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SCSolar

Solar Member
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About SCSolar

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  1. Trading Solars

    I come to a different conclusion in book values and share price. If one takes project asset valuation less accrued debt. CAFD has nearly $1B in asset valuation in this instance vs CSIQ having near $300M in out of pocket investments for their projects.
  2. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Thanks for the link. One of the links has the IPO information and the FIT. Ichigo t averaged of 38.8Yen. I guess if you want an apples to apples comparison then one needs to know what the average FIT is for the projects in the CSIQ IPO. The June 2014 presentation from CSIQ had an average FIT of 36 Yen. The twoj larger projects of 45 and 25MW had a 40 Yen FIT. http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/19/196781/CSIQ_IR_PPT_June_10_2014_Final.pdf
  3. Hanwha Q CELLS (HQCL)

    Mono Perc has LID and LeTID issues as well. It is not as pronounced as the multi wafer Perc that can lose 8-10%. HQCL stated in their con call that mono Perc also has LeTID issues. This is from the Seeking Alpha transcript. "The LeTID effect was long believed to only appeaser on multicrystalline wafers, however this is not the case. Hanwha Q Cells featured a presentation at the R&D conference 'Silicon PV' in Germany in April showing that LeTID can also significantly reduce the energy yield of monocrystalline PERC solar cells. Based on tests we conducted on PERC modules from competitors we are concerned about the quality level of PERC models. So our recommendation to anyone using PERC modules is to test for LeTID through count injection of about 1 ampere at 75 degree centigrade in a climate chamber for several days." The PV Insights article also indicates that LID is not just a multi issue. "Trupke, who is also the Deputy Director of the UNSW’s PV Centre of Excellence, did caution that some manufacturer claims that LID in mono and multi PERC cells has been “solved” should be treated with caution." The last link from researchgate indicates "All cells fabricated with four different ingot sources have high possibility of over 3% LID in output power, and the oxygen concentration is not correlated with power drop. Only one of the seven cell types surveyed from the worldwide market has LID less than 3%"
  4. Hanwha Q CELLS (HQCL)

    Robert What do you make of the LeTID discussion by HQCL in their conference call. They spent 3 paragraphs on the topic and suggested that the degradation was not just Multi Perc. HQCL suggested that many of their PERC competitors have the issues in both Multi and Mono cells in which customers or the industry should set up testing for. I know from reading CSIQ new Black Silicon modules that they are using half sized wafers to reduce the impact of LeTID. Any idea what competitors that HQCL is talking about and do you see many recalls in the future from legacy PERC sales that are now or will be failing warranty? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4097580-hanwha-q-cells-co-ltd-s-hqcl-management-q2-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single https://www.q-cells.com/dam/jcr:d7f9a746-82cf-4e21-a833-8b4e2374bf33/Hanwha_Q_CELLS_White_Paper_POLY_Q.ANTUM_VS._POLY_PERC_2017-03_Rev02_EN.pdf https://www.pv-magazine.com/magazine-archive/emerging-fix-for-lid-in-multi-perc/ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/306031861_LIGHT_INDUCED_DEGRADATION_OF_P-MONO_PERC_FROM_INGOT_CELL_MODULE_TO_SYSTEM
  5. Solar News

    The 201 decision is not going to be good either way it is decided. If is enacted and a $0.70 floor is put in place, solar is dead for all but rooftop. This creates a continued oversupply and a re-direction of modules to other parts of the world. Those other areas will have modules dumped into them at cost or below cost. If if it is dropped, then demand slacks due to the rush and an ASP war continues. Neither of those 2 options are beneficial near term. The second is more beneficial in that the supply pull in should be drained eventually and a reasonable flow of inventory should be established again at low low ASP.
  6. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    That is a big drop from last quarters ASP given the market trend suggestions of stronger ASP in the US and China in Q2. How did you come up with $0.37?
  7. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Major U.S. project sales to be in Q4 or pushed out to Q1 as they are awaiting regulatory approval. The Jreit is going to be 65MW with paper work fillings starting at the end of Sept to early Oct. Then the roadshow to sell the JREIT. The JREIT will be small projects and not large projects. They feel they can sell the 50MW of large projects directly to buyers for similar value as the JREIT.
  8. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Nice shipment volumes and increased revenues. The Q3 Guidance with the margins being suggested indicate they should pull down a profit. My concern is where are all the project sales to reach their full year guidance. They need to have a very large Q4 for revenues if they are going to come close to their initial $4B to $4.2B of revenues.
  9. Trading Solars

    If China and India go to war, how would this impact China business in India? That is the third largest solar market. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-pushes-hard-in-border-dispute-with-india/2017/07/06/52adc41e-619b-11e7-80a2-8c226031ac3f_story.html?utm_term=.90930cb35206
  10. Trading Solars

    That comes from years of being shell shocked. You know you buy on what you believe will be the momentum swing only to have it go through a 20-30% pullback. Then when things really turn, you think that it is going to pull back so you duck out early. It is sort of Pavlovs dog theory, through real life conditioning.
  11. NextEra Energy is starting to sue states that has put in regulations against wind. Big energy in the Courthouses again battling rural america that does not want them. http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/07/22/opinion-untold-story-is-rural-america-keeps-rejecting-big-wind/
  12. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    It could have something to do with the slide at the 2:40 mark regarding total installed capacity from 2016 to 2030 expected capacity. The chart suggests 108GW a year average for 14 years. In 2016 estimates are installations were 76GW. If this was a linear market growth, then the growth is only 4.6GW per year peaking at 140GW in 2030. When you model a modest 5% ASP drop per year from then the current ASP of around $0.42 the end ASP at 2030 is $0.20. Global module sales revenue from module sales with be $10B lower than the revenues from 2016 of 76GW @$.50 blended. That is a 25% drop in revenues from sales from 2016.
  13. First Solar (FSLR)

    If the IRR is equal for the purchase price to the buyer then why should the selling price be lowered? A 10% return on $1B is the same if you buy 500MW or 750MW. As a buyer, I would buy either one or both at the asking price if it returns the same rate per $ invested. The only differentiation would be the quality of the customer of the PPA. With respect to newer vs older projects, the length of the PPA remaining would have a large part of the decision making. Do I get a 10% IRR for 25 years or do I get an IRR of 10% for 15-20 years. What is the prospect after the contract ends of getting the customer to re-up for a similar return? In the case of a 10% return on a PPA agreement of $0.10 vs an agreement on a PPA of $0.05 that yields a 10% rate of return, there is clearly more risk to the higher PPA not being renewed at the $0.10 PPA. Thus the cash flow from PPAs beyond the contracted years is clearly more at risk for the higher PPA as you bought less MW. This is the only reason I can see as to why a company would pursue the less expensive projects with more MW but the same IRR.
  14. JA Solar (JASO)

    That offer is not even the 50 day moving average as of yesterday being $6.83.
  15. JA Solar (JASO)

    CEO is a crook.
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