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SCSolar

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SCSolar last won the day on October 17

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  1. SCSolar

    Solar News

    2 years away but after 2020 China is looking at 80-160GW of PV a year. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20181018/934968.shtml The report also pointed out that after 2020, photovoltaics and wind power will grow rapidly. In the next 10 years, China will usher in a large-scale construction of photovoltaic and wind power. The installed capacity of photovoltaics is about 80~160GW/year
  2. SCSolar

    Solar News

    That going private offer for CSIQ is sure starting to look a lot like the Jaso offer.
  3. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    Yes, take Jinko and others Q2 costs and compare them to the average ASP of upstream costs at the time. I mean cells were going for $0.21-$0.28 for Multi and Mono Perc. Poly was going for $19-$21/KG. Now those costs are $0.09-$0.0145 and Poly at $10.15. That upstream supply costs having dropped 40-60% will lead to far lower production costs. And that was only for the major parts, all the minor parts of glass backplating etc has dropped significantly and most manufacturing is being moved to low energy areas to cut some of the soft costs. bwahahahahahahahaha.
  4. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    I have to make a slight correction on my comment "I believe the P-Series modules uses the IBC backplane technology. " The E and X series are IBC technology from Sunpower based on the Maxeon cells. The new manufacturing is for their P Series which is shingle based(not IBC). https://us.sunpower.com/products/solar-panels/ Here is a nice overview link of the types of Shingles and they touch on IBC. http://www.metallizationworkshop.info/fileadmin/metallizationworkshop/favicon/8.3_Beaucarne_Metallization_Workshop_2016_presentation_v2.pdf
  5. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    The exemption is for IBC technology using tin plated copper backing. This is specific to Sunpower and their USTR filing exemption. The argument used was that profits from these modules would be used to fund the U.S. solar manufacturing(i,e Solar World acquisition). I believe the P-Series modules uses the IBC backplane technology. Thus it is not just any low cost technology. I believe they have several GW of the capacity not in the U.S. Other companies like LG petitioned as well indicating they were opening a 500MW facility in Alabama and their IBC technology was similar. They were not granted an exemption. A U.S. based company was granted and exemption based on fine print technology. https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2018/09/solar-panel-tariff-exclusions-finally-announced/
  6. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    FSLR can only sell in the U.S. due to the Trumpian tariffs for the premium. That premium is quickly fallen. The ROW they are now not competitive. That is 20% of their shipments if I recall. As for the U.S. There is also 2.5GW of tariff free that can be imported and Sunpower can import unlimited tariff free modules. They will be getting those modules on the cheap with the ASP collapse. Now as for the ASP collapse, here is a nice link that covers the impact on foreign pricing that you can now adjust for current ASPs. https://news.energysage.com/2018-us-solar-tariff-impact-prices/ The first year was expected to have a 10-12 cent impact. based on module low and high prices.The second year it falls by 5% to a 25% tariff. It was expected that based on a 32 to 38 cent module ASP the impact would add 8-10 cents. Now the reality is that the module prices are now in the $0.24-$0.28. That places the impact at 7.2-8.5 cents for the rest of the year. Starting February 2019 the rate drops to 25% and the impact on the module drops to 6-7 cents. So the ASP will soon be $0.30-$0.35 for 2019 at most. In all probability with 2.5GW of tariff free modules to subisdize the profits, the ASP could be $0.28-$0.33 in 2019 especially when looking at Sunpowers unlimited imports. Jinko and others are ramping U.S. module manufacturing as well. They will be importing solar cells at cost or $0.09-$0.013(multi Mono). With the tarrif impacts the cost is $0.115- $0.165. That means at 12-13 cents for module processing their costs for Multi will be around $0.245 and mono at $0.275. From that the ASP will stay in that upper $0.20s to low $0.30s for ASPs. By the time the S6 lines are ramped come 2020, the tariff impact will only be 20% and if trends continue as China moves wafering to low energy regions of inner Mongolia and cheaper Si is abundant, then the cost for US manufactured will be in the $0.23-$0.26 range with an ASP under $0.30. Those Chinese imports will be almost as competitive. There is not a lot of meat on the bone for FSLR at those ASPs.
  7. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    Energy Trends appears to be an average ASP that is higher than PVInsights who has 9N at $10.16. PVInsights also has the high end slightly higher by $0.26/KG at $12.50. This is not significant in drops as of yet when you consider the old capacity that is back online after the sudden maintenance window and the new Capacity coming online. I find the mono wafer / cell / modules pricing more disturbing and so should you. Mono modules selling for $0.25 and Multi modules being sold for $0.21-$0.23. Perc modules being sold at $0.25-$0.28. My oh my what is FSLR to do with modules ASP below the cost that FSLR can manufacture and at around the cost of a ramped S6 production? I smell contract cancellations coming from foreign entities
  8. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    Are you expecting only nameplate production of the initial 30KMT? They had been producing 20+% over nameplate for the past year. If they get similar results with the new capacity then EPS could easily be $0.75/qrtr at $10/KG ASP. Debottlenecking brings capacity to 35KMT by the end of June. That would push earnings close to $1/qrtr at a $10ASP. Just in time for the next phase 4A to start ramping in Q4 2019.
  9. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    35KMT*7.5=$262.5M 70KMT*6.8=$476M 35KMT=$476-262.5=$213.5M $213.5M/35KMT = $6.1/Kg production costs for new capacities. I was hoping for lower costs for new capacities.
  10. SCSolar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Interesting that he is suggesting installs at 104GW in 2018. That is not the 85-95 that most have suggested as revisions. He is counting China as an emerging market in those values.. "Two years later, much to our surprise, the developing country market is expected to reach 70GW and 67% of the total market share in 2018. The mature developed country market is more or less the same 34GW as two years ago, but now only represents 33% of the total market share.
  11. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    If you are following the trends, Mono modules is taking a larger and growing market share. It is being forecast that Mono Modules will be 75GW in 2019. That is 65-75% of the market demand. Due to this the amount of high quality silicon demand is on the rise while the lower end Si is not in as much demand. This can be found int he spreads of Si pricing. The High quality Si has held steady at the mid $12's ASP while the average and the low end continue to drop. While there is large quantities of capacity coming online, this is going to take time to ramp to full capacity and to get the quality up to the high end range. This might suggest that the higher end range may continue to hold up then break into a down trend in Q2ish to Q3 2019.
  12. SCSolar

    Solar News

    75GW of that capacity is now PERC. Canadian Solar is second currently behind Tiongwei in Perc Capacity and is soon to 3rd or lower. The last paragraph is interesting in that they are suggesting Mono is going to take 70% of the market in 2019. That is another blow to CSIQ that is betting on Multi. http://m.solarzoom.com/article-115352-1.html
  13. SCSolar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I estimate around 140-150MW of the initial eary FIT out of the initial 600MW. is left. Half of this is in construction as of Q2.
  14. SCSolar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I do not think the total exposure is as bad as you might suggest. They initially had 600MW back in 2015. The lost around 150MW shortly there after. They have built about 300MW to date of that remaining 450MW. They have 144MW that are target to be 2019/2020 . Of the 11MW due to be completed by the end of 2019, 67MW of that is under construction as of Q218 ER. I presume all these are from the earlt FIT. They also have signed more contracts that are pushed out. In themiddle of 2016 they started showing build schedules that pushed into 2021 and beyond. I am under the presumption the 140MW that is target 2021 is lower FITS as most of this was added in the Q417 earnings presentations. csiq japan Q218 update.xlsx
  15. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    I find the Poly market segment and DQ going through what looks like a 2 to 3 year re-adjustment. This is something this specific segment has not done as it has been relatively young compared to the wafer / cell / module segments. There is cloudiness in the Poly segment of the industry as it looks to re-allocate manufacturing capacity and costs. DQ itself has recently announced writedowns and an exiting of wafer manufacturing. They are taking $20M on 500MW. I am not certain that covers the whole costs. As for the segment, there is a ton of new cpacity coming online that is all under $6/Kg based on analysis. This capacity is coming online now and forever on. The poly segment has indicated that the $12/KG capacity is going to be shut down near term due to not being competitive. The next question is when there is a bunch of sub $6/Kg poly production what will the ASP be like? I might speculate it would be $7-8 +/-. That would then put the capacity that has costs in in the $7-$9/KG at risk of write downs or shutdowns over the next few years. DQ will have over 30+KMT of that capacities production targets online by the end of the year. This would lead me to believe that this current capacity may be written down at some point in the next 3 years. This ASP adjustments and the potential of additional adjustments in the next few years creates a cloud in the Poly industry. That cloudiness has happened in every other segment of the Solar industry several times. To quote Mark Cuban, for that reason I am out.
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