Solar News

[odyd 1,301]

REC is restarting poly ops in the US

http://www.rechargenews.com/solar/1431589/rec-silicon-to-restart-us-production-as-it-wins-orders-beyond-china

[odyd 1,301]

GCL fails at FBR, no wonder poly is up

http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/1942344/gcl-poly-energy-says-technical-problems-new-production-method

[explo 622]

8 hours ago, odyd said:

GCL fails at FBR, no wonder poly is up

http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/1942344/gcl-poly-energy-says-technical-problems-new-production-method

Wow this explains a lot. DQ at $11 would have been a good buy if one knew GCL just talked the talk on FBR. Good news for REC Silicon too I guess.

[odyd 1,301]

Total buys a battery maker Saft. $1.1B. Shows one oil company buying a lot of things about renewables. 

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13562537/1/total-buys-battery-maker-saft-in-1-1b-deal.html

[odyd 1,301]

In China PV to compete with costs of coal in 2025, as per Qu

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-23/china-s-solar-prices-can-fall-38-become-competitive-with-coal

[Pop2mollys 413]

Taiwan’s new government expands solar development

http://m.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/taiwans-new-government-expands-solar-development-_100024829/

 

[Pop2mollys 413]

This doesn't look good.  I just finished selling my stake of JKS for small gain.  Was going to hold longer by my gut says go on sideline for awhile.  

 

https://technology.ihs.com/579238/solar-industry-set-for-new-overcapacity-and-shake-out-cycle-as-outlook-for-the-second-half-of-2016-deteriorates

[BIPV Investor 7]

4 minutes ago, Pop2mollys said:

This doesn't look good.  I just finished selling my stake of JKS for small gain.  Was going to hold longer by my gut says go on sideline for awhile.  

 

https://technology.ihs.com/579238/solar-industry-set-for-new-overcapacity-and-shake-out-cycle-as-outlook-for-the-second-half-of-2016-deteriorates

Yeah solar shares have been following their collapsing fundamentals down for some time. My comment earlier this year was that even trading solar on oversold bounces is like trying to rob the Titanic before it sinks. Honestly though, the take that prices are going to crash that much in three months is more than I had expected as I was viewing the ASP crash really to take hold next  year. I guess the fact that China hasn't given an PV demand target for 2016 has really spoked much of the industry.

[sac_solar 28]

they talk about consolidation in that article,  this could be a good thing if it ever happens,   JKS is well positioned with its low cost

[Pop2mollys 413]

28 minutes ago, BIPV Investor said:

Yeah solar shares have been following their collapsing fundamentals down for some time. My comment earlier this year was that even trading solar on oversold bounces is like trying to rob the Titanic before it sinks. Honestly though, the take that prices are going to crash that much in three months is more than I had expected as I was viewing the ASP crash really to take hold next  year. I guess the fact that China hasn't given an PV demand target for 2016 has really spoked much of the industry.

I was expecting oversupply situation 2H 2016 but as you pointed out not at that level IHS is mentioning.  IHS could be dead wrong but if they are already seeing quotes dropping off a cliff recently that could be a bad pre cursor.  I could be dead wrong and I'm sure some will fade me here but I'm going to stay on sideline for away unless some big news drops.  I think it's entirely possible that 1 year lows get tested across the board if those ugly number come to fruition.  Short term could be pain but long term consolidation could spark a huge move up.  Just think until that consolidation happens there could be pressure across sector.

[Jetmoney 28]

1 hour ago, Pop2mollys said:

This doesn't look good.  I just finished selling my stake of JKS for small gain.  Was going to hold longer by my gut says go on sideline for awhile.  

 

https://technology.ihs.com/579238/solar-industry-set-for-new-overcapacity-and-shake-out-cycle-as-outlook-for-the-second-half-of-2016-deteriorates

IHS painted a gloom picture of PV solar module/panel suppliers the next couple of quarters.  Could this be the reason for the recent drop since market anticipates a few months in advance or more drop is to come.  That remains to be seen.  On the bright side, with module prices so low, it is now below grid parity in many places and will spur more demand.  Also, like you said in previous post, this will cause more consolidation which is good for strong survivors but more pain might be in store. 

[odyd 1,301]

Those numbers are real but the implications are misplaced. I am writing an article on this, and confusion galore puts everyone in the same wagon. TSL playing a victim does not help, but a lot of investors listen to Trina.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

[Jetmoney 28]

The news is very scary.  After reading the article, I was tempted to unload some shares also.  I am anxious to see your article and your take on this.  I hope your article will calm the fear somewhat.  Thank you Odyd.

[disdaniel 60]

Wow.  IHS says China installs 13GW in 1st half of the year, and that is bad news?

If China VAT is 17% (is it? that is what a quick google search found--but I'm sure there are many nuances) then pricing from the IHS story ranges from $0.50/watt up to $0.54.  If IHS reported pricing from $0.50 to $0.54 for 2H, this would be a drop of 5-6% at the mid-point from the ~$0.55 ASP of recent months...I hardly think that is disastrous (not good, but manageable).

Looking at the market reaction (or lack of reaction), is this already "baked-in"?  (Yes I know stupid question, bad news in solar is never baked-in.)  I think this story is intentionally written to panic investors by citing price points that are very close to costs ...why?

[solarpete 31]

Another thought:  surely the major players (CN4) KNOW this, and are adjusting their production accordingly.  Do we really think they're going to produce AT A LOSS, vs. just not producing (unneeded) cells/modules at all?  (Yes, that might drive down margins, as it costs more per unit to run the production lines at lower utilization rates--but a smaller profit is still better than an outright loss.)  Now I'm sure it's not that easy to throttle production willy-nilly, but still--variable demand is something they've all had PLENTY of experience with over the past several years.  I just can't imagine they don't have plans in place to deal with such contingencies.

[odyd 1,301]

Those quotations apply to China, and all of the infrastructure. Years of differentiation do not matter. I guess TSL does not know what to do , JKS seem to worry a lot less. Just so you know they will have over 400MW of modules sent to own plants by Q2. JKS has all completed it's expansion. They are done. IHS made goofy claims before, they are least reliable. Is there a problem, sure, is everyone equally impacted? No.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

[Jetmoney 28]

Want to be another Rockefeller, invest in this energy ETF and CSIQ:

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13594253/2/want-to-be-another-rockefeller-invest-in-this-energy-etf-now.html

Then why CSIQ drops this much today?

 

 

[odyd 1,301]

Want to be another Rockefeller, invest in this energy ETF and CSIQ:

https://www.thestreet.com/story/13594253/2/want-to-be-another-rockefeller-invest-in-this-energy-etf-now.html

Then why CSIQ drops this much today?

 

 

Lol. Article got published because of the drop.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

[Jetmoney 28]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ja-solars-investments-impress-competition-114711183.html

"JA Solar presently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). Better-ranked stocks in the solar sector include ReneSola Ltd. SOL, JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. JKS and Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. YGE. While ReneSola sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), both JinkoSolar and Yingli Green Energy carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy)."

How does SOL rank higher than JKS and YGE rank higher than JASO?  I wonder how or what criteria make up Zacks ranking.  Cannot trust Zacks ranking anymore.

[Pop2mollys 413]

What worries me is we saw huge demand 1H 2016 YTD and module pricing has continuously been pressured week after week.  What happens when huge amount of China and US demand is taken away 2H 2016?  

[Jetmoney 28]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-16/canada-s-biggest-solar-bond-sale-shines-a-green-light-on-future?cmpid=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo&ref=yfp

[bodhi 22]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-16/brazil-said-to-deny-extensions-for-first-solar-farms-amid-slump?cmpid=yhoo.headline

looks like Brazil is going to force firms to move forward