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Solar Investor
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solarpete last won the day on November 19

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About solarpete

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  1. This is just my personal opinion, mind you--but I don't think yesterday's action had anything to do with the panel news. If anything, the prospect of more panels entering the US should be a positive for all inverter makers, as all of those panels need some kind of inverter. I think whoever's screwing with this stock isn't done yet. Every time there is a piece of good news, there's a sudden wave of selling--as in on the order of a million shares sold within half an hour or less. It sure looks to me like "someone" just doesn't want this stock to rise too suddenly. Now it has risen nicely off the $17 low--but it never should have gone that low in the first place. Like I said, I'm not normally a conspiracy theorist, but this is the third time this stock has been hit by what sure looks like a coordinated short attack. So my take is that it's currently completely impossible to predict day-to-day actions of this stock. Good news is liable to be met with a quick 5-10% drop in stock price. But long-term, this is still my favorite in the solar space. And in the meantime, the volatility is good for trading, if you can stomach the occasional free-falls. BTW, DQ has suddenly returned from the dead. 5% moves every day, although on average volume. Looks like someone is building a position. Hope that continues next week! Solarpete
  2. Exactly the argument I was making to Klothilde. Current projected earnings are too low.
  3. There's absolutely nothing wrong with looking for concerns. Indeed, that's why we're all here. But at some point, track record starts to matter. When you smell the same rat for quarter after quarter, all while the companies in question continue to execute, don't be surprised when people start to question your sense of smell.
  4. Good question. I'm not normally a fan of conspiracy theories, but with solar, I sometimes wonder. Take ENPH, for example. More good news reported this morning (they're starting to take pre-orders for their storage solution, meaning they finally have that tech ready to go--and that's a completely new product for them, opening up an entirely new profit source), so after initially rising, of course the stock tanks by 5% by end of day. It sure seems like solar stocks just don't react to good news the way stocks in other industries do.
  5. Lest we forget, China is not the only market driver these days. A few more projects like this, and everyone will need to expand capacity again: https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/renewables/egypts-massive-18gw-benban-solar-park-nears-completion
  6. Thank you. Good luck with FSLR.
  7. ???? I'm QUOTING your EXACT words. Your pattern is well-known: this quarter is gonna be lousy. Oh, wait--this quarter was actually pretty good. Well, NEXT quarter will be lousy. Oh, wait, guidance for next quarter is actually pretty good. OK, then, next YEAR will be lousy. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Looks to me like DQ, CSIQ, and JKS finally are figuring out how to make money consistently even in lousy market conditions (lousy by your definition, anyway). Probably because of the effect of scaling--produce and sell enough, and even slim margins lead to profits.
  8. "...things will stay nasty for a long while...." Your exact words.
  9. They made nearly a buck a share in Q3. They're guiding for better results, not worse, in Q4. All this during what are supposed to be life-threatening business conditions according to you. Yeah, I'm OK with THOSE numbers.
  10. This timeline is true for the impact on the business. The question is, what would be the impact on the stock price? Given historical precedent, any such announcement will have an immediate, possibly dramatically negative effect. That is the ultimate risk to an investor. Now again if history is any indicator, any such selloff may turn out to be overdone, and offer a good ENTRY point into the stock. But that would be at a significantly lower price than today. So for now, there is a good argument to be made to stay on the sidelines with FSLR until we get a clearer picture of what their future will actually be.
  11. The risk is the same that it has been three quarters in a row now--that somehow, someway, all the pie-in-the-sky prognostications notwithstanding, come time to report earnings, they su… er, are less than expected. If investing was as simple as believing every company management's expectations, we'd all be stock market millionaires.
  12. Precisely!! The point is, THEY HAVEN'T DONE THAT YET. Yes, I know that's the plan, but the plan is LATE. In the meantime, as Klothilde points out, the price from the competition keeps falling. By the time they finally get their production ramped to the promised levels, what will be THEIR ASP? The danger is, not nearly as much as they originally anticipated. The article in question advocates for remaining on the sidelines, until investors have more visibility into what those earnings will actually be, because there is significant risk they will be less than expected. I think that's sound advice, because if this risk materializes, the stock will certainly drop sharply, if not crater outright. The danger is by the time you know the earnings are as good as expected (if that turns out to be the case), you will have missed the initial part of what should be a longer-term rise. Personally, I'm OK with that--I'd rather miss out on part of a gain, if that means avoiding the potential of a huge loss. So I interpret this article to just be a discussion of risk management in FSLR stock--nothing more, nothing less. It's not an "attack" on anybody or anything.
  13. You consider ANY article criticizing FSLR's recent financial performance as "cheap and trashy." I'll turn your own criticism right back on you: you just don't like it when I smell a rat in the (financial performance of the) company you invest in.
  14. A good point. But the question is, how much money have they made doing this? So far, the answer is not much. THAT is the concern some of us have with this company, and that's what I see as the point of the Seeking Alpha article. The greatest tech in the world doesn't do an investor any good if the company can't monetize it.
  15. I think these two sentences summarize it well: The company has to prove to us that it can deliver. The company switched to the "overpromise and underdeliver" mode in recent years when it comes to sales and profit.
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