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Daqo (DQ)

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Ok.  Just dipped my toe in DQ at 43.45

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OK.  Take a dollar profit and wait for another dip.

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Oh no.  PVinsights and energytrend gave me vibes that poly was bottoming out.  But sunsirs shows a new slump today.  Is demand starting to pick up ahead of the June 30th dealine or is it still too soon to tell?  Whatcha yall think?

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Seems like they should have completed the secondary offering today.  

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20 hours ago, Mark said:

Seems like they should have completed the secondary offering today.  

Yes, and the price is near the offering price.  The question is, can we recapture that earlier momentum that was taking is up over 60?  Or are we going to be capped at 55 for a while?

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I'm thinking 55 for a while... but this is DQ.  What say you?

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Hard to say.  As you say, this is DQ.  Before the placement announcement, the stock had serious momentum, moving from the mid-40s to the low 60s.  Volume was average, though, so it sounds like someone wanted in and did so slowly and steadily over a period of days.  If that buyer hadn't finished building his position yet and is still out there, we could resume our climb fairly shortly.  But if they're done, I think we hover here, between 50-55, until earnings.  If they earn another 3 bucks a share this quarter (and remember they said last quarter this year is already largely booked out, so this is quite possible), I think we go to 70.  If it's only 2 bucks, we stay in the 40-60 range, subject to the vagaries of whatever news drives the markets on any given day.

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On 4/19/2018 at 10:09 AM, Mark said:

I'm thinking 55 for a while... but this is DQ.  What say you?

I saw a pop above $55 this morning.  I hope you sold it with some profit.  Good luck.

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6 hours ago, Klothilde said:

China's polysilicon capacity at the end of 2018 to meet global demand
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180515/897820.shtml

Means fuk Wacker, fuk Hemlock, fuk OCI.  But it also means fuk DQ earnings.

 

We shall see.  Polysilicon is not polysilicon.  DQ makes a point of stating how in-demand their high-quality product is.  LDK is still producing polysilicon, but they are obviously no competition to DQ.

After the LDK debacle, and the not-much-better CSIQ experience, I'm always ready to listen to tales of caution.  But so far, DQ has proven themselves adaptable.  During times of falling ASPs and the historically weak part of the annual cycle, they have maintained both margins and profits.  And while they only give detailed guidance out one quarter ahead, that guidance continues to point to continued profitability.

I've certainly learned not to put all my eggs in one basket in solar, so I will trade DQ with caution.  But for now, I'm a buyer on any dips.

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On 5/18/2018 at 10:13 AM, Klothilde said:

China's polysilicon capacity at the end of 2018 to meet global demand
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180515/897820.shtml

Means fuk Wacker, fuk Hemlock, fuk OCI.  But it also means fuk DQ earnings.

 

Your ignorance and foolishness regarding the poly sector are shocking.

Watch out for 120, daqo heading there in the next few months.

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