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solarpete last won the day on January 19

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About solarpete

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    Colorado Springs

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  1. Solar News

    I REALLY doubt that. That issue is just too small to get caught up in the shutdown mess.
  2. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Hard to say. Trina's went through in what--about a year? And JASO is now 2 years and counting and still not done? So I doubt we're within a month of a buyout closing. Plus, what's to prevent CSIQ from pulling a Trina and lowering the bid? (Or was that JASO? All these buyouts are starting to confuse me....)
  3. Daqo (DQ)

    Don't beat yourself up about it. You have a nice profit. Good job! Nine times out of ten, when I got greedy and tried to squeeze just a little more out of a winning position, I wound up costing myself money in the end. And kicking myself for it. Set your sets on a reasonable gain. And TAKE IT when you have it. Then go look for another good setup. If you're looking for more, consider a trading position in FSLR. Nice little pullback from yesterday's jump. And the prospect of further gains if Trump imposes tariffs, which is highly likely.
  4. Daqo (DQ)

    Do you really think Trump will forego tariffs on Chinese PV panels because one US company asks him to? He didn't seem inclined to do so when the entire SEIA did. Given yesterday's comments about certain foreign countries, our "stable genius" Dipsh*t-in-Chief (sorry--I meant "Diplomat-in-Chief," of course!) will be looking to make a new headline to turn the media's attention towards. China is always a favorite target for him and his followers. I will be VERY surprised if he doesn't impose tariffs.
  5. Daqo (DQ)

    Bingo!! If it were as easy as buy-and-hold the current leader, we'd all be megabazillionaires by now. While the overall outlook for the growth of solar PV is excellent long-term, short-term market conditions for individual companies can and do change rapidly, which can be catastrophic to your portfolio if you're over-exposed to the wrong company at the wrong time. There is nothing wrong with buying DAQO now if you think it's going higher. Just don't think you can buy it and FORGET about it for the next few years. Track their earnings and be prepared to jump ship if demand drops or their competition increases.
  6. Daqo (DQ)

    That's the way I do it these days. When a stock is near or at its high, I actually want just a small exposure. Yes, it could go higher, so a small lot of trading shares lets me participate. But you never know when the music will end--when a stock keeps making higher highs, and you're all in, when should you sell? Because when it does pull back, it can drop hard and fast, and keep dropping, so you lose most (or even all!) of your gains. And trailing stops don't work with solars--they're too volatile, especially DQ. So when a stock is at its top, I have just a small exposure. But if it pulls back, AND THERE'S NO CHANGE TO THE UNDERLYING BUSINESS CASE (that's a key caveat!), then I start buying more. The more it pulls back, the more I buy, until I hit a limit on how much of any one particular stock I want to own. Then I start selling the individual trading positions as it climbs back, so that by the time it's back at its top, I'm back to just a small exposure again. Never all in, never all out (unless I think it's overvalued--then I won't touch it; there's too many other, undervalued stocks out there). This approach has worked much better for me over the past year than my former buy-and-hold, or all-eggs-in-one-basket approaches. Of course, the past year has been a good one for stocks overall, but solars just kind of meandered, and most of my trading is still done in the solar sector (because of the volatility, which is good for this approach). And DQ is currently a good candidate. It has very high volatility, so lots of 2-3% pullbacks, and so far no change to the underlying business case (poly profits are still good). We WILL have to watch the profitability in the next year, when that additional China capacity comes on line. But for now, enjoy the ride!
  7. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I'm actually surprised at that. The shareholder vote has not yet been held. Am I just naïve to think there is at least the possibility that major institutional holders will vote NO, based on the potential shown from all these headlines?
  8. Solar News

  9. Solar News

    Here's an interesting discussion of LO3, and blockchain energy trading in general, from an electronics engineer journal: https://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/networks/blockchains-will-allow-rooftop-solar-energy-trading-for-fun-and-profit
  10. First Solar (FSLR)

    Agreed that new FSLR highs are probably on the way, sometime after 13 Jan, when Trump most likely announces new high tariffs on Chinese solar panels. I'm sure you've all seen the news reports speculating about this. He wants to punish China in general, and he seems oblivious to the possibility of losing tens of thousands of jobs in solar PV installation in the process. I expect a short-term violent reaction, with JKS and CSIQ tanking (unless CSIQ is specifically excluded--which I doubt) and FSLR shooting up. Yes, we on this forum know there are other factors (most of JKS' business is in China anyway, CSIQ has a buyout offer on the table, FSLR is already sold out for the next 2 years) that should dampen the effect of whatever decision is made, but I doubt the rest of the market does. Could offer an opportunity in CSIQ if it does tank significantly below buyout offer.
  11. Trading Solars

    And all 8 already voted for this provision once. Was it because they didn't realize that provision was in there? Maybe. But an equally, if not more likely scenario is they do know, and while it may irk them somewhat, it's not enough to cause them to vote no on the entire bill.
  12. Trading Solars

    I wish I were as hopeful. These people are not rational decision-makers. They are populists, meaning they want to enact what sounds good in a 30-second soundbite to about 30% of uneducated, angry Americans, because they think those 30% will re-elect them. They simply do not care about unintended consequences. Perhaps there will be a few rational people in the room. But it remains to be seen if they can influence the outcome.
  13. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    But that's actually quite a positive article--no reason for a > 3% solar slump across the board. More likely it's the tax bill provision--that sure was news to me!
  14. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    What's in it for Republicans in general is they get to keep their jobs if they pass something--like I said, anything--called tax reform. Or at least they think they risk losing them if they don't pass something. So yes, this might hurt their constituents, and even their own pocketbooks a little bit--but they think it's still better than being voted out of office for incompetence during the next election. The sad fact is we have very, very few people in Congress who are there for the greater good--most are there only for personal gain, be it money or power. And I have reasoning to back up that claim: if you truly believe in the greater good, you are willing to make hard choices, even knowing you might not get re-elected. If you value re-election above all else, you're willing to sacrifice the greater good for your own continued benefit. Now how many Congressmen do YOU know who are willing to put the greater good ahead of their own re-election?
  15. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Under normal circumstances, yes, Republicans in wind states would balk at this. But these are not normal times. Due to their failure to pass anything of significance so far, Republicans are desperate to pass something--ANYTHING--under the mantle of tax reform. I think right now, you could put up a bill to outlaw apple pie, and Republicans would vote for it if they thought they could pass it.