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Klothilde

Solar Investor
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Klothilde last won the day on August 7

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About Klothilde

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    FSLR 100%

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  1. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Erdogan says Turkey will boycott US electronic goods, including Apple’s iPhone https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/14/erdogan-says-turkey-will-boycott-us-electronic-goods-including-apple.html Let's all pray they don't classify solar panels under electronics you guys.
  2. Klothilde

    Solar News

    SMA Solar paints gloomy global solar market picture as order backlog plummets https://www.pv-tech.org/news/sma-solar-paints-gloomy-global-solar-market-picture-as-order-backlog-plumme Good Gracious. Only 103GW expected in 2020.
  3. Klothilde

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Their wafer conversion cost must be running at 5-6 cts/w, which means they currently produce wafers for 10-11 cts/w. Halting their wafer operations entirely and switching to external wafers, which currently only cost 7 cts/w, may provide them with humongous cost savings for a little while (as long as wafers trade so cheaply). They may have pulled this trick to spice up Q3 margins, who knows.
  4. Klothilde

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    They are repeat offenders when it comes to guiding badly. During their Q4 2016 con call (two months into Q1 2017) they guided 12-15% GM in Q1 and it ended up being 11%. I think they know they can get away with anything when it comes to guidance. No chance in hell there will ever be a raid at their CN headquarters to check their forecast tools and emails.
  5. Klothilde

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Why did they tell us margin would remain stable in Q2? Why? From Q1 con call: "...So, actually the gross margin we think in the second quarter is quite stable quarter-by-quarter. But for the second half year we expect a moderate improvement for the gross margin..."
  6. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    I think PV-magazine misrepresented Tongwei's expansion schedule. My understanding is that they are currently at 20kt and expanding to 70kt by the end of this year. The 120kt stage is still further in the future. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/tongwei-signs-major-55000mt-polysilicon-supply-deal-with-longi In terms of Tongwei costs this article (apparently based on a Tongwei stock exchange filing) has them going from 58800 yuan/ton to 40000 yuan/ton with the new capacities (i.e. $8.6/kg to $5.9/kg). I suspect the 40000 refers to the new capacities and not the average cost: http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180801/917512.shtml They would need $3 per kg to make investors happy, however that's not how prices are set in a commodity market. Prices are set by the cash cost of the marginal producer on the cost curve. The DQ guy said that by end 2019 he expects 300kt of capacity below $9/kg production cost. Let's say that capacity is enough for 75GW. If total demand is coincidentally 75GW then the polysilicon price will match the cash cost of the most expensive producer. That would be $9 - $1.5 (depreciation) = $7.5/kg at the most. If demand is in the order of 100GW then the price will go beyond $7.5/kg. How much depends on the slope of the curve beyond the 75GW point. The other company cited every so often that is currently expanding big time is east hope. PV-Mag has them expanding 30kt this year and 80kt afterwards. However their plans and status is quite intransparent. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/04/28/the-weekend-read-greener-horizons-for-china/ Also TBEA Xinte has 30kt of capacity that is already low cost. Also wasn't there a Chinese article recently reviewing the poly industry in detail, i.e. looking at energy consumption, etc.? Most probably you can derive a cost picture from that as well since cash costs are essentially silicon metal and electricity.
  7. Klothilde

    Solar News

    GTM Research forecasting global solar market to fall to 85.2GW in 2018 https://www.pv-tech.org/news/gtm-research-forecasting-global-solar-market-to-fall-to-85.2gw-in-2018 Also interesting to see how the market grows to 120GW in 2020 but stays flat from there on. Looks like they haven't drunk the grid parity Kool-Aid yet.
  8. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    I think it's too early to make strong predictions on prices. As already mentioned I see the risk of a big supply boost that may put pressure on prices over the next months. Poly supply in China is currently restricted to the tune of 45% by 11 companies that are shut down for maintenance (131.5kt out of 294kt). As long as their cash cost is below current market prices these companies will start producing again in a matter of weeks Add to that the 90kt of new capa of Tongwei and GCL and you have 131+90=221kt of potential capacity that will come online over the next several months vs. the 163kt of capacity currently online. It will be fun to see how things unfold. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180810/919948.shtml https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20180508PD217.html
  9. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    Roth upgrading to buy and raising PT from $40 to $55. https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2773926&headline=DQ-Daqo-New-Energy-rating-change-
  10. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    I'm raising my Q3 estimate slightly after fine-tuning. I factor in lower cost (RMB depreciation), some losses on wafers, and flat OPEX as guided: Poly volume 6000t, ASP $12-$12.5/kg, cost $8.6/kg Wafer volume 7.5M, ASP $0.31/u, cost $0.48/u Gross poly: $20.4 - $23.4M Gross wafer: -$1.2M Total gross: $19.2 - $22.2M OPEX & NI: $11.0M E p ADS: $0.51 - $0.70 For Q4 and Q1 I see a risk of ASPs deteriorating due to companies restarting poly plants currently under maintenance as well as Tongwei and GCL ramping up their low-cost poly plants.
  11. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    I think these guys have lost it. They think the global market could expand to 160GW in 2020. That's funny right? But also scary because it shows they've lost touch with reality.
  12. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    Different question you guys. I noticed crunching the numbers that they are currently forced to sell their wafers below cost. They even had an inventory write-down which corroborates that they are selling them bitches below cost. Now they confirmed they will restructure the unit and will have an announcement on that. My question to you is how high could a potential write-down or write-off of related assets be? They have around 500MW of wafer capacity I guess, so could they be hit by a blow of $25M - $75M for instance? That would knock off a few quarters of earnings. Is this possible or am I just spreading fear here? Here's what he said you guys: "...Okay. I think that’s a good question, also a challenging question. I think current market situation is very challenging for our wafer business. Basically, I think we are going to have a strategic review of our wafer business. Basically, the shipments, you can see that, we’ll just go ahead and clean our inventory. The ingots we produce, we’re going to cut into the wafer to sell it. So we were – after we, I think, actually, we will announce that separated, about the restructuring planning..."
  13. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    The transcript is out and I think the CEO was quite candid on prices (see quote). In June they stopped all sales because prices were irrational. They started selling inventory when mono-grade recovered to $11.7/kg and multi-grade to $10.4. And he says that currently mono-grade sells for $12.1 and multi-grade for $10.8. DQ's mix (70% mono) would currently have a blended price of $11.7 at the market prices he mentions. "I think the pricing fluctuation in June really, I think, cannot represent any meaning because we didn’t have any trading there. So basically, we also have inventory because lowest prices go to – renminbi is going to like multisilicate go to $70; mono, even lower, go to $80 revenue per KG. So actually, we didn’t sell – ship or sell any contract in June, so that’s why we have the inventory. By the end of the quarter, we have 2,115 tons there. Then I think the price – the market digested and I think of the policy, then come back early July. So basically, we’re starting selling early July, the price go to monosilicon around like $93 and multi- is around $82, $83. So we’re starting to selling inventory. So basically, we sold old inventory today. And the price of a monosilicon is around $95, $96, and multi- is around $85 to $86 per KG." What EPS do you get at $9/kg? I'm asking because the DQ CEO sees 300kt of CN capacity below $9/kg cost by end of next year. "...By – I think, end of next year, definitely, I think the lower-cost Chinese producers should be around 300,000 tons... ...What I’d say is lower cost, it should be below $9 per KG..."
  14. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    Not exactly. My current estimate for Q3 is $0.30 - $0.50 per ADS. However they are benefiting from shifting Q2 revenue into Q3. Without that shift they would indeed be slightly negative on my books.
  15. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    You're making things up. I never predicted they would lose money in Q2. I said that at current prices they don't make money. It's all there, go back and review. Did someone listen to the con call by any chance? Any news on 4A?
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