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SCSolar last won the day on December 23 2019

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  1. Yes, but you know that is most likely already part of their announced bookings.
  2. Duke energy looking to add a service charge of $1.10 to $2.39/MW hr for grid connected ground mount systems. https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2020/01/14/why-new-solar-bids-in-the-carolinas-are-facing.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo
  3. We shall see, supposedly GCL has cracked the degradation issues. Only time will tell but their roll out schedule would suggest they are confident that they will have the lifespan needed. "https://www.wsl-solar.com/Product_News/2019/0304/PV-modules.html Although there are many advantages over crystalline silicon cells, perovskite solar modules have fatal drawbacks, which is the main reason why this type of solar module is still not used on a large scale. First, the area of perovskite solar modules is difficult to enlarge. Currently, the area of perovskite cells developed by the laboratory is very small, and it is difficult to mass-produce. Secondly, the perovskite solar modules are relatively unstable and their core The layer is susceptible to external influences such as temperature and humidity, and the efficiency is greatly degraded. Why is the perovskite solar module of GCL Nano's trial production extremely disruptive? Because they overcome the above two major defects of the perovskite solar module. First, the size of the perovskite PV module manufactured by GCL Nano's 10MW pilot line reached 45cm*65cm, which has the potential to be applied in large-scale power plant projects. Secondly, the working life of the module is expected to reach more than 25 years."
  4. I wonder how real the price point is in theis article. Perovskite modules for 0.7RMB next year. That is $0.10 and on the low end of the $0.10-$15 range suggested in prior articles. They are also talking low light absorption as making a 18% efficient cell generate the power of 21% Csi. and 20% (expected next year) generating the same as 23% CsI power overall. This price point and low light power production is direct competition to FSLR at what appears to be a 40-50% lower price point than the FSLR S6. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200110/1035582.shtml
  5. The Rueters article suggests there are likely more to come on the lawsuit front. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-first-solar-settlement/first-solar-to-pay-350-million-to-end-shareholder-lawsuit-avert-trial-idUSKBN1Z51IT "First Solar said related lawsuits by plaintiffs that chose to sue on their own rather than join the class action, and by plaintiffs suing company officials in a so-called derivative lawsuit, remain pending."
  6. 17.5GW @ $0.033 GP /watt = $577.5M current Opex = $128M/Q 3500MW @$0.01 shipping =$52M 5% current Opex reduction = $25.2M $577.5-512-52-(-25.2)= $38.57M Profits yep $1 before subsidies, cvd reversals, forex etc. And that is worst case. They are looking at 3-4GW at an ASP of $0.33 or more from the U.S. A $0.22 ASP would imply a $0.192 ASP for the ROW for high efficient Mono Perc That is not going to happen Reality is they are going to have an ASP at the $0.235 or higher for the year with a clear bias for higher.
  7. I am fine with 17.5GW @ $0.23 ASP with 17.5% margins. That can yield juicy profits for JKS. Even a $0.22 ASP and 15% margins will have nice profits. On the other hand a company going forward with little projects and unprotected markets and half those sales will have issues.
  8. And yet as of yesterday here is IHS out with their 142GW demenad forcast for 2020. http://news.ihsmarkit.com/prviewer/release_only/slug/bizwire-2020-1-7-solar-installations-to-grow-by-additional-142-gw-in-2020-seven-times-the-worlds-total-solar-installations-a-decade-ago
  9. It is not any money out of your pocket. In fact they are up good today because it removes clouds.
  10. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-20/china-set-for-massive-coal-expansion-in-threat-to-climate-goals
  11. The only real news is the suggestion of 30-31GW for 2020 in that article. The reliance on coal and expansion of coal was known as well as the intent of the government to lower the basic power costs for coal mentioned in the article. That 30-31 GW suggested in the article is below the 37.5GW in the slide that Klothhilde supplied in the article she linked to. That article she linked to had China at 30% of the 125GW Global demand.
  12. suggestions of ASP falling to 30 RMB. "Photovoltaic News believes that in 2020, polysilicon for ingots will fall to 30 yuan a kilogram as a high probability event." If that happens cost could be as $0.02 / watt for SI. Shove that in your pipe and smoke it FSLR.
  13. That is past looking, I would look to the future. As we have discussed on this board due to the policy extension of time to build we expected a significant drop in the completion rates as many projects would be pushed into 2020. That would tend to be additive to the next years totals. If you take flat 2029 installs of 25-30GW and add the 10GW estiamtes that fell out of projects, then you would have 35-40GW. BNEF is estimating 35-45GW of demand from China next year. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191230/1032325.shtml
  14. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20191225/1031307.shtml Monocrystalline wafer overcapacity will be the "lethal poison" of price the price of single crystal silicon wafers has not changed significantly for 17 months. The only price change during this period occurred in April 2019. In March, the price dropped from 3.15 yuan to 3.07 yuan, and the main reason was that the value-added tax was reduced from 16% to 13%. according to the statistics of the Photovoltaic Industry Association, China ’s wafer output in the first three quarters was 99.4GW, a year-on-year increase of 44.3%; January-October output was 113.7GW, a year-on-year increase of 46.1%. New capacity expansion is mainly based on single crystals. However, it is also the explosion of monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity that has become the "lethal poison" of its price growth-absolute excess capacity. In 2020, the production capacity of 191GW single crystal wafers is sufficient to meet the needs of domestic and overseas markets. Longji, Central, Jinko, JA Solar ... The strong production capacity of many photovoltaic companies will inevitably cause prices to fall, so as to compete for more markets Share. Excessive production capacity, limited markets, and unlimited competition have led to the inevitable result of price loosening and falling. A few days ago, related articles predicted that as soon as G2 in 2020, the price of single crystal silicon wafers will start to loosen, which will cause cliff-like, avalanche-like prices to fall. It is even possible that the price may be lower than 2.5 yuan.
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