SCSolar

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About SCSolar

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  1. That offer is not even the 50 day moving average as of yesterday being $6.83.
  2. CEO is a crook.
  3. If this tariff goes through, how does this order impact Sunpower? They have most of their production in the Philippines and in a partnership in China. Sunpower has 1.2GW of capacity in China in JV and was looking at expanding to 5GW. https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/05/22/how-sunpowers-5-gw-chinese-joint-venture-can-add-value/2/
  4. Are you expecting the sales of the 3 projects to show up in Q1? The transcripts on SA stated that these will be in Q417. It reads as if they have sold them but there may be some acceptance terms before completion of the sale. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4056870-canadian-solars-csiq-ceo-dr-shawn-qu-q4-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single "The sales of the other three operating solar power plants in Canada was closed in February for over C$257 million including the associated projects and will be reflected in our financial statement for Q4 2017."
  5. Apologies. It was not Saudi Electric but the 1177MW Abu Dhabi Power and Water agreements.
  6. Saudi Electric is a 2019 COD target. The modules for that will probably be shipped in the late first half to second half of 2018. They will be getting some EPC contract revenue for the planning and construction management. The whole project is being built for $0.70/watt. Based on that , there is not much room for recognized EPC revenue after subs and suppliers are paid. A conservative estimate might generate gross profit on sales of modules and EPC work at $60-80M spread over 2017-2019. That is a 6-9% margin on the overall project. This goes to show that even on Mega scale , there is little profits in projects.
  7. You consider this a late ER? Last years ER date was set on 5/17, the year before on 5/15. Both years the ER was near the end of May.
  8. I generally concur that a late ER is a sign of bad news. Pure speculation, but I would not be surprised that they re-adjust the values of their project portfolios in the U.S. I might also look at the 4 week notice of the E.R. as a positive. Again speculation but to me it would suggest they are waiting for a major announcement such as paperwork filed for a J-Reit or some major portfolio sales agreement that they expect to be sold by then.
  9. How much cash do you think they net after debt and the initial company funds to build the projects? Do you believe Canadian Solar will hold a percentage of the J-REIT or will the divest 100% when you are looking at those numbers?
  10. CSIQ should have a very strong forward guidance in the press release. My expectation is that the stock will bounce up on the forward guidance of $1.2B a quarter in revenues. This guidance I do not believet includes the J-REIT spinoff in Q4 or Q118 .
  11. In the past, the forward guidance has been the major driver for the stock. As Q1 is guided it is expected weak. A shortfall is not that bad on the stock as long at future guidance is strong. If they miss Q1 but Q2 and the full year are guided inline with full year, then this is a bullish sign. I might expect that the Q2 guidance being a bangup quarter might temper any price drop one could expect from weak Q1 earnings. I might believe that wherever the price is a week or two before earnings, it will only go up after the ER if a strong Q2 is guided and full year re-affirmed or raised.
  12. Jaso should get the impact studies done and allowed to proceed. The problem is that the 6 month delays have caused them to miss a window for shipping tariff free modules to the U.S before the ASP collapse to the U.S. The ASP in the U.S. according to Jaso is already $0.37 in Q1. That removes a market they can sell into until ramped capacity in Vietnam.
  13. http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fslr/insider-trades
  14. How can that be? They had operational expenses of $345M in 2016 from continuing operations. They expect to ship 8.5-9GW. From their preliminary guidance, this is in the range of $3-$3.25B in revenue. Can they really reach 10-11% which is lower than 2016 Opex while shipping 30% more shipments?
  15. Looking at the cost per watt for acquisition is not a fair way to determine that First Solar projects are worse for an investment. The First Solar projects have a PPA based on the 2008 MPR. These lock in 20 year rates at PPA of $0.12 or less. The Roserock PPA from Recurrent is $0.045/KWhr with Austin Energy. There is twice as much revenue that is derived from the First Solar acquisition. Similar profits could be made from each per dollar invested. http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PUBLISHED/COMMENT_RESOLUTION/121158.htm http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/published/Comment_resolution/93316.htm http://www.utilitydive.com/news/austin-energy-gets-record-low-solar-bids-at-under-4-centskwh/401642/