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Klothilde

Solar Investor
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Klothilde last won the day on June 7

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About Klothilde

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    FSLR 100%

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  1. Article on how the multi-mono spread is expected to narrow. This lady from Junko Energy thinks it will mostly be multi rising in price, in line with the thinking of some users here. I think it will be mostly mono dropping. Let's wait and see. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190619/987046.shtml
  2. Thanks for your views. I have GP at $114M at 12.5% margin and OPEX&int at $123M. They guided "stable" margins excluding the CVD impact in Q4 (i.e. thus 13.8%), however experience shows they are not that strict with this wording and that "stable" for them may also include a 10-15% drop in margin. However what has me wondering about margins is the fact they mentioned twice in the con call that rising mono-PERC cell prices would "impact" the margin in Q1, but that they expected improving margins in H2, suggesting to me they expect a drop in overall margin in Q1 despite rising in-house margins. This is admittedly based largely on vibes I get from their wording. Regarding CVD reversals they mentioned in Q3 that they expected a further reversal in Q4 and then no further in 2019. I looked at the exchange rate impact in previous quarters and they do seem to suffer when the RMB appreciates, thus I factored in a sizable loss for Q1. But I do agree with you in that these guys have ways to pad their earnings when required with accounting gimmicks, thus I will up my estimate on estimize to barely break-even ($0.01) though I continue to expect a small operating loss.
  3. SC and others, what is your estimate for Q1? I have them at an of EPS -$0.26 and Rev of $907.70M on estimize and am worried big time because I'm the only one forecasting a loss there and if I'm wrong I will lose many points.
  4. That would be horrible for FSLR. What's the source?
  5. Iberdrola building a humongous plant in Spain under €0.5/W: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/07/iberdrola-plans-590-mw-solar-park-in-southern-spain/
  6. Chinese solar execs detained in Germany on suspicion of smuggling modules into Europe: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/07/three-arrests-at-intersolar-europe-for-circumventing-eus-minimum-module-price/
  7. Vibes that the non-subsidy projects in China may take until 2022 or 2023 to be rolled out: Innovation and uncertainty mark SNEC 2019 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/06/07/innovation-and-uncertainty-mark-snec-2019/
  8. Fresh vibes pointing to disappointing installs in China in H2. Read at your own discretion: https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/worlds-biggest-solar-panel-maker-jinkosolar-sees-slowdown-in-china-sales
  9. Well their MSS GM in Q1 18 was 16.7% and it dropped to 14.3% in Q2 (taking out the CVD reversal gain). That puts the blended CPW in H1 18 around 30-31 cts/w. A subsequent drop to 21 cts or so (~30%) in two quarters imo cannot be explained solely with cheaper poly and materials. E.g. Poly halving from $15/kg in Q2 18 to $7.5/kg may only save you 3 cts/w at best. In comparison multi wafers and cells have come down by 6 and 8 cts respectively since Q2 18, so I suspect this as their main cost reduction lever. I suspect they even idled some of their own lines temporarily and loaded up on 3rd party wafers and cells.
  10. Biden to hand out 1.7 trillion to FSLR, me likes: https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/04/politics/joe-biden-2020-climate-plan/index.html
  11. Thanks for your thoughts on ASP and cost reconciliation. I play with the same theories you've outlined. In particular I think the $40M of EPC revenue under MSS includes some module shipments as well. I also went over your EPS calculations and agree / disagree with some of the numbers and underlying assumptions. At this point there's a lot of crystal ball involved since I don't have a solid feeling of how the market will evolve in H2, however I'm sceptic of CSIQ's ability to maintain module margins above 20% in the long run. They managed to expand margins because multi wafers and cells collapsed in price but I think with improving market conditions those components will rebound in price. I kinda get a feeling that we're already starting to see it with multi cell prices. Also I think the EPC business ramping up will take overall margins down a bit, as EPC is traditionally competitive low-margin business (~10%). EPC revenue is usually recognized at construction mile points (POC), so they will have significant EPC revenue already in 2019 (~700M?). In my projections I deducted EPC module shipments from the overall module shipments figure and thus have lower module revenue than you. Since I assume a lower module GM than you that takes the module GP down quite a bit. However I think it is still very early to tell where things are headed, I just have a bad vibe. Did I mention those 370MW of CN operating projects waiting to be monetized?
  12. Well I'm starting to go over the numbers but first of all kudos to CSIQ for convincing the market that business is getting better and better despite margins heading south 😉 I need your help to make sense of the ASP/CPW numbers you guys. They say ASP was 30 cts in Q1 and they state MSS GM at 21.6%. Makes a CPW of 23.5 cts. Which is kinda high to me in light of their low 20s CPW claim in the Q4 con call and the Q1 rev/shipment hack that points to 26-27 cts (pointed out by Philip Shen as well). Also CSIQ's ASPs have historically been below the mono-PERC spot prices, and mono-PERC has been around 27-28 cts for some time now. Help me out you guys please.
  13. So what's the take so far you guys? I won't be able to listen to the con call so keep those insights coming please. What I've noticed so far: - Module ASP in Q1 probably dropped to around 27 cts - Strong module shipments in Q2, however to hit the revenue guidance they need around $400M in project revenue, which points to another big project sale in Q2 besides Mustang and Aguascalientes, probably in the U.S. - Margin drop in Q2 is a concern, even though they blame it on Mustang. A quick hack shows they'll need an average GM of 19% in H2 to hit the EPS consensus for the year of 2.23. I think it's a bit of a stretch...
  14. Good Gracious, Dr. Qu hurt in an accident and naming an interim CEO while he's in the hospital. Let's wish him all the best. http://investors.canadiansolar.com/index.php/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-announces-appointment-yan-zhuang-acting-chief
  15. CANADIAN SOLAR SIGNS 1,800 MW MODULE SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH EDF RENEWABLES NORTH AMERICA - LARGEST MODULE SUPPLY AGREEMENT IN THE COMPANY'S HISTORY http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-signs-1800-mw-module-supply-agreement-edf hmm... how come so many "fantastic news" PRs ahead of the ER?
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