Jump to content

solarpete

Solar Investor
  • Content Count

    579
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    36

solarpete last won the day on December 10

solarpete had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

89 Excellent

About solarpete

Profile Information

  • Location :
    Colorado Springs

Recent Profile Visitors

3,974 profile views
  1. solarpete

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Similar to what's going on with ENPH. When they start "showing the money," the squeeze is going to be epic.
  2. solarpete

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Not much shorting going on--trading volume is too low. Just the usual reaction of a solar stock selling off on what is actually good news. Happens in other names too. Usually the selling stops after a day or so, and the stock then starts to climb. FSLR should do well over the next couple of days (barring another Trumpertantrum tanking the markets again).
  3. solarpete

    First Solar (FSLR)

    I do agree with you there. But that narrow spread is what it's been like for the past several years already--nothing new there. The big event all solar investors are waiting for is grid parity everywhere, which will drive the next explosion in demand, which will drive profits even if the margin is narrow. We'll see about DQ. Yes, there is new capacity coming online. But their energy costs are also dropping 20% in Q1. That should help them remain competitive.
  4. solarpete

    First Solar (FSLR)

    What are you talking about???? The CNs (well, what's left of them--JKS and CSIQ) are actually UP 30-50% off their lows, and holding steady despite the market tanking 400 points/day. Even DQ never hit your predicted teens (although it came darn close), is up 25% from there, and is also not falling back down. It looks to me like "the market" has called a bottom on the CN solars. Barring unexpected bad news, the expected direction is up from here.
  5. solarpete

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Except that Chinese solars haven't traded at valuations equivalent to their US peers in what? Over a decade? Why should that change now? Don't get me wrong--I still have shares from the mid-30s, so I'd love to see these stock prices. But it will have to be from earnings, not an increase in P/E. And that's still 2+ years away.
  6. solarpete

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    What are you talking about?? Having a position in CSIQ from a much higher level, I'm GLAD it didn't go through--I think the share price will go well above $20 in the next 2 years! It was a lowball offer, and I'm glad he didn't get the company on the cheap!
  7. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    With the writedown on their exiting the wafer business, yes. I'm more interested in the results excluding such one-time items--were they still profitable in their core poly business as selling prices declined? And, of course, guidance going forward is key--but that's true of any company in any business.
  8. solarpete

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Define "tank"--at current prices, I'd say it's "tanked" already. I don't think earnings will be that bad for CSIQ, DQ, or JKS--most of their production in any given quarter was usually put under contract long before then, so unless they have issues with contract cancellations, earnings shouldn't be that far off what's expected. The bigger question will be the outlook for margins for the next quarter--that's where you'll see the impact of declining ASPs. And that could be the catalyst for the next wave of selling.
  9. solarpete

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Mark, Relax. Nothing has changed in the big picture. Things are challenging right now. But grid parity everywhere is coming, and with it the age of solar. The China news is added juice. Things will look very different two years from now. The big companies aren't going under. Until then, use the volatility for swing trades if you have the capital and stomach for it. Otherwise, concentrate on the future and ignore the intermediate swings. Qu may come back with a new offer, or maybe he won't. I actually hope he doesn't, as I think CSIQ will be worth more than $18 by 2020. And the longer he puts off any new offer, the more obvious that should become to the Board. But whatever he comes back with, it's got to be more than the current price. So I don't see any benefit in selling right now. Solarpete
  10. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    DQ continues a solid recovery, an overall red market notwithstanding. Still no news. But perhaps something has leaked that their situation is not as dire as some predict? Then again, this stock is so thinly traded, maybe it's just more of their usual volatility.
  11. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    Dang I missed that they had fallen to $20. I would have taken a small position there. No news, but just average volume. And other solars are up on the same lack of news as well. CSIQ absolutely plunged early, only to now be solidly green. Seems like the usual pattern for all solars--down hard every day for an extended period of time, then a little bit of a retracement, then back to the downward slide.
  12. solarpete

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Here's an article underscoring my point. Even city councils and utility commissions are starting to see the renewable light: https://earthjustice.org/news/press/2018/glendale-hits-the-brakes-on-500-mil-gas-fired-power-plant The demand will be there. Solars just need to learn to grow their business sustainably, not through these bimodal boom-bust cycles.
  13. solarpete

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Still better than reporting Friday after Thanksgiving, after the close (wry grin).
  14. solarpete

    Solar News

    Agreed the next few months will be challenging for DQ. My point is it's not JUST DQ, though. It will be challenging for ALL poly producers. And they all KNOW that--and STILL are moving ahead with their expansion plans. So either they're all just plain economically suicidal, or they think there will be a light at the end of that tunnel.
  15. solarpete

    Solar News

    Good point. So you're saying the low-cost producers will still prosper even in a low-demand environment, as the higher-cost producers will eventually be driven out of business (after a period of them selling below cost, as REC apparently did). But that sounds promising for DQ as well.
×