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Klothilde last won the day on April 12

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About Klothilde


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  1. China installing 5.2GW in Q1: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/04/18/new-figures-reveal-effect-of-policy-vacuum-on-chinas-large-scale-solar/ "The latest new solar capacity figures to emerge from China have painted an even grimmer picture than previously thought as a continuing national PV policy vacuum keeps the utility scale segment of the world’s biggest solar marketplace in the doldrums."
  2. Probably some kind of typo, no jump on PVInsights nor on PVInfolink. http://pvinsights.com/ https://www.pvinfolink.com/index.php?lang=en
  3. 20-F out: http://ir.jinkosolar.com/sec-filings Let me know if you find something fishy.
  4. REC shutting down Moses Lake in May. Layoffs starting in June if Trump doesn't resolve the tariff thing. So sad, this is a beautiful plant. http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/apr/12/rec-silicon-to-shut-down-production-in-may-long-te/
  5. Well Roth for one sees the latest policy announcement as an incremental negative and downsizes its forecast from 50 to 40 GW. http://taiyangnews.info/markets/china-issues-draft-policy-for-solarwind-projects/
  6. Jus' sayn': https://www.pv-tech.org/news/xinte-energy-issues-q1-profit-warning-as-polysilicon-asps-continue-to-decli
  7. You guys be careful, Q1 will be horrible for Canadian, that's no secret anymore.
  8. “There has been a lot of speculation about when China will announce the new policy. Yet, since it will take 2-3 months to put the new policy into action, demand will certainly remain weak in Q2.“ https://en.pvinfolink.com/post-view.php?ID=173
  9. Polysilicon dropping like a stone in China, both multi- and mono-grade. https://www.pvinfolink.com/
  10. switching from multi to mono on a PERC standard module means going from 290W to 310W or a 7% increase in output. If that decreases your BOS by 4% and your BOS is 40 cts/W then that's roughly 1.5cts/W in added value. Means that your multi components (wafers, cells, modules) must be priced 1.5cts/W below equivalent mono components to make up for the lower value. Only problem is that mono is already selling so cheap that multi cannot go down 1.5 cts below without incurring steep losses. You can see it with Longi who has a good margin selling mono wafers around 8 cts/W while GCL has negative margin selling multi wafers around 6.5 cts/W.
  11. Updated investor presentation out: http://investors.canadiansolar.com/static-files/48509dd8-8e15-4d99-90f8-c22fa89905f8 Anything interesting you guys? I noticed they've started playing with quasi-mono. But why?
  12. Oh no, the Mexicans want to review the old PV power contracts. Seems like a crazy guy has taken over the state-owned utility there: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/03/29/mexico-wants-to-review-contracts-awarded-in-energy-auctions/ I guess this leaves Qu in Aguascalientes now, i.e. in hot water.
  13. GCL came out with FY 2018 figures you guys: http://www3.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2019/0329/LTN20190329163.pdf From this and their H1 18 figures I get for H2 18: Gross margin solar materials division: -5% ASP wafers: 6.5 cts/W cost wafers: 6.8 cts/W In a nutshell this shows that mono (Longi) is taking multi (GCL) to the cleaners big time. GCL is trying to fight back by migrating to quasi-mono and mono. Let's see in H1 19 if they show an improvement. Imho the above also bodes ill for CSIQ who has focused strongly on multi. The nastiness of multi should permeate their business over the next quarters as module contract prices come down to spot level. Imho of course, feel free to worship them if you feel like it.
  14. Yes based on mono/multi mix and the spot indices I have their Q1 ASP increasing slightly to $9,75. This coupled with a cost of $7.50 gives them an expanded spread of $2.25/kg, equivalent to a margin boost of approx. 5%. I think the price gap between mono and multi grade polysilicon must narrow quickly again to the historic average of ~10RMB/kg simply because this corresponds to the added value of mono over multi. I think we will simply see multi dragging down mono. Cheap multi-grade polysilicon will make the rest of the multi-grade chain drop in price and force the mono side to go down in price as well in order to stay competitive. I think that the poly glut will intensify during april and may as the new plants are ramped so I don't see multi-grade poly rebounding any time soon.
  15. So difficult for you to acknowledge that you were wrong with this? Or maybe you are not able to read financial statements and truly think margins have stayed stable? Is that the case? In any case it's weird that you accuse me of ignoring their numbers when I use their gross margin figures to make a point. Please let me know what's going on with you cause you got me confused.
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