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Solar Investor
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solarpete last won the day on July 24

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About solarpete

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  1. Exactly. It doesn't have to happen in the next 3-6 months, and the more (little) ups and downs along the way, the better (for me, anyway). Heck, I make money if the stock price stays the same, as long as it continues these daily swings of +/- 1-dollar-plus. Just as long as it doesn't crater at some point. Good point about possibly needing more financing soon, though. I'll be sure to keep some powder dry if there's a significant pullback because of that.
  2. As I recall, the press release quoted increasing volumes (to record levels) and maintaining margins. That's the recipe for increasing profits. You don't need to earn it all in one quarter (aren't you the one who keeps reminding me the market is forward-looking?)--just maintain that trend for several quarters in a row. Q3 sounds like they'll be off to a great start. That trend also means I can buy any dips with confidence, as their underlying fundamentals are improving. That confidence is a key part of my frequent-trading strategy.
  3. Fortunately, in science we learn even from those experiments that fail. I'm still waiting for the roof tiles with integrated solar panels. And the windows (yes, that means with translucent solar panels). THOSE will be game changers (again).
  4. Congratulations on your CSIQ trading! I've been using ENPH and DQ, as they're more volatile, but I completely agree about not wanting to be overconcentrated in a single name. You just never know what can happen. But I am truly happy for you that it worked out well! Let's see what JKS reports. CSIQ and DQ certainly paint a rosy picture for the future. Is it possible solar is FINALLY on the way to SUSTAINABLE profits and growth?
  5. Last quarter could have been better, but it certainly was not as bad as some feared. And the outlook for the next quarter is great!! I'm happy. I'll be buying (and trading) any dips. Executed the first one yesterday and today already.
  6. Agreed that IRRATIONAL exuberance is always a bad idea when investing. But today's report gives plenty of reason for RATIONAL exuberance.
  7. Price action today (nice upward move on a strong market down day) doesn't seem to indicate a miss is expected, although volume was weak. And in the past, they've done better on earnings than many of us expected. Still, it feels like a 50-50 shot as to whether they did at least well enough vs. lousy this past quarter. I've lightened up on my trading shares in advance of the announcement (today's bounce allowed me to do so with one final round of solid profits), so either way, I'll be ready to enter new trading positions once the direction is clear.
  8. I think the last 2 sentences of the article say it all.
  9. God, I hope you're right! I've been waiting FOREVER for CSIQ to get back above 30....
  10. They do for now (have a competitive advantage). Their inverters are "smart" inverters that tie together energy production (from panels) and storage (from batteries). From what I understand, their current inverters (IQ7) are already cheaper and more reliable than their competition (mainly SEDG), and they had to add a new production line to at least try to keep up with demand (how's that for a nice problem to have?). Their next generation (IQ8, due out late this year/early next year) will add functionality AND reduce the component count, further increasing reliability and decreasing production costs. Of course, inverter technology is widespread, so I wouldn't say they have a moat. But they've got a 2-year head start on the competition for what IQ8 can do, so they should be able to enjoy the position of industry leader for a while. Yes, they are expensive, so caution is warranted. But I think estimates of $1 EPS for all of 2020 are low. They just made 18c last quarter, and that's expected to double next quarter. I think it's reasonable to assume somewhere around 50c per quarter next year, probably continuing to grow throughout the year. That makes the P/E more reasonable. Read the transcript of their recent earnings call and look at what their CEO is saying in terms of demand for their products. And BTW, this CEO has been conservative, if anything, in his predictions. Their previous one was not--but they're a turnaround story, and this CEO is one reason why. They've quintupled (!) this year already, and normally I'm VERY leery of investing in a company at an all-time high. And I keep my exposure at the high price levels limited--but I aggressively increase my position on any dips (and promptly sell those trading shares when the price increases again). Compared to FSLR, they're still cheap, and they should enjoy at least as much growth from their IQ8 as FSLR should from their Series 6, at least for the next couple of years. If I HAD to put all of my eggs in one buy-and-hold basket (which I of course don't do), this would be it, even at current price levels, based on their proven growth last year and their expected growth the next few years. I don't think I've ever found a more compelling story in any stock I've ever looked at. I've traded them very successfully this year (not hard to do in a stock that's quintupled during that time), and I look forward to continuing to do that for at least 2 more years.
  11. I didn't say abandon your FSLR position. You've obviously done quite a bit of research into their financials and feel comfortable with your risk/reward ratio with them. I'm saying if you like their story, ENPH's is quite similar--better, in fact, because they're already profitable, and their profits are only expected to grow, at double, if not triple-digit rates. They literally can't meet demand right now, but have recently expanded their production capacity to address that, plus they have new technology in late stages of development that will decrease their costs and thereby drive future margins. Sound familiar? My recommendation is purely from a diversification and risk-management point of view--I'd rather own two great companies than just one, because you never know what might happen to any one individual company. Take it for what you paid for it (grin)....
  12. If you're in FSLR because of the prospects of near-term profits, you really should check out ENPH as well. DYOD (do your own diligence), but that's their story in spades.
  13. In case anyone is trading FSLR, not just holding for the long term: https://www.investopedia.com/first-solar-reported-nearing-its-august-risky-level-4766607?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral&yptr=yahoo
  14. Well, good luck! I think you'll need it.
  15. Not that horrible, in that they improved from Q1 (which really WAS horrible), but they still have issues. Record shipments and still a loss. Reminds me of the JKS/CSIQ "Profitless Prosperity" period of the last few years. Gotta admit, I just don't see $60/share for this kind of financial performance. DQ and CSIQ report by mid-August. Let's see if they managed to eke out any profits. If they did, it becomes REALLY difficult to justify the share price differences.
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