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Klothilde

Solar Investor
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Klothilde last won the day on August 7

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About Klothilde

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    FSLR 100%

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  1. I think you are right with Japanese margins coming in higher than 30% now. There's one data point embedded in the Q3 guidance that points to GMs north of 40%. Taking midpoints they are guiding $795M in Revenue @25% GM which increases to $985M @ 28% GM if they manage to close the sale of one project on time. This implies an incremental revenue of $190M at 40.6%GM for the named project. Imo this can only be the 56MW yamaguchi project that's still on their books: https://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-converts-golf-course-56mwp-solar-power-plant This stretches the icing from $200M to $270M. "...Total revenue for the third quarter is expected to be in the range of $780 million to $810 million. Gross margin for the third quarter is expected to be between 24% and 26%, reflecting the positive impact of planned higher gross margin project sales primarily in Japan and the U.S. The aforementioned revenue forecast does not include the potential sales of a project that may be completed in the third quarter. If the transaction is closed in time, total revenue for the third quarter is expected to be in the range of $970 million to $1 billion and gross margin between 27% and 29%..."
  2. To be more precise: I meant to say that the high-margin Japanese projects were winding down, not that all Japanese projects were winding down. In my understanding all Japanese projects >2MW with approved FITs have a first deadline of Sep 2019 to apply for grid connection and a second deadline of Sep 2020 to start commercial operation (see link). Should they miss the first or the second deadline the FIT will be slashed in half approximately. Thus I conclude that the maximum volume of high FIT (and thus high margin) japanese projects that CSIQ has available for monetization is a) the already operating projects (89.6MW) plus the COD volumes planned for the remaining of 2019 and 2020 (61.8MW+62.3MW). Assuming $3.4/W and a GM of 30% that leaves them with roughly $200M in GP that they can use to sweeten earnings over the coming quarters. Once that is used up it's sayonara my friends, meaning back to low margin systems business in Japan. http://taiyangnews.info/markets/japan-extends-timeline-for-solar-fit-cuts/
  3. Why two exclamation points? If I crunch the numbers I get only peanuts in EPS. And so does Investing Hobo in his article.
  4. I would caution against irrational exuberance. I would recommend looking at module margin without the CVD reversal. And keep in mind the Q3 icing comes from Japan systems sales which are slowly winding down. Greetings to all.
  5. What's the commentary here you guys? They keep repeating poly prices will go up but they never do. Cash is down, debt is up. Also what's up with Roth being the only analyst on the call? Their in-house banker is the only one asking questions, that's kind of dangerous imo. Greetings from a rainy beach.
  6. Investing Hobo doing a careful U-turn on FSLR, trying not to lose too much face. Now claiming the stock is cheap only a few weeks after bashing the living daylights out of it. Delicious. First Solar's Series 6 Appears On Track To Hit Cost Targets https://seekingalpha.com/article/4283380-first-solars-series-6-appears-track-hit-cost-targets
  7. Does ENPH have a sustainable competitive advantage? P.D. Just saw that the thing has a PE ratio of 30+ relative to 2020 EPS consensus. WTF? weren't you allergic to expensive stocks?
  8. You know very well I'm in for the long haul with FSLR. I just pointed out the short/mid term potential of FSLR simply because some people here talk like the company was about to file Chapter 11. In terms of ENPH I don't know enough about the inverter space to feel comfortable investing.
  9. This is HUGE: Daqo New Energy Announces 112,800 MT Polysilicon Supply Agreement With LONGi Green Energy https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/19/08/n14218416/daqo-new-energy-announces-112-800-mt-polysilicon-supply-agreement-with-longi-green-energy Stock rallying, currently +0.02%
  10. All prices down again this week. So much for a booming H2. yeay.
  11. imo the backlog volume corresponds to approx. 8 quarters and would be offset by roughly $600M in OPEX. Also the above does not include GP from projects which may add $200-$300 in GP for two years. Imo it is becoming increasingly transparent that FSLR is heading towards a string of extremely profitable quarters, so I don't see anything to worry about in the short/mid term. My concern is their cost efficiency in the long run (2022+) vs CN competition but the metrics from the ramp are all very encouraging. By the way, what's your estimate for their 2020 EPS?
  12. GCL poly out with H1 19 results: http://gcl-poly.todayir.com/attachment/2019080708080243643580811_en.pdf "...Gross profit margin for the Solar Material business decreased from 16.2% for the six months ended 30 June 2018 to 0.9% for the six months ended 30 June 2019..." Means that they are selling their wafers to CSIQ and others roughly at production cost.
  13. Since I'll be on my beach vacation next week and won't be able to do much analysis here are my estimates for DQ in Q2. Feel free to comment or add your own estimates so I can finetune this for estimize. Rev $65.9M GP $6.5M OPEX & Net Int $10.9M EBT -$4.4M Tax -$0.9M NI -$3.6M #shares 13.75M EPS -$0.26
  14. Check this out from the latest 10-Q: "...As of June 30, 2019 , we had entered into contracts with customers for the future sale of 10.2 GW DC of solar modules for an aggregate transaction price of $3.5 billion..." If those 10.2GW in modules are produced at an average cpw of 20 cents then you get $1460M in gross profit. That's the market cap of another two junkosolars right there.
  15. I'll start worrying when I see that they start lagging behind in cost per watt. But with S6 at 20 cents and heading to 15 cents it's really hard to panic. Also bear in mind that First has enough cash to buy two junkosolars at least, i.e. the 1 trick pony has enough cash to buy the whole circus.
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