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solarpete

Solar Investor
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solarpete last won the day on August 10

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About solarpete

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    Colorado Springs

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  1. solarpete

    Solar News

    In case you're getting tired of all the doom-and-gloom, here's a positive perspective: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/solar-stocks-still-attractive-despite-150817355.html
  2. solarpete

    First Solar (FSLR)

    I hear you. Same thing for DQ, RUN, and ENPH. Nobody can sustain any momentum, although they're all making money (some more so than others), and the future is bright for all of them. Meanwhile Tesla loses $13/share/quarter, and is valued at over $300/share. Now I appreciate Musk's vision, but that's just plain ridiculous. Sigh....
  3. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    Good discussion all around. I'm gratified to hear they stopped selling during that irrational period in June. Good to know they have the financial strength to weather weak periods and follow that old adage, "when you find yourself in a hole, the first thing you need to do is STOP DIGGING." DQ seems to be one of the better managed solars. They have consistently made decisions that allowed them to, if not prosper, then at least do better than merely survive in very challenging situations.
  4. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    OK, so now you're predicting losses for Q3. We shall see. I'm waiting on a transcript for the call, to see if they gave guidance on margins for Q3.
  5. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    It's your dirty mind. They just MADE $1/share in earnings, when you confidently predicted your calculations showed they would be losing money. Your calculations were correct, by the way--just for the wrong stock. It's your beloved FSLR that couldn't stay above breakeven during this period. Of the two stocks, I know which one I'm more comfortable holding. It's just a shame the market doesn't reward results equally, otherwise we both know which stock would lead the other by $20 share price. I suspect that gap will now narrow, if not close.
  6. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    I have no problem with a discussion of any particular stock's merits. That's why we're all here. But I DON'T need a recommendation on what to do with my holdings, especially from someone holding an equally questionable stock. I can ignore it once. Twice. Three times, even. But after a while, it starts to (obviously) get under my skin. Enough is enough. This is not a Yahoo pumper/basher board. Let's stick to a discussion of the facts, and let everyone make their own investment decisions from there.
  7. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    If you're so concerned with short-term stock price movements, why did you hold your 100% FSLR stake (talk about putting all your eggs in one basket!) through their latest earnings, knowing they were going to be barely break-even at best? I politely suggest you worry less about other people's holdings, and more about your own.
  8. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    Yes, theoretically you can be producing at full capacity and still be incurring large losses. Theoretically, I can also take all my money and just chuck it out the window. The question becomes, who would do such a thing? The only reason to produce at a net loss is to maintain market share in the hopes of better days ahead. And even then, you would certainly reduce your production to the bare minimum needed for survival. Their press release certainly doesn't make it sound like they're fighting for survival.
  9. solarpete

    Enphase Energy, Inc (ENPH)

    Yes, I own it, although as is in keeping with my current investing strategy, strictly as a trading vehicle (I no longer do buy-and-hold with solars). Prospects seem to be good. They're borderline profitable now, and expected to become more so, slowly and gradually, the same way as RUN (another one I own/trade). Also, and of key importance to me, they have been fairly volatile recently (although that stopped a few days ago). That allows me multiple opportunities to buy small lots (relatively) low and sell (relatively) high in a short time frame (movement of 20c+). Finally, their CEO recently made some comments that hint at an earnings surprise. While there are never any guarantees in solarland, it would surprise me greatly if their stock price would collapse again. They (along with RUN) should make more and more money as the solar market continues to expand in the future. No one can predict the rate of that expansion, but I think it WILL expand. As such, I'd say they're a solid choice in the solar space, even for buy-and-hold.
  10. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    Thanks for that post! Good information. So they're already back to full capacity AND they reduced inventory. Full year guidance maintained (production, but not margin/profit, which can be expected to take a hit due to the lower ASPs). If they were now producing at a loss, I would expect production to at least be curtailed, so I take this as a sign they will still have profits, even during this downturn. I like it!
  11. solarpete

    Daqo (DQ)

    That's a pretty reasonable number. Certainly a far cry from predicting losses.
  12. solarpete

    Solar Investors Thread

    Robert, I just saw the shutdown notice you posted at the top of the page. I'm sorry to reply here, but I can't seem to find another way to reply (the Forum Admin subforum is shut down, I can't start a New Topic, and there is no Reply to This Topic link for many other forums). First, THANK YOU for all the years of effort, in both time and money, you've invested in providing this MOST VALUABLE discussion resource. I have learned so much from the members here, and I truly enjoy the civilized tone. May I ask what drove you to this decision? Is it only money (I'm certainly willing to contribute to keep the forum open), or do you find it not worth your time commitment anymore? If the latter, I certainly understand. But if it's the former, I'm sure many of us would be willing to help out. Thanks for any information you're willing to share. Respectfully, solarpete
  13. solarpete

    Solar News

    The price is already so far under the offer, I'm not sure how much it would drop further without it. But it's certainly possible. No, I'm not buying CSIQ at this time, because there's no action in it. The offer has been on the table for months, with no further news. And company developments towards improving profits also seem to be glacial at best. So while I do expect a long-term turnaround, I don't see short-term catalysts. I've switched my investing strategy for solar from buy-and-hold, which got me absolutely NOTHING over the long term (I lost all my boom gains again during the busts) to quite active short-term trading in stocks that display a fair amount of volatility. Currently, those are DQ, ENPH, and RUN. But if I had a longer-term horizon for new money, yes, I think CSIQ is a good buy here.
  14. solarpete

    Solar News

    My positions were all bought a long time ago, at much higher prices (in the 30s). The CEO obviously thinks eventually we'll get back there, else he wouldn't want to buy the company on the (long-term) cheap. I've held a long time--I'm willing to hold longer. So I hope that when the offer is presented to the Board, the company fundamentals will show a brighter future ahead, and they'll reject it. Or maybe Qu won't be able to come up with the money and won't be able to tender his offer. If he's serious, why hasn't he done so yet? So much, though, for CSIQ being "best of breed," as many of us thought so long ago.
  15. solarpete

    Solar News

    Or not (hope for a buyout, that is). I'm still hoping for no buyout and a long-term turnaround in the stock.
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