[Guest joshchang]

But then cash flows are more stable and less risky, so this should lower the discount rate a bit. Unfortunately there is no "peer" for such spin off portfolio to compare.

But it is good to know that time works for JKS as more plants are build and held valued at above 1,50 USD/watt, also capital is not an issue anymore after share offering. As opposed to names like SOL for which time is running against (the longer some serious spike in wafer/poly does not come the more they eat up equity and stretch the balance sheet).

That's the policy risk I talked about in China. Just imagine, if the plant is in US or Japan, investors will jump on 6%-7% almost risk free rate of return. In China, required rate of return is higher due to risk associated. 

[Guest BIPV Investor]

Carrying this conversation over from the main board.

 

From Pop: China market exploded in November and December... Obviously when this happens they will export less. I don't want to get I to data on this thread so maybe take any response to premium. If export numbers are alarming to you in curious as to your thoughts on GADP, especially for 3 specific companies.

 

The GADP for TSL, JKS and CSIQ looks fantastic. The question is, why would you not export as much as you could at those prices? Its hard to imagine that they were making more profitable sales in the mainland then exporting at $0.70.

[Makan 72]

Carrying this conversation over from the main board.

 

From Pop: China market exploded in November and December... Obviously when this happens they will export less. I don't want to get I to data on this thread so maybe take any response to premium. If export numbers are alarming to you in curious as to your thoughts on GADP, especially for 3 specific companies.

 

The GADP for TSL, JKS and CSIQ looks fantastic. The question is, why would you not export as much as you could at those prices? Its hard to imagine that they were making more profitable sales in the mainland then exporting at $0.70.

But then mainland chinese volume went down as well, just not as fast as us listed ones. If there would be deterioration of competitiveness of us listed solars then I guess we would not see rising GADP.

[Pop2mollys 416]

Carrying this conversation over from the main board.

From Pop: China market exploded in November and December... Obviously when this happens they will export less. I don't want to get I to data on this thread so maybe take any response to premium. If export numbers are alarming to you in curious as to your thoughts on GADP, especially for 3 specific companies.

The GADP for TSL, JKS and CSIQ looks fantastic. The question is, why would you not export as much as you could at those prices? Its hard to imagine that they were making more profitable sales in the mainland then exporting at $0.70.

One reason is because it will cost .03-.05 to export all over the world. Selling large amounts of module in china saves a ton on shipping. Not to mention ASP keeps rising in China.

[Guest BIPV Investor]

Agreed on the competitiveness notion and the reduced OPEX costs. It is just that at the start of a new upcycle, it sure would have been nice to see 75% of exports coming from the top 10 names as that would show that consolidation actually happened. Same goes with the China demand; think about how many mom-and-pop shops turned their lights back on over the past six months. 

[Pop2mollys 416]

BIPV I think you really need to focus on GADP. Shipments whether you see them increasing or decreasing for any companies mean absolutely nothing if companies aren't making a profit on them. In my mind the key is that margins are expanding and when I see GADP up 10-12% over Q3 for big three I get a warm fuzzy feeling that trumps any short term frustration. Don't get blinded by Wall Street games when have all the necessary data at your fingertips. The data points to a little slice of heaven coming our way...

[Scsnospam 117]

Agreed on the competitiveness notion and the reduced OPEX costs. It is just that at the start of a new upcycle, it sure would have been nice to see 75% of exports coming from the top 10 names as that would show that consolidation actually happened. Same goes with the China demand; think about how many mom-and-pop shops turned their lights back on over the past six months. 

bipv, would you care to share your reason(s) for holding/buying any of the solars, based on all the risk factors you often cite? What are the pros you see that outweigh the cons?

[Guest BIPV Investor]

Well the reasons are rather straightforward, namely 20-30% annual growth over the next decade. Whether the stocks are going to see that is a whole another question. Look at disk makers like Western Digital or SanDisk which are in a mature industry that has constant growth but constantly declining prices; large profits are always elusive. That being said, those are both 16-20 billion dollar companies and there is no bigger global market then energy.

 

I do believe that we are at the start of a 2 year up cycle in solar where profitability will return and the stock prices will get dragged out of the gutter. Maybe even a few of the big names will merge as if TSL and JKS merged, they would be quite the dominate force. Personally I have around a six month time frame for 80% of my solar investments as think there is a good 50-100% pop coming. The other 20% I'll hold onto and see what happens. But right now I have a half of a house's worth of money in solar and that is not a position that I can rationalize for a sustained period (less I go crazy and my wife kills me).

[Scsnospam 117]

Thanks. If you doubt that the stocks will reflect the industry growth, isn't that a con for you? Sometimes your comments confuse me as to whether you are long or short.

[Guest nanofrogfish_spf]

think about how many mom-and-pop shops turned their lights back on over the past six months.

 

How many?  Can you name/prove just 1?  Your post is based on shear conjecture without any factual basis (regardless if you're right or wrong). There is a totally different sector dynamic in place right now, that for the most part counters the doom & gloom point I think you were trying to make...