Jump to content


Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation since 09/22/2018 in all areas

  1. 3 points
  2. 2 points
    Well the RMB depreciated by 1.4% over the past week. You would expect to see the average ASP decline within that range. When you subtract out the 1.4% devaluation of the RMB, those drops do not look that bad. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=1W Those numbers look very promising for downstream module producers. The trends are necessary to reach True grid parity with storage in most of the world and especially in China. By my estimates they are making Mono Perc modules for about $0.20 now. That is based on the $0.11 for Chinese Perc cells. That $0.23 China ASP with that manufacturing cost is 15% margins. That foreign average ASP of $0.25 is greater than 25% margins. The U.S. is the higher price range so even that market is likely more profitable than any market around even with the tariff. That U.S. market has surged and has price increases due to a rush to get projects in under the ITC planned reduction in 2020. Looking at those numbers, I only see positives for the next 6 months for the module manufacturers like CSIQ which had improved margins and JKS which is likely to beat their margin guidance.
  3. 2 points
    New CN policy looks to be targeting 2019 installations greater than 2018. Seems to set targets of around 45GW. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963630.shtml According to the most conservative estimate, the installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach more than 45 million kilowatts in 2019, which has exceeded 44.26 million kilowatts in 2018 http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963637.shtml In 2019, the subsidized rated installed capacity will be calculated according to the current expected 3 billion subsidy scale (excluding poverty alleviation). The subsidy intensity of the power subsidy is 0.075 yuan/kWh, and the subsidy scale is about 35.9 GW. (When the power subsidy intensity is 0.05 yuan/kWh, the subsidy scale is about 53.8GW), and then consider 5GW photovoltaic poverty alleviation and 5GW unsubsidized projects, and deduct about 1GW of household occupancy index after 2018 531, 2019 The installed capacity of photovoltaics in the year may reach 45GW, exceeding the installed capacity of 44.3GW in 2018.
  4. 1 point
    When it comes to data points and trends Kloth is generally accurate.
  5. 1 point
    Haha, ouch, that's Pete 2, Klothilde 0. Let's hear it queen of solar... take a deep breath... CSIQ should be the easy one you can say something positive about. No? Just give us one thing about one company. We'll all feel a lot better. I bet Pete will meet you halfway and say all that cash in the FSLR bank account is something to envy. Good stuff, hah.
  6. 1 point
    Pretty interesting. This sort of thing will only continue. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-solar--battery-price-crushes-fossil-fuels-buries-nuclear/#727b67b05971
  7. 1 point
    Here you go, straight from the horse's mouth: "...And for the Q2, the gross margin is at the mid range of 14% to 15%, it’s relatively lower than Q1. And Q1, the gross margin is pretty good and exceeding our guidance. And for the Q2, it's basically because our new capacity is still in the construction stage and will not have contributing to the profitability in second quarter..." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4272691-jinkosolar-holding-co-ltd-jks-ceo-chen-kangping-q1-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single That puts them around break-even before adjustments in Q2 on my books. A forex gain may probably put some icing on the numbers.
  8. 1 point
    Koch brothers now using crows to destroy solar power plants: http://m.solarzoom.com/index.php/article/126902
  9. 1 point
    Total renewable energy capacity passes that of coal in the U.S. FERC projections that Renewables will supply 1/3 of the capacity in a few years. https://solarindustrymag.com/renewables-finally-beat-coal-for-u-s-electrical-generating-capacity For the first time, U.S. electrical generating capacity by renewable energy sources – biomass, geothermal, hydropower, solar and wind – has surpassed that of coal, according to a SUN DAY Campaign analysis of new data from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC).
  10. 1 point
    I think you need to take with a grain of salt their stated costs. Typically costs are quarters end stated for internal production with current quarterly claimed margins. They have a large deferred revenue recognition with respect to their project builds and module acceptance periods of customers. This means that a large portion 30% or more could be from earlier builds as much as 6 months earlier when their costs were much higher than Q4 stated. For example it takes 1 to 2 months to freight ship. It could take another 1 to 2 months to get them installed. The contracts may also have acceptance clauses that require 6 months of running for baseline output. This suggests that a good portion of the quarterly recognized modules for revenues could be deffered from quarters back. Just look at Q1 where there revenue recognized modules were 1423MW and shipped is about 150MW more. As they mentioned they have over 900MW of EPC projects going on. That is the potential of 250MW a quarter in deferred sales until completed and acceptance. As they roll into more and more NTP this will be worse as will some of their major customer contracts like the recent 1.8GW contract. You also need to understand that not only is the deffered sales hitting their cost structure but it also props up the ASP. They are also being selective and selling to high margin markets and have built a direct sales team. These all lead to the higher ASP as well. The ASP was covered in a reply to Colin Rush.
  11. 1 point
    Approaching 50% return less than 4 months into the year. Nothing special in solar world, but this time my capital preservation strategy is better. After a long time of focus on asset allocation optimization and verification of Alpha and Beta return attribution I've recently focused more on return contribution analysis in order to verify that the allocation does not contain any poor contributors due to flawed strategy or tactic. I think that this continuous qualification of the strategy and tactic is key to long-term performance success. --- Goal Financial independence by 2030 Objective 15% annual return @ 25% volatility Strategy Rebalance optimal allocation Tactic Buy the dips and hold the rips Allocation Return
  12. 1 point
    I had been telling you that the costs being reported in ER's was not where current costs to manufacture were being headed. Now you have hard evidence that the cost to manufacture from the low wafer, cell and lamination price drops has pushed the cost down to $0.20. That cost point can easily be profitable at $0.25/watt that high efficiency poly is averaging according to PV insights. That $0.20 basically means they sell for 20% margins at what is the costs FSLR to produce their S6 modules at today. Their S4 module costs are even higher than your estimate $0.24-$0.25 FSLR has become a 1 trick pony selling into a protected subsidized market in which the subsidy will go away and competition will increase. I do not invest in companies that rely on a single market for 80%+ of their revenues. That never ends well.
  13. 1 point
    Looks like H2/2019 in China will be explosive: with about 15 GW PV installations per quarter... https://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinas-new-subsidy-programme-could-support-up-to-50gw-says-official
  14. 1 point
    Only what the web shows. The web suggests they are a 200MW facility that assembles the modules in San AntonioTexas. They use Asian sourced components. They shut down their 100MW cell late 2016 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2016/10/03/mission-solar-energy-to-close-texas-cell-lines-lay-off-87-employees_100026343/ There warranty is 4 to 12 years on mechanical assemby and 25 yrs on power degredataion http://www.missionsolar.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/MSE-PV-Module-Limited-Warranty-2018-2019-4BB-5BB.pdf They wholesale for around $0.70/watt https://www.bluepacificsolar.com/best-solar-panels.html It looks like they are a subsidiary of OCI lmtd, those same Multi National guys who make Poly in Seoul Korea. http://www.missionsolar.com/about-us/ They started up around 2014 and have panels installed in the Alamo1 power plant located in San Antonio area. https://newsroom.cpsenergy.com/made-san-antonio-solar-panels/ Hope this helps.
  15. 1 point
    I've lost count of how many times they have lied to investors. I buy their audited financial statements but not much more than that. That's just me.
  16. 1 point
    PEGI has been one of my better buys - steady climb and paying great divi
  17. 1 point
    You are reading the tea leaves wrong. They do not need a $2 spread in 2020. They needed a $2 spread at past 6KMT production levels. For 2019 they are guiding 37-40KMT. They will earn $1 a share on a $1.50 spread before subsidy payments and taxes. In October Nov they will have the Phase 4A starting trial production. They should be ramped 70KMT come January 2020(9 months for now). That 70KMT will produce around 80-90KMT of poly. At a $1 spread that is $80-$90M gross. SGNA is $8.2M today and might go to say $12M. Interest is $2M a Q. That is $56M expenses when 70KMT is ramped. They will earn $24-$34M before taxes adjustments and subsidies in 2020 based on a $1 spread. That is $2-$3 in earnings. For every $0.025 above that $1 spread they will gross an added $20M that goes straight to the bottom line. A $0.50 spread could add $3-$4 a share potential upside to $5-$7 a share in 2020. That and think what happens to FSLR with Poly cost and the rest of the CN costs dropping 30-40% over the next 2-4 years. That is what you should be worried about.
  18. 1 point
    energytrend says demand is weak: https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20190307-13440.html
  19. 1 point
    I think they have positive earnings of a couple pennies before 1 timers I expect a $1.85 spread on cost to ASP. I am using a lower cost and volume than yours Gross comes in around $12.6M My Opex and Int are slightly higher at $12.2M Q4 though is not relevant. 2019 costs and guidance are. I expect Q1 to be the low for the year in earnings in the low double digits and increasing from there. I expect Q1 costs to be around $7.50 I expect costs to decline slightly from there with production ramps and optimization The second half of 2019 should be stronger as that is were the forecast in volume increases over the first half. This should lead to a slight rise in ASP int he second half even with the new capacity. From this I reasonably expect a full year profit of North of $2 a share. Disclosure: I do not own DQ.
  20. 1 point
    Q1 sales are generally announced near the end of Q1 or a couple weeks into Q2. They also are relying more and more on EPC contracted work from projects they did sell in the past before completed.
  21. 1 point
    I think he's referring to 2018 and their FY GM of 17.5% vs. original guidance of 22-23% in Dec. 2017. I don't know all the reasons, they had some extra costs in Q4 to finish the projects on time, but that's only one of several reasons probably. On a positive note revenue came very close to the lower end of guidance, EPS within the guidance range, and net cash above guidance. However I think pointing out their GM miss is like searching for a hair in the soup, as they say in my country. Good thing the CNs don't give you GM guidance because then you would find the whole wig in the soup.
  22. 1 point
    You are clueless. Went long csiq yesterday, minimum 6 month target 40s
  23. 1 point
    Chinese city wants 700 MW of new solar within two years: The announcement from the city authorities comes in the wake of the central government’s call for local authorities, electricity companies and big lenders to remove roadblocks to what it designated ‘grid-parity’ PV projects, by which it meant installations which did not benefit from central subsidies but which could be encouraged by local incentives. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/14/chinese-city-wants-700-mw-of-new-solar-within-two-years/
  24. 1 point
    I expect them to meet or slightly beat, though I haven't looked at the numbers in detail. They are basically sold out for the next two years at fixed prices, so imo that leaves little room for EPS surprises either up or down. Two positives are that prices in the U.S. are holding up well (despite the ominous 2.5GW quota for foreign cells) and that S6 certification is progressing as planned: https://www.pvinfolink.com/post.php?sn=2 https://investor.firstsolar.com/news/press-release-details/2018/First-Solar-Series-6-Completes-CSA-C450-Test-Protocol-at-CSA-Groups-PV-Test-Lab-CFV-Solar/default.aspx Imho FSLR will be quite boring over the next several quarters because they are transparent and predictable. If you prefer a roller coaster with 50% swings then I'd suggest to stick with the CNs.
  25. 1 point
    I can see the past year has turned you into a more bitter fellow, which is unsurprising given the poor performance of most solar stocks but this needen't be the case in the coming years. I'm very grateful to this forum, specially Robert and H20 since I learnt a lot from both of these members and had large profits with Daqo in 2018. I just wanted to share my view that I believe it is probable that the solar sector is making another turn to the upside and long term bets could produce ample profits in the future. Solar still only ptovides 0.6% of the world's energy consumption, the growth potential is huge and CSIQ is in a great possition to capitalize it.
  26. 1 point
    I would be concerned about JKS. They are the guarantor of the debt they spun off with the New Energy spinoff. A very large portion of those projects were not in the catalog and not getting the FIT payments.
  27. 1 point
    If your math is correct, they'd be smarter to just shut down their business right now.
  28. 1 point
    GP $620-$700M. Opex $430M+/- Interest $100M+/- ASP $0.27 CPW $0.235(13%GM) on 8GW shipments for revenues The wild card are project sales revenue , power revenues and EPC revenues. Project 130MW Japan @ 3.30 @ 30%GM 700MW @ 1.2/W @ 12.5%GM Power Revenues/Dividend Incomes $40M @ 50%GM EPC $150M @ 15%GM
  29. 1 point
    China unveils an ambitious new push on grid parity solar https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/10/china-unveils-an-ambitious-new-push-on-grid-parity-solar/
  30. 1 point
    PVInfolink starting the year showing a breakdown of regional module prices. U.S. module prices very robust, 32 cts for multi and 38 for mono PERC. Kudos to FSLR. https://en.pvinfolink.com/post.php?sn=2
  31. 1 point
    Happy new year to y'all 😊 From this article I'm getting a vibe that U.S. utility demand will be humongous over the next years. That bodes well for FSLR: https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/01/01/solar-tsunami/
  32. 1 point
    Good god they have a PT of 58 USD and my glass ball has them in the single digits. I should revisit my assumptions when I have some time. Can I be so off?
  33. 1 point
    Me thinks it's decent. Almost $4 in the high end if you take out start-up and ramp. I thank thee o father for it could have been worse.
  34. 1 point
    Except that Chinese solars haven't traded at valuations equivalent to their US peers in what? Over a decade? Why should that change now? Don't get me wrong--I still have shares from the mid-30s, so I'd love to see these stock prices. But it will have to be from earnings, not an increase in P/E. And that's still 2+ years away.
  35. 1 point
    I suspect they (Qu/Lion Point/Luminous and maybe Morgan Stanley) wanted to 1) get the bad news out of the way so it didn't overshadow the good quarter and 2) shake out any weak hands and traders, so that a stronger, more dedicated shareholder base was in place so they could more easily run this up to $17+. Don't get me wrong, I hated that whole thing at the time, but I didn't sell any and it worked out well for me. I'll be trading around a core position for the next year at least and am hoping these hedge funds and MS and Qu are greedy pigs who are envious that FSLR is trading at $44 and want to work this thing up far and fast.
  36. 1 point
    So Paul Costner of JP Morgan goes Neutral to Underweight on October 22nd and drops target to 15. Apparently he just couldn't wait until earnings today, now he's going back to Neutral and $17 target. I have some choice words for that clown.
  37. 1 point
    Now we just need them to work this stinkin' price up. I was happy to see the new big fish in the pond (Luminus) and seeing that actually kept me from selling more yesterday. I believe they're averaged in somewhere around 14.04 or something.
  38. 1 point
    Well here's some food for thought (or indigestion): PVInfolink mono-grade polysilicon price averages (per kg): Q2 (April+May): RMB 130.7 ($17.7) Q3: RMB 93.4 ($11.8) Q4TD: RMB 85.2 ($10.6) Currently: RMB 83 ($10.3) Interestingly DQ's Q2 ASP of $16.2 came in below the PVInfolink mono-grade average for April+May. I'm comparing prices for those two months because DQ said they didn't sell anything in June because of the 531 price Armageddon. The above has me thinking that PVInfolink may possibly be a good proxy for DQ's ASP. If so, Q3 would result in $0-$0.5 EPS (without the write-off) and Q4 would be around $0. We'll see tomorrow. Q1 and beyond will be horrible imho because you have demand softening and a chit load of new poly being dumped left and right. I see the ASP-cost spread narrowing significantly from the approx. $2 we have currently.
  39. 1 point
    Mark, Relax. Nothing has changed in the big picture. Things are challenging right now. But grid parity everywhere is coming, and with it the age of solar. The China news is added juice. Things will look very different two years from now. The big companies aren't going under. Until then, use the volatility for swing trades if you have the capital and stomach for it. Otherwise, concentrate on the future and ignore the intermediate swings. Qu may come back with a new offer, or maybe he won't. I actually hope he doesn't, as I think CSIQ will be worth more than $18 by 2020. And the longer he puts off any new offer, the more obvious that should become to the Board. But whatever he comes back with, it's got to be more than the current price. So I don't see any benefit in selling right now. Solarpete
  40. 1 point
    The PR is bad. http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/update-going-private-proposal They declined the offer because they do not think he has financing to go through with it because of market changes? Nothing about the offer price being rejected due to being insufficient? With this PR, the bottom support has been removed. I would expect significant downward pressure.
  41. 1 point
    Sunpower Q3 numbers out you guys. They are seeing order postponements due to the 531 thing. Just like FSLR but way more pronounced I guess. They also admit they have a hard time competing against mono-PERC in the U.S. utility market, which is a good thing for FSLR. Somebody suggested recently SPWR could eat some of FSLR's cake in the U.S. but it seems they don't have teeth for that. They did get a 201 exception for their 1.2GW of IBC capacity, however that product is apparently so expensive that they cannot compete against mono-PERC with tariff. "In terms of Section 201, it's a tale of two markets. In the DG market which the company is restructured and focused on mostly, we actually see pricing in Q3 that is in line with Q2; whereas, if you're focused on the power plant market, which has different attributes, the pricing has been very difficult, and most of mono-PERC is going into the power plant market, and therefore, is facing a very difficult market." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4216260-sunpower-spwr-q3-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
  42. 1 point
    Mark, Don't worry pretty soon solar manufacturers will be making and giving their modules for free. This is going to happen in 2021. So yes ... while us investors lose our hard earned money or so called investments ... the world will get free solar energy and a cleaner environment. Who cares if FSLR is showing more and more signs of being an industry leader and one of few companies best positioned for this consolidation phase. JMP is right, there will always be some newcomer out of China (presumably) with a bankroll who will just buy the latest manufacturing technology and then sell at a lower cost than everyone else. They too will eventually go bankrupt like all solar manufacturers before them. So yes ... what multiple do you assign these companies when they are all going to go bankrupt anyway.
  43. 1 point
    I don't see anything to worry about from a fundamentals point of view though I also got a sense in the con call that Widmar was beating around the bush at times. Imo the stock currrently trades cheap vis a vis a rough sum of parts valuation: FSLR value = 1) net cash + 2) project assets on balance sheet + 3) value of contracted pipeline + 4) value of technology beyond 2020 1) net cash is $2.3B 2) project assets are $0.8B 3) 8.8GW of modules sold at $0.35 with 35%GM give $1.1B in GP. 2.5GW of systems at $1.30 and 25% give $0.8B in GP Total GP is $1.9B. Deduct ~$0.6B in OPEX for 2019/2020 for a profit contribution of $1.3B 1)+2)+3) = $4.4B or $42/share. This is the floor set by hard assets and contracts while valuing the technology at 0 (worthless crap as some like to view it). I consider 4) the most valuable part but we don't need it to set the floor.
  44. 1 point
    Okey let me tweak this in favor of FSLR. I don't even understand your math. 3GW at $0.33 and 40% yields $264M ? I get $396M. But let's push this further. Average ASP for 2019 according to the article is 35 cts. At costs of 20 cts the gross goes up to $450M. OPEX in 2018 is $400M because it includes $120M in start-up expenses. Next year start-up costs are set to drop to $25M and OPEX to $300. Means $150M in juice already. S4 is pushed into the U.S. as well with the advantage that it is suitable for the commercial and industrial segment as well. Produced at 27 cts and sold for 35 cts gives me $160M in gross. Total gross thus $610M and EBT thus $310. Expect further juice from the contracted project pipeline that has a GM north of 50%. I hope so. Whaaat? I think the 33 cts ASP is at 0%GM for the CNs. No way they can have a profit on this. Let's look into it please. Yes, fully agreed, and I think now it's the Chinese's turn to start giving. Enough of companies selling at cash cost and being kept alive by politicians. Let Junko start giving. $0M in gross profit and $400M in OPEX and NI looks adequate to start giving imho.
  45. 1 point
    Thanks for sharing. Imho this is the best analysis so far supporting the thesis of a polysilicon re-adjustment to lower price levels. The article points to a price level of $8.5/kg supporting a run-rate of 110GW of installation at the end of 2019. The supply stack suggests this price can easily fall to near $7/kg for a slightly lower demand of around 100GW. No point in regurgitating the implications for DQ EPS and PPS based on the above, you guys know my opinion.
  46. 1 point
    Chinese solars coming in with Q3 express reports. No surprise earnings are down and impacted by the new deal https://www.pv-tech.org/news/impact-from-chinas-solar-deployment-cuts-start-hitting-companies-q3-financi
  47. 1 point
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-shares-hanwha-q-cells-155500821.html HQCL is being bought out. Big jump today.
  48. 1 point
    Dr. Qu updating on PV manufacturing cost: "I also gave a cost outlook in 2016. I was pretty accurate through Q4 2017. I was also accurate to predict that the manufacturing cost will go down to 25 cents per Watt, but I did not predict the timing right. Module manufacturing cost is reaching 25 cents per Watt in Q4 2018 for leading manufacturers, literally as we speak, rather than in Q4 of 2020 as I originally predicted." https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/breakaway-hat-trick-solar-dr-shawn-qu/
  49. 1 point
    Eh, I'm thinking maybe its about the possible corruption in China and how it may affect the Top Runner program. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/09/28/an-investigation-at-chinas-national-energy-agency-might-delay-pv-programs/
  50. 1 point
    Those fat tarfifs are not as much an impact with the Costs basis dropping like a rock. 30% on a cost basis of $0.35 was significant pushing the average ASP to around $0.45-$0.48. Now with production costs in the $0.23 and could be as low as $0.21 the dynamics change. The average ASP with freight Tarrif and Opex + profit is now at around $0.36-$0.37. That is soon to drop by a penny or 2 as the tariff gets reduced by 5% in a few months. That places the new ASP at $0.345+/- with tariffs, freight, opex and profits. Those ASP could be lower as there is 2.5GW of tariff free modules. Those modules carry another 6-8 cents in gross . That means that they can basically cut a penny or 2 off the ASP and still have decent profits from the U.S when all are blended. Slap the $0.034 on FSLRs $0.27 S4 cost basis and you are profitless and operating at a loss with their near $100M a quarter in Opex. That $0.34-$0.36 ASP is significantly down from the $0.50 you were expecting before the ASP collapse. There is good concern which Godron Johnson mentioned that FSLR might be looking at cancellations of contracts due to the ASP declines. FSLR a while back indicated 2 or 3 cent premium on a module would not kill a sale,. They are now looking at a $0.10-$0.15 swing certainly that certainly could. And we have not even discussed the ability of FSLR to compete outside of the U.S. markets where there are no tariff impacts and the ASP is sub $0.30.

  • Create New...