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Makan last won the day on May 5 2015

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  1. If CSIQ and JKS is right that margin stabilise in 2007 then the insiders and market would start to anticipate sometime now. Also sentiment is good for a nice rebound.
  2. Hi, it has been a long time from my last posting and I lost track a bit of PV. However all looks so low nowadays compared to 1 year ago. I realize solar has been in cyclical downturn with pressured component prices. Question to the legends of the board e.g. odyd and explo, where do you think we are in the cycle, near end of downturn? What I am missing is a perspective on demand growth, countries all seem to rather scale down, US, Japan, China... If there is not such a perspective where is the demand push coming from preventing margins to further deteriorate in a oversupply industry?
  3. I think it is not good to censor negative post to a company. Clearly CSIQ's strategy right now is not very logical now. Japan pipeline was assumed to be postponed due to cash rationalization, but they still have money to buy finished Canadian solar assets even though they stated that the have enough CAFD to start a YieldCo (that was said before the YieldCo crash). Whatfor this transaction? Therefore Broomhilda doubts to Japanese pipeline might not be going according to plan are not totally baseless at least. Or somebody can explain the logic?
  4. As far as I know they are not seen as relevant here anymore. They seem to change their strategy every quarter, now scaling down on module business and concentrating on projects in Romania and Bulgaria (BoS probably includes security people as well, as they have to be careful that the modules don't get stolen there from the racks) and doing wafers. Where is the synergies with that combination? I don't know.
  5. I think right now YieldCo IPO market is dead in US and in China. So planned IPOs will not happen end of 2015 or beginning of 2016. Over time I assume it will go through similar development like ABS, useful vehicle in principle, but abused by some, who put junk in it like GLBL. But this will take time, maybe we start to see now as YieldCo like CAFD, NYLP NEP, HASI and so on have been a bit more stable recently. SUNE's problem is now they have started construction on I think 2 GW but with uncertain finances, that could break their neck similar to SAG Solarstrom (you are German, surely you will know this case). CSIQ similar, they have to finish 1.2 GW in US by end of 2016 and have started half of them and need to get finance for that now or else their 265m investment for Recurrent is in the drain. That cost 2 bln. That is their risk now, however, they can raise some from remaining canadian project sales and have better balance sheet, so they have a chance manage the situation while they postpone Japan and other projects. JKS don't know, maybe IPO next year sometime only when project CF situation has improved by then.
  6. Broomhilda, just to keep things a bit in perspective when you talk of the past. 3 year chart of the majors which reflects nearly the time from cyclical low to high, FSLR in the middle together with TSL and JASO is worst JKS and CSIQ the leaders head to head. JASO last, that was your baby as well for a long time, right. So don't come around now and act like you are the smartest one here when your achievement in the current cycle is just being close to flat on your bets which is quite a lousy outcome. When you talk about stock prices, SOL it is near at the point where it started in spring 2013, so not much worse than JASO and FSLR to my amazement. So you could also talk about a JASO and FSLR fiasco? In general I think the board has done well in exchanging information. Because the longer time members should have been able to make decent profit over that time period. hmm, I attached charts here which don't seem to work and are gone, you can check them out yourself then...
  7. Are you kidding? Check out GLBL chart how the demand for projects in not so high quality countries is... straight line down since IPO. Who in US buys such a project portfolio? In China ASFAIK IPO market is still closed. Have said a few times China project portfolio is not IPOable mid term with cash flow issues. Only when resolved and market wants such stuff again (starting with lower risk assets) there can be a thought for JKS do a IPO.
  8. I think strategies of FSLR and CN4 are not comparable. Clearly CN4 want to go for volume as a mean to cut costs and there was no need to focus on efficiency as much and leave the costly effort to equipment suppliers, seen by relatively low R&D spending in mid single digit millions per quarter and timid capex. Whereas FSLR intends to bring efficiency up and goes less for volumes, understandable as FSLR consumes approx. 1/3 of available Tellurium supply at 2.7 GW capacity that could limit scaleability. They bought this efficiency leap with a run rate of 100 mln R&D per year and high sustaining capex. As FSLR has now caught up or even overtook on efficiency it will be interesting to see if CN4 and other Si manufacturers increase efficiency efforts as well. What came to mind when seeing 6 USD EPS projections for 2016 that equals about 600 mln net income. Will FSLR never pay some taxes? Of 94 mln of Q2 net income 33 mln of it was due to a tax credit. Adjusting for this would have been maybe around 45 mln net income for the quarter or say 180 mln annualized (about 1.80 USD EPS), yearly guidance also assumes only 2-5% tax rate. Considering that FSLR operates at full capacity already making around 3.5 bln revenue a year, there would be a large boost to GM and operating leverage needed. Is this realistic?
  9. I mean TERP always did the trick to have their debt amortization scheduled in later years, like this they can show high CAFD and people equaled that as cash available for dividend etc. But this is rubbish, assets depreciate over time and there is expiry of PPA someday and so debt principal has to be paid back some day. Just because there is no debt payment in any period doesnt mean there is none to pay eventually, even more later but from what cash flows? Funny, before market valued all YieldCos approx. the same based on CAFD without regard how it was calculated! Other YieldCos that I saw at least have more reasonable CAFD calculation, but still valuation was quite high. GLBL is even larger junk than TERP, most of their MW-portfolio was still due to be bought from all kind of low quality countries. By right it is in free fall, I am amazed they were still able to dump this paper into the market, but plan was for around 20, now below 13 already. Abengoa parent today with cap raise and asset sales due to liquidity problems due to assets in too many emerging countries. So YieldCos were seen as savior? They had one. The yieldCo hype had run its course and is over now, now comes the time that will show who has the pants on, liquidity and flexibility in capital allocation will be king. Those drunken sailor companies that don't have enough liquidity or who have lousy projects with bad cash flows situation will enter stress.
  10. What reaction did you expect. Check all the YieldCos, they are all in free fall and finally that bubble is popping. With that, any solar comp that is in project business can only go one direction. Valuation wise the problem is these YieldCos still look like they have a long way to go down until they don't incorporate irrational growth assumptions, especially TERP.
  11. Pops, could you post the email you got from Ed. It is weird, Sarus Solar seems to be existing with the 3 mentioned companies there was a similar story last year. Or was that just a similar maneuver as they talk of being a AAA rated company, which is BS. http://renewableenergyheadlines.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=2233:canadian-firms-to-invest-1-billion-in-odisha-in-form-of-fdi-for-solar-power&Itemid=272 It is interesting how lies can make it up to so many major news portals, can be found at quite a number of places. They all seem to just copy from each other, is it so easy to manipulate stock price nowadays?
  12. It is just a module supply deal into a low ASP country, another none event. PPAs are not signed yet, too.
  13. Yes I agree. My europe stocks are the ones pretty stable now and giving . I am always amazed how mad US exchanges are as there are better analysts over there. In US, companies that tend to have good business (even temporary) tend to be traded up to sky, and those with currently bad business climate tend to be dumped towards 0. In europe good material and junk is valued same, LOL, because most dont know what is a good and bad company here...;-)
  14. Doubt he will get financing from the banks anyways in this environment. But if the money shown on the balance sheet is really there it could be financed by the companies own assets. The problem in China is that 95% of stock holders are gamblers and they always run into same direction making this quick boom and busts possible. Wonder what happened to all these newly opened margin accounts over there. Sad.
  15. But not a bad price. I think they sell 25% for 193 mln. That is about 1 times sales of the company. For a uncompetitive company in a lousy business. SUNE is good at selling crap at golden prices. I checked yesterday again SUNE's reports to find out what is so wonderful about the company. Really, they just talk of future potential of trillions USD and double digit GWs pipeline giving even fancy future possible conversion rates based on past and funny things like unlevered CAFD (what crap measure is this anyway, cash flow before interest for solar projects, that is like talking about profit before all costs). Little about what they done for real value and about the loss that is more than revenue. When I read it, most things sound like with a marketing purpose. But anyway, it is the love of WS and everything is possible. As I say this, I am sure it will double within a few month, now at close to 9 bln market cap already. SEMI, same style as their selling shareholder: Praising their operating cash flow in Q's report, for a company that has permanently high capex requirement just to stay in the game. But they are good at burning equity. In Europe we say, the apple does not fall far away from the trunk.
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