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That is good, I hope other 2 people who are here can join us. No point if it is just you and I.

Edited by odyd

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Just to get the discussion started. Since I've been looking extra carefully at SOL recently and because they gave very detailed geograpical Q4 guidance breakdown I'll post my observation of exports to shipment guidance ratio for them. They sent 185 MW modules on exports in Q3 on 145 MW reported Q3 module shipments (no domestic module shipments were indicated for Q3). For Q4, on the module side, they guided 120-130 MW shipments to Europe, 30 MW to US, 30 MW to Australia and 70-80 MW to China. So midrange total 260 MW shipments with 185 MW on export and 75 MW domestically was guided for. The Q4 export numbers show that they sent 191 MW to Europe, 41 MW to US, 30 MW to Australia and 8 MW to other destinations. In total 269 MW was sent on exports in Q4 compared to the guided 185 MW shipments on exports for Q4. So in summary, for second half of 2012 they've guided for 330 MW (145 MW Q3 confirmed + 185 MW Q4 guided) module shipments on exports, but exports data show 454 MW sent. So they show 37% more sent on exports than guided shipments on export for the past 6 months. This does not necessarily mean that they will beat guidance, but they have a good exports data to guidance ratio compared to peers and the 6 months perspective should reduce short-term inventory movement effects a bit. The reason for this much higher ratio compared to peers could be that they are building international stock, while peers are reducing, they are after all a newcomer that doubled their module capacity very recently, while others might have utilized too much capacity in 2011 and 1H2012 and caused channel inventory to be clogged with their modules. SOL could also have decided to ship less domestically and more on exports, which could partially cover the discrepancy. At the same time it's worth remembering that SOL is known for prudent management, but also that they are new to module business and aggressively expanding it with confidence borderlining to cocky. Their great success in poly and wafer production process improvements the past year have caused quite aggressive shipments in 2012 ("claim what you can and think is merit warranted"), while most peers except YGE have cooled market-share ambitions in 2H2012. So there are too many moving parts to say anything about how they'll ship compared to guidance in Q4, but I think one can conclude that the exports data is indicating that SOL is gaining market-share in the module space, especially on exports from China. Another name that gave clear export guidance and had a noteworthy exports to shipment guidance ratio was TSL. They guided for 293 MW Q4 shipments on exports, while only 152 MW was sent on exports in Q4. This too can be explained with other possible reasons than that shipments will deviate from guidance. The incredible domestic demand in Q4 might have surprised many and we should see JKS, YGE and JASO report well above 50% shipped domestically and it looks like TSL could have routed for the same.

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Good analysis. I am writing an article for PV to further introduce this data. Part of the warning is STP, TSL. However high stock of inventory for those companies, well TSL could be an answer. At one point TSL had minimum of 200MW of modules in inventory if not more. CSIQ was also heavy so was JA, which is also a watch out. I am threading carefully not to say they may not meet the guidance but more so they have enough inventory to meet it, but deliveries show gap.

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Yes, the stock selling (as opposed to building for SOL) is good a point for TSL. Basically if they sell internationally from overseas stock and decided to ship new production to the fill the shocking domestic demand instead of replenishing overseas stocks in a time of tariff uncertainty that could explain why some companies have few modules sent on exports despite guiding for high shipments on exports. It should be good to tread carefully and cover all bases in your article. It's probably a difficult quarter to read the exports data and interpret it correctly. It has too much to say about the market turmoil right now, which makes it harder to interpret it correctly, since there's multiple interprations fitting the description now.

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As You are aware by now the data for ReneSola is only 209MW so, they are still on target if the deliveries from Q3, which were over the reported number in the quarter counted toward Q4. I have sent you all the new report with the adjustment.

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I think there is a bit of audit on the December data or info was resent as they sent me new number for Holland for Rene at 36.45MW, they also reduced others for Holland to 55.87MW. I sent you a new file. This happens for the first time in 3 months so maybe someone made the initial error (customs) and now they corrected it.

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Thanks for providing the corrections from SolarZoom.

For Q4, on the module side, they guided 120-130 MW shipments to Europe, 30 MW to US, 30 MW to Australia and 70-80 MW to China. So midrange total 260 MW shipments with 185 MW on export and 75 MW domestically was guided for. The Q4 export numbers show that they sent 191 144 MW to Europe, 41 MW to US, 30 MW to Australia and 8 MW to other destinations. In total 269 222 MW was sent on exports in Q4 compared to the guided 185 MW shipments on exports for Q4.

So in summary, for second half of 2012 they've guided for 330 MW (145 MW Q3 confirmed + 185 MW Q4 guided) module shipments on exports, but exports data show 454 407 MW sent. So they show 37% 23% more sent on exports than guided shipments on export for the past 6 months.

I've corrected the affected numbers above. The deviation between guided export shipments and goods sent on export in 12H2 went down from 37% to 23%. The discussion of what deviations generally could mean for beating guidance, devation from guided domestic share of shipments or building overseas stock still applies, but there's less deviation for Renesola now.

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Nice to see CSIQ, SOL, YGE and TSL staying atop of the table. Jinko is also holding nicely. JA is a suprising drop, but maybe home aspect is more in their sales.

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ReneSola pushing a lot of volume to Europe, and not much anywhere else. Lost its leadership in Greece, to Phono. Still decent volume to Europe and nice to see the company among four. The Japan and the US markets, they are not really that big for them.

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ReneSola pushing a lot of volume to Europe, and not much anywhere else. Lost its leadership in Greece, to Phono. Still decent volume to Europe and nice to see the company among four. The Japan and the US markets, they are not really that big for them.

Looks like top 4 which I think most agree here are likely to survive had very strong shipments... Top 4 all increased export shipments rather dramatically! STP fell off dramatically. SOL made it's first sales in Japan... Interested to see MoM growth for them there since they landed big contract just recently. Data from US looks very strong with exports doubling! Also SOL dominating australian market lost lead in Greece, but just barely. Anyways top4-5 solars look very strong from this data. Honestly I think if you sell the wife, kids, and everything else and purchase top 5 solars and wait 6-12 months you would make an absolute killing. Jk don't sell the kids... Wife well maybe. :)

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Please do not post data from January. Someone can buy Feb but not January. Sorry for this but unfortunately this must be the case.

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I'm surprised to only see SOL and TSL of the top names shipping as much as they can to Europe the last month before registration (March 5). Europe exports should crash in March. I expect US, Japan and India to get a lot of shipments instead.

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I talked to one of the executives yesterday and I was told Trina and Yingli have secured 500MW contract with Jabil in Poland. I consider this person a fairly well-informed. He is an exec for another US-listed.

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I talked to one of the executives yesterday and I was told Trina and Yingli have secured 500MW contract with Jabil in Poland. I consider this person a fairly well-informed. He is an exec for another US-listed.

Wow that's great news.... Where would those be Installed? Can't just be Poland?

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Is that 500 MW combined or separate? Well looks like they are following SOL who has already secured 400 MW of outsourcing. I contacted SOL regarding estimated outsourcing costs so I could compare them to ASP rise to see where margins fall. They told me once there is a formal announcement they would provide full details as to outsourcing costs. I still find it hard to believe that Europe would impose any penalties harsher than US which have had little effect on exports to US as you can see by export dats which is growing

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I am not sure, the plant is only 400MW, which to me seem like combined. Since like everything in EU will be under the tariff, companies will buy manufacturing in Europe and sell under their own name. Costs could be a lot higher. I think this is why outcome of tariffs will show next move, based on %

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Ok so Jan-March marks Q1 results. SOL shipped 100 MW in February without including domestic shipments to china. That puts them run rate of 300MW without china shipments and at very high end of guidance. In CC they mentioned they were seeing china surge to close to 50% of shipments. If this trend continued they could have almost hit all of q1 guidance in first 2 months of year. If march is even just decent they could ship nearly 400 MW and blow away guidance. I think they sandbagged Q1... TSL and YGE also look like they could beat big

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Let's be cautious. Those deliveries are not necessarily shipments generating revenue. They could be simply stock-piling modules. However if you look at the Q4 info, they have already delivered as much as Q4 in total. In case of Europe they could be stockpiling, and that will show March poorly. But perhaps alternative is emerging markets and of course China. India has already doubled vs. Q4.

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Let's be cautious. Those deliveries are not necessarily shipments generating revenue. They could be simply stock-piling modules. However if you look at the Q4 info, they have already delivered as much as Q4 in total. In case of Europe they could be stockpiling, and that will show March poorly. But perhaps alternative is emerging markets and of course China. India has already doubled vs. Q4.

Yes I agree odyd...have to be cautious with this data. But trying to connect the dots it looks encouraging. And also I don't mean to always just single out SOL, it's just the one I own so I know more of their numbers off top of my head. The top 4 all look very strong for Q1. I'm sure anything not shipped to Europe the premium Tier 1 can easily defer shipments to china and several other cow tries... The lower tiers might have more issues

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I am somewhat surprised by JASO. Second biggest in Japan as they have themselves predicted. Perhaps the focus is on domestic markets. Klothilde what you see? I am happy for Jinko, big in India for the Q1. It appears they switched gears to exports this year vs. Q4. Looking forward to their quarter.

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SOL sold at max capacity all on exports. I'm sure they shipped extra to Europe before registration which I'm sure got snatched up immediately. Any excess capacity probably went to China but there wasn't much left. Considering they are selling out without even help of china do you guys think they are picking markets with a bit higher ASP?

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Hi Pop. These are deliveries not equal to sales. Some of those deliveries could be also made out of the inventory. However it is very good sign that SOL is delivering what is capacity shows. You are right with small amount going to China their utilization must be good 100%. This is of course the guess. This is why I wanted incorporate other pieces of puzzle, utilization, ASP and average watt/module/model/cargo etc in the report. I am still hoping to have this added but the pricing will be a lot higher for those if SZ agrees. Probably of $200 per month. PS. Thus far with the sales of report I cannot run this site. I was excited with dozen sales in February, which gave me $60 to run $400 a month site. So far there are 6 reports sold in February or $30. Therefore, if I can get Solarzoom to agree to my 20% commission, ten sales $200 report would pay my costs. So naturally this is where my direction would be. Unfortunately if I sell 6 reports at $27, how many I can sell at $200? I hate to say it but when my server is up in November, I probably stop running this site, it just costs to much to do this. I share this with you, since you are paying customers, but consider you more than that. Thanks

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I just don't get it! For $27 you get a ton of data which gives the everyday investor insider info on shipments. If we can get solid ASP data for 200 I'm in. It seems like your member base is growing but your subscriptions aren't. Maybe 1 option is to charge a minimum fee per month to join site. $5/month maybe? Another option is we could promote this data on investorhub and yahoo message board. Maybe write a brief message on each board and we will follow up with a support message, if we promote your site and data we might be able to really grow your subscription base. Just some thoughts I would like to help in anyway possible!

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Hi Pop, thank you for your views. The core for the forum is not designed for subscription. I would have to buy new forum software import database etc, to have this work. There is no guarantee anyone would pay., but it is an idea. Yes, there are over 200 ids registered but at least 100 are spam.

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Moreover, I think the outcome of moving to new package would lead to cancellation sales of data at the $27.00 It is a give away to be honest. Instead the new package would have: 1. Export monthly data (current format) 2. ASP data (average per company/destination) 3. Utilization report (15 companies min., 11 US listed, 4 top in size and recognition, example GCL, Hareon, Chint, BYD) 4. Efficiency, volume of modules for destination, by item (module model description) Limited to 11 US-listed. Do not know what yet. 5. Any data which is in Solarzoom's possession but not available free. 6. Detail summary of Chinese market for past month. This means stopping weekly reports published on SPVI. This data is part of the subscription in China. However it would include company names, deep clandestine stuff only select eyes only. 7. Anything of value Solarzoom has but it is not out in the open and can be packaged. This would be priced around $210-200 per month. If I do the month, selling three of these will pay for 3 months of reports. I would keep forum free. If I can get Solarzoom on board with this and can eventually get 10 buyers, I can get this cost/revenue at 0. So this is where I see me going with it.

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