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SCSolar

Solar Investor
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SCSolar last won the day on February 21

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  1. SCSolar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    To follow that up, they are looking at 399MW of US projects being sold sometime in Q2-Q4. It is not in the guidance to happen in Q2 but whenever it does, you can expect the margins to be hurt significantly again. The ASP of the US projects sold to KEPCO appears to be $2.33. That puts margins in the range of 3-5% for the US projects when you factor out module shipments at say 17% margins. Presuming similar margins for the remaining 399MW, that gives a revenue range of $920-$930M and gross profits of $45-$47M. You can figure the margin impact with their baseline 1500-1600MW of shipments per Q.
  2. SCSolar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Module margins in the high teens and higher margin project sales(aka non U.S. projects) Q1 module margins are in high teens but US project sales dragged down the total margins. Those comments are consistent with HQCL reporting high teen margins the other day. This should bode well for JKS in Q2 if they get their modules ramped and keep reducing OEM as a %.
  3. SCSolar

    Trading Strategy

    Is BCPC still one of your 10 holdings? The stock has had a great run since the bottom in February. It has gained more than 33%. It looks like it is trading at more than 30 as a 2019 forward PE now. That seems a bit pricey if not for the long term trend lines.
  4. SCSolar

    Yingli Green Energy (YGE)

    Negative 1.76Billion shareholder equity. If this is not a Zombie company propped up by the CN government, I do not know what is.
  5. SCSolar

    ReneSola (SOL)

    SOL is not worth the time to discuss since the CEO swindled the investors into paying him to take the manufacturing assets from the company. They are now a small time project developer.
  6. SCSolar

    Solar News

    How do they get lower than Zero C02? " Continue fleet modernization – By 2030, the company expects more than 80 percent of its generation mix to come from zero and lower CO2-emitting sources."
  7. SCSolar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Yes, I am holding until the buyout goes through. I am expecting $0.50 before 1 time adjustments and Forex based on their revisions. As far as the revisions go, that suggest that there is some $25-$30M in equity from the US project sales that slipped out. This is based on their margins guidance changes and earnings decline changes from the initial Q4 guidance. The changes to the prior guidance suggests 3-5% margins for the U.S. projects. These projects should be additive to any weakness they may have in Q1 to continue their profitability. The poly drop and ASP declines for mono and multi should benefit CSIQ heading into Q2. That times well with their internal wafer capacity roll out for their half cell modules. That is all moot as the buyout offer caps the share price and any potential strength. What is interesting about the sector is I believe that the costs structures are aligning with the mass of scale volumes to make 2019 the year the earnings powers is set for decent growth. With a slim $0.04 gross and a 12GW shipment volumes, I might expect earnings to be pushing $1.50 plus a share for a JKS. It is quite possible the earnings accelerate beyond that significantly if the cost to asp spread increases above a penny per watt.
  8. SCSolar

    JA Solar (JASO)

    "if at the time when the shareholders' approval is obtained, the holders of more than 10% of ordinary shares have validly served notices of objection, and within 10 business days the Parent Parties have not granted an irrevocable waiver of this condition, either the Company or the Parent Parties may terminate the Merger Agreement." It reads that the company or the parent parties have the right to cancel the buyout. I doubt that happens as you know who runs the company.
  9. SCSolar

    Beyond Solar

    It is none of the above. The Storage Reits I follow PSA EXR and CUBE appear to be tracking the rise of the Dow since Feb 8th. In Fact 2 of the 3 are slightly below the DOW gains. Here are the raw number gains and the chart DOW 24190 25335 1145 4.73% EXR 82.51 87.05 4.54 5.50% PSA 186.78 195 8.22 4.40% CUBE 26.05 27.14 1.09 4.18% https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EXR/chart?p=EXR#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwiY2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiOjE5LjE2NjY2NjY2NjY2NjY2OCwidm9sdW1lVW5kZXJsYXkiOnRydWUsImFkaiI6dHJ1ZSwiY3Jvc3NoYWlyIjp0cnVlLCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwiZXh0ZW5kZWQiOmZhbHNlLCJtYXJrZXRTZXNzaW9ucyI6e30sImFnZ3JlZ2F0aW9uVHlwZSI6Im9obGMiLCJjaGFydFNjYWxlIjoibGluZWFyIiwicGFuZWxzIjp7ImNoYXJ0Ijp7InBlcmNlbnQiOjEsImRpc3BsYXkiOiJFWFIiLCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInRvcCI6MH19LCJzZXRTcGFuIjp7Im11bHRpcGxpZXIiOjMsImJhc2UiOiJtb250aCIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp7InBlcmlvZCI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJkYXkifSwiZm9yY2VMb2FkIjp0cnVlfSwibGluZVdpZHRoIjoyLCJzdHJpcGVkQmFja2dyb3VkIjp0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOnRydWUsImNvbG9yIjoiIzAwODFmMiIsImN1c3RvbVJhbmdlIjpudWxsLCJzeW1ib2xzIjpbeyJzeW1ib2wiOiJFWFIiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiRVhSIn0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSIsInRpbWVVbml0IjpudWxsLCJzZXRTcGFuIjp7Im11bHRpcGxpZXIiOjMsImJhc2UiOiJtb250aCIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp7InBlcmlvZCI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJkYXkifSwiZm9yY2VMb2FkIjp0cnVlfX0seyJzeW1ib2wiOiJQU0EiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiUFNBIn0sInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSIsInRpbWVVbml0IjpudWxsLCJzZXRTcGFuIjp7Im11bHRpcGxpZXIiOjMsImJhc2UiOiJtb250aCIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp7InBlcmlvZCI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJkYXkifSwiZm9yY2VMb2FkIjp0cnVlfSwicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJpc0NvbXBhcmlzb24iOnRydWUsImNvbG9yIjoiIzcyZDNmZiIsIndpZHRoIjoyLCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJQU0EifSwiY2hhcnRUeXBlIjoibGluZSIsInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJhY3Rpb24iOm51bGwsInNoYXJlWUF4aXMiOnRydWUsInN5bWJvbCI6IlBTQSJ9fSx7InN5bWJvbCI6IkNVQkUiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiQ1VCRSJ9LCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJkYXkiLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6eyJtdWx0aXBsaWVyIjozLCJiYXNlIjoibW9udGgiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZXJpb2QiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoiZGF5In0sImZvcmNlTG9hZCI6dHJ1ZX0sInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiaXNDb21wYXJpc29uIjp0cnVlLCJjb2xvciI6IiNhZDZlZmYiLCJ3aWR0aCI6MiwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiQ1VCRSJ9LCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsImFjdGlvbiI6bnVsbCwic2hhcmVZQXhpcyI6dHJ1ZSwic3ltYm9sIjoiQ1VCRSJ9fSx7InN5bWJvbCI6Il5ESkkiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiXkRKSSJ9LCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJkYXkiLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6eyJtdWx0aXBsaWVyIjozLCJiYXNlIjoibW9udGgiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6eyJwZXJpb2QiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoiZGF5In0sImZvcmNlTG9hZCI6dHJ1ZX0sInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiaXNDb21wYXJpc29uIjp0cnVlLCJjb2xvciI6IiNmZjgwYzUiLCJ3aWR0aCI6MiwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJzeW1ib2xPYmplY3QiOnsic3ltYm9sIjoiXkRKSSJ9LCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJsaW5lIiwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsImFjdGlvbiI6bnVsbCwic2hhcmVZQXhpcyI6dHJ1ZSwic3ltYm9sIjoiXkRKSSJ9fV0sInN0dWRpZXMiOnsidm9sIHVuZHIiOnsidHlwZSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwiaW5wdXRzIjp7ImlkIjoidm9sIHVuZHIiLCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoidm9sIHVuZHIifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJVcCBWb2x1bWUiOiIjMDBiMDYxIiwiRG93biBWb2x1bWUiOiIjRkYzMzNBIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJzIjp7ImhlaWdodFBlcmNlbnRhZ2UiOjAuMjUsIndpZHRoRmFjdG9yIjowLjQ1LCJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fX19
  10. SCSolar

    Beyond Solar

    My 2 Lithium stocks are down 12% after averaging down. I missed another buy on MLNLF on Friday at 2.25, I decided not to not pull the trigger for a buy on Monday. They are small speculative portions of my portfolio and I will not be adding any more. On a side note my heavy CSIQ buy at $14.80 to hold for the buyout is doing quite well.
  11. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    When the 30KMT is online and they hit their target cost of $7.50/KG they make $8.19 EPS at a very lenient 31.8% margins. A more optimistic ASP they earn $11.20 per share on 37.5% GM. A PE of 6-8 would place low end at $49 to $65. A PE of 6-8 on the more optimistic would place share price of $77-89.
  12. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    I do not believe you can give future ASP with current cost structures. It was just 2-3 quarters ago, that DQ cost were $8.41-$8.53. That means they can potentially achieve lower costs than the $9.40 reported in Q4. In fact 4 times in the past 6 quarters they had costs significantly lower than Q4 . costs.ttp://daqo.gotoip1.com/Public/Uploads/11195537475a96862edfd47.pdf
  13. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    Where was the holding for $100+?
  14. SCSolar

    Daqo (DQ)

    The solar market is forward looking. You can not take todays results and project them forward 3 quarters. Q1 earnings should be close to Q4 for earnings based on the current ASP. Forward looking, the glut and price collapse that Klothilde has mentioned was coming was addressed in the con call. The margins take a big hit from today in that scenario. When that happens later this year or by early next year, earnings fall significantly faster. If the glut happens before the added capacity is online and ramped, then DQ is going to take a hit on earnings towards the end of this year and into a good portion of 2019 before they can recover some earnings with the newly ramped capacity. You might want to read the QnA transcript on Seeking Alpha.
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