[odyd 1,340]

I would watch the sol conference call carefully for updates on polysilicon

Absolutely, essential piece there. I am having hard time to understand this sudden ability in DQ, and somehow lagging state of SOL. How is DAQO managed to bring production so quick down how is existing 6KMT, and additional 6KMT is going to have a "total" production of $12 cost?

The last add-on has to be $8 cost total to make $12. Am I off on numbers here, or Daqo is? Or the 6K thy have is so flexible that their incoming upgrade is exactly the same what they have. Why SOL is disconnected with their 3.5KMT of the old plant? 

[odyd 1,340]

$20 is a top in 2014. Do not quote more than 100 words

[odyd 1,340]

So DQ says current ASP is $19 not $17. Anyone know what ASP are they talking about?

this is the reply to your question, there is range in pricing. Daqo Group buying poly from Daqo can buy it at 19, to have other components made by the third parties, but overall market is down.

http://www.altenergymag.com/news/2013/11/20/pvinsights-polysilicon-prices-keep-the-momentum-of-the-continuous-slight-drop-this-week/31456

[odyd 1,340]

There is a lot of self promotion, misinformation on the market, some big research groups where pounding the fist at the table top about $20 to $25 poly prices this year. People think in limited dimensions, about poly consumption, while market trendsetters reduce poly in watt at greater percentage now then ever, using better tools and significant changes in cell structures. Poly cells are lot higher in efficiency and they use least amount of poly and the purity is not a concern (as much).  

[odyd 1,340]

page 16 of this presentation, shows oversupply poly condition to beginning of the 2015. 

http://www.oci.co.kr/eng/invest/ir_presentation_view.asp?idx=425&pageNo=1

 

Daqo statements are incorrect or self-serving, look at the page 17 of the same. Poly margins,  which include COGS, are above 0%, this means that majors, produce below the spot. Daqo is a small player with local clientele. Sure our companies supplement, but that is it. I will take OCI info over anyone's in China. 

[odyd 1,340]

Wacker is building its plant in the US for 20KMT capacity to run in midd 2015. 

[odyd 1,340]

GCL's comments that they need ASP of $20 to break even

 

This is about profitability not GM. All major companies globally are GM positive in 2013. This does not  mean they are profitable. Daqo comments imply that poly makers in 2013 have negative margins or sell below their spot, meaning dump. Sound very reasonable to say that for the company which is supported by government to erect 6000MT plant. One needs to get a permit these days and offer cost breakdowns to do it, supporting policy publically is not a surprise 

[odyd 1,340]

How can a supplier with 65,000 MT, more than 10x the capacity of DQ, be saying that they need $20/kg just to break even now while for years they've been feeding the street and investors horse manure with their lowest cost poly? Where does the truth lie? 

I think you are talking apples and oranges. As  I said breakeven is the quota referring to profit. They are not producing at full capacity either (GCL). Wacker was "almost" producing at full capacity a month ago, and sold some out of the inventory due to demand. OCI is not even producing at full capacity.  

If they all are, with some of the inventories and new entrants to support a lot more than 40GW. Sine lowering content of poly per watt is an objective of cost reduction by 0.2g makes a 2GW difference.  from 5.2 to 4.8 is almost 4GW of modules on 200KMT. By the Q3 2014, price will be over $20, and in 2015 you should see poly go higher, but for a short time. By 2015 you will have maybe as much as another 50K added. I think companies will cash flows with expand a lot. I can see OCI to go to its original plan to 80KMT as scale reduces cost. Wacker, GCL again TBEA, can double its 12 to 24. It takes a lot less time to build these days as well. 

added: 50GW is running solely on Solarbuzz, those guys made a lot fo errors.  If DG does not work to scale as expected in China, target 12GW is easily a 10GW or less.

[explo 648]

That Wacker plant being built in Tennessee is increible expensive. Depreciation and interest cost alone would be higher than DQ. Why build an expensive plant there, when customers are in China and U.S. declared solar trade war on them? Sounds like massive stupidity.

[explo 648]

Btw, SOL phase I was old and expensive. Phase II new and cheap. Upgrade of phase I and integration of it with phase II gave blended cost $18. Mathematically this means their phase II was at 16.5 $/kg, while the 3.5k phase I was a lot higher. I thought $16.5 was good and that SOL had kind of a lead there. Now comes DQ with the $12 blended target. WTF. I only hope it is based on things SOL can utilize too. Getting into the poly game is not easy. I think ability to build low cost poly plant as well as low cost generation capacity both have a role in China. After the poly plant you need to convert poly to panel and install it at low cost to get the cheap PV plant. Poly plant is the ultimate insurance to build low cost PV plants when more PV is installed than can be supported by operating low cost poly production capacity. GCL model. I'm sure DQ, like GCL and OCi will build generation capacity in future too. I would like to hear SOL talk about building projects. They were one of the first CN11 to get a utility segment with their Qinghai plant connected to grid in 2011, but have not aggressively grown their pipeline since then. I think it is time to do it soon, but they have a lot of other things on their plate with poly, inverters and the residential kits. I hope they discuss strategy at least.