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Solar Investor
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bodhi last won the day on December 25 2015

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  1. I can see FSLR getting bought out in the next couple of years as they are again a 'gamble' and the markets will no longer float them a high PE as they are a tenured citizen. Lack of PE respect means they can't issue equity to raise cash which they will inevitably need
  2. the downward march goes on... knew i shoulda shorted FSLR today. just had a feeling. was this announcement scheduled?
  3. does anyone here NOT think the CN solars will revisit low single digits in the next year or two? volatility will be an excellent play, but oversupply is real.. margins are not, and growth is questionable now. Out for now, but a sad state of affairs for sure. Will history repeat and in 6 years time we're looking at CSIQ mid 30's again? would be great to see
  4. Canadian up 15% almost from lows... wow. fortunes can be made in minutes right now
  5. the bath in solar is real... i haven't traded solars for months now. Wish those who remain luck, but i'll be trading oil for the foreseeable future. Maybe back in mid 2017. KW
  6. commodity product, generous credit lines for everyone, and the threat of replacement is real... hoping that at least a couple of the CN's will go to zero in the next year or two, or maybe even SPWR, so that others can flourish. But in general, i never expect any of these stocks to trade above the 10-15 PE range again. For CN listed, i'd say 6-12x is about all you can expect.
  7. there is another way to make money in times like these... going short
  8. to nibble that SPWR short... or not to nibble... that is the question....
  9. Thinking of shorting SPWR going into earnings next week.. if it consolidates between today and monday, will probably throw a few thousand shares on bar-b
  10. The thing with oil is you can't just shake a stick with a new machine and increase supply... It takes luck to find it, and long lead times to bring it online, and money for all of that to happen. Demand is steady for a decade increasing 1mm barrels per day year over year. Nobody has spent money in the past 2 years to find new oil... Or invested in new fields. Oil fields have a finite life, and the lack of investment over the past two years is equivalent to around 5,000,000 barrels a day lost . Woods Mckenzie has a good article on it. I agree the market is still saturated, and will be for sometimeā€¦ But the demand is going nowhere, and new supply is non existent... Sometime in the next few years, when demand and supply Flip, Oil is going to moonshot againā€¦ What's playing out right now is the 1980s all over again jm2c
  11. I haven't traded solars for months now... And i do recall saying with 99% certainty that CSIQ would not touch mid 20's again this year after it careened down $18 early this year. I see solar as a dead investment for the forseeable future, well into 2017. The new volatility play is in oil. Actively trading specific names, largely on the E&P side.. the up/down swings remind me of solar before they all flatlined and began to bleedout
  12. SEDG could be poised for a break soon... trading right under the 50 DMA, been under for quite a spell.. if it can bust through could get back to $25 pretty quick
  13. ATW sold this morning
  14. concur. I eyeballed FSLR today as it's in my stage 1 buy range, but the conviction in selling last friday was too severe for me to fully load anything. i will nimbly trade atwood, but will have an all in buy waiting for FSLR at around $41. it seems destined to go for that triple bottom. i will be torn between it and CSIQ though... if canadian falls to the bottom of its 3 year trendline bottom, and winds up in the 10-11's, i will have to split my investment between the two. single digits may or may not come, i won't wait if that fall to the 11's happens soon.
  15. I put some money to work today on ATW
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