yomama

Solar Investor
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yomama last won the day on September 4 2015

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About yomama

  • Rank
    新手上路

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    rhz4@msn.com

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  • Location :
    Golden, Colorado

Portfolio

  • Portfolio %
    JKS 20% AAPL 50% BAC 10%HLX 20%
  1. Roth Capital is holding a two day conference that ends today in London for Cleantech. I wonder if management reps attending are getting more optimistic? Hopefully they get more bullish on the sector in the near future.
  2. Interesting options activity in JKS June call options with $18 & $19 strikes. The 19's are seeing 2,533 k's transacted vs. open interest of 647 k's Somebody is betting on a pop......
  3. I have totally given up guessing what Trump will do next. I am not even sure he knows. His homerun play would be to stay with in the Paris agreement then add tarriffs to importers unless they begin US manufacturing within some designated time period.
  4. I am always suspicious when we get downgrades like this just prior to earnings release. Why not wait to get all the facts directly from the company? Citi downgrade is simply silly. The Morgan Stanley is more concerning but I believe the recent volume and reports of other Chinese solar company's reporting better than expected results trump it. It looks like JKS can counter their main aruguement of a weak second half of 2017 with the massive project underway with Saudi Electric. We will know soon enough.
  5. We have seen this before. It always happens with many headwinds. If volume in JKS dies out then this was just a short term blip. If it continues then hopefully that will get investors to their price objective and they cash out with some good gains. Will US governmental leaders put in taffiffs on solar panels? What happens then? Yea, it just gets passed onto consumers. In the end, no effect on GM. Just a talking point for shorts in the middle of it all. My only point is volume indicates that something decent "might" be going on here that could take JKS much higher. EPS for q1 is expected to be .40. If they blow that away then could see $30 in a hurry.
  6. JKS is my only solar postion. I am sitting on a around half of the open interest of the Jan. 19'18 $18 call positons (400 contracts). How do you trade a solar stock or option when it heats up? Where do you get off the bus? I sold some at $5 today (10% of holdings) which was a 200% gain. The crazy thing is $10 is certainly in the realm of possibility if the stock goes to $26. The fundamentals support much higher prices than that. What we all love about these stocks are the times when they get really hot. Only one constant in my book for judging the power of potential moves up. Follow the volume. If volume increases over the average in a meaningful way, which it has now for JKS going on 4 days, then you have a horse in the race that could make you some serious gains. I ride out the violitiliy. Can't play daily/weekly moves. Pick your price target and hold on... GLTA
  7. You have two things going on but price action will dictate if this move is for real. We have better news on new supply being flat and stabilization of prices due to demand rush in China before FIT cuts in Q1 2017. This gives us potential for an exciting short term trade. We could see 50%+ moves from currently depressed prices in names like CSIQ, FSLR, & JKS. Of course we all know those could prove to be much larger if history repeats itself. At least we have a bit of hope for a change. GLTA
  8. CS just came out with new estimates for Chinese solar companies through 2018 that takes into consideration 10-15% ASP reductions in 2H this year and another 10% next year. Demand for 2017 estimated up 6% over 2016 but still oversupply situation. The only Chinese solar expected to be profitable next year is JKS which he keeps at Outperform with reduced target price of $30. JKS estimates for '16, '17, & '18 are now $5.35/.51/$2.24. I am not sure how YGE survives next year. He has estimates of ($6.94) for 2017 then ($4.44) for 2018. He has US demand decreasing to 7.5 GW in 2017 from 10.2 GW. That should prove to be too low if Hilary is elected. I am staying with JKS & have added January deep money '18 call leaps in CSIQ. Also really like SUNW (micro-cap primarily commercial solar system installer mainly in California) for a Hillary play. Profitable & growing by over 100% y/y. GLTA
  9. No. Those should come out after their customers get the chance to buy what they want....
  10. J.P. Morgan upgrade to overweight from neutral... got it on fly-on-the-wall
  11. Good analysis... JKS still has the best ability to catch fire this year if sentiment changes towards the sector.
  12. CS released report this morning on JKS. Still $40 target. Unlike other solar stocks JKS will be able to grow GM through oversupply 2H. This one looks really cheap now.....
  13. Another factor working the other way is JKS shipped just over 10% of its total expected vol. in US in Q1. Those carry high margins (25%). The split will be 35% first half then 65% second half on 1GW total. The concern seems to be them not raising annual guidance & China demand for Q3. They stated on CC that they might raise guidance but not until Q2 is announced. This however does not justify the low current stock price. Should easily be north of $30.....
  14. Weak hands clearing out soon. Improving margins coming with higher US orders as we progress through the year. JKS is well positioned....
  15. Yes indeed. Great margins & no cutback on project development side. If we ever get any good news out of China on FIT payments then this stock will rocket....