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SCSolar

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SCSolar last won the day on April 9

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  1. No I do not see it as a typo. I see it as a market demand. Articles from China had been suggesting that the mono demand in China is weak because of the price disparity between a watt of Multi that was at $0.21 and a watt of High Perf Perc that was at $0.28. That spread was pushing builders to take multi over mono. So what you see is the dicotomy of low Multi production being suddenly in demand and the price rise with it, while Mono which is being pushed as the tech driven down to try and compete with price spread difference. Even the CEO of CSIQ indicated he expected the Mono Multi price to converge and get back to norms where the cost to build a project has little impact if Multi was to be used over Mono. That would be back down to a $0.02-$0.03 spread. The way you get there is to have Multi rise and Mono drop.
  2. The article is actually pessimistic overall for the year. They are suggesting 40GW. Most of the articles I have read and what JKS and others are suggesting is they expect an over under at 45GW.
  3. Only what the web shows. The web suggests they are a 200MW facility that assembles the modules in San AntonioTexas. They use Asian sourced components. They shut down their 100MW cell late 2016 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2016/10/03/mission-solar-energy-to-close-texas-cell-lines-lay-off-87-employees_100026343/ There warranty is 4 to 12 years on mechanical assemby and 25 yrs on power degredataion http://www.missionsolar.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/MSE-PV-Module-Limited-Warranty-2018-2019-4BB-5BB.pdf They wholesale for around $0.70/watt https://www.bluepacificsolar.com/best-solar-panels.html It looks like they are a subsidiary of OCI lmtd, those same Multi National guys who make Poly in Seoul Korea. http://www.missionsolar.com/about-us/ They started up around 2014 and have panels installed in the Alamo1 power plant located in San Antonio area. https://newsroom.cpsenergy.com/made-san-antonio-solar-panels/ Hope this helps.
  4. Has anyone noticed that PV insights has a new wafer category for 158.75MM mono wafers. These are the new rectangular half cut cells that are being used in the new highpowered 415W 72 cell modules. http://pvinsights.com/ 158.75 / 161.75mm Mono Wafer 0.460 0.415 0.439 According to this article , these wafers are in very high demand. Jinko is migrating/has migrated their mono wafers to this new size, and GCL is doing the same for Multi cells. The deliver around 4% more power and demand a higher price than the cost to manufacture. Demand is so high that Jinko and their 5GW have gone to buying these wafers from outside sources to meed demand as customers were going elsewhere. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190408/973273.shtml "As the initiator of the 158.75mm square single crystal specification, Jinko Energy not only switched its own 5GW monocrystalline silicon wafer to 158.75mm in the fourth quarter of last year, but also purchased the silicon wafer of this size from the outside, because its own production capacity is completely Unable to meet end market demand." " In the environment where the monocrystalline silicon wafer is in short supply, the premium brought by the elimination of the lead angle to the industrial chain will be mostly eaten by the monocrystalline silicon wafer. That is to say, although the elimination of the lead angle may increase the cost of each wafer by 0.17 yuan, the price can be sold at 0.35 yuan, and the profit margin is better."
  5. Yes I would consider the account with the 18.5% return as a high risk as of now. It is 20% of my investments in the markets and thus I consider it a relative low risk to the overall value. It is heavily weighted to foreign China, healthcare, and growth stocks. The portfolio has benefited by a large gain in my core investment in a China ETF that has gained 27% this year. I entered into that fund Dec 12 in my rebalance after reading that China was going to be looking to increase the RMB stength and the US was touting positive trade talks. That fund while a large portion of the one portfolio is only around 5% of my total market investments. If you looks at all foreign market investments I am about 8-9% in total. I consider that moderate risk exposure to the foreign markets. My other core holdings are Intel and MSFT have pushed 20% for the year. I consider those not volatile but MSFT has an index of 25.6% The account with 16.6% returns is a moderate risk portfolio. It is 50% of my investments in the markets. It has benefited from an increase in value in Marijuana stocks this year(got dusted last year) and from my core INTC/MSFT holdings. It has benefited from some short term trades in solar this year including a recent investment in TAN after the earnings pullback. Breakdown of investments 18.5% returns YTD Cash 16% currently Individual Stocks are INTC 5%, MSFT 5% Funds/ETFs – SNP 10.3%, midcapGrwth 10.8%, CN 30%, Software 9.75%, Healthcare 12.3% .Breakdown of investments 16.6% returns YTD cash at 18.8% currently Large Cap is 48.3%, mid/small cap is 14.6%, international 3.6% Individual Stocks are MSFT 14%, INTC 6%, Marijuana stocks @ 5% Funds/ETFs - 2xDOW(DDM)11%, Heathcare 5%, SnP 7%, Software 5%, Nasd 11%, Solar 3%, Retirement – SnP index fund thus the market match.
  6. Nice, blows the doors off my returns of 18.5%, 16.6% and a retirement accounts return of 12.7%. I am only 80% invested so actual returns are more.
  7. laughable article, pumping Sunpower as turninga profit in the near future, then stating that is 2021 that that is expected. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/sunpower-corporation-nasdaq-spwr-expected-182443344.html
  8. IHS forcasting 2019 Global solar installs reaching 129GW or a 25% growth. They also suggest that this is with China uncertainty at 45GW. Think of that, if CHina does more demand could be more. This makes JKS guidance actually quite acceptable and Canadian Solars guidance quite weak. https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2019/04/04/global-solar-pv-will-reclaim-double-digit-growth-in-2019-says-ihs-markit/ The global solar PV market is set to bounce back from single-digit growth in 2018 to 25% in 2019, reaching 129 GW of solar installations, according to global business information provider IHS Markit.
  9. You know why, the same reason GCL is dabbling in it. To save the investments made in casting technology while they transition to mono. The real item is in the end it will be the cost per watt. There will be little differentiation between Mono or Multi or Casted mono presuming price per watt is all similar. That means that while we are at a disparity for Mono vs Multi in ASP, project costs are not much different and eat some of that cost savings from buying Multi. Eventually with the technologies within 1% or so in power outputs, the advantage of 1 over the other as far as LCOE becomes negligeable.
  10. Hmmm, Q4 DQ had 61% production being mono. In Q1 they are forecasting 78% of their production will be mono. To me that sounds like the Multi ASP drop will not impact them significantly for now. As you can see from their transcript below they indicate that Mono would not drop much due to the production costs of most online. In fact they were suggesting due to ratios of mono vs multi poly and much better pricing on Mono and more production Q1 should be improved margins. As for the price tightening, when everyone refines and moves from junk poly to mono quality, then the Si price for Poly wafer production will rebound as the glut will be less. That price rebound for poly would create a narrowing in the price gap. That suggests that that while Mono may decline some, it will not necessarily decline much since the Mono wafers is ramping much faster this year in wafer productions vs last year. Now to add to that DQ, is suggesting they will reduce cash costs to $6.0/KG. That is close to 20% from the Q4 producton costs, This means that they can easily maintain profitability with handle the price dropping 20% from Q4 levels to $~8/KG . When you recognize they will have 2x the capacity and $6/Kg cost, the spread and margins can be narrower and they can make more money than now come 2020. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4248446-daqo-new-energy-corp-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single "For example, I can say an example, in Q4, our monosilicon supply is around 61%. So, if you look our gross margin, our monosilicon price ASP is around like $10 and the multi is around $6.30 or whatever. Our ASP is around like renminbi is around like – US dollar maybe around like $9.50. So, we see in Q1, we will get more improved our gross margin, the reason because first of all, the monosilicon percentage will increase to around 77%, 78%,"
  11. @Klothilde Do you know what the capex per watt is going to wind up being for S6 modules when they have it ramped? What is the life cycle they are expecting for the equiptment? 3 years? 5 years? 8 years? JKS indicated for mono wafer to module Capex is around $0.12 for Perc and $0.10 for non Perc. Based on a 5 year life span that is about $0.02/watt capex. They will likely use 8 years and come in at $0.015.
  12. Who is drinking the PR Koolaid being presented by the solars? The preaching of demand increase in the second half is nothing new. For the past decade most shipments have been back end loaded. The standard estimations had been 60/40 with 60% of the shipments back end loaded. So what does the current guidance really suggest? From the looks of it, it suggests standard shipments based on a standard 60/40 breakdown. That is not a strong demand increase rather an expected supply demand scenario. Las year Jinko shipped 58% of their modules in the second half. This years 14.5GW suggests 5.8GW shipped in the first half. Q1 is traditionally their weakest quarter and Q2 is typically a strong quarter. They are guiding 2.9GW or 50% of the first half shipments in Q1. This suggests based on total shipments that the second half will be a normal second half as far as shipments go. Canadian Solar shipped 54% of their modules in the second half last year. This years guidance of 7.7GW suggests a need to ship 3GW in the first half. Their Q1 guidance is 1.35GW or 45% of their first half shipments. Q2 is typically stronger and they only need to ship 1.7GW to meet the typical first half 40% of shipments. That 1.7GW is what they shipped last year in Q2. This suggests that the second half will be a normal second half and not gut kicked by a sudden CN policy change.
  13. What no comments on Jinko's ER. They fell 100MW below their low end guidance. You remove a $6M tax reversals and the $10MCVD reversals and they are at zero profits. Their belnded ASP looks to be around just over $0.30 with costs around $0.265. Mono is set to pull down further. Their 2019 guidance is 14-15GW. That is an increase of 22-32% over the past year. That is similar to last years increases that they fell short of. This is a company that is operationally profitless after standard expenses and interest. Yet they are pushing volumes over profits. They are basically using accounting gimicks to show profits. Atleast CSIQ actually made a profit from their own operations last year and not from check book accounting gimicks.
  14. I believe CSIQ addressed some of the issues in a round about way. If they are locked in contract prices in USD purchase price and the Rmb rises, then their costs increase and their margins will decrease. This I believe is what lead them to mention a big Forex loss coming as the Rmb appreciated in value unexpectedly. If they were hedging contracts based on an expected Rmb drop due to climate in China and it goes up, that is a double whammy. FSLR will not have that issue. In fact the condition of an increasing RMB is good for FSLR as it forces the CN manufactures to sell at a higher ASP for new sales.
  15. They should make a profit for the year. They will have a sizable loss in Q1 with guidance suggesting $80M+/- gross profit. Then you add that they have warned of a big forex loss in the con call due to the sudden appreciation of the yen. That makes purchase contracts they have signed less profitable.
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