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Klothilde last won the day on March 26

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About Klothilde


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    FSLR 100%

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  1. Yass, that's why Trump is now keen on raising oil prices. On a different front we're getting further evidence that the U.S. residential PV sector is among the hardest hit by Corona: ‘No One Is Being Spared’: Coronavirus Shutdowns Sap Demand for Residential Solar https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/coronavirus-shutdowns-equate-to-sharp-decline-in-demand-for-residential-solar Wonder what the ENPH folks are up to these days. Anybody still long? Share price still seems quite rich to me in light of all these doomsday articles.
  2. GCL out with FY 2019 numbers you guys. GM of the solar materials division is 3%, i.e. they've been selling their wafers at production cost. http://media-gclpoly.todayir.com/202004021136181724050274_en.pdf
  3. Good Gracious. The bad thing is companies in China keep expanding capacities like nothing happened. Kinda what is happening with oil. We have this demand shock and Saudi Arabia goes ahead and expands output. We all know what that has lead to in prices.
  4. Coronavirus Crushing Global Forecasts for Wind and Solar Power https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-crushing-global-forecasts-wind-172228562.html I get a vibe here that U.S. residential solar is particularly affected, you guys with U.S. residential-centric stocks be careful now. "...Residential U.S. Solar Morgan Stanley projects American residential-solar volumes may plummet 48% in the second quarter. And the pain will linger. Analysts at the investment bank estimate year-over-year declines of 28% and 17% in the third quarter and fourth quarter, respectively. It’s not just lockdowns slowing sales of rooftop panels. Morgan Stanley said the industry is being hurt by a slump in housing starts and by consumers indicating they may postpone or cancel home renovations..."
  5. One thing I find interesting is they say demand is mostly down in the residential segments in Europe and U.S. while utility seems to be affected little. This bodes well for FSLR and not so good for residential-centric companies such as RUN and ENPH.
  6. Oh, I see somebody has started shorting the company... 😁 But you are right. With this wording you don't even have to read between the lines...
  7. It is not my intention to scare anybody, but the recent PVInfolink write-up gives me vibes of weak Q2 demand because of corona. Just posting this as food for thought because we've been hearing from some companies out there that everything is fine. Make up your own mind. Let's see if we can get more info or vibes from the CSIQ con call later, wonder whether their voice will be clear or whether it will be trembling. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200326/1058168.shtml "...The second quarter will become an empty window for overseas demand..."
  8. Good Gracious, Corona to slash german GDP by 7 - 20% according to one of the main economic research institutes: https://en24.news/c/2020/03/economy-virus-crisis-costs-germany-730-billion-euros-say-researchers.html Are there any estimates yet for the U.S.? That's what happens when you eat bat soup instead of chicken soup.
  9. CN Feb module exports collapsing you guys: http://m.solarzoom.com/article-137768-1.html Please keep in mind that Jan was already horrible. Make your own conclusions you guys!
  10. What if mono-PERC cells are currently being sold at cash cost because of oversupply? Then your theory crumbles like a cookie. Ok so now it's back to today instead of the future. Are you trying to drive me nuts or what? What about the "you are doing it again" of a few seconds ago? Anyhows, the Q1 CPW derived from the guidance does not reconcile with your suggested 17-18 cts of internal CPW, rather with 20-21 cts at best.
  11. Actually I was quoting you in this post from feb 28: https://solarpvinvestor.com/topic/21-jinkosolar-jks/page/105/?tab=comments#comment-101369 You say you are seeing them manufacturing mono PERC at 18 cts. In my brain this registers as an indication for current cost and not future cost. Or is my english that crappy? Well anyhows thanks for clarifying that 18 cts is not current cost but some day somewhere just in West Side Story. I was getting nervous there for a second.
  12. Looking at the Q4 numbers I think your estimate is too low. They suggested in the con call that 6% of their revenue was multi wafers sold around 5% GM. If you back out those numbers you're left with modules sold at a blended ASP of $0.284 with a blended CPW of $0.230. Don't think your estimate above reconciles with this blended CPW, even when factoring in a large chunk of U.S. shipments with associated tariff cost (non-china production). Could you help me either reconciling or adjusting your estimate upwards? Thx
  13. BNEF cutting global solar demand forecast because of corona: https://www.pv-tech.org/news/bloombergnef-cuts-global-solar-demand-forecast-on-coronavirus-concerns
  14. The market is smelling a rat and is not reacting favorably, especially compared to the other solars. Has anybody listened to the con call and have an idea what may be going on??
  15. Not all that glitters is gold (ancient Chinese proverb). Be careful you guys.
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