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SCSolar

Solar Investor
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SCSolar last won the day on March 16

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  1. Not certain the accuracy but this article appears to suggest Canadian solar is adding 3GW of Mono Ingot pulling in Baotaou City. If thenumbers are accurate, they are paying around $0.19-$0.19/watt pulling capacity. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200403/1060605.shtml
  2. Saudi Arabia and Russia are looking at taking out the expensive U.S. Oil shale industry that has production costs in the upper $30's to $48 dollar a barrel range. When you compare that to what had been the most expensive oil of deep water drilling of $25/barrel, the Oil Shale industry will be put out of business. The first company filed for bankruptcy protection already.
  3. Along the lines of what Klothilde has been suggesting, IHS cuts 2020 solar installations to 105GW. That is down 16GW from 2019 installs and down about 35GW from previous 140GW mid range forecast for 2020 https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2020/03/31/ihs-markit-releases-new-2020-solar-installation-forecast-in-light-of-the-impact-of-covid-19/#gref
  4. SCSolar

    Beyond Solar

    This is slightly off the trading topic Explo and I have talked about. But this is a market issue regarding COVID low demand for Oil and the Price war going on between Russia and Suadi Arabia. The Oil Shale industry in the U.S. is about to collapse. That energy independence the Trump administration has touted was built on the most costly to produce and some of the dirtiest oil from Oil Shale. The cost to get Oil from these fields is in the upper $30's to upper $40's per barrel. These companies have taken trillions in debt to buy equipment and build fields that produce the Oil. These fields are profitless with Oil under $50-$60. The Oil is worthless with the price under $30/barrel. This Bloomberg article lays out some of the issues, which includes Job losses and bankruptcies and why the industry needs to be bailed out. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-t-afford-let-shale-180000917.html
  5. Pain is coming and that is why the FED has been buying up toxic assets and trying to back fill banks with liquidity. I did not realize that safe havens of say some REITS, electric companies etc were going to have cash flow shortages. I do not think the recovery starts as fast as you might think. You have companies all across the U.S. that has laid off workers(tens of millions). Those companies have no cash flow to pay rents or bank loans that are coming due. You have banks that gave companies lines of credits with the expectations that they would never be drawn down but were there as a business building block. Those credit lines are being asked to be filled now and the banks do not have the cash. You have people that are unable to pay the rents held by Realty Trusts. The money the Fed has offered is a paltry sum that covers the cost of food and little else. That sum of money is going to skip many people who do not quality. All those people will decide, Mortgage or Food? Electricity or Food? Gas or Food? Food or Garbage pickup, Food or Cable TV or cell phone etc. You have a large swath of companies across the spectrum that are going to suddenly not have payments coming in. The monies authorized by Congress is only about 1 months GDP. This is (and always has been) looking to be a 3-6 month problem if not longer as many companies up and close forever. The cure is to shutdown everything for a long time, that is starting to be realized by those that would risk 100,000s of thousands of deaths to keep the economy going. Not to sound pessimistic but I wondered why the stable Electric, Trash , phone and cable companies were dropping when gas prices and interest were at record lows. Now it makes more sense to me as they are going to have defaults on payments to them.
  6. Yes, I am actively managing it. As a retired person it is my full time job. My long position was in TQQQ and UDOW. My short positions I take for protection to prevent downside exposure is in SQQQ and DXD. I sold 2/3 long holdings in dividend stocks and whent about 80% cash as of late this morning when the market was up. I put a short the market in place to cover my 20% holdings to protect my gains when the DOW breached 100 down.
  7. Slightly Back in Black overall. We shall see how long it lasts, backed out my long the market position yesterday afternoon.holding my 2 core dividend stocks and back to 65% cash
  8. GCL to add 60GW of module capacity coming in 4 phases. Phase 1 15GW startinf in 2020. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200330/1058776.shtml According to the project implementation plan: the module project will be invested and constructed in four phases from 2020, the first phase is 15GW, and the estimated investment is RMB 5 billion. The second, third, and fourth phases are respectively put into operation according to market sales and capacity utilization after the first phase is put into production. The situation will be implemented in phases. The total investment of the project is estimated to be 18 billion yuan, of which the total investment in fixed assets is about 12 billion yuan.
  9. The U.S segment was strong in Q4 for CSIQ and aided to higher selling prices. The average ASP of $0.28. They had a near 68/32 split of multi to mono and 20%+ blended margins for modules in Q4. To me that breaks out an average ASP of around $0.25-$0.26 outside of the U.S. shipments and a blended cost in the $0.20 range. I would gather they were selling the mono at around $0,27 outside of the U.S. and the Multi around $0.24-$0.25.
  10. Not trying to pick a bottom, but removed my shorts and went long at about 60% this morning. Bought into INTC MSFT and WM again. MSFT has a potential of 25% upside, INTC a 20% upside and WM a 40% upside. None of those pushed them towards their recent past highs.. I also took a long position in UDOW and TQQ for a short term bounce based on the initial FED actions and congress along with the Global efforts to create liquidity.
  11. Could be right based on stimulus package coming and the suggestion that Trump is tilting to reassessing the stay at home and social distancing suggestions in order to open businesses up. Though he did not shut down schools and businesses.
  12. SCSolar

    Beyond Solar

    Q2 estimates from -8% to -15% and I have seen up to -24%(JPM) for JPM as a potential. https://thehill.com/policy/finance/488648-goldman-sachs-says-gdp-could-fall-24-percent-in-second-quarter Goldmand Sachs has estimate 2.5 million people filed for unemployment. Even DeFurer has laid of his staff without pay. https://thehill.com/policy/finance/488648-goldman-sachs-says-gdp-could-fall-24-percent-in-second-quarter Trump and his fear mongering to get more money says unemployment could reach 1933 levels of 20% https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/coronavirus-trump-administration-warns-20-percent-unemployment-rate-n1162601 It is a matter of weeks before some people can file for unemployment as they must use their sick leave and vacation leave first in before claiming unemployment. I read Trump has told the Bureau of Labor Statistics (Son of former Supreme Court Judge Scalia) not to give hard numbers on unemployment rather to give a direction if asked. He is telling states not to even report the numbers. To state a number Trump fears will create more panick and make him look bad. https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/03/20/millions-out-work-unparalleled-moment-trump-tells-states-hold-back-unemployment
  13. SCSolar

    Beyond Solar

    I hear what you are saying. I just harken back to the days of Solar, when LDK when bankrupt or many of the solars dropped all the way to $1-$2. There were people suggesting all along that the business is sound it will rebound. LDK never did and people held from $20 to $10 to $6 all the way to bankruptcy missing the signals. Others like yourself looked at JKS and piled in at $2. I am not saying the U.S. economy is like LDK. If there is another leg down then the question is how deep. My guess is if nothing happens near term it is 12-15,000. If something happens then you could see a bounce up. The problem is that things are shut down and will stay until either people get tired of the economy shut down and will tolerate deaths and sichkness or there is a prevention minimizing the virus. Right now Wall Street is betting on a HUGE bailout. They are now talking 2 trillion and more. From what I am hearing they are looking at bypassing a large number of the most impacted being part time workers and those just hired a they are looking at salary base to see if you get money. Then the rest $1.5Trillion plus are going to be funnel through the banks who are going to underwrite loans and make money of that. They are looking at backstopping companies and not backstopping the people. You have entire industries wanting to get money on the cheap from the FED. Industries like Coal that has been dying is now asking for more loans. Those guys are going broke anyways as technology sweeps them into being an industry of past history. You have oil and gas wanting hundreds of Billions even though their issue is not as much the virus as capitalism and competition. You have a massive amount of debt at risk now and looking to bailout the industries to prevent yet another financial collapse due to gross mismanagement. By that I mean reliance on debt. Debt is the same thing I have pointed out about an over leveraged market. The markets leverage quadrupled since 2008 to almost 1 Trillion leveraged. That in itself was a driver of the markets as well as the tax breaks and buy backs that altered standardized PE's. The question is does Wall Street and business go back to that old model thus getting a big bounce, or does a reset of PE and growth drive it back to the old models. There was the potential for a 20% hit just from a PE reset. There was a further downside of 10-20% due to leveraging, there is another 10% hit growth falls back to 1% range after the recession.. That is a 40-50% hit without earnings dropping negative and unemployment not recovering. We are at a 30-32% hit. Just my thoughts.
  14. Another week of losses. The markets had their worst performance to date on the downside this past week. Dropping 11-13%. I have been hedging with ETF shorts in DXD and SQQQ with occassionally trying to flip the hedge to a bull in TQQQ and UDOW periodically. At this point that seems like a stupid strategy and has probably cost me all my losses year to date. I have dropped from +8.6% to -6.5% for a total swing of 15.2% down over the past 5 weeks from the peaks of the market. Seems alot longer than 5 weeks. I am losing basically 2-3% a week. The overall markets are down 28-32% for the year and 31-34% from their peaks. So atleast my hedging ill timed as it may be at times has kept me at down 4 to 5 times better than the market. God I hate loosing money.
  15. Set the bids lower. We are nowhere near the bottom.
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