[Makan 72]

Just finished reading the transcript. Actually quite downbeat about project pricing, sceptical about China and industry outlook. They think there will be a downturn starting end 2016 and 2017:

 

I will say that I think we do have a note of caution about the overall market position as we exit 2016 and move into 2017. The demand that we're pulling forward into 2016 broadly, well we think will result in the slowdown in '17. Now from our standpoint when we do a bottoms up analysis of our opportunities we have more than enough international opportunities that are filling in to replace that but you can't ignore the fact that on a global basis there are a number of markets that look like they could see a decline over the same time period that capacity is getting added so we are cautiously watching to make sure we are not headed into another period of excess capacity. So we’re cognizant that an argument could be made that there is some risk of that.

 

All that sounds a lot different to SUNEs statements just before. FSLRs run at only 77% of capacity now, but still ramp up mothballed lines in Malaysia. I think they really expect some heavy pull in 2015 and 2016 before cooling quite some thereafter. But it looks to me they still have competitive issues.

[thejaq 37]

And another cold winter is coming earlier again so q4 is not that encouraging for their canadian project.

 

I though NOAA was still wavering about an el nino event moderating NA continental climate?

 

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/

[Guest JulyWebb]

The biggest reason I can see with FSLR forecasting less sales revenue for the year is simply they are not in the largest market China. Back in 2009 they signed a 2 GW Memorandum with China in inner- Mongolia that had trouble beginning. Similar to Japan it's a must to have connections or partner with the right Company to work your way in like SPWR and SUNE has done.

FSLR back in 2012 in an interview with GTM Research There is another factor, Burger noted. “Having connections to the right person in the local Chinese government can make the difference between your project sitting in the ground unconnected and your project actually generating revenues.” Another was competition within China.

[Pop2mollys 416]

The biggest reason I can see with FSLR forecasting less sales revenue for the year is simply they are not in the largest market China. Back in 2009 they signed a 2 GW Memorandum with China in inner- Mongolia that had trouble beginning. Similar to Japan it's a must to have connections or partner with the right Company to work your way in like SPWR and SUNE has done.

FSLR back in 2012 in an interview with GTM Research There is another factor, Burger noted. “Having connections to the right person in the local Chinese government can make the difference between your project sitting in the ground unconnected and your project actually generating revenues.” Another was competition within China.

Very good observation JW. You might see some issues when you decide not to participate in the most explosive market in the world.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

India is moving briskly.  FSLR has major market share

 

http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/first-solar-plans-to-set-up-dedicated-power-plants-for-industrial-use-115031000831_1.html

[BillybobTX 2]

FSLR - SPWR yieldco details. late 2016-2017. rotating CEO (?) :

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-questions-first-solar-sunpower-162901063.html

[hellosolar 38]

FSLR - SPWR yieldco details. late 2016-2017. rotating CEO (?) :

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-questions-first-solar-sunpower-162901063.html

late 2016-2017 is for some projects come online. I think Yieldco IPO will be sometime this year. This should be a good news for CSIQ.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

I have been leaning American in my trading last few days.  FSLR-SPWR-SUNE; at least there is no anti-Chinese bias involved. Still own CSIQ, JKS, and JASO and a bit of TSL.

[Guest bassett261]

Hi all, I am fairly new to investing in Solar companies and ran accross a statement that I do not fully understand, it is from Stephen Simko who is an analyst for Morningstar.  He made this statement on December 30, 2014: 

 

"The key reason to be bullish on First Solar is that the

company’s unique thin-film technology decidedly offers

more scope to reduce costs versus the low-cost Chinese

during the next few years. This is especially true when

one considers that polysilicon prices (20% of Trina and

Yingli’s current production costs) today remain at or near

the cash costs of the industry’s marginal producers. Since

about half of of Trina and Yingli 2010-14 cost reductions

were due to falling silicon prices, the fact that this tailwind

has more than run its course is likely to have a major

impact on the dynamics of the solar cost wars in the

coming years."

 

 

Any thoughts on the validity of this?  And what does he mean by "cash costs"

 

 

Thanks,  Greg

[disdaniel 63]

generally speaking "cash costs" do not include depreciation or amortization charges (which are considered non-cash)

 

As for future FSLR costs versus silicon costs...only time will tell.  I have to say that over the last several years it seems that FSLR costs (i.e cost reduction) have followed the silicon players rather than leading them.