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odyd

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This looks like a promo, I did for PV-Mag, general numbers and %. No detail. Perhaps more than I would say.

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I have not received reply from SZ on the new format. I think that for benefit of all, inlcuding just small investor, I will keep Export data as a seperate report and the big format $200, will be made only for few interested parties. I wll keep you updated on those events. When I hear more from Solarzoom.

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Hi new buyers, anyone have questions in regard of data? We are also discussing potential of bigger format, including other concepts. I would not mind to know your thoughts on it.

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Thank you once again for making the information available. Based on an initial glance, it seems to me that the Tier 1 players are continuing to increase market share and making good process on diversifying into new markets. As an investor in TSL, I am pleasantly surprised by the data over the past couple months. They, as well as others, seem to be less reliant on domestic sales, which suggests they will have higher than expected realized Q1 ASPs due to improved sales mix. Though some of those export sales could be from existing inventory, TSL has reduced their inventory levels over past couple quarters so I think there is increased likelihood that they will have significantly more sales outside of China in Q1 2013 vs Q4 2012. Additionally, looking at exports as a % of monthly capacity, it seems TSL may also be close to running at 100% utilization as this does not consider domestic sales. All in all, I think the data shows that TSL may benefit from both reduced COGS as a result of higher utilization as well as higher ASPs due to improved sales mix. Non-EU Exports have increased substantially over last few months, which is also a very positive trend. Though overall exports were down from Jan, non-U exports were up month over month

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Spinvestor, I sent the PDF, I hope you will like it. Thanks for thoughtful summary. The only watch out, these are deliveries. Meaning sales may not be materialized or rather equal to deliveries, particularly when sent to ports of Holland and Belgium . This is how PDF I sent can be useful in application of the deliveries, vs. sales global and domestic. Certainly the level of deliveries by TSL is a positive shift from Q4 nevertheless. Those who see strong sales in Japan and US and Australia will extract better ASP. This is why I heavily pursue the idea of ASP with Solarzoom. One look and we can see if there is pricing differentiation. Another watch out here, declaration could be skewed if its is done to lower value or it is careless. ps. Klothilde, based on data from SZ I was told that JA sent average of 250W modules to Japan in Janaury and 230 in February, but I was cautioned to draw a conclusion on it as not being reflective of dropping the efficiency in products. Nevertheless I am rather excited that January shipment was having such a high average.

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Odyd, have you considered advertising the monthly reports in banner or display ads on the site? (you may already be doing this, but I dont recall seeing them, if so). Honestly, if more people had any idea how valuable the data in these reports was, they would gladly buy them.

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I advertise already on the site and on the forum. I have even paid Google AdWords to do so. I wrote articles for PV-Mag, advertising it there. I feel I done a lot to make people aware. It is a tough sale. I guess spending $27 is more horrifying than knowing, what is happening. I truly cannot explain this phenomenon.

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Interesting data... I am pleased to see that many are delivering close to their capacity. But how do you base your investment decision from this data? All I see is top five/six are separating from the pack, as far as export is concerned. I am not asking you to divulge the ASP information, but if someone has access to that report, can you combine both the reports and predict who might be closer to break-even? I am not discrediting the report, I just want to know how you are using this data.

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Well, first of all, you looking at one month, so you have a somewhat limited depth. If you looking in area of the guidance, which is the most important thing first, you would gauge how deliveries line up with it. If you were invested in LDK, I suppose you would be disappointed in level of shipments there, but if you have like I have YGE, I feel semi-comfortable that shipments are at high levels. Second you look at the markets. We know what sort of ASP markets have out there. Say Japan, US are high ASP. Australia, South Africa etc. What is the delivery level there, is an observation to make for each company. Now, you can see how companies move against each other. Let's not kid ourselves, they ship modules, more they ship, the greater chance of earning revenue, so it is something to watch. Development of solar markets, is another. There is ASP data available, but I have not got Solarzoom to provide us with it yet. I think there is a debate over the critical aspect of it. I am having trouble to get this info for this reason, despite a lot higher pricing level. Since most of us here have seen 4 to 5 months of it, we have an idea how things play in results. This is not a science yet, but beats guessing and assumption. Let me know if this makes sense. Of course this is my experience. Perhaps others can share their own.

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Thanks odyd. It will be interesting to see if export in March fell of a cliff, or the recent weakness is nothing more than manipulation.

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