sunnypease

Solar Investor
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sunnypease last won the day on May 10

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About sunnypease

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  1. Thank you Robert for outlining your thoughts on Q2. Overall : JASO in Q1 report said they have some US orders with high 30s /W multi. This was end of May. Because CSIQ, JKS, JASO, SPWR produce in non-USD currencies, and the USD became weaker, their costs became greater in USD. 7% over Q2? Re CSIQ... Do you think CSIQ can still get only $0.36 ASP? Europe seems to have benefitted from higher ASPs (Solarworld went BK) And US probably higher because of 201 demand. pv.energytrend.com says that we might see a slowdown from China in the next few weeks. If that happens, the CN solar stocks could get hit. Also if FSLR / SPWR miss or disappoint, will the CN solars go down in sympathy? Retrospect impact.. do you mean retroactive tariffs if Suniva is passed? Re: SPWR. Q2 depends on if they can sell inventory or manufactured modules with a positive gross margin @ current Suniva boosted ASPs. Their position seems better than FSLR's with their pre-suniva contracted ASPs. Their 2017 goal was to sell inventory. Also they are running at reduced production rates. So if they can sell 3rd party panels at positive margin, it could boost their Q2 earnings. Do you know their cost to produce? How can I know this? Also do you know the duties they pay? Mexico might be a good place for a factory, post Suniva. SPWR can import to Mexico, and then forward to US, circumventing tariffs. Also much attention is on residential segment (commercial is booked & there isn't much power plant) Q1 residential was poor. Wet Californian weather was blamed. Maybe Q2 will include some missed Q1 demand. And maybe CA figured out their new time of use metering system. FSLR That's just the right piece of information about FSLR. They already sold 1.6GW at $700M. (44c ASP) And deliverable through 2019. Gordan said inventory is sold through Q3 2018 @ 49c. Between 2Q 17 and 3Q 18 they can produce max 2.75GW Series 4 and zero Series 6. 1.6GW sold at 44c ASP. max 1.15GW can be sold through 2018 w/ higher ASP. If they can push out 44c ASP delivery to late 2019, they can prioritize higher ASP deliveries. Maybe even in Q2? Or maybe they raise guidance this quarter based on these future Series 4 sales. Maybe they see another ASP drop -- after Suniva cliff (stocking now will allow de-stocking later, dropping demand) and want to make as much as they can now, hoping competitors will die with lower ASPs. But share price higher than pre early August 2016 reports. Seems like people will be disappointed by Q2. I am writing this now for 4 hours so I hope someone has a look.
  2. Thank you Explo. I guess FSLR price is up because of the assumed affect of 201, allowing FSLR to sell otherwise hard to sell Series 4 inventory. Do you think FSLR Q2 results will handily beat expectations? 50c / watt Series 4 does seem reasonable given a complete lack of 201 complications with CdTe. Also given what sounds like low - mid 40s for Europe sales.
  3. Q2 Europe market looks good for CSIQ & JKS... * prices reported to be 40 euro cents. About 43 USD cents average across quarter. (https://goo.gl/4e4T9y) * JASO had targeted mid 30 to high 30 cents per watt for Europe. (unclear if those were Euro or US cents) (https://goo.gl/eaA9dz) * strong Euro / weak USD benefits from Europe sales.
  4. Thank you Robert. It's hard to track all of this information. I'll compare possible CAFD sale gains vs recent losses. You are not convinced that FSLR & SPWR were able to sell modules as Gordon Johnson said their "FSLR contact" said? His claims do sound crazy. Gordon claims 49 cents ASP. He also says that inventory is sold through Q3 2018. The other analyst said 50 - 60c ASP. Seems too good to be true? Does being "fully booked" mean that you have sold your inventory? That is a lot of inventory! Stockpiling expensive, low efficiency CdTe technology seems risky if Suniva does not happen. It seems unlikely there are so many people who are willing to take that risk. If those people are buying @ .50 ASP for an existing PPA project then those people will have a negative IRR project. If demand is so high for FSLR modules, then why were no new FSLR projects announced this quarter. Can this be simple pump & dump technique from Gordon? Or is he trustworthy? https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Axiom+Capital+Upgrades+First+Solar+(FSLR)+to+Buy/13109389.html
  5. Not sure if this was discussed... but it looks like the 12th of July's jump was Trump solar wall echoes. http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/341934-trump-not-joking-about-solar-wall Two big moves within a month about this very dumb wall. When momo / event traders buy & cause these big, non fundamental based price swings... do those changes hold into an earnings report? Or will we see these guys exit before earnings?
  6. Could a CAFD sale cause an NRG-like spike in SPWR & FSLR share prices? I don't understand well enough what causes share prices to rise. I would think it is consistent earnings, not just one offs. I guess the market might very much like SPWR selling CAFD stake because it could generate cash that could pay down the big long term debt?
  7. Sounds about right. With the current steel deliberations, Trump already told Canada not to worry.
  8. Maybe the love of JKS has to do with their meeting with the Saudis combined with Saudis plan to begin RE investing. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4046472-5-billion-war-chest-renewable-energy-firms-will-saudi-aramco-invest Maybe CSIQ is hedging against trade restrictions & waiting on US plant sales.
  9. Trina also getting into perovskite. But from what I understand current tech breaks down after time & in light.
  10. just some forward thinking ( i think we need another topic like "strategy / ideas". So if Suniva is a no go, then we are going to see a drop off in demand. Well either way we are going to see a drop off in demand. If everyone is ordering now for the future. Then now we have a FIT cliff meeting a Suniva cliff.
  11. warning to everyone. I'm in with a 5% CSIQ stake.
  12. Could you find the original from CS? CS is all over the map with valuation methods. This is their JKS valuation from June 6. Just a 7.5 2018 EPS. " Estimates and valuation update: We lower our 2017 non-GAAP EPS estimate to $1.89 (from $2.34) due to lower gross profit in the year. But we increase our 2018/19 non-GAAP EPS estimate to $2.64/$2.77 (from $2.42/2.66) due to lower interest expense as the company has paid down its convertible debt. Our volume, ASP and cost assumptions are unchanged. Our TP of $20 is based on a 7.5x multiple over 2018 EPS (in line with 2014- 15 NTM average multiple), and reflects 1x replacement value. Key risks are potential US tariff, growing oversupply, demand weakness, and cost trajectory. "
  13. I looked at EPS back in 2014 & 2015. These years seem to be stable with good solar growth. Looks like CSIQ never managed to get more than a 10 PE. EPS in 2014 was 4.10 csiq topped at 40 EPS in 2015 was 2.93 SSIQ hit 40 once after 1st quarter with eps about 1.04 Odyd.. Your 2017 eps is 1.53 then how can we get to 26? S&P PE is now 26, then it was about 20. so you get a PE of 13. I see that we are on recovery slope. Valuations get stretched on the way up. Once it is over, the market may want EPS for PE 13. Can CSIQ deliver 2 EPS?
  14. CSIQ too I've never seen anything like this.
  15. he focuses only on 201 & boost to module prices. (though I swear I saw articles pointing to a slowdown... I'll dig around) the other issue is what happens to the price of solar plants. & the refunds from tariffs. Is that why you think CSIQ could hit your PT? Or you see multiple expansion overall.