solarpete

Still holding the positions I bought years ago at much higher prices (Mark, I hear you about a lousy trade--sigh!), but I did sell my current trading positions during the recent pop to 21. But if there is a significant drop after earnings, I will certainly refill my trading positions then. Trading this ongoing volatility is really working. I'm in the green for the fourth year in a row now, and this year has been especially good--I've already made as much year to date as I did all of last year. So now I have a ton of buying power, should solars collapse again. For the first time, I'm actually looking forward to a price drop! So let the earnings fiascos begin (wry grin). I don't mean to brag--God knows I've made enough lousy trades over the years. But it looks like I've finally stumbled onto something here. Something about blind squirrels and nuts.... GLTA!

No estimate from me (I don't have the time to do the detailed research you and other posters here do--which is why I like this forum), but $0.56 sounds pretty good to me. I'd be pleased with that.

No, I consider FSLR overpriced because they're trading at $60 when earnings-wise they are at breakeven over the past 12 months. The current stock price assumes a return to profits that has yet to take place, and that in my mind at least is far from assured.

No, of course not. In fact, the concept of FUTURE earnings is what creates a "market" (a place of varying buy/sell offers) in the first place--if a stock price were just based on current earnings, there would be no significant disagreement on that number and hence no divergent buy/sell offers. But that vision of the future is just that--a vision, not a guarantee. Expectations of future performance must be based on, and tempered with, current execution. And the assumptions of that vision should be examined. FSLR is fairly priced for significant future earnings, at a time when they have no earnings at all. If the future comes to pass as expected, I don't see their share price advancing much more--the expectation of those profits is ALREADY baked in. If, on the other hand, the assumptions of a guaranteed market advantage in that future do NOT materialize, their profits will be less than expected, which will likely lead to a share price decrease. For me, that risk is too high right now. If FSLR were still sitting at $40, yes, that's a gamble worth taking. Not at $60. Especially not with 100% of your investment capital. But that, of course, is your decision, and yours alone.

If FSLR were already making those juicy profits you're anticipating, yes. But they're not--in fact, far from it. So my point is RIGHT NOW, FSLR is at best fully valued, and at worst grossly overvalued.

There's no "hate" towards FSLR. Just realism. The rosy projections for continued large quarterly profits are based on tariff protections and an S6 cost advantage over their competitors. Both of those are going away. That's not to say FSLR won't be able to adapt, but they already trade at 2-3x CN valuations. FSLR may be a viable choice for a diversified solar portfolio, but I would be VERY careful to make it my ONLY solar stock. They are richly valued right now, and they do face challenges in their future. Just my two cents' worth.

Congratulations! Nice to hear you've hit your goal.

I saw that--impressive! That's some serious volume. Even with (presumably) low margins, that should generate some nice profits. Also, it shows solar manufacturers are not dependent on China anymore. Any increase in China later this year will just be added gravy. Finally, this kind of demand for panels bodes well for polysilicon. All around good news, I'd say!

I think that's spot-on. The simple buy-and-hold strategy that is still touted by so many "experts" simply does not work in a cyclical industry like solar, especially where the troughs can actually wipe out entire players. True, the track record of active managers is even worse--leading to the persistence of the buy-and-hold advice--but I think that's because the vast majority of "active" managers don't take the time to perform the depth of analysis you do.

That's what I thought 10 years ago (wry grin)....

That would be a welcome change.

Travis turning positive on solars again. Not a lot of detail in terms of numbers, but I like his overall optimism. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/solar-energy-hot-2019-170400082.html

OK, say you're right. So what???? In other posts you make rosy prognostications for FSLR for 2021, and here you're worried about the next 3 months???? I'm normally quite the fan of Ralph Waldo Emerson ("A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds"), but this is ridiculous.

Understood. But again, the proof is in the reported earnings. And even if you're 100% justified in disregarding their forecast numbers, the fact remains that just making up your own numbers instead isn't any better.

One quick addendum: when I say cost-cutting has stayed ahead of price declines, I mean at least enough to prevent losses. Margins can decline, leading to reduced profits, but as long as margins stay positive, you're still looking at reduced profits, versus losses. And that's what I expect for the next several months, eventually followed by an increase in demand (either later this year or beyond), when the increase in volume will drive an increase in profits even with the reduced margins.