Weekly Solar Market Price Trends: Mainland China Report 16

Solarzoom Solar Market Report Nov 19-Nov 23, 2012

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Silicon material

The domestic market price of level-1material is 118 CNY/kg, and 113 CNY/kg for level-2 ones.  The price of the imported level-1 materials is $19.02 /kg, while it stands at $18.342 /kg for level-2 ones.

Recently, inquiries for silicon materials increased, but the trading conditions remain stagnant. At present, the utilization of wafer manufacturers remains low; some silicon material manufacturers transfer their production to semiconductor-grade polysilicon under such a sluggish market. Considering the present price of silicon material has been below the cost line, most manufacturers expect a slowdown of price reductions and stability. Since the market remains gloomy at the moment, most manufacturers are now mainly focusing on maintaining regular customers and improving their liquidity. Except some large-scale manufacturers who have long-term orders and some vertically integrated manufacturers who produce silicon materials for their own use, almost all of the other silicon material manufacturers have shut down. Since the inventory volume of some manufacturers remains at a high level, they are mainly selling inventory, with fire-sale pricing being rumored below 100 CNY/kg.

Solar Wafer

This week, regarding mono-c-Si 125mm*125mm wafer, the price of tier-1 suppliers stood at 5.0 CNY/pc, and at 4.2 CNY/pc for tier-2 ones. As to mono-c-Si 156mm*156mm wafer, the price of tier-1 suppliers arrived at 7.7 CNY/pc, and 7.35 CNY/Pc for tier-2 ones. In terms of poly-c-Si 156mm*156mm wafer, the price of tier-1 suppliers reached 6.60 CNY/pc, and 5.8 CNY/pc for tier-2 ones.

In comparison to last week, the price of mono-c-Si wafers saw a modest improvement. Since many mono-wafer manufacturers had shut down in recent months, inventory has decreased, impacting this condition. Despite this, it is still difficult for most manufacturers to maintain their operation with a long-term view, since the demand remains sluggish. However, since the preset price of wafers has been very close to the cost, the profit has become miniscule and the space for the price to fluctuate is small. Only limited quantities of lower-priced wafer circulate in the market this week. There is also an increase in purchasing for domestic projects, both conditions potentially adding to the stability of the price levels and somewhat regulating demand levels. Since pricing for wafers has been very low, the price can only be adjusted to normal levels (ASP over the cost), with low expectations on profitability at this time.

Solar Cell

Currently, considering mono-c-Si 125mm*125mm cell, the price of tier-1 suppliers stands at 2.9 CNY/W, and 2.4 CNY/W for tier-2 ones. Regarding mono-c-Si 156mm*156mm cell, the price of tier-1 suppliers is at 3.0 CNY/W, and 2.55 CNY/W for tier-2 ones. In terms of poly-c-Si 156mm*156mm cell, the price of tier-1 suppliers has reached 2.45 CNY/W, and 2.1 CNY/W for tier-2 ones.

The market for cells has improved recently, and it is rare to see lower cell prices this week. The demand for high-efficiency cells has also improved, which helped pricing for this category to firm up. On a few occasions, cheap inventory was available from tier-1 manufacturers; therefore, some tier-2 firms undersold their cell products to promote their sales volume. Demand has now improved, and the condition of underselling has been decreased. 

Solar Module

Concerning mono-c-Si 190W module, the price of tier-1 suppliers stands at 4.35 CNY/W, and 3.9 CNY/W for tier-2 ones. As to mono-c-Si 245W module，the price of tier-1 suppliers is at 5.0 CNY/W, and 4.45 CNY/W for tier-2 ones. In terms of poly-c-Si 230W module, the price of tier-1 suppliers has reached 4.0 CNY/W, and 3.65 CNY/W for tier-2 ones. Concerning mono-c-Si 195W module, the price of tier-1 suppliers stands at 4.50 CNY/W, and 4.0 CNY/W for tier-2 ones. As to mono-c-Si 250W module, the price of tier-1 suppliers is at 5.10 CNY/W, and 4.6 CNY/W for tier-2 ones. And in terms of poly-c-Si 240W module, the price of tier-1 suppliers has reached 4.30 CNY/W, and 4.0 CNY/W for tier-2 ones.

Presently, the shipment of most module firms is favorable, and the whole market for modules is stable. These days, most domestic demand is from power plant projects. Current capacity of domestic module is high. We expect the price for domestic modules to maintain stability, while weak market conditions remain in the near term.

Tier-one companies include the U.S. and HK stock market-listed entities, with large capacity and product circulation in the market, like Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR)(NYSE:STP), Yingli Green Energy Hold. Co. Ltd. (ADR) (NYSE: YGE), Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ), Trina Solar Limited (NYSE: TSL), JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR)(NASDAQ: JASO) and ReneSola Ltd. (ADR)(NYSE: SOL)

Prices quoted in CNY include 17% VAR domestic tax