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SCSolar

Solar Investor
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SCSolar last won the day on February 13

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  1. SCSolar

    Solar News

    That makes sense as grid parity is not in place in China. That also suggests why price declines are in store. PV insights is suggesting module prices have fallen. There are 2 good articles on Guangfu today. The first covers current market analysis and utilization rates. They suggest that utilization rates are still far below the pre 531 announcement although they did up tick recently in China. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190213/962366.shtml The overall utilization rate of production capacity in the Chinese market continued to rise, reaching 83% - but still not returning to the level before the "531 New Deal" This second article is a good article on the details of costs that China needs to hit for grid parity. It will give you an idea that the prices will drop significantly over the next 2 years. They are suggesting an average cost to build of 3.25RMB or $0.49(USD) for Grid parity. Depending on regions some are lower costs and some are higher in cost. They are suggesting the current cost to build is ~4.2RMB. They are suggesting a 28% system cost price decline is in order to meet grid parity. These suggest that the solar costs are going to have to further drop. Current costs of $0.63(USD) will fall to $0.49(USD). The current module cost I estimate at $0.26. That is 41% of the total cost. A 28% price drop on the module cost is $0.0728. This places China needing a target module cost of $0.18-$0.19 come 2020 and later. That is where China hits grid parity and solar PV demand will explode. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190213/962352-2.shtml Definition of Parity online “The cost of PV system for I, II, and III resource areas requires 3.21, 3.37, and 3.28 yuan/W, respectively; the median of all regions, the threshold for national PV affordable Internet projects is 3.25 yuan/W.” Analysis of the cost reduction of PV parity online Based on the above parameters, the conclusions that can be calculated are: 1 The cost of the power station system is 4.2 yuan / W; 2 The internal rate of return of the project is 7.14%. Core conclusion: According to this standard, the current national photovoltaic ground power station system cost still needs to drop by 28% compared with the median level of 3.25 yuan/W national parity online. That is to say, the cost of photovoltaic power plant system will drop by 28% at the current level, and the country will implement large-scale (more than 50%) low-cost Internet access on the power generation side.
  2. SCSolar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Nice, glad you were able to climb back. I took my losses earlier then bought in lower and sold in the $14's. I felt good getting that money back however I did miss out on the $7 rise since then.
  3. SCSolar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    If you looked at their 2 business units being MSS and at 23.4% GM and the Energy Business unit being 28.2% In Q3. In fact Q3 was lower in margins than the energy business has had 54.7% and 31.6% margins in the Q1/2 quarters. The guidance is only 1.5% higher in margins. This revised guidance adds around $50M gross from prior high end guidance. This could be picked up with Japan project sales and far lower input costs for building modules or other items like more CVD reversals or more NTP revenue recognitions. The revised revenue picks up around $100M in added revenues of which around $65M of that is modules. That means they had $25M of other revenues. To me it looks like the revised guidance adds around $65M module revenues on 225MW and around $15M in MSS gross from that. >>>>This would leaves $35M gross from projects on what is around $25M in other revenues. That would suggest another CVD reversal might be included similar to Q3.
  4. SCSolar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Yep margins high revenues high. It looks like they may have sold some Japan projects to boost margins and an added $100-$150M that is not accounted for in the 300MW of added modules. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canadian-solar-announces-date-q4-120000863.html
  5. SCSolar

    Trading Strategy

    Interesting chart with segment breakouts. You have 25% in what I view as the growth segments of Tech and Healthcare. These segments have outperformed the markets for the past several decades. They are my 2 primary segments that I look to to aid in outperforming the overall markets. You have consumer discretionary as your largest market segment holding. Consumer discretionary does well when consumer confidence is good and under performs when confidence is week. Does this mean you are bullish on the overall economies going forward? Some of the market sentiment is weakening with higher interest rates and global economic growth slowing.
  6. SCSolar

    Trading Strategy

    Yes that is very true. Last year I fell into that trap and why I have changed my investment strategy. I abandoned my stock holdings when the market crashed(saved on some downside early). I did not re-invest much, when I did it was market timed wrong and pulled back out as fears of further drops in a crash like in 2009ish period. I made some real bad trades due to timings and market sector collapses. Because of this, last years losses were close to 12.5% compared to the overall markets 4.5% drop. The loss amounted to half the gains made the prior year in 2017. Because of the mental aspect, I have done the opposite of you based on last years implosions and the convictions of the investments. I have moved from a 30+ stock ownership and mutual funds which was 70/30 to an appx 20/80% stock to Funds. The funds are invested in broader market funds and ETFs and sector targeted funds. My Kids accounts are maintained as they were last year which were profitable by 4-6%. These are the same stocks mentioned above(MSFT, INTC,PG, CMCST,VZ,WM). My retirement account was reduced to 2 funds down from 4. The money invested is split 80% to a SnP500 and 20% to Healthcare. There are no stocks. There is 20% in cash currently. The second account which was my active trading account and worst performer last year(best in 2017) is now predominately static. The monies are divided 66% to funds and ETF and 34% to stocks. 95% of the monies are in the market and 5% are in cash. The stocks monies ratios are 70% into my core INTC and MSFT and 30% into Canibus. The Mutual Fundsand ETFs are spread 5% into Checmicals. 10% into Healthcare , 10% into Technology, 20% into a Nasdaq ETF, 20% in a double Dow track, 30% into a SnP500 ETF, 5% into an Asia PAC fund. My Third account has 17% invested in stocks and 79% into Funds and 3% cash. Of the 17% invested in stock, it is invested 46% in JPM, 25% INTC and 29% MSFT. The 79% invested in Funds/ETF are 15% Mid Cap growth, 17% Healthcare, 34% Biotech and 36% China tracking Fund. Since the start of the year the Overall markets(NASD+DOW+SNP) is up 6.6% and up 11% since Dec 21 close. For monies invested, my accounts are as follows. Kids accounts are up 3%(did not track them by week last year) Retirement is up 6.75% since Jan1 and 11% for invested funds since Dec 21 Account 2 is up 8.59% and 14% respectively Account 3 is up 9.29% and 14% since Dec 21
  7. SCSolar

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Can you explain what the "Lot of things changing." is in reference to? Demand was 100GW in 2018 right in line with most estimates. 2019 is estimated to grow 20% or in line with estimates from last year. There are no changes in US tariffs or China FITs. The ASP is still at basically cash costs. The component prices have had a slight uptick in the past week or 2 in part because of the typical China New years shut downs. The ASP for modules is still stagnant and was actually down slightly for thin film and Poly modules. Rising input costs with a flat ASP that was near cash cost is in my opinion good.
  8. SCSolar

    Solar News

    Cost to build getting lower and lower. The winning bids in China solar projects at 4.32Yuan or $0.64/watt to build. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190116/956941.shtml According to the publicity document, the winner of the bidding candidate is the consortium of China Electric Power Engineering Consulting Group Northwest Electric Power Design Institute Co., Ltd. and China Nuclear Industry Ersan Construction Co., Ltd. The bid price is 2.163307928 billion yuan, and the average bid price is about 4.32 yuan. /watt.
  9. SCSolar

    Solar News

    If the rest of the world tracks Indias goals, the solar will increase 3 fold in the next decade. Estimates of a total of 350GW to be installed in India by 2028. They are looking at 30GW a year average. Imagine this would have global solar installing over 300GW a year by 2028. That is an average 12.5% annual growth rate over the next decade https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/08/india-will-tender-500-gw-renewable-capacity-by-2028/ To achieve its goal of generating 40 per cent of electricity from non-fossil fuels by 2030, India would have to install 500 GW of renewable energy generation capacity by 2028, according to Anand Kumar, Secretary of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, who was speaking at the India-Norway Business Summit 2019 which opened yesterday in New Delhi. Of those 500 GW, 350 GW would be solar, 140 GW wind, and the remaining generation capacity would come from small hydro and biomass power.
  10. SCSolar

    Solar News

    Wow, I just read an article on what could happen in a PG&E bankruptcy and re-organization to those that have PPA agreements with them. It suggests that PG&E has an average PPA of $140/MWhr and that it could be adjusted to current market rates of $32/KG. That would screw over the owners of the projects. All those Yieldcos from a few years back, may have just gotten a lot more riskier. This would also make difficult to find buyers of current projects in the works as it is now a risk if the PPA you are trying to sell today, may be reduced in court in the future. https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2019/01/how-will-pges-bankruptcy-impact-the-cleantech-industry.html What about PG&E’s power purchase agreements (“PPA”) and other contractual obligations? Contracts to provide services, such as PG&E’s contracts with Community Choice Aggregators (“CCAs”) to collect and remit money from customers for the power CCA’s supply to customers are one area to watch during the bankruptcy proceeding. The CCAs are concerned about ensuring that all money PG&E collects on their behalf from customers is regularly remitted to them. In general, however, this is mostly seen as a pass through that will likely not be affected by the proceeding. It is thought there will likely be no substantial affect, but collections could slow if staffing is reduced leaving fewer people available to process paperwork. In regard to solar and wind energy suppliers, the bankruptcy court could allow PG&E to renegotiate any contracts where developers are selling energy for prices higher than today’s renewable energy project prices. PG&E’s current weighted average solar PV PPA price is approximately $140/MW-HR. The current solar PV PPA signed today is priced at $32.5/MW-HR. Renegotiating past contracts at today’s prices would save PG&E approximately $2.2 billion per year. If this occurs, the impacts would likely include significant losses to investors in renewable energy projects, increased costs of building new renewable energy projects, credit rating downgrades of existing solar and wind projects, and project developers and investors absorbing losses of renegotiated PPAs by raising prices on new projects. However, whether legacy PPAs can be renegotiated in bankruptcy to fund creditors is uncertain. For example, it is an open question still being decided on a state-by-state and federal level as to whether a bankrupt utility can breach a money losing PPA or re-negotiate a solar PPA signed at a historically high price and replace it with a current market competitive solar PPA.
  11. SCSolar

    Solar News

    Yes congrats to those that hold CSIQ and JKS.
  12. SCSolar

    Solar News

    I am not certain how this will impact JKS CSIQ and DQ. JKS ASP has been higher than the spot prices by 15-20%. That is in part due to ramping mono Perc and shipping overseas(U.S) as well as the legacy contracts signed for last years shipments a year earlier. Those contracts are being removed so their overall ASP has the potential of falling more than reported. At the current elevated ASP they are basically not profitable to start without adjustments and subsidies. If DQ is getting a 10% markup, then this is bad for JKS and CSIQ as it means their input costs go up for Silicon to Cells that they buy. JKS also buys massive amount of finished modules from 3rd parties. This means that JKS costs are going to rise while they still have exposure to further module ASP decline QonQ due to expiring old contracts from 2018. CSIQ has been high margins in part due to lower input costs and a higher ASP driven from their projects and Japan business. Their input costs are going to rise as well along with the ASP. I would expect them to be neutrally impacted from the rise of ASP.
  13. SCSolar

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    2019 seems to be lining up for a bullish year for installations. This is with estimates pushing 120GW+ with the wild card being China demand. That growth rate is 20% increase of 2018 100+/- GW depending on research group. I have read anywhere between 98GW to 109GW for 2018 installations. For 2019, IHS has new installations at 123GW, BNEF has a low demand of 125GW and as high as 141GW as they have revised upwards due to ASP declines. Those rosey DQ numbers that were mentioned by some as being out of reality, looks to be backed by others forecasts. And remember, these are new installations. The module shipments for the year will be above the new installations as you will have shipments in November and December that are for early 2020 installs. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/bnef-offers-wide-range-forecast-for-global-solar-demand-in-2019
  14. SCSolar

    Solar News

    The way I read the article is they are canceling a Bond offering for 2 Billion RMB they initiated last year. They are starting an IPO listtng and hoping to raise 2.5Billion RMB. They do indicate cash flow issues due to high debt loads and interest.
  15. SCSolar

    Solar News

    Nice read on quality of modules. Apparently all manufacturers of 3GW or more are average to excellent. Even small manufacturers those between half a Gig to 3GW have pretty reliable quality. This was reviewing some 120 manufacturers. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/pi-berlin-dispels-long-held-views-on-solar-panel-quality
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