[odyd 1,340]

I am reading on Polaris that Yingli s going to have 0.66 per watt cost for Q3 and .58 per watt for Q4. They said they will do 2.1 to 2.2GW, 36.7% China market in second half. There was a meeting held by Yingli about moving into the EPC business plans to have 5GW of projects in 6 provinces by 2015. Wow.

[explo 648]

Wow that is a lot of projects. Very interesting. Do you have a link? Short-term regarding averaging down and yge vs tsl. I think there are a few short-term things in favor of tsl. PPS tanked recently. Better balance sheet. And most importantly guidance given says yge will lose 150-200m in q3, thus joining the ranks of ldk and stp, while tsl guidance points to them staying at a 50-100m bleed level.

[Guest nanofrogfish_spf]

Those are pretty ambitious goals for projects. They would need some pretty good financial backing to make that happen. It's not surprising that the China demand this year has not lived up to earlier expectations...these things always seem to take longer than anticipated. But it is coming...so it could be possible to hit that 5GW in 3-years (I assume that would include pipeline). I guess the big question is how much margin will there be on those. Do those costs/W include poly?...they seem pretty competitive, especially Q4.

[odyd 1,340]

HI guys, yes on all-in, links below this is the site , if you using chrome will give you immediate translation http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn Pop this into the search : 英利 this is on costs http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20121115/401826.shtml this is on projects and power generation http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20121109/400677.shtml I got to be honest explo I do not think level of debt matters. Yes, Yingli has a lot of it, but they have means to manage themselves out of it. Their losses will be non cash: inventory provision and underutilized capacity depreciation. Nano I think they want to own those projects and generate power, which is even more than I expect. More and more I think about it I see how Chinese will make those to be successful. I do not think we , Western world in general have an idea, how powerful those desires are. At the same time, the stock exchange future of those stocks could go either way complete abandonment or massive appreciation in long term. I am attaching the excel file to show how I see this, check the % of China's shipments. They will meet their 2.1GW objective

[explo 648]

I got to be honest explo I do not think level of debt matters. Yes, Yingli has a lot of it, but they have means to manage themselves out of it. Their losses will be non cash: inventory provision and underutilized capacity depreciation.

Debt alone might not matter. I look at the capital allocation, i.e. how they take funds from investors and banks and allocate that for fixed assets and working capital. Banks will get what they pitched in back with interest. Share holders will get what's left. Right now that part is diminishing for YGE and other fixed asset heavy companies like LDK and STP. In case of BK banks and other creditors have asset claim preceedence over share holders. If you look at LDK the share holders claim on the company assets are now down to less than 10%. The companies might survive, but the share holder claim has been wiped out, unless they pitch in new capital. In LDK's case that would mean in the order of a billion, i.e. $10 per share (x10 more shares needs to be issued), to get some substantial claim back. Basically those that took money from share holders and used it poorly by buying too expensive equipment are now letting the share holder take the blow for that poor capital management. How do you mean that they will manage out of the debt? I know the company can find ways to pay the bills, but I don't see how they can do that in a way that is good for share holders. The charges now taken on poorly allocated capital, like inventory and AR provisions for poor working capital allocation, and impairment and under utilization charges for poor fixed asset capital allocation (besides the regular heavy depreciation cost for spending too much on fixed assets), are non-cash for the quarter they are taken, but that is only because the cash burnt on this was paid in previous quarter. They still took the share holders and banks money and spent it without recoverability (and the share holder takes the full blow for both its and the bank's burnt money). From an insolvency perspective it might feel good that it is only non-cash losses, but I've never seen solvency as a problem, since these companies are liquidity backed by endless credit lines from SOE banks and local governments. Plants and jobs won't be lost, share holder claim on assets and business and thus on any future profits will be.

[Guest nanofrogfish_spf]

Very good post explo... Sometimes all the details on the accounting side makes my head spin (I can't see the forest thru the trees). Your post really gets right to the point; All those write-downs are just the final accounting acknowledgement of previously wasted investor capital, and it's primarily the stock investors' equity that has been lost. From a stock investor's standpoint, I just don't know how those companies in this industry that are Billions in debt can ever climb out of those huge holes they've dug for themselves, without further eroding the stock-holders' equity stake (barring some type of debt forgiveness). Again, thanks for that well written post...

[explo 648]

Thanks nano, you got my point. I should add that I recognize that some shares that used to cost $70 now is for sale for only $0.70. So capital burnt is baked in, even some of which has not been recognized yet. This buyers market in PV stocks (reflecting a buyers market in the industry) is why as I'm still positive on some names, but you have to be picky now. Pick those that have less losses left to recognize than what is baked in. Say that LDK lost $69.30 going from $70 to $0.70 in market value of its shares, then my point is that for companies bleeding that much those 70 cents are gone too. Its liabilities has now exceeded its replacement value in my book.

[Guest greensolar]

http://goo.gl/NjJlF

[explo 648]

$1.15 per watt retail for a kit. Seems low. Good for manufacturers that margins are compressed at retail level too, to spur demand.

[odyd 1,340]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yingli-green-energy-announces-largest-032200033.html