disdaniel

Solar Investor
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About disdaniel

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Holdings

  • Holdings
    CSIQ
    SOL
    NYLD
    26

Portfolio

  • Portofolio %
    10%, 10%, 20%, 60%

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  1. For any project over the past decade, the aggressive low prices bid in year X, have turned out to be relatively reasonable in year X + 2 (or +3) when they are actually built. I'm guessing the bidders are assuming this trend continues. Also it appears that module prices have dropped about 2-3 years worth in just the past 2-3 months. So maybe this is breakeven today, with the assumption that margin will develop over the next 2-3 years? In any event, I think we will see a dozen countries get to gigawatt/year scale in the next couple years if module prices hold at or below $0.40/watt (which implies sub $1/W installed utility scale).
  2. Anyone remember when GLBL has its next opportunity to miss filing financials? I'll be damned, but I'm actually doing better owning a yieldco that is not paying a dividend, or even reporting financials, than I was when both were happening...
  3. This seems significant... http://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinas-pv-grid-connections-hit-22gw-in-h1-2016
  4. price and volume looks promising today...added some glbl
  5. according to article, Hemlock is trying to use this case to lever SolarWorld out of US anti-dumping fight, which would open door for Hemlock to sell into China duty-free. http://www.pv-tech.org/news/solarworld-loses-us770-million-hemlock-case
  6. Finally... http://www.pv-tech.org/news/sunedison-ceo-resigns-all-positions-with-immediate-effect
  7. Wow. IHS says China installs 13GW in 1st half of the year, and that is bad news? If China VAT is 17% (is it? that is what a quick google search found--but I'm sure there are many nuances) then pricing from the IHS story ranges from $0.50/watt up to $0.54. If IHS reported pricing from $0.50 to $0.54 for 2H, this would be a drop of 5-6% at the mid-point from the ~$0.55 ASP of recent months...I hardly think that is disastrous (not good, but manageable). Looking at the market reaction (or lack of reaction), is this already "baked-in"? (Yes I know stupid question, bad news in solar is never baked-in.) I think this story is intentionally written to panic investors by citing price points that are very close to costs ...why?
  8. Still holding GLBL. It has the cash to deal with any possible "technical" defaults. At worst it can pay lender back and get new financing (not ideal but could be done) might even get a better interest rate.
  9. Odd how Saudi Arabia firm is "selling" solar at fire sale prices, just as the country (or kingdom) of S.A. is considering buying a whole lot of solar...I think this is a tactic to anchor prices at a low level, before it starts offering to buy tens of GW of solar. They could afford to lose money on the 800MW in dubai, if it leads to substantially lower bids (than what people would have offered without the dubai "shocker") for all the solar SA plans to install.
  10. Ordinarily I would agree, but the dividend is the entire purpose of the yieldco. They will not eliminate dividend entirely, although they may reduce it going forward.
  11. Could GLBL and TERP merge? Together they would be stronger than separate. TERP has more projects, and GLBL has more cash, each could benefit. In general I would not advocate such, but given they would otherwise each need to hire their own staff, they could cut such expenses in half by merging.
  12. Short interest only grew in March to 126M (up ~7M in last couple weeks), short interest in GLBL also jumped 1.5M shares in last two weeks of March.
  13. I think the "From Yahoo-Bord" says it all.
  14. very odd slow. This is a perplexing web of companies...
  15. analysts can say anything they want. the judge will have to rule based on law and precedent. I don't want to say there is not some risk, because I am not a lawyer and not familiar with the law in this area.