

    Yes but mono-grade poly down on ET and PVIL. Not good for DQ.
  10. Klothilde

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Such a sad story. I once saw their fair price in the twenties. But then they went on to bet $13/share on the wrong horse. Just sad.
  11. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Yes me likes them upgrades, keep em coming. Goldman yummy.
  12. Klothilde

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Well currently they are generating very little cash flow, so the cash required for big CAPEX would have to come from further debt. So maybe they are prudent on CAPEX because they fear getting drawn into a debt spiral like Yingleeee or maybe it was the banks who told them "sorry hon but I just don't see the cash flow to get my money back". I think the banks have started to tell a few people "sorry hon", e.g. Qu. Looking at Q3 numbers it looks like they already started playing with working capital to squeeze out the required cash for their CAPEX commitments. AP up, AR down, inventory down. I'm definitely getting the vibe that they are starting to get prudent on cash.
  13. Klothilde

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    This was a bit sloppy based on a simple revenue / total shipments calculation. Since I suspect the revenue contains some non-module portion that may distort ASP calcs I think it is better to derive the numbers from their cost indication. They claim cost dropped 10% qoq. Based on total blended of $0.323/W in Q2 we get $0.291/W in Q3. Deducting $014 for shipping and warranty we get a blended of $0.277/W. At 12.8%GM the ASP is thus $0.317/W which is more in line with my estimate for CSIQ Q3 ASP ($0.318/W) Regarding the cost I speculate that the difference between CSIQ and JKS may have to do with their wafer inventory and switch to 3rd party wafers after the 531 wafer price crash. A combination of lower wafer inventory at 531 and a stronger and quicker switch to 3rd party wafers after 531 could have boosted CSIQ's Q3 margin stronger than JKS's. Now assuming JKS hits 25 cts in blended costs in Q4 and GM stays flat as guided (12.8%) that would put ASP at 28.7 cts, resulting in a spread of 3.7 cts/W. I don't think that will be enough to cover OPEX & NI. What do you think? P.D. As a side note, the Q3 ER marks the third time I've caught them giving wrong margin guidance (aka lying). During the Q2 con call they said margins would trend above 15% for the rest of the year and voila. Looks like they don't give a sh*t. That's why I'm taking the flat margin guidance with a grain of salt, could go a coupla points down.
  14. Klothilde

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Good Gracious it will take me one week to sort through your post but they did guide flat margins qoq for Q4.
  15. Klothilde

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    So what do you think guys? Looks like they are beating on earnings and revenue. However if you deduct the CVD reversal benefit and the exchange gain you're left with $0.05 EPADS or barely breaking even. I expected a margin boost in Q3 based on dirt-cheap 3rd party components but that did not happen. Imho the current cost structure doesn't bode well for the next coupla quarters. Jmho. ASP: 33.0 cents CPW: 28.8 cents (excluding CVD reversal benefit) OPEX/W: 4.0 cents
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