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BIPV Investor last won the day on August 22 2016

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  1. Here is a nice summary. http://www.pv-tech.org/news/jinkosolar-guides-astonishing-9gw-of-module-shipments-for-2017 it seems to me that JKS has the same mindset that has caused more than one solar company to go bankrupt. Massive expansion regardless of market conditions.
  2. Let's me know when two major names merge. Until then consolidation is just a fiction.
  3. I don't get this market at all. This Trump rally is beyond me. Why SPWR cutting 25% of their staff makes the stock go up 14% is more than I can get my head around.
  4. Just stay away. It is just a roll of the dice as to them being visble in 2018 with their serries 6. Can see it hitting low 20s soon if this Trump rally were to even wake up to the reality of him being president.
  5. Unfortunately it is one guys choice for the next four years. He has called global warming a hox created by the Chinese to undermine US business. His short list of cabinet members is oil executives and nut jobs like Sarah Palin. He has promised to dismantle the EPA which is the agency through which the US regulates environmental concerns. The only hope is that the republicans aren't as dense as they suggest while campaigning and now that they countrol all branches of the government they will take their job seriously.
  6. Expo, the US involvment in any climate mitigation agreement is dead. I expect the entire Paris accord to collapse in the next several years once the US unitlaterally withdraws from it despite not "legally" being allowed to do so for four years. I'm in the fence regarding the ITC as that does have bipartisan support in congress.
  7. Indeed. I'm sitting this all out for some time. I believe that renewable investing is more than dead for the next several years. In the US I can see the Federal tax credit expiring at the end of next year, effectively killing the us market.
  8. Looks like it is giving you your opportunity to short SPWR. You game for that? I wish I had shorted them back when they were in the teens when I was saying their stock price made absolutely no sense given module pricing.
  9. They will be down tomorrow. Facebook and election jitters will continue to drag the market lower. Sill just sitting in cash as you premonition that this rally was a head fake proved correct.
  10. Yeah they just keep getting cheaper. Don't think we're even close to a bottom as the indexes are still only a hair off all time highs. JASO and SPWR sure are getting slaughtered. If only those were investable names I might nibble some.
  11. Same as last time; all one needs to do is look at their demand projections to realize solar is not where one wants to be invested for the next few years. Add in the realization that China is likely to come in less than the 20gw CSIQ predicts for 2017-2018 and it's easy to see that solar is going to remain a several year growthless financial black hole.
  12. Not following your math there. How are you getting $60M gross as $1EPS? There are costs that they are also going to realize on these plants such that net profit is going to be a fraction of the $60M. Typical project development heavy quarters their break even margin is mid 11% if in recalling correctly. When they moved development margins down from greater than 20% to 15% they basically flushed all their profit in the process.
  13. Yeah they may have once said that but they were comically off. The projects that they have built and are holding have already lost $150M in value (all profit) since they first started retaining them. At this point with gross margins of only 15% I doubt the 470mw they have can generate a single $1EPS if sold. The only value in their pipeline was in Japan and that is basically dead now. They strung investors along for two year and now CSIQ has no credibility left.
  14. Fundamentally the problem is that they have been lying to investors for the past year and a half. In regards to project development they are no longer to be trusted in my opinion. They have shown they can no longer execute as advertised and that they have little understanding of the actually project profitability. I see them under 10 with a chance to redeem themselves around q2 next year. Until then stay away.
  15. Yeah Roth is smoking some very strong stuff. Not sure how they claim $6EPS by end of 2017 via project sales. That would be $350M in profit on a pipeline CSIQ is saying would only be worth $2.1B at the end of 2016. As their 2017 development pipeline is small relative to the 1.37GW they will have by the end of 2016, I'm hard pressed to see how their development profitability it going to escalate to produce Roth's anticipated profits. Particularly as they have guided down the value of their currently developed assets by $100M. Had they continued with their target of 300MW of Japanese projects in 2017 I'd be much more optimistic about hitting Roth's target as previously CSIQ has suggested that the Japanese projects have +20% margins. All this being said I do think CSIQ is one of the best names in the sector and I will continue to watch weekly ASP trends to gauge how long this oversupply condition is going to last for.
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