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Klothilde

Solar Member
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About Klothilde

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    Newbie

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  • Portfolio %
    FSLR 100%

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  1. Trading Solars

    I am sorry but there ain't no KU datasheets, those are preliminary flyers. And the Jinko poly half cell modules only go up to 285W which is below mono PERC.
  2. Trading Solars

    Holy moly, The FSLR guys must be toasting with Champagne right now. Series 6 coinciding with this chit, unbelievable. Another mountain of cash for CAPEX and R&D. Thanks to the subsidiary of a CN company. Kuhrazy.
  3. Trading Solars

    That would be a surprise to me, but I'm open to surprises. Which modules are you comparing? Are there any datasheets available? Related question: Why aren't there any KU-module datasheets available yet even though the modules were launched back in May? I find that very odd and it makes me think they have technical issues of some kind.
  4. Trading Solars

    CSIQ's plants in operation will generate around $222M in gross profit based on the indicated asset and resale values. How do you get to 9.3 a share from there? As to Gordi, his supplier checks point to 100% PERC overcapacity by year-end 2018. If that happens PERC margins could completely evaporate. I think he's got a point at least.
  5. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Don't know where the G&A jump came from. Regarding US plant prices as you point out the resale price is tied to the PPA. The Recurrent plants with old PPAs were all built in 2016 and were initially valued around $2.2/W (that figure dropped in subsequent valuations). After the sale of the tax-equity portion of those plants the resale value of the remaining CSIQ stake has dropped to around $1.1-$1.2/W imo based on the calculationss I presented. The remainder of the Recurrent pipeline are all projects without negotiated PPAs yet, thus they will at best all fall into the current market PPA & System price of 3.x cts/kWh and around $1/W. Check out the SEIA Solar Market Insight Reports for updated utility prices, in Q1 ASPs for fixed-tilt systems was $0.99/W and for trackers was $1.08/W, in Q2 it dropped to $0.96/W and to $1.07/W based on the drop percentages given. https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2017-q2 https://www.seia.org/sites/default/files/2017-09/USSMI-Q3-2017-Executive Summary.pdf
  6. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    As a matter of fact the Recurrent acquision increased CSIQ's quarterly OPEX by $7M, i.e. overhead costs are not the same: "As a result, we expect operating expenses to increase around $7 million per quarter, once we integrate Recurrent into our existing business" https://seekingalpha.com/article/2980826-canadian-solars-csiq-ceo-shawn-qu-on-q4-2014-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Based on the above indication by Potter and assuming $1/W ASP for U.S. plants and 10% GM you would need to build and sell 280MW of U.S. plants every year just to cover Recurrent's OPEX. The volume needs to be even higher if you include the OPEX associated with the modules that go into the plants. Is Recurrent generating this run rate of plant business in the U.S.? I don't think so, at least not yet.
  7. First Solar (FSLR)

    Series 6 flyer and preliminary datasheet: http://event.lvl3.on24.com/event/14/81/23/3/rt/1/documents/resourceList1504219924924/series6_fs_br_na_30aug17.pdf http://event.lvl3.on24.com/event/14/81/23/3/rt/1/documents/resourceList1504220001558/20170831_ds_s6_na.pdf
  8. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Jinko blowing up shipment figures through OEM at the expense of profitability. GM drop q vs q. Only barely profitable thanks to one-time effects and subsidies. 0.6% net margin. Let's see who gets excited over this.
  9. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    So do you disagree significantly with the breakdown of the $222M by country I presented? Would be interesting if you plugged in your assumptions in a similar table to see where you disagree significantly. 22% GM in average for the non-US plants imo is pretty consistent with the regional margin guidance on projects they have given over the last couple of years. For Japan they said in the Q1 16 cc that they always expected margins in line with the canadian projects (i.e. 20%-25%) but that the first projects they sold in Japan came in at margins way above 20%. And for China they guided margins of around 20% in the Q4 16 cc. I deduced the low GM for U.S. assets by taking the $222M in overall GP and subtracting the GP expected for each non-US country. If we price Japan along Ichigo plants and assume 25% GM you already have to take ballpark $90M off the table. Next throw in humane assumptions for the remaining countries and you are left only with peanuts for the U.S. For me this is just another hint of low profitability in the U.S. Apart from other numerical evidence there was also an eyebrow-raising comment by Qu on U.S. project profitability in the Q4 16 cc: "...I think we will make money and that’s what seems to look like based on the first round of indicative pricing..." This doesn't reflect confidence in good profitability imo.
  10. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    2.25 usd per wdc in japan is too low. Check out what the Ichigo plants were purchasrd for, all above 3. U.S. ASP is so horribly low because tax equity is already extracted and this reflects purely value of PPA of 5 cents and below. I'm on the road but when back can help with details. If you aska me it's just a matter of time til they dispose of recurrent.
  11. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Well then it's only a matter of breaking down revenues and gross profit by country based on regional ASP & margin guidance and assumptions to show that there ain't much GP in U.S. assets. Which makes sense imo since a large chunk of the value has already been captured through the tax equity portion.
  12. Trading Solars

    I am out with the girls for drinks. They gave us resale value and balance sheet value of plants in operation. From.that you can deduct that U.S. assets will come in below 5% GM. Will post numbers tommorrow.
  13. Trading Solars

    I think the U.S. project assets still owned will come in below $50M of gross profit in total and I also think Recurrent is not generating enough business to cover its costs. Qu mentioned that the acquisition would drive OPEX up by roughly $7M per quarter. Do I see an equivalent boost in gross profit of CSIQ? Nope. What have they been doing all this time, where are the COD projects for 2018, 2019, 2020? Even the 92MW project they are building this year is an external one that they bought from someone else and Recurrent didn't develop.
  14. JA Solar (JASO)

    What makes you think they cherry pick numbers? They provide full transparency on their methodology and data. Just look at Travises profile above. They analyzed 479 ratings (so many cherries!), out of which 267 were successful. The average 1-year return on his ratings was 8.6%, corresponding to spot 69 out of 6116 bloggers ranked by performance. I mean, I'm just saying that chances are if you write a letter to MF to discredit / reprimand / silence Travis chances are MF will point to his excellent track record vs. blogger peers as measured by some of these popular ranking sites.
  15. JA Solar (JASO)

    I agree that Travis is off sometimes when it comes to solar. The issue I see with such a letter however is that his overall ratings track record is fantastic (ranked top 1% on tipranks.com) and way better than Robert's track record on that site: https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/travis-hoium https://www.tipranks.com/bloggers/robert-dydo
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