[explo 648]

Nice prodution output/cost improvements they've made. Stock is up 20%. Do you miss it?

 

Also interesting supply/cost analysis conclusion with 2014 forecasted price range of 21-30 $/kg.

[Guest eysteinh]

Nah I do not miss it at current valuations. Its MCAP is quite big compared with income. They still deliver a loss and ev/ebitda is not that great either. (10590 million kr while ebitda is around 720) so ev/ebitda of around 14. 

 

I do however agree with the supply cost price range of 21-30$/kg (but I think the low end 21-22 could be cut as I do not believe demand will fall this low) but I would note this is my expetancy for early 2014 and not end of 2014. I would not call this contriversal as this is the line of most following the sector carefully. 

 

Also I think costs will be up again when silane reactor maintainence is done (it was delayed in q4). But I think the avg for 2014 will be lower than 2013. Perhaps 11$/kg.

 

The most positive I saw was how now the customers are starting to recognize the value of FBR - and thus prime fbr is now on pair with spot simens chunks in ASP.  I think this has something to do with GCL also moving into FBR and more and more customers realizing the savings they can do in productivity with granular shaped polysilicon.

[explo 648]

Agree. Their position is good, but valuation is quite high and threat of north west China Siemens and China FBR by GCL could make them slip to the right in the supply/cost chart.

[Guest roller]

I thought of buying them at 2,60 last week but had no cash... But after this rush I will probably not buy for a while.

[sunnysky 905]

A series of episodes entirely similar to what STP had gone through. The end is near for LDK?

 

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ldk-solar-enters-into-further-forbearance-arrangement-with-noteholders-245364261.html?

[Guest eysteinh]

http://www.photon.info/photon_news_detail_en.photon?id=84231

 

As I have written previously I feel this is one of the more strong research projects because:

A) Hydrogen passivization already have a track record and works. 

B) UNSW has a long and rich history of successful scientific projects in solar and holds several world records

C) This would allow very cheap umg + high efficiency modules

 

I cannot understate the potential of this research for polysilicon demand in 2015 and onwards. If this proves to be a massive hit we will see a large influx of UMG's into the market and umgs is farily cheap and fast to make a production factory for (3-6 months lead time, basically you need a factory smelting mgs) Basically it would then pressure polysilicon prices down. So this is one tech to follow carefully imho.

[Guest roller]

Interesting. I might buy again at downs. Maybe this put more fire on the RECSOL share price which reached all time high yesterday.

[odyd 1,340]

news release here

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunedison-announces-confidential-submission-draft-120000932.html

stock doing around 5.5% today

[odyd 1,340]

link to data

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunedison-reports-fourth-quarter-full-120000151.html

[odyd 1,340]

Stock is climbing up, which is a good sign.