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sunnypease

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sunnypease last won the day on December 15 2017

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About sunnypease

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    Pécs, Hungary

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    FSLR 10% CSIQ 25% 15 strike CAFD puts

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  1. sunnypease

    First Solar (FSLR)

    CS upgrading FSLR to neutral. ■ Section 301 Fears Overblown: Solar manufacturers and developers, including FSLR, reacted negatively on Friday 6/15 (down 3-7%) owing to concerns that the fresh round of 25% tariffs on Chinese imports (under Section 301) will raise module prices for developers and squeeze margins for manufacturers. Solar cells and modules are listed in USTR's new list under subheading 8541.10.00 ("Diodes for semiconductor devices, other than light- emitting diodes"). However, we believe the negative reaction is overblown for the space, as c-si manufacturers are supplying solar products to the US market from their Southeast Asia factories, which were set up in prior years to circumvent the ~30% Antidumping (AD) and Countervailing duties (CVD) imposed by the US on Chinese imports after 2014. ■ ..for FSLR as well: The negative reaction for FSLR is even more overblown, as the company doesn't have any Chinese factories (they are in Ohio, US and Southeast Asia) and instead stands to benefit from tariffs on competing products. That said, we still embed $2.60/sh for pricing benefits that resulted from separate Section 201 solar tariffs that were announced in January; this value would be at risk should the US soften or eliminate these tariffs as a negotiating strategy. See our 4/9 Trade War Impacts–Renewables and Utilities are Both Insulated and 6/6 FSLR: Near Term Protected, Long Term Still Needs Proving. ■ Valuation: Our $53 TP remains unchanged and is based on a multi-stage valuation, including DCF through 2022 and P/E and EV/EBITDA for core business thereafter. We see potential downside of $2.6/sh should Section 201 tariffs be eliminated and another $3/sh if firm-price bookings face cancelations. Our Grey sky value of $35/sh gives no value to growth from Series-6 deployment. Key risks include Series 6 production ramp, cost reduction, oversupply, and changes in US trade policy.
  2. sunnypease

    First Solar (FSLR)

    it may have been the quad witching. i don't fully understand how options work, but i understand it requires stocks to be bought and sold. However, options do not expire until the next day, so this must be brokers & MMs transacting ahead of expiration to settle up accounts somehow? I messed up buying calls Friday and wound up with 35 calls expiring in the money. Oops. So this morning I had 3500 extra shares. Yikes! Somehow my margin allowed this but I was trembling... PLEASE GO UP. The solar gods listened and sent FSLR up 50 cents or so and I sold those shares like a hot potato. Wound up making a little something on the deal too. Then later we broke over 52 and something.. wish I'd held on, but could not afford to be long that many shares if it dropped. Anyhow... its good we are turning positive again. Hope we can stay that way for a little while. rest of market seems to be acting giddy and crazy, so hopefully some of that bleeds over. FSLR is a tech company too!
  3. sunnypease

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Thank you SCSolar for the further detail & clarifications. It seems that these days the BOS costs are greater than the module cost & so I would hope that could be reduced. Perhaps by automating installation, especially in the US and Europe (higher cost of labor).
  4. sunnypease

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Wow. Don't knock yourself out. Here is the take from Credit Suisse on Friday's action: ■ Our take – Renewables: Solar manufacturers were down 5-10% on Friday morning possibly due to quad witching, market sell off, and concerns that the US would impose additional 25% duty on an expanded list of Chinese imports (which might include solar products). We believe the reaction is overblown as the oversupplied solar sector has enough non-China capacity to supply to the US market if required. We have not yet seen signs of consolidation upstream, but downstream micro-inverters have taken the first step. Declining cost of solar and storage continues to exceed expectations, while cities and states ramp renewable demand.
  5. sunnypease

    Trading Strategy

    Get your sheet together man! You could use hadoop or the cloud?
  6. sunnypease

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Thank you very much SCSolar & explo. SCSolar.. that was a really great future expense analysis breakdown. Just to verify, you think that 17.5c / Watt is the minimum price you see prices going to in about 10 years? Also.. because the supply chain is in China, these expenses are not really 17.5c / Watt, but are the equiv. RMB, correct? Then you say Opex, including shipping will be 0.04 / Watt more? And then you mention interest. Do you mean interest expense from LT debt? Thank you
  7. sunnypease

    First Solar (FSLR)

    I've realized yet another possible gremlin... First Solar has recently had some big projects in Turkey. As many are aware the Turkish Lira is down about 30-40% and had not yet started to recover. Meanwhile the fed tightening will cause further stress to other ROW markets. Thoughts anyone? Klothilde.. have you thought this point over?
  8. sunnypease

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Then there is the CdTe express lane. Direct from Ohio. The biggest swing state. Or from Vietnam (who doesn't love Pho.. and it's not China!) This is a company that is officially expanding at this point. It's an American "success story". If Trump gets too much heat on tariffs, First Solar is the American worker he can put his arm around. Plus, did we mention they have 2 years worth of production signed up for. So... FSLR's US future looks great. Meanwhile their Europe/India/ROW/China story looks worse. Lower Si module prices will mean very tough competition in those markets, correct? This, to me, is the biggest cause for concern in FSLR's story going forward... thoughts?
  9. sunnypease

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    The problem is that lower panel prices will arrive in lower PPA prices, correct? And will CSIQ be able to drop their cost structure to meet the sudden drop in demand? One danger I can see is that panel price is a smaller part vs BOS. If panel price decreases by 20%, the overall system may only decrease by 10% or less. This might not be enough to boost demand. Panel price might be forced even lower to spur demand. This is only my fearful, worst case thinking.. Have there been studies of how demand might be effected with various changes to panel price? Explo has a good point in that the science of improving efficiency / driving down costs is hitting the walls of physics. The problem is that policy makers are not scientists. They expect things that cannot happen. For example, cars that can go 70 miles per gallon. Or cars that produce a certain level of diesel particulates.
  10. sunnypease

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Shame. I just drove across Spain, from the south near Granada up to the north near Santandar. I saw only a smattering few solar panel installations & they looked old. There is so much empty land there and so much sun. UK has manage 26% of grid power supplied by solar. Why can't the rest of Europe do this?
  11. sunnypease

    First Solar (FSLR)

    I don't see any holes in your thinking. I think the reaction today was like... No whammies. No whammies. And then BOOM 6 whammies all on the same day. * Chinese Tariffs. People do not know exactly what the effect of this will be or how far it will go. * Barrons article downgrading utilities (power plant buyers) due to rate rise... though Thursday, post rate rise FSLR rallied. https://www.barrons.com/articles/utilities-and-real-estate-get-downgraded-as-the-fed-raises-rates-1529016650?mod=hp_RTA * part of the tariffs include tariffs on batteries. A lot of people talk solar storage as being crucial to solar. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-15/trump-s-tariffs-are-a-glancing-blow-for-wind-power-batteries * oil dropped 3.75% * today was options expiration day. Tail wagging the dog. * doom & gloom articles published Thursday & Friday from big business news sources: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-06-15/how-trump-s-china-tariffs-impact-the-solar-industry-video https://www.economist.com/business/2018/06/14/can-the-solar-industry-survive-without-subsidies A new one Friday night: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-15/trump-china-trade-spat-may-deal-solar-a-second-tariff-blow Yes, I think the Emergency Klothilde light is flashing & spinning now. What do you think of what is going on now Klothilde? Do you see a likely reason for what FSLR would sell off today?
  12. sunnypease

    First Solar (FSLR)

    How about a double tariff?
  13. sunnypease

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Everybody too busy buying Yoga pants stocks. One guy on Stocktwits explained it so eloquently: Not touching this until oil recovers. US stock market is run by frat boys with "analysts" telling them how to think.
  14. sunnypease

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Agreed. America has become the land of losers. Losers with 2000 nuclear missiles.
  15. sunnypease

    First Solar (FSLR)

    I feel like this could be one of those pretty rare chances where solar takes a day to react to big news. The China news broke on Thursday but market did not really move until Monday. Same with this I think. I'm thinking of buying some more calls. Bought a few hundred bucks worth now.
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