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Solar Investor
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solarpete last won the day on March 29

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About solarpete

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  1. Understood. But again, the proof is in the reported earnings. And even if you're 100% justified in disregarding their forecast numbers, the fact remains that just making up your own numbers instead isn't any better.
  2. One quick addendum: when I say cost-cutting has stayed ahead of price declines, I mean at least enough to prevent losses. Margins can decline, leading to reduced profits, but as long as margins stay positive, you're still looking at reduced profits, versus losses. And that's what I expect for the next several months, eventually followed by an increase in demand (either later this year or beyond), when the increase in volume will drive an increase in profits even with the reduced margins.
  3. ???? You're disputing their cost-cutting has stayed ahead of their price declines? Then how in the world do they still have any profits???? And they DO have profits. $1.20 last quarter, to be precise. At a time when the sky is supposed to be falling in on them, post-May 2018. At the end of the day, what matters is DO THEY MAKE MONEY. And their record over the past year, again during a time which was supposed to be extremely challenging, is that YES THEY DO. What is so hard to accept about this????
  4. Stating your track record is not a personal attack, merely reporting the facts. You consistently choose to disbelieve information put out by these companies, and at the same time you consistently underestimate their performance. Perhaps the latter is caused by the former. We all have our blind spots. Your words of caution are useful to remind me of mine, IF I find them based on sound reasoning. But when, upon examining your reasoning, I find you simply make up the numbers you want to use for your assumptions, while ignoring the numbers reported by the companies in question, well, no offense, but here in the United States we currently have a problem with people doing exactly that. Perhaps that's why I've become sensitized to the issue. Differences of opinion aside, I do still wish you the best of luck with your trading.
  5. Jinko is not a "serious" company???? I guess it's easy to criticize someone else's business model if you just choose not to believe their figures.
  6. Just like you've been predicting Daqo to lose money for the last three quarters and every time you were wrong. They don't need prices to rise (although that would be a nice bonus). They just need prices to stabilize somewhere, and to have costs below that. So far, their cost-cutting has managed to stay ahead of the price declines. I see no reason for that to cease.
  7. Every new low in poly (or any other component) price is "historic," and has been for the past 30 years. That's what happens when the price of an item declines over time.
  8. I said the second half of this year, compared to the first half. And the answer is, any company that sells more in the second half at the same margin.
  9. Yes, and here he seems to be confusing margins with profits. Margins are narrow, and will continue to be so (at least for the straight panel producers--wafers, cells, and panels are now commodities). That's why everyone wants to increase volume--it's the only way to increase profits. But with demand expected to pick up by 3Q 19, those increased volumes in the second half of the year should drive increased profits, even if margins remain the same. Things can change in a hurry, including for the better. Remember all the doom-and-gloom forecasts when China changed its internal policy last May. Now we find out last year, in total, wasn't bad at all. Isn't China supposed to officially announce something about a renewed internal subsidy soon? THAT should certainly raise expectations, when it happens. This is just one more installment of the swing between "solar will become ubiquitous and save the world" and "every single solar company is going to go broke tomorrow." I've already entered some new trading positions at attractive prices over the past few days, and I'm prepared to enter a few more if this downturn continues. Best of luck to everyone else on their trading as well!
  10. Looks like we're just in another of these selling waves that happen every so often. Nothing to be done but ride it out.
  11. Nope. Negative news out of the US. CSIQ had great earnings for the past quarter, but sh*t the bed with their forecast for next quarter. All this from the report of one company, which doesn't even sell into the largest solar market. If JKS follows suit tomorrow, things will REALLY get ugly....
  12. I think it's a bit more than that, don't you? They're guiding for revenues of what--half the previous quarter (don't have the numbers in front of me right now)? They'll still make a profit, so forecasts of losses are overly pessimistic IMO. And of course the future for all solar looks rosy in 2020 and beyond, when California's mandate kicks in and solar just becomes ever more competitive vs. fossil fuels. So long-term they should be just fine. But $40 by August? While I welcome your optimism, I don't share it. Maybe by August 2020....
  13. Yes, I seem to remember their Chairman being quoted as being focused on profitability--meaning they'd rather sell less, but at a decent price. Trading has worked out well for me for the past several years, including so far this year. DQ has greater volatility, so I prefer it over FSLR for trading. But DQ probably has a bit more risk, too--which is why I keep individual trading lots small. Good luck on your trades! Solarpete
  14. And the CNs DON'T have contracts locked in? I find that hard to believe. CSIQ gets a lot of revenue from selling projects, with correspondingly lumpy profits, so they're an outlier. Guess we'll find out tomorrow with JKS. If they also guide for lousy profits going forward, you're right. But OK. Say they make that $5. That's a P/E of 11 at TODAY's stock price. I think they need to make more than $5 to get any significant price increase. Of course, there will be volatility between now and a year from now, so anything is possible. But fundamentals say unless they increase their earnings, they're fully valued right now. Nothing wrong with trading the dips and rips in the meantime, though.
  15. Because they won't be able to charge a premium price for their no-longer-premium S6 product?
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