sunnypease

Solar Investor
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sunnypease last won the day on January 20

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About sunnypease

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  1. Another fear perhaps is this... Yesterday I listened to "Adventures in Finance" podcast (can be found on iTunes https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/adventures-in-finance-a-real-vision-podcast/id1210383304?mt=2). They interviewed Carson Block... some famous short seller who made his money researching fraudulent Chinese companies. According to this guy, there are many cheating Chinese companies. (I'm sure American ones too!) During these times of difficult market conditions might our beloved CN solars fake things a bit? I remember someone saying here that one of the CN solars had misled or lied on some occasion.
  2. No such luck for JASO down 3.3% today. I don't see any negative news. Why can't solar stocks just flatline when they run out of upward momentum? They have to turn around and crash back down. Aha. I see now. Oil.
  3. Poly has dropped about 5% each week for at least the last month. Meanwhile modules have dropped slower. Doesn't this mean that margins will be bigger for module manufacturers?
  4. I had a thought about Gordon Johnson's CSIQ endorsement. Gordon is hot on the heels of another Chinese market call. That was iron ore. He predicted the crash / slide that happened over the past couple weeks. So there may be people right now listening to his predictions. This might give some more kick to his CSIQ call. Also... this is a headline article today: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/us/politics/trump-advisers-paris-climate-accord.html Could be a nice up day.
  5. Hi Robert - Thanks for the warning re: q1 cyclical softness. It's good to keep in mind. I guess the little blip we saw was related to not horrible earnings mixed with a sequential rise in oil, plus the saudi report. RE market seems to love reports of Saudis getting involved. Saudi report of big RE investment seemed to be the reason for the late Feb - March run that went from bottoms to 30% up, until crashing back. Anyhow, the Q1 reports are some time away. Between now & then it seems like the market is starting to price that Trump's policies won't happen. On Friday, CN solars seemed strong in the face of that, however in my short 6 months observing I can't remember when solar stocks moved up while the market moved down. I guess the market won't like the YGE report. I hope negative reaction does not spill over to the other CN solars. I suppose it might.
  6. Poly has been tumbling hard for the past few reports, from what I remember. I keep saying it but not doing it.. very important to save the PVinsights numbers weekly into a spreadsheet for later analysis. One may find that it really does act as a good leading indicator for share price, and/or tier one ASP price.
  7. Looks like CSIQ did not win the bid. Their bid was 3.39. Winning bid was 3.15. These are INR (indian rupees). per kWH. Is there a site that keeps track of these recently signed $/kWh deals? Knowing this history is as important as knowing the current $/W module ASP. What we must be careful of as investors is this scenario: Costs can only go so low before there is a wall, which is the absolute cheapest price to produce. When the margin becomes negative, then the company which will survive is the one with the strongest financial reserves. Maybe this happens: ASPs fall to the point that CN solars are losing money. They lose so much money that they either fail, or they take on more debt. If they take on more debt, then their effective cost to produce is raised. Because FSLR has cash, it can wait & improve their process. Maybe FSLR, without interest payments, will be cheaper than CN solar plus interest payments.
  8. I guess if this keeps up, we can forget about any rise before the cn solars are out of their glut. Good call on selling on Monday. That would have been the day. Just seems like too much negativity now. North Korea, and then the uncertainty about tax reform which may remove solar, plus there will be 3 rate increases this year? And where is this demand that everyone is building out production? So far every week ASP price is going down 0.5% & the notes on pvinsights is that China demand is weak.
  9. Sorry I didn't link. Here it is: https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/04/11/4-things-you-didnt-know-about-canadian-solar-inc.aspx Seems to be nicely timed to the Fitch ratings thing. I wonder if he is desperately underwater with his SPWR stock... praying for a revival.
  10. Thanks for clearing up the debt issue guys. I am surprised that CSIQ is dropping so hard today relative to the others. I looked over the solar news sites & didn't see anything bad. Selling solar plants should be good. Could it be Travis' article?
  11. Thanks everyone for your responses to my posts. Speaking of CSIQ debt, I guess you all saw Travis' latest anti CSIQ article. He focuses again on CSIQ's mostly short term debt... He says over 2 billion of short term debt that would need to be repaid quickly if CSIQ ever hit a rough patch. I don't understand this well & it sounds bad, but then I know Travis seems to have some vendetta against CN solars. Has CSIQ's short term debt been discussed and conclusions made here already? Thank you- Matt
  12. Did anyone see that Fitch retracted its rating on CSIQ and stopped covering them. Is that a negative? Thanks!
  13. Aha! I thought it was just oil. That's good to know. Thanks for finding & sharing that Robert.
  14. Expect more of that! North Africa will become the saudi arabia of clean energy... all delivered to densely populated Europe.
  15. Good move on selling the Tesla. It's a great, innovative company... but no way are we all going to be driving Teslas in the future. Let it cool off & then get back in. Wish I'd grabbed some post Trump election. That was a nice ride!