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SCSolar

Solar Member
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SCSolar last won the day on November 21

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About SCSolar

  1. Solar News

    Wow 50GW of Capacity being added for Mono..... " As China-based makers will ramp up production at new facilities in 2018, solar-grade mono-Si wafers will be short of demand and increasingly competitive in price along with decreasing production cost, Li noted. China-based solar-grade mono-Si wafer makers' combined annual production capacity will increase from 17GWp in early 2017 to 65GWp at the end of 2018. "
  2. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    In Q4 2016 PV Insights had Multi at $0.39 average. Today they are at $0.31 average. In Q4 2016 JKS was at $0.41 ASP with <10% mono. In Q3 they were at $0.37 with 30% mono. You might find that stable, but I do not.
  3. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    The ASP has not stabilized. What you have witnessed in some ER's is the impact of migration to higher end products giving the illusion of higher ASP. For example JKS has maintained a $0.37 ASP for the past 3 quarters. This has happened as they have shifted from almost exclusively multi (10%) to more mono and mono Perc. They are now at 30% mono and mono Perc. The only way you ramp production of higher priced products yet maintain the same ASP to slightly down is that the ASP is dropping. That high efficiency product has been propped up by artificial demand created by the CN government. Since late October these high end products have been dropping 2-3% every couple of weeks due to price disparity with Mono/Perc vs Multi. Just this past week PVInsights has the the price for PERC dropping another 1.6%. Longi back in November cut the price per wafer by almost 10% to spur demand and compete with multi. http://pvinsights.com/ As most all companies have indicated, you will see a continued ASP decline over the next couple of years. It may not be the 30-40% of this past year, but most companies have indicated the ASP will decline. The project ASP's have been stated as needing to decline 40% over the next few years and with that the ASP's for modules will continue their decline. Do not be fooled by a momentary flattening of the ASP decline that is buried in regional sales and specific higher ASP blends. This higher ASP products are having their price drop significantly and the price disparity with Multi which is at $0.31 average will clearly narrow.
  4. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Lithium mining stocks have done very well and demand is forecast to quadruple in the next few years. FMC ALB are the 2 major players.
  5. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I traded Trina several times for small 3-7% gains prior to taking my final position for a 15% gain. I might do that for CSIQ if it pulls back to 10% from offer. I can see a need to offer more like $20 for the sale to close but I will not buy based on that assumption.
  6. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    There is no breach of trust. The risks of conflicts with the Chairmen of CN companies has always been clearly identified in the 20F. Our founder, Dr. Shawn Qu, has substantial influence over our company and his interests may not be aligned with the interests of our other shareholders. As of March 31, 2017, Dr. Shawn Qu, our founder, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, beneficially owned 13,649,339 common shares, or 23.5% of our outstanding shares. As a result, Dr. Qu has substantial influence over our business, including decisions regarding mergers and acquisition, consolidations and the sale of all or substantially all of our assets, the election of directors and other significant corporate actions. This concentration of ownership may discourage, delay or prevent a change in control of our company, which could deprive our other shareholders of an opportunity to receive a premium for their shares as part of a sale of our company and might reduce the price of our common shares
  7. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    It actually makes perfect sense for the CEO of Canadian Solar to want to take the company private. You always want to buy low. The cost to take them private is $800M ish. They have $614M in unrestricted cash. There is a ton of equity coming into the company in the next 6 months in the form of cash that was invested in the projects as well as the profits themselves.
  8. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Do you see the market recovering for solar? JKS with 10GW+ of shipments in not likely to earn $1 in 2018 from Roberts earlier comments. Demand for next year coupled with ASP erosion is going to be yet another flat to down revenue year. With declining ASP and tight poly for the next year, there is little room for increased profits from the module business. The ASP for projects in competitive bids are dropping significantly to where a company like Trina has decided not to build in India. Demand may have soared this past year, but profits have not and there is no sense of recovery for the next year or 2. There is only 1 way for solar prices to go and that is to continue the downward trend to make it competitive in poor insolation areas. My goodness what are people going to talk about when the final 2 major CN companies go private? HQCL, DQ and FSLR?
  9. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    The transcript is out https://seekingalpha.com/article/4130474-jinkosolars-jks-ceo-chen-kangping-q3-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript " Cao Haiyun Mahdeep, we expect the gross margin to be stable. As talked by Gener, the ASP we're impacting the Q4 is quite stable. From the cost perspective, the polysilicon price is putting some pressures, but however we continue to cut our OEM volume as well as the improvement of in-house on certain cost. And we are also benefiting from slightly down for the solar cell price. So, we expect the blended module cost in Q4 is stable compared to the Q3. "
  10. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Selling expenses rose 8.5% per watt from Q2. In Q2 it was $0.0282 and in Q3 it is $0.0308. Is this due to the increased shipments outside of China as China was only 1/3rd the shipments in Q3?
  11. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    Q3 ER is out http://ir.jinkosolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=234421&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2321557
  12. First Solar (FSLR)

    I was not comparing FSLR to JKS, rather commenting on FSLR to Longi. I was indicating FSLR might have a slight advantage over Longi when you add shipping costs to Longi. If they do it is likely very low at a penny or 2. The point is FSLR would lose any advantage over Longi on an operational income per watt from modules due to high Opex. All the CN companies should have similar shipping and insurance costs. Therefore if Longi is shipping to the Asian peninsula, then they are adding maybe 1-1.5 cents to the $0.27 indicated in the question of your post. The higher end shipments to the U.S. or the EU would be up at $0.30. That is the range the FSLR gave. What was not pointed out by FSLR was their probable inefficient operational income prospects from modules. The CN companies Opex is in the range of $25M for GA and Dev costs. This is spread over the GW shipped and is only $0.01-$0.015 for pure module manufacturers. This would imply a total cost for Longi including Opex of $0.27+$0.0125+$0.01= $0.295 for shipments to Asia area. FSLR would have a total cost of manufacturing + Opex of $0.27+$0.065=$0.335/W(Granted FSLR spends some on the projects division) When you are comparing pure modules of FSLR to Longi, FSLR may not look all that good right now for module selling unless of course, there is an advantage in the markets and the ASP each sell into.
  13. First Solar (FSLR)

    From a pure manufacturing cost perspective, they may have a slight cost advantage of a penny or 2. JKS by example has sales at $0.022/W and that includes shipping and insurance. That includes shipments to the U.S. and Europe to get blended costs. The shipments to Asia Pac regions are a far lower and at the lower end of the $0.28 range. Where FSLR loses much of the advantage is in the Operational expenses. They are running at over $0.06 per watt compared to the low $0.03 for a JKS. Granted FSLR business model is more in line with CSIQ with the Project business built in to the Opex.
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