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odyd

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That is good, I hope other 2 people who are here can join us. No point if it is just you and I.

Edited by odyd
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Just to get the discussion started. Since I've been looking extra carefully at SOL recently and because they gave very detailed geograpical Q4 guidance breakdown I'll post my observation of exports to shipment guidance ratio for them. They sent 185 MW modules on exports in Q3 on 145 MW reported Q3 module shipments (no domestic module shipments were indicated for Q3). For Q4, on the module side, they guided 120-130 MW shipments to Europe, 30 MW to US, 30 MW to Australia and 70-80 MW to China. So midrange total 260 MW shipments with 185 MW on export and 75 MW domestically was guided for. The Q4 export numbers show that they sent 191 MW to Europe, 41 MW to US, 30 MW to Australia and 8 MW to other destinations. In total 269 MW was sent on exports in Q4 compared to the guided 185 MW shipments on exports for Q4. So in summary, for second half of 2012 they've guided for 330 MW (145 MW Q3 confirmed + 185 MW Q4 guided) module shipments on exports, but exports data show 454 MW sent. So they show 37% more sent on exports than guided shipments on export for the past 6 months. This does not necessarily mean that they will beat guidance, but they have a good exports data to guidance ratio compared to peers and the 6 months perspective should reduce short-term inventory movement effects a bit. The reason for this much higher ratio compared to peers could be that they are building international stock, while peers are reducing, they are after all a newcomer that doubled their module capacity very recently, while others might have utilized too much capacity in 2011 and 1H2012 and caused channel inventory to be clogged with their modules. SOL could also have decided to ship less domestically and more on exports, which could partially cover the discrepancy. At the same time it's worth remembering that SOL is known for prudent management, but also that they are new to module business and aggressively expanding it with confidence borderlining to cocky. Their great success in poly and wafer production process improvements the past year have caused quite aggressive shipments in 2012 ("claim what you can and think is merit warranted"), while most peers except YGE have cooled market-share ambitions in 2H2012. So there are too many moving parts to say anything about how they'll ship compared to guidance in Q4, but I think one can conclude that the exports data is indicating that SOL is gaining market-share in the module space, especially on exports from China. Another name that gave clear export guidance and had a noteworthy exports to shipment guidance ratio was TSL. They guided for 293 MW Q4 shipments on exports, while only 152 MW was sent on exports in Q4. This too can be explained with other possible reasons than that shipments will deviate from guidance. The incredible domestic demand in Q4 might have surprised many and we should see JKS, YGE and JASO report well above 50% shipped domestically and it looks like TSL could have routed for the same.

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Good analysis. I am writing an article for PV to further introduce this data. Part of the warning is STP, TSL. However high stock of inventory for those companies, well TSL could be an answer. At one point TSL had minimum of 200MW of modules in inventory if not more. CSIQ was also heavy so was JA, which is also a watch out. I am threading carefully not to say they may not meet the guidance but more so they have enough inventory to meet it, but deliveries show gap.

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Yes, the stock selling (as opposed to building for SOL) is good a point for TSL. Basically if they sell internationally from overseas stock and decided to ship new production to the fill the shocking domestic demand instead of replenishing overseas stocks in a time of tariff uncertainty that could explain why some companies have few modules sent on exports despite guiding for high shipments on exports. It should be good to tread carefully and cover all bases in your article. It's probably a difficult quarter to read the exports data and interpret it correctly. It has too much to say about the market turmoil right now, which makes it harder to interpret it correctly, since there's multiple interprations fitting the description now.

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As You are aware by now the data for ReneSola is only 209MW so, they are still on target if the deliveries from Q3, which were over the reported number in the quarter counted toward Q4. I have sent you all the new report with the adjustment.

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I think there is a bit of audit on the December data or info was resent as they sent me new number for Holland for Rene at 36.45MW, they also reduced others for Holland to 55.87MW. I sent you a new file. This happens for the first time in 3 months so maybe someone made the initial error (customs) and now they corrected it.

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Thanks for providing the corrections from SolarZoom.

For Q4, on the module side, they guided 120-130 MW shipments to Europe, 30 MW to US, 30 MW to Australia and 70-80 MW to China. So midrange total 260 MW shipments with 185 MW on export and 75 MW domestically was guided for. The Q4 export numbers show that they sent 191 144 MW to Europe, 41 MW to US, 30 MW to Australia and 8 MW to other destinations. In total 269 222 MW was sent on exports in Q4 compared to the guided 185 MW shipments on exports for Q4.

So in summary, for second half of 2012 they've guided for 330 MW (145 MW Q3 confirmed + 185 MW Q4 guided) module shipments on exports, but exports data show 454 407 MW sent. So they show 37% 23% more sent on exports than guided shipments on export for the past 6 months.

I've corrected the affected numbers above. The deviation between guided export shipments and goods sent on export in 12H2 went down from 37% to 23%. The discussion of what deviations generally could mean for beating guidance, devation from guided domestic share of shipments or building overseas stock still applies, but there's less deviation for Renesola now.
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Nice to see CSIQ, SOL, YGE and TSL staying atop of the table. Jinko is also holding nicely. JA is a suprising drop, but maybe home aspect is more in their sales.

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ReneSola pushing a lot of volume to Europe, and not much anywhere else. Lost its leadership in Greece, to Phono. Still decent volume to Europe and nice to see the company among four. The Japan and the US markets, they are not really that big for them.

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ReneSola pushing a lot of volume to Europe, and not much anywhere else. Lost its leadership in Greece, to Phono. Still decent volume to Europe and nice to see the company among four. The Japan and the US markets, they are not really that big for them.

Looks like top 4 which I think most agree here are likely to survive had very strong shipments... Top 4 all increased export shipments rather dramatically! STP fell off dramatically. SOL made it's first sales in Japan... Interested to see MoM growth for them there since they landed big contract just recently. Data from US looks very strong with exports doubling! Also SOL dominating australian market lost lead in Greece, but just barely. Anyways top4-5 solars look very strong from this data. Honestly I think if you sell the wife, kids, and everything else and purchase top 5 solars and wait 6-12 months you would make an absolute killing. Jk don't sell the kids... Wife well maybe. :)
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