Solar News

[Pop2mollys 412]

Per Ameritrade wire...

*Axiom Capital's Gordon Johnson Says Solar Module Market Structurally Oversupplied, Forecasts Installation Demand Declining 4.6% In 2016 And Will Likely 'end in tears'

1/14/16, 5:45 AM

He is on an emotional mission to bring down the sector.   Would love to see his installation breakdown from all regions.  

[explo 617]

I guess Gordo didn't get the memo that cell shortage is spilling over to the panels now with production cuts to reduce cell procurement.

Demand declining 4.6% in 2016??

I think it's Gordo's clients that will end the year in tears (again).

How is this guy still employable?

 

[odyd 1,293]

sounds like wafer pricing flatten out, as Longi selling mono at price of poly forcing GCL to drop prices? As ever confusing, PVInsights market update.

http://www.altenergymag.com/news/2016/01/13/pvinsights-the-rmb-depreciation-affects-all-solar-prices-negatively/22547/

[explo 617]

Yes things are stabilizing now that prices for wafers and cells are to high compared to panel prices. It's still much nicer to be a polysilicon or mono wafer buyer than a multi wafer or cell buyer.

 

[disdaniel 54]

Sorta news with a small n, but still interesting

 

http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/clean-energy-defies-fossil-fuel-price-crash-to-attract-record-329bn-global-investment-in-2015/

[explo 617]

The silver powder supply issue seems to resolve fairly quickly (Dowa is 50% of global supply of this raw material for silver paste production, which in turn is the fundamental raw material for silicon solar cell production after the wafers):

http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20160114PD210.html

 

[odyd 1,293]

end of capacity restrains this quarter, while mono is over capacity(?) in wafer. Sounds like a storm in a glass of water, I guess end of China and oil cheaper than water remains the biggest more fear causing, also fictional as above, thread to solar now.

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/multicrystalline-wafer-supply-constraints-should-ease-on-5gw-of-new-capacit

[explo 617]

3 hours ago, odyd said:

end of capacity restrains this quarter, while mono is over capacity(?) in wafer. Sounds like a storm in a glass of water, I guess end of China and oil cheaper than water remains the biggest more fear causing, also fictional as above, thread to solar now.

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/multicrystalline-wafer-supply-constraints-should-ease-on-5gw-of-new-capacit

That sounds good. Wafer and cell capacity constraints are fairly quick to remedy (capacity can be ramped within a year after decision). Poly is much more difficult, several years until ramped and efficient after decision. So it is a big net plus for the industry mid-term that the overcapacity is in poly and the undercapacity is in multi wafer and not the other way around.

 

[explo 617]

On 14 januari 2016 at 2:25 PM, odyd said:

sounds like wafer pricing flatten out, as Longi selling mono at price of poly forcing GCL to drop prices? As ever confusing, PVInsights market update.

http://www.altenergymag.com/news/2016/01/13/pvinsights-the-rmb-depreciation-affects-all-solar-prices-negatively/22547/

More here: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/energytrend--5-gw-of-new-capacity-will-relieve-multi-wafer-shortage_100022825/#axzz3xP4Pza00

Sort of weird situation with multi wafer shortage and mono wafer glut and GCL adding mono wafer capacity.

Original analysis by EnergyTrend: http://pv.energytrend.com/price/PV_Demand_Remains_Strong_in_1Q16.html

 

[explo 617]

Looks like Peng has fought his way back from the pink sheets to a major stock exchange through SPI after LDK lost its NYSE listing: http://pv.energytrend.com/news/SPI_Energy_to_Begin_Trading_on_Nasdaq_Global_Select_Market.html

SPI Energy Co. Ltd is transferring to the Nasdaq Global Select Market for trading from January 19, 2016, under the ticker symbol "SPI". Chairman, Peng Xiaofeng is expected to ring the bell in new York.

Read more: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/spi-to-begin-trading-on-nasdaq-_100022831/#ixzz3xb7b0B7Y

PV-Tech: http://www.pv-tech.org/news/spi-back-on-nasdaq

Official PR: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/spi-energy-begin-trading-nasdaq-160000961.html

Website: http://www.spisolar.com/

 

[explo 617]

IRENA estimates US$1.3tn GDP boost from doubling of renewables by 2030

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/irena-estimates-us1.3t-gdp-boost-from-doubling-of-renewables-by-2030

[explo 617]

China sets 3GW target for installation of PV power stations using high efficiency panels in 2016: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20160120PD201.html

Not sure if this will be reflected in quota for grid connections, but it seems clear that China for wants to continue squeeze out the low efficiency players.

 

[explo 617]

End of shale oil coming?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-below-30-fans-wipeout-061925155.html

No doubt the strategic intent behind the Saudi's action to make sure OPEC taps were kept open during the oil slump. Few years of pain for them vs many years of gain in wiping out the rising competition in its infancy.

 

[slowtrader 1]

1 hour ago, explo said:

End of shale oil coming?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-below-30-fans-wipeout-061925155.html

No doubt the strategic intent behind the Saudi's action to make sure OPEC taps were kept open during the oil slump. Few years of pain for them vs many years of gain in wiping out the rising competition in its infancy.

 

In my opinion, first shale producers will bk, than oil price will rise, and than shale oil production will start again with a new producer. The result is just pain for investors, banks, people working there, and these days also the whole market.

[explo 617]

17 minutes ago, slowtrader said:

In my opinion, first shale producers will bk, than oil price will rise, and than shale oil production will start again with a new producer. The result is just pain for investors, banks, people working there, and these days also the whole market.

The appetite to venture into the same thing after seeing someone else being knocked out by their opponents might be less than the initial appetite driven by the enthusiastic new opportunity discovery.

 

[explo 617]

IHS, Inc. has confirmed a wafer supply shortage.

Read more: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/wafer-utilization-rates-to-be-highest-since-2010-on-back-of-supply-shortage_100022879/#ixzz3xoCwQ28Z

[solarpete 28]

7 hours ago, explo said:

The appetite to venture into the same thing after seeing someone else being knocked out by their opponents might be less than the initial appetite driven by the enthusiastic new opportunity discovery.

 

Exactly.  And in the case of shale oil, that's not a bad thing.  The share of energy generation by renewables is growing every day.  Give it another few years, and we won't NEED shale oil.  No need to destroy our environment in the meantime.

The market turmoil this is causing, however, is certainly not welcome!

[explo 617]

2 minutes ago, solarpete said:

Exactly.  And in the case of shale oil, that's not a bad thing.  The share of energy generation by renewables is growing every day.  Give it another few years, and we won't NEED shale oil.  No need to destroy our environment in the meantime.

The market turmoil this is causing, however, is certainly not welcome!

Agree. We don't need more destruction of local environment to find more fossils to burn up to mess up global climate to create hurricanes for a second local destruction.

[Pop2mollys 412]

2GW under construction in Chile right now...

http://m.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/chile--316-mw-ac-of-solar-pv-came-online-in-2015_100022880/#axzz3xajRvsGu

[explo 617]

Wild general market takes focus of sector. Anyway here's the ASP update: http://pvinsights.com/index.php

Poly below $13 now. Cell pricing has stabilized. Wafer is still moving (multi up, mono down), but the moves are quite small.

Module pricing is no longer pressured by USD appreciation (ASP in China expressed in USD was stable), but the ASP was pressured by lower ASPs in the US market. Maybe due to early adjustments for the reduced import tariffs suggested in the preliminary review result or reduced demand due to ITC extension.

 

[explo 617]

17 hours ago, explo said:

IHS, Inc. has confirmed a wafer supply shortage.

Read more: http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/wafer-utilization-rates-to-be-highest-since-2010-on-back-of-supply-shortage_100022879/#ixzz3xoCwQ28Z

More comments on the conflicting view on whether there will be wafer shortage in 2016.

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/analysts-at-odds-over-looming-solar-wafer-shortages

 

[odyd 1,293]

As I said, and Colville repeats, for me this rest my case

This is especially true in China, and it is incorrect to assume that the SMSL is going to be working off a wafer supply demand forecast that is not fully in alignment with GCL, for example. While short-term pricing is a cyclic issue – and will continue to be – the reality of annual supply and demand in 2016 may see a far more controlled addition of capacity as and when needed. 

[explo 617]

I don't see any contradiction to my case either. I assume SMSL will get the wafer volume they need, but the price has changed.

I think your case is that the cost benefit of having in-house wafer capacity hasn't increased much for SMSL, right?

 

[odyd 1,293]

No, my case is there is no wafer problem fro tier1. IHS is clown outfit is my second case. And I rested both.

[odyd 1,293]

If you have re-balanced your portfolio this week, and never entered this poll (below)or you have not updated it recently with your holdings please do so by clicking the title. I am updating the holdings with today's prices and will post results on Saturday.

 

The portfolio has still paper $1M in cash to add to positions based on our portfolio value poll.