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solarpete

Solar Investor
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solarpete last won the day on September 27

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About solarpete

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  1. Not a clue. Been wondering the same thing all day. SPWR was also hit hard, but there's no news that I'm aware of. And volume was above average, which coupled with a big drop is never a good sign. Can't imagine a leak of bad earnings, though, because they were sold out for the quarter. If we bounce right back up tomorrow, it was some sort of algorithm-driven selloff. If we don't, something's up--and I have no idea what that might be.
  2. Given time, as far as I know, no. The concept of an inverter in general cannot be patented. Having said that, I'm sure they have patents on their specific ASICs. And as usual, the devil is in the details. It took them years to get their tech tweaked just right. So anyone else wanting to do the same thing would presumably have the same learning curve. I would expect a competitor to eventually emerge. But right now, no one is on the horizon.
  3. Look a little deeper. The previous issues were due to prior management overpromising and underdelivering while they were still developing their technology. Those issues appear to be fixed now. The technology works, and is in demand, while a new management team has stopped the overpromising. If anything, they're reticent now to give rosy forecasts. And the earnings forecasts you mention are too low by at least half. They're expected to make $0.25 THIS quarter. That already puts them at $1/yr looking forward. But they're just getting started growing their business. By this time next year, I fully expect them to be earning $1/qtr, not $1/yr. With a 20 PE, that makes them an $80 stock at that point. Read some of the discussions on their Yahoo message board. Yes, it's Yahoo, so you have some of the usual antics, but it's not bad. And a few posters appear to be industry insiders, who provide detailed technical discussions of what's to come. Those discussions are why I'm so optimistic. I don't think the market, or analysts, have a clue yet as to the ultimate potential of this technology.
  4. Who says they're axing subsidies because they "ain't got the money?" It's a centrally run economy--they have money to do whatever they want. I think they're eliminating the subsidies because they want the industry to finally stand on its own two feet. While the technology was still being developed, governmental support was necessary. The technology, including the cost of production, has now advanced to the point such support is no longer necessary, but the industry is used to it and reluctant to give it up. The transmission lines are necessary, plain and simple, to make use of their solar resources. And they want to switch to solar because of the air pollution from coal.
  5. Don't wait too long. They report earnings in a week (Oct 29). They're already on a pre-earnings run up. I look for them to climb back above $30 before earnings, and to $35+ afterwards.
  6. It is according to the article I posted earlier. (Which refers to grid "parity," which we all hope won't turn out to be a "parody.") The bigger problem has been grid connectivity. The sun is cheap out on the western steppes and deserts of China. The huge population centers are in the east. You gotta get the electricity across thousands of kilometers to bring the supply to the demand. That's why China is building these huge new DC long-distance transmission lines. Otherwise you end up idling your commercial solar facilities in the west.
  7. Good!! The time has actually come to take this step. They need to do it carefully and not crash the entire industry--but I think their central government is smart enough to know that. Once this industry is competitive everywhere free of subsidies, demand should once again explode.
  8. I understand the reluctance to invest in solar (the buy-and-hold model), but you really should check out ENPH. Even with their rise from $4 earlier this year, they are still a possible double, or more, from here. Their situation is nothing like a poly or panel maker. Their inverters are NOT a commodity (at least not yet)--they're a genuine tech company in the solar sector. Don't take my word for it, of course--but don't ignore them, either. Take the time to do a little research. I think you'll like what you find. Solarpete
  9. A good discussion of solar grid parity and subsidies in China: https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-now-cheaper-than-grid-electricity-in-every-chinese-city-study-finds Some good news (grid parity is basically here), some bad (that doesn't automatically increase the uptake of solar).
  10. Been there, done that (wry grin)! I'm concerned with the continued steady drop in DQ. Has me wondering if Klothilde is right in her pessimism, and if bad news has already leaked somehow. I'm just a little heavy in it--I bought a couple of extra trading positions on the way down, expecting a rebound that didn't come. But like you, I'll wait until earnings to reassess.
  11. Perhaps more of a calculated risk. If they make that $1/share Klothilde expects, and if they guide for similar or better for next quarter, they should certainly move back up to the mid-60s. It's only if they don't meet those lofty expectations that trouble may set in.
  12. At current valuations, I'm not saying ENPH is the cheaper stock. Its rise has been meteoric, and at $35 it definitely got way ahead of itself. But I think it DOES have the better PROSPECTS. If FSLR executes as you expect, they should do well for what? A year? Before competitor pricing starts to pinch them again. Right now, ENPH HAS NO COMPETITORS, at least not on an apples-to-apples comparison. SEDG makes string inverters, which use high-voltage DC and are not "smart". ENPH makes microinverters, which use low-voltage AC and are "smart", and in the process of becoming smarter (a new generation is set to start shipping in Q4). Until a competitor emerges offering THAT sort of technology, I see no end to ENPH's expansion of its market share, and therefore of its earnings. Now of course it would have been better to invest in them when they were in the single digits, when the market was still in the "let's see what you've got" phase. But now that they've started to prove they're for real, I doubt we'll see those prices again. The current price is the premium you pay for now investing in a proven technology, instead of a speculative one. And given the current wide-open path for expansion for ENPH, I think there are still plenty of juicy profits ahead.
  13. Read my previous reply, and look at the earnings trajectory. They have one serious competitor (SEDG), and they're in the process of outpacing them, with no indication from SEDG they will be able to match the improvements ENPH offers in terms of safety and reliability. So ENPH is in the process of pulling AWAY from the competition. FSLR's only advantage over Chinese solars is price, and with prices coming down worldwide, that advantage is set to erode, not expand.
  14. I only take improving future earnings as a given for ENPH. DQ may very well disappoint this quarter, which is why I'm not increasing my exposure to it. (And I dang sure wouldn't put 100% of my portfolio into it!) ENPH has had several news releases indicating they're continuing to grow their customer base, which should lead to higher and higher earnings. (If I HAD to pick just one company in the solar space, right now that would be ENPH.) If FSLR does as you expect, I'll tell you "congratulations"! I'm not rooting for anyone to fail here. I just think FSLR is no better and no worse than any other solar in terms of likelihood of growing their earnings. They DO have the advantage of having a solid balance sheet, which should at least eliminate the possibility of bankruptcy. But as for the future of the stock price? Your argument appears to be that if demand increases and they get no pricing pressure from their competitors, they'll do fine. Well, no kidding!! So would any other solar. That last one is a mighty big IF, though.
  15. OK, agreed that like solar, you have to be riding the right horse here, and your ride may take several years, with plenty of dips along the way. But the biotech space is crammed with hundreds of companies, if not thousands. Unless you have inside information, I think it's very difficult to pick those winners in such a crowded field. Perhaps the index fund is the way to go here.
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