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disdaniel

LifeTime Member
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disdaniel last won the day on July 16

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About disdaniel

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    Member

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  • Location :
    Chicago
  • Interests
    general contact email disdaniel@aol.com

Portfolio

  • Portfolio %
    100% cash

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  1. Trading Solars

    Baffling reaction so far...most solars are green, except JASO which barely sells into US. Even Tesla (solarcity) barely budged... Well, I'm happy to remain on the sidelines since I don't see any good coming of this decision.
  2. Trading Solars

    sold the last of my DQ. zero solar exposure now.
  3. Solar News

    https://www.pv-tech.org/news/brazil-registers-more-than-18gw-of-solar-for-december-auction That is a serious slug of solar to be auctioned in Brazil!
  4. Trading Solars

    Also sold most of my dq--again a bit early I see
  5. Trading Solars

    Exited my CSIQ at 17...I always seem to trade a bit too early...
  6. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Apparently I should have been wanting JKS to miss earnings (rather than beat) all the years I held.
  7. JA Solar (JASO)

    something screwy at jaso
  8. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Sold my JKS this morning.
  9. Solar News

    JKS will certainly beat on volume/revenue. I expect good EPS, but no idea how GM will strike folks.
  10. JA Solar (JASO)

    If it is 37 or 38 in q3--and in the piece you quoted they seem to indicate both in the same breath (with the implication that they see the price will decline based on "is" and "will be")--it still is not 36 which GJ assumes in the piece I quoted where he projects a loss and on which you pounced.
  11. JA Solar (JASO)

    SCSolar prices were 38.3 in q2. prices have been increasing the past weeks (at least in USA) the quarter is 2/3rds over and JASO says prices in q3 are 38, and could fall to 37 in q4 (actually said q3, but I interpret from the entire discussion that he means q4 since he just got finished saying 38.3 in q2 and 38 in q3) Somehow GJ believes prices will fall by 28% on Sept. 23rd. I do not see this--but I have no crystal ball. GJ assumes Q3 prices = 36, which implies ~32cents/W price for cells in September if we assume July and August = 38 and even shipment volume/month. GJ is also assuming prices for materials goes up (presumably b/c of the huge demand we just saw in q2 and into q3) while simultaneously assuming demand plummets. I think you see one (higher cost w/ high demand) or the other (lower prices), not both at the same time. I find GJ making an absurd assumption--but if you feel JASO said a huge price drop is coming--you should not invest in JASO. Basically I have zero respect for what GJ says, although I also believe he speaks for some powerful interests. As for JASO seeing stress in GM, I take this as standard CYA-speak (plus it might actually be the case in Sept.) and the CEO trying to buy company for a song, so why not muddy the water to protect his low bid.
  12. JA Solar (JASO)

    From Seeking Alpha--Gordon assumes costs up by ~10% and prices down by ~10% to get his big loss in Q3. Nevermind that q3 is almost 2/3rds over and JASO did not say anything about a loss on cc JA Solar seen in bearish light by Axiom analyst Johnson JA Solar (JASO -0.3%) is not likely to keep its 16-quarter profitability streak intact, Axiom's Gordon Johnson predicts, seeing a Q3 pretax loss of $10M and warning that the company's results could deteriorate further in Q4. According to Axiom’s latest checks, upstream PV prices seem to have stabilized for now but the damage may have been done to the gross margins of JASO and its competitors; at least until the U.S. government concludes its Section 201 investigation, Johnson expects it to continue to support U.S. solar module prices, which currently are in the $0.32–$0.34 per watt price range. Johnson's Q3 forecast for JASO assumes the company's shipments will come in at 1.7 GW, at the midpoint of guidance, and that its average selling price will be "an aggressive" $0.36 per watt.
  13. Beyond Solar

    Last post on ARCI--with price at ~$1.25/sh P/E = 1.5 Makes even Chinese solars look high P/E!
  14. Trading Solars

    It never ceases to amaze me how little the market cares about the numbers individual (Chinese solar) companies put up--at least when they are good...
  15. JA Solar (JASO)

    would love to see another bidder for JASO...
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