[Guest spiritcraft]

I guess you have to define "work". In this case, yes, it does not "work" for those who want things as they are. So now it is too cheap? I guess I have now officially heard it all.

[odyd 1,340]

Hi Explo, I would like to reply to you here on your points made on YGE news release. The average efficiency of 17.75% gives you 4.32 watts per cell, multiply this by 60 and you have 259W, per module. Due to sorting techniques they can probably make a lot of those. Now with CTM loss I would say they are 254-255W range. So the improvement is around 5%. Yes the capacity particularly new one. is all polycrystalline. They got back to SOL, TSL, JA and CSIQ levels. Yingli has a lot of going on for them in China. Regardless of their share structure and minority ownership , the company is becoming an new flagship (Suntech's place). I would not be too surprised if they start absorbing other names in deals like LDK announced.

[explo 648]

Hi Explo, I would like to reply to you here on your points made on YGE news release. The average efficiency of 17.75% gives you 4.32 watts per cell, multiply this by 60 and you have 259W, per module. Due to sorting techniques they can probably make a lot of those. Now with CTM loss I would say they are 254-255W range. So the improvement is around 5%. Yes the capacity particularly new one. is all polycrystalline. They got back to SOL, TSL, JA and CSIQ levels. Yingli has a lot of going on for them in China. Regardless of their share structure and minority ownership , the company is becoming an new flagship (Suntech's place). I would not be too surprised if they start absorbing other names in deals like LDK announced.

I used 4% CTM loss from SOL's description of 4.5% for mono and 4.0% for multi. That's how I got to 249w from 259w sum of cells. I'm not sure if CTM loss varies a lot and 4% is at the high end though..? Yes, Yingli will be the dominator in module shipments and thus revenue. Right now I'd say they are about to pass Suntech as the best Chinese brand and they have the most attractive product portfolio. That will make it easy for them to compete for market share. I'm a bit surprised with their focus on the domestic market, since markets like China and Germany should be used to soak up the glut of weak competition, while strong players grab shares in the high ASP markets. One way to get their PPE per watt averaged down is to utilize the demand for their products and the consolidation phase to pick up equipment dirt cheap. They have 18 cents in opex and interest and another 7 cents in depreciation. That's gonna eat up a lot of those gross profits. Still I think this is a game changer for my YGE view, together with the positive cost outlook they've given and it might be a second pick for me after SOL. YGE will remain and lead and over time they might work the structure out for more return to share holders.Main worry now is why they focus so much on China instead of for example trying to get big in quality and brand aware Japan.

[Guest greensolar]

Yingli Expects 2012 Panel Shipments to Exceed 2.2 Gigawatts

Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., a Chinese solar manufacturer, expects 2012 panel shipments of more than 2.2 gigawatts.

That exceeds an earlier forecast of 2.1 gigawatts to 2.2 gigawatts, the Baoding, China-based company said today in a statement. At that volume, Yingli expects to become the world’s largest panel maker.

“According to public data to date, we believe Yingli has evolved into the largest PV module supplier,” Chief Executive Officer Miao Liansheng said in the statement.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yingli-green-energy-reaches-historical-220000936.html

[odyd 1,340]

Interesting. This implies that 561MW of modules would garner revenue in Q4. I am very hopeful for others as this indicates huge domestic sales, nothing I have seen thus far in exports. However December could be the big one. Nothing moves with any regularity. I am optimistic now. In less than 3 weeks we should be able to see rest of the quarter. This is really good regardless.

[explo 648]

Very good news as YGE hasn't tracked great on the exports data. Some have been much worse, but some have been tracking ahead of guidance as well.

[Guest larryvand]

YGE has had the bulk of China wins. So does that mean that funding for those wins has come through and China is going all out to building those plants (which would mean other winners as well), or is that demand coming from both China and abroad?

[explo 648]

It suggests that China has been HUGE in Q4. Yge has not been exporting enough in October and November to meet guidance based on how much it was expected to ship to China. Still they'll beat guidance. If they are not exporting like crazy in December this means the China market has been much bigger than YGE expected and they've diverted shipment to it. Their guidance means they'll ship around 600 mw in Q4, which is at capacity, so they probably had to reduce exports to fill China requirements. JASO, JKS and LDK has also planned to ship a lot to China, but their exports have been even lower than can be expected from that. I'm now thinking that those that have focused a lot on the Chinese market have had more to fill there than they expected and have thus reduced exports. Others like Trina have also had very low exports. I think this makes odyd more positive on them, since it probably means that Trina's ambition to double shipments to China in Q4 were exceeded, that's why exports have been lower than expected. The shift in name ranking we've seen in the exports data, might reflect more who's going heavily domestic and who's going international than whos able to sell most. WSJ reported today that China targets 10GW new installs this year. This is just going to soak up so much of that Chinese capacity that would otherwise compete on international markets. Looks like the China boom is happening and the magnitude can pull the whole global industry up this year. I don't mean to get carried away, but I do feel something finally brewing here.

[Guest spiritcraft]

It seems so. I have a simplistic question. Is there a dramatic difference in ASP's for China like there was say a year ago? Any thoughts?

[explo 648]

Any thoughts?

A lot I continued my thoughts on this here: WSJ China plans to add 10GW solar 2013