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SCSolar

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SCSolar last won the day on July 24

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  1. SCSolar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    The con call did not sound bad. The Guidance was lowered for the full year but Q3 looks strong. Margins are being suggested as strong. Q4 Guidance looks to be similar to Q1 18 volumes. The revenue outlook for Q4 looks to be about $1.2-$1.3Billion.
  2. SCSolar

    Hanwha Q CELLS (HQCL)

    HQCL reported today and the transcript is out. They are suggesting the decline in input costs is going to more than offset the decline in module price that will help in the gross margins. That is similar to what JKS has indicated for the second half. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4198574-hanwha-q-cells-co-ltd-hqcl-ceo-seong-woo-nam-q2-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single and for Q3 and Q4 following the subsidy cuts in China, we expect ASPs to go down. But we believe that that's going to be accompanied by a corresponding decline and input prices such as wafer and other raw materials for cells and modules. So the margin outlook actually is expected to improve for the second half of 2018, especially given that we have a lot of shipments to take place in value added markets such as European state.
  3. SCSolar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    My view is 2 main issues that are glaring. 1: Q4 Guidance has to be HUGE and far exceeding their best quarters shipment ever and up to 30% increase over Q3 guidance 2: Serious concerns on margins with the ASP falling and their current cost structure and decision not to give any information on future cost structures.
  4. SCSolar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    There goes my 20% pre ER earnings gains. Gone in 60 seconds. The con call became defensive. Suggestions that they are no longer giving cost guidance. Suggestions that Q4 guidance is unusually high and may not be met. Serious questions on how they could be so wrong on margins and how they can be trusted for the second half. Defending long term pricing but then acknowledging they are market price competitive. Dodging going private potentials as not currently planning.
  5. SCSolar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    ER out with more details https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jinkosolar-holding-co-ltd-sponsored-100000028.html Notes: Guidance is 2.8-3GW for Q3. If they meet high end Q3 shipments, that means Q4 will have to ship 3700MW to meet low end guidance.
  6. SCSolar

    JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Q2 presentation is out. 2794MW shipped 12% margins $915M in revenue $0.40 in EPS No change in shipment guidance. Blended cost $0.323 (includes shipping and warranty) http://ir.jinkosolar.com/static-files/49fa91d8-2213-4530-b826-46d25d1cd398
  7. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    Thanks for the data. After further reading on Tongwei the 50KMT is coming online 1/2 in September and half by the end of the year. That $5.9 is most likely when they have all 120KMT on line. In order for DQ to reach $7.50/KG they must be producing around $5 to $5.50 in the new facility.
  8. SCSolar

    Solar News

    Something fishy about that report. They say they expect China to do 28.5GW for 2018, yet they acknowledge $24.3GW was installed in the first half and that DG and top runner is ongoing. That forcast is in odds with some of the comments in the article of " However, PV Tech recently reported official China PV installations figures for the first half of 2018, that new solar PV installations in the country reached 24.3GW in the first half of 2018. China installation programs regarding ‘Top Runner’ and ‘Poverty Alleviation’, which are primarily carried-out in the second half of the year have not been curtailed, which led Rongfang Yin, vice president of Trina Solar Group, the second largest ‘Silicon Module Super League’ (SMSL) member, in an exclusive interview with PV Tech to highlight demand was still higher than many expected. “There has been a lot of discussion within the industry on this and many expect PV installations to total around 30GW this year. In my opinion given the different markets including residential in my view we are looking at a 35GW to 37GW market," commented Yin."
  9. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    Lets be accurate. GCL is adding 40KMT in 2018 and relocating/upgrading 20KMT of current capacity. The existing capacity was 65-70KMT. That places their total capacity in the range of 115KMT. http://taiyangnews.info/business/gcl-goes-big-time-mono-2/ Current loaded capacity runs at over $10/KG. With $6 production costs for new capacity, at best this places their production costs at around $8/Kg blended. I believe they may have indicated around $9/KG when completed. I could be wrong. Tongwei is adding 50KMT to their existing 70KMT facility. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/06/26/ambitious-pv-expansion-plans-for-chinas-tongwei-longi-and-sunport-still-on-track/ Presuming similar costs to GCL their production costs look to be at best $9/KG blended. This total capacity of the 2 at 235KMT is looking at around $8.50/KG blended. This capacity will supply around 50-60GW of wafers. In 2019 the CN demand will be in the range of 100GW+ of production. Since Tongwei and GCL need profits of $3 or more per KG, this would suggest an ASP of $11-$12/KG at a minimum or basically others cash costs. DQ poly capacity will be at 32-35KMT with a blended cost of $7.50. That is appx $1 below their estimated competitors. I think they will do just fine at $4-$4.50 in gross per Kg. That is a minimum of $120M gross for a company running at <$40M per year in interest and Opex today. By the way, DQ capacity will only supply around 8-9GW. Add that to the other 2 companies and there is still room for another 150KMT of low cost production (blended $9 or less) to supply 2019 Chinese demand needs. It is interesting that those blended number for companies are suggesting $9 or less production costs. That is exactly the range of cost that DQ suggested will be left. Do you see another 100KMT of low cost capacity coming on line from others that would blend down to $9 or less?
  10. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    Did you notice PVInsights has the high end poly price increasing 3.39% to $13.30. That bodes well for DQ going forward and confirms the suggestion they made in the con call of Poly rising again. http://pvinsights.com/ from August 8. PV Grade PolySilicon (9N/9N+) 13.30 10.00 11.280 Positive Change Sign0.37 Positive Change Sign 3.39%
  11. SCSolar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/08/08/business/08reuters-usa-trade-china-energy.html BEIJING — Shenzhen Energy Group Co Ltd said on Wednesday it has ditched a plan to buy three U.S. solar power stations after failing to get approval from a U.S. government panel amid growing trade tensions between the world's top two economies. The decision comes after the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), a government panel that reviews foreign investments for potential national security risks, has not ruled on its deal which was announced last October, it said.
  12. SCSolar

    Solar News

    Apparently Shenzen has withdrawn from buying the 3 power plants from CSIQ due to failure to get regulatory approval. https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2018/08/08/business/08reuters-usa-trade-china-energy.html BEIJING (Reuters) - Shenzhen Energy Group Co Ltd (000027.SZ) said on Wednesday it has ditched a plan to buy three U.S. solar power stations after failing to get approval from a U.S. government panel amid growing trade tensions between the world’s top two economies.
  13. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    OK read the con call. It is reasonably sound. They are selling today at around $12.24 for Mono. They expect the poly to rise by year end to $12.75 for mono. This places gross based on $9/kg production cost at $3.24-$3.75/Kg. For Q3 - Use an average of $3- $3.50 gross. 6000MT is $18M to $21M gross. Less $9M for Opex and interest you have $9-$12. Afer tax you have $0.61 to $0.82 in EPS before 1 timers such as shuttering the wafer or writing off the equipment which is hinted at. For Q4, they could be looking at 6500MT production. with a $3.50-$4.00 gross. That would push $0.85 to $0.95 for EPS before adjustments and 1 timers. What I find interesting in the conference call 1: The suggestion of 50GW or potentially more potential from China in 2019. 2: The suggestion that rooftop solar in some parts is being installed at $0.525/Watt which will go down with lower ASP. 3: 2/3rds of current Poly plants will be shut down due to high production costs. The remaining capacities will be $9/KG or lower and as we know from comments that much of that new capacity is going to be at around $6 or less/Kg loaded costs.
  14. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    Time to listen to the con call. Q2 ASP for DQ was near the high range of May 30 PVInsigths posted on this board. PVInsights is now around $12.90 high end range.
  15. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    That would only be funny if you believed that China would not reach profitability with $0.04 as the average cost/KWhr without subsidies. I see a >8% return on cash invested with a 20% down for the project development cost. This is based on a $0.60 build cost per KWhr with 80% financed at 5%. I believe they could hit $0.50 install costs. They could be installing 100GW with those returns. All it takes is an ASP heading into 2020 at the $0.20-$0.25 range which are targets to be met with ultra low Poly usage from new Tech and higher efficiencies. Think 22-25% efficiency from modules from new tech that is ramped. Then look at wafer processing at $0.04/W Cell at $0.05, module at $0.07 and poly running $0.03 and you have a cost at $0.19. That supports 20% margins at $0.23-$0.25 for module makers. I know I know you do not believe those numbers but wait and see.
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