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  1. 3 points
    I agree with this, for two reasons. First, as noted previously, the Chinese have already made the decision to massively support their native solar industry. Think of all the money they've sunk into subsidies, loans, etc. in the past, for decades now, to bring their solar industry to this point. Now that the industry is on the brink of sustainability without further subsidies, they're going to allow it to tank because of a few billion dollars missing in a particular government fund? I find that completely unrealistic. Second, and perhaps more important, beyond economics solar now supports the stability of the Chinese government. China HAS to get a handle on its air pollution problem. Meanwhile, they also HAVE to produce more electricity, as they continue to lift millions of their people out of poverty and into at least the lower middle class. Those folks want electricity, and all of their city dwellers want, if not perfectly clean air, then at least air you don't need a mask to breathe. Renewables, including solar, are not a luxury for the Chinese. Let all your cities have air like Beijing has on bad days, and let those bad days become the norm, and you're going to have massive public unrest. That's anathema to the Chinese government. As we all know, there are no guarantees when investing in Chinese solars. But I think fears the internal Chinese solar market will completely collapse, tanking their entire industry, are simply not justified.
  2. 3 points
    It looks correct if debt is transferred as part of the sale. That looks to be a sale that would generate 12.6% gross margins with the sale price of $1.53/watt. They financed the project with $97M debt per the PR from April 25. If you run some numbers of debt, 20% their own equity, capitalized interest for 5 months at 3% for ST bridge loans, and 15% premium on the cost to build, you would find sale at $140.8M. The cost to build (debt+20%equity+capitalizedDebt) = $122.4M. The $42M received would be their equity investment of $24.25M + Gross profit of $17.75M. That gross profit is $17.75M/$140.8M or 12.6% margins. Coincidentally the $42M is right in the range of the 30% ITC credit the buyer would get for the total purchase price of $140.8M. If the equity they invested was 25%, then the margins look to be 6.5% with gross at $9.7M
  3. 2 points
    "China will stay flat in 2018 at best" (Klothilde, 6 hours ago) --- "Get ready for the cliff" (Klothilde, May 11, 2017) "the approaching China cliff" (Klothilde, May 31, 2017) "we have a China demand cliff coming up in a matter of weeks" (Klothilde, Jun 1, 2017) "I really HATE repeating myself, therefore PLEASE put your glasses on when you read. Here AGAIN": The China Cliff is coooooming "The China cliff is here" (Klothilde, Jun 21, 2017) "Looks like China cliff to me" "you can smell China cliff" (Klothilde, Jun 28, 2017) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elephant Porcelain shop https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blindness_(novel) "Polysilicon price another day up" (W20, Jun 9, 2017) "Polysilicon +8% I do not understand Why this quantitatively beautiful Enterprise is loveless. DQ neither buy Polysilicon nor sell Oil. DQ sell Polysilicon. One day maybe the market will understand these simple statements or maybe not, I don't know" (W20, Aug 2, 2017)
  4. 2 points
    Watch out for Hemlock... If there will be a deal, in the next 10 days, with 201 section rejection in exchange for Chinese poly market access for Hemlock and other US poly producers, then DQ may have a problem... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/01/12/hemlock-calls-on-trump-to-restore-access-to-the-chinese-polysilicon-market/
  5. 2 points
    Your hate and resentment are well known What can we do to heal your soul ? With an obsidian knife tear Dydo's heart and offer it to Wotan/Odin on the Altar of Sacrifices ? Sell our daughters to a television producer ? Burn us like a bonzo monk ? What can we do to heal your soul ? http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html
  6. 2 points
    The stock would easily be trading in the mid 20s if he had communicated the virtues of project monetization appropriately. However he decided for the opposite in order to ensure himself a juicy bargain. This is the worse conflict of interest you can have at the helm of a company. This should be outlawed under any circumstance.
  7. 2 points
    Yes, however this is very disrespectful of shareholders. Many people have hung in there, waiting for a long time for them to sell off projects so equity can go up and the share price as well. Now that the company is almost there he cannot just pull the plug. It's like a breach of trust. You know what I'm saying?
  8. 2 points
    Since M. Potter (former CFO) left the company, Canadian's presentation became a joke... with hardly understandable mumbling presentations...
  9. 2 points
    Hey y'all now just take a deep breath & realize that none of us are really in control of the situation... just doing our best to figure it out. So we are all on the same side. The not inside side. For what it is worth I will say I appreciate both Klothilde & Roberts posts. & I think the quality and detail of discussion since Klothilde started posting has improved. I've really enjoyed her being around and I think the result has yielded some great discussions. I think she is one of the few of us who can really pull out some numbers and does a good job with analysis. I think that you must agree here Robert because I've also noticed a willingness for you to engage and discuss based on her posts. You are both quite good at what you do. Seems to me that Robert has been focused on balance sheet while Klothilde has been warning that might not be enough... the future income statements may not be so great. Robert likes CSIQ while Klothilde sides with FSLR. In truth we need a world where both thrive. Global warming is of course no small challenge. It's likely that every form of intelligent life on nearly every planet out there must deal with this problem. And because Earth has zero contact with any other intelligent life, speaks highly about how big of a challenge this will be. Both CSIQ & FSLR hopefully will do well. Demand certainly should be plentiful. Companies just need to survive to the point when some politicians realize that solar power is a very important source of energy that needs to be rolled out ASAP. Now... to take your minds off this & onto something much more entertaining. Have a look at this! https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/22/us/politics/joe-barton-explicit-photo-twitter.html A long time vocal global warming denialist has been caught masturbating for his new girlfriend! That's what I call funny. Hopefully the chair underneath him is pulled. What a loser. Cheers & happy thanksgiving in case anyone here is celebrating that. Am I the only American around here? It's ok I'm in Hungary actually and just had pizza & beer.
  10. 2 points
    You know they have a lot of work in Japan. You always chuckle about them dropping MW here and there, and still, they have a lot of work. This time you were sarcastic about if they are in the auction. Now you are if there is enough won. You worry too much. You should not invest on in hope, but you have not invested at all, and all you do is what troll would do. Is this an investment advice? Do you know what their plans are? You begin to act like you used to work. Remeber when you did not contribute to anything? Show me that I did not hope for you to change in vain.
  11. 2 points
    This is taken from the USITC recommendations, it is a major win for CSIQ if Trump approves this in this shape. First I thought it was important to note how they look at cells put in modules in Canada, second the recommendation As Canadian respondents explain, a headquarters ruling by U.S. Customs and Border Protection confirms that, under NAFTA rules of origin and marking rules, U.S. imports of finished CSPV modules assembled in a NAFTA country, even from CSPV cells originating in non‐NAFTA countries, qualify as products from the NAFTA country, where the goods originate under General Note 12(b) and are accompanied by a signed and completed NAFTA certificate of origin, because the final assembly operations in the NAFTA country involve more than minor processing and require substantial investment and value added. Although petitioners did not overtly adopt respondents’ approach to country of origin for U.S. imports of modules assembled in NAFTA countries, they did not identify any flaws in the legal reasoning underpinning Canadian respondents’ arguments.85 We find the Canadian respondents’ arguments persuasive, and accordingly the import data we primarily relied on for our analysis uses the country‐of‐origin methodology that they proposed (i.e., the NAFTA rules of origin for imports from Canada and Mexico and for imports from all other countries, the country where the cell was manufactured, as adjusted to reflect cells assembled into modules in a NAFTA country) 1. Finding With Respect to Imports from Canada We find that imports of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells (whether or not partially or fully assembled into other products) from Canada do not account for a substantial share of total imports and do not contribute importantly to the serious injury caused by the imports. Accordingly, we make a negative finding with respect to imports from Canada. According to adjusted importer questionnaire data, the industry in Canada was not among the top five suppliers of imports of CSPV products during the three most recent years.388 Under the second prong for imports from NAFTA countries, the statutory standard is whether the imports from the NAFTA country “contribute importantly to the serious injury … caused by imports,” which is a lower standard than whether global imports are a substantial cause of serious injury.398 Despite the larger growth rate for imports from Canada relative to global imports, given the relatively small share of total imports accounted for by imports from Canada, the relatively small change in the Canadian industry’s import share over the POI, and the more modest level and change in the level of imports from Canada, particularly relative to total imports from all sources over the POI, we find that imports from Canada considered individually do not contribute importantly to the serious injury caused by imports.399 Given that imports from Canada started the POI at a smaller baseline than other foreign suppliers and increased overall during the POI at a rate that exceeded the growth rate for global imports, we recognize that if the President were to determine to exclude imports from Canada from any safeguard measure, unrestrained imports from Canada might increase to harmful levels.400 In those circumstances, however, if any such increase were to occur, the domestic industry would have other options to consider, including the import‐surge mechanism of 19 U.S.C. § 3372(c) and the antidumping and/or countervailing duty laws (19 U.S.C. § 1671, 19 U.S.C. § 1673).
  12. 2 points
    Yes , as I stated Daqo has had a very favorable pricing environment for now. The question I posed was the length of that premium. The market dynamics in this industry turn very fast. What was boom becomes bust, what was bust becomes boom. You already pointed out 3 price points of near term earnings strength from $6 to $12 in EPS. All are very good compared to peers. That high end if sustained suggests a much higher price, the low end suggests that they are reasonably priced. As markets are forward looking I would be concerned after 2018 as that low end could become the high end range and the lower end range would be down to $3 or less. My reasoning is if China is looking at a 3 year 40% price decline for projects to achieve a 3 RMB solar price unsubsidized, then Poly certainly must fall as must the entire chain. You can run some analysis on $0.90 project prices today with high efficiency mono Perc at $0.40. If pricing falls to meet the targets of China, and a similar ratio is used of module to project costs, then that module price falls to $0.24 for high efficiency mono with production costs near $0.21. Multi would be within 1 or 2 cents. Clearly Poly at 25% of a module production cost would have poly below $14 and somewhere between $9-$13. In addition at some point the markets will adjust and you will not have 1 market sector getting 7-12% margins and profitless when another is pulling down 75-100% GM. My guess is the Government will step in once the cash flow is paying down the debt as the Si market has matured in China and is not in risk of destruction from foreign competition. That is why they put in the Poly Tariffs in the first place.
  13. 2 points
    We did not get into poly, we talked about the projects. He was very interested in my interpretation and offer support with what he heard. He said that KEPCO is high single digit and Shenzhen is a low double-digit, but CFO said some revenue have no margin, which is basically what I am trying to say. I explained to him that KEPCO bought all tax equity projects, and Shenzhen has one, Mustang. He thinks Q1 will be bigger ( I assumed GM) but he thought even on revenues. He said the market does not understand the potential of those sales and thought what my article shown was the best analysis he seen from anyone. I explained that Roth and Oppenheimer have high prices, but he chuckled commenting they did not do a lot of work on those. We talked for the first time ever today.
  14. 2 points
    I disagree with GM on plants, opex, and GM in modules. Again despite the description that Opex stays flat when plants are sold, this is being increased in multiples. GM 12% in Q4 and flat Opex company can make more. I think your adverse approach to everything, seeing failure in every other company by quoting things in isolation to prove your point, have me say that glass is half empty in your statements. You quoted an article, which has nothing to do with the CSIQ doing business but someone in India winning bids. 2/3 of those will never get built. Half of them had counted to build with modules worth $0.25 per watt, and they complain that Chinese neg the module supply. CSIQ won Dubai supply and it was the one of the lowest. Their GM survived. When plants sell at $0.80 watt, CSIQ will be there to make money on it. When that time comes.
  15. 2 points
    Sold half my FSLR last night. Doh! Sold the rest around 57. Now that everyone here has sold their FSLR, it'll go to 100, right?
  16. 2 points
    At this point, CSIQ needs to make the progress in selling plants and collecting money. Every time they do that they are a better company, and should be a better stock. Again Trumps out there do not see far down the road. They pay for FSLR 7% in the aftermarket but may sell off tomorrow, because of revenue and EPS for Q4. I like FSLR to get high valuation because I think it will in comparison show value of CSIQ. In fact, I am for completely different PE all together. FSLR will have PE of 19.61 this year, and I am hoping for 9.82 if CSIQ is able to do numbers form my article. So if for any reason CSIQ gets higher PE and numbers support we will have good days. It is frustrating and I hope that balance sheet will be more convincing in time.
  17. 2 points
    Sold PEGI on the up tick bought even more CSIQ below $16. ONE DAY the market will get it or not.
  18. 2 points
    Canadian Solar Inc. priced its initial public offering of 177,800 investment units at 100,000 Japanese yen per unit, before underwriting discounts. Of the units included in the offering, Canadian Solar will purchase 25,395 units as the designated purchaser. The units of CSIF are expected to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on October 30, 2017. CSIF plans to use the net proceeds from the offering and anticipated borrowings of JPY 17.7 billion (approximately $156 million) to consummate the acquisition of its initial portfolio. Subsidiaries of Canadian Solar in Japan are contributing 13 solar power projects with a total installed capacity of 72.7 MWp to CSIF as its initial portfolio. Net sale proceeds to Canadian Solar from these assets amounted to JPY 30.4 billion (approximately $270 million). Canadian Solar expects to use a part of the net sale proceeds to immediately reduce its overall debt leverage by JPY 18.7 billion (approximately $165 million) and to further strengthen its liquidity.
  19. 2 points
    It sounds that CSIF will be selling units for 100,000 yen or $877. This now translates to about $163M IPO. Elsewhere is has been said CSIF raised $17.8B yen or $156M, not sure if this after or before the fees. Also due to exchange volumes differ.
  20. 2 points
    It is going to be interesting how the market is going to react to all those CSIQ plant sales. It will be more important for investors to see how balance sheet looks like after major sale happens. I think most know those sales are coming, including sale side. I guess they have a choice as always to work the stock and hope it will not go up before they can sell it. I think at the end of the day when all is said and done, CSIQ will increase its equity via retained earnings which should double in my view (over $600M), to about $1.2 to $1.3B for equity. will get about $800M in cash, to bring the same amount $1.3B in total not counting restricted, with it $1.7B. All by lowering the debt by $1.3B. Those are big changes. Having stock stay in the same place seems unlikely and should drive the share price up. I think since most know it, only confused frustrated or those who need cash sell now.
  21. 2 points
    Greetings, I have some experience in technical analysis that I will be happy to share on this thread and hopefully it will be useful for members as well as for my own trading. In 1931, Richard Wyckoff published his seminal work on stock trading and investing The Richard D Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique. In it ,he describes a system of analysis based on the interpretation of Price and Volume, that enables a trader or investor to make accurate and consistent forecasts about the most probable action of any particular asset. I open this thread in order to share my analysis of the solar sector, based on the aforementioned method, as well as of particular stocks that I deem suitable for investing or trading. I have been following the sector for a couple of years, since I am firm believer that climate change is the biggest challenge facing our species. In this respect, solar will be an integral part of the solution and I see it as an industry that will grow enormously for decades. From a technical perspective, I see the sector as having completed a bottom in June 2016 and I believe we are witnessing the initial stages of the bull market. In the following charts I will be sharing my reasons for holdings this view. On the longer term monthly chart, I see two significant developments. Firstly, buyers came in to support price above the 2011 lows (1-blue line); Following Trump's election a final round of selling ensued, most probably elicited by the administration's anti renewable energy stance. However, scarcely a month later, around mid December, buyers stepped in and begun accumulating these stocks. This brings us to the second relevant development (point 2); Buyers kept bidding up prices with enough conviction to break the downtrend that had been in place since the market peaked at around 50. This was the first sign of selling exhaustion and a sign that a potential bottom could be in place. The weekly chart shows a more detailed picture of the most recent action. In it I have noted point “A”, which shows how after the abovementioned downtrend break, there was another wave of selling that was met by further buying, supporting price above the December lows and resulting in a successful test (A). From here onwards, price has made a series of Higher Lows, and we now have an uptrend that remains intact. The most recent developments show buyers stepping in at the black horizontal support line at “C”, and eagerly attempting to accelerate the pace of the advance, as shown by the steeper angle of line “D”. In order for this new trendline to be confirmed, buyers must be willing to raise the bid above the most recent highs. It is worth noting how even with the constant flow of bad news coming from the White House (Pulling out of the Paris Agreement, the removal of tax credits, the potential for import tariffs) price is continuing its merry way northward. That is to say, “someone” or some group of people are making use of the bad news to load up on the sector. We could debate and hypothesise over who is buying up and why, what kind of privileged information they might have; maybe they know that this tariff talk and Paris Agreement withdrawal is nothing more than a negotiation tactic, they could be certain that the clown will be impeached, or perhaps there is a growing realization that solar will play a pivotal role in providing energy for the world, regardless of what the USs position might be. Fortunately for the price action reader, one needn't waste much time conjecturing, since the aggregate action and beliefs of all players are shown on the charts. For now, and unless price breaks the current stride; the charts show a buoyant market, with few sellers and eager buyers that are happy to keep bidding up prices.
  22. 2 points
    SunPower going after First Solar. https://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/sunpower-running-scared-of-first-solar
  23. 2 points
    This is getting a bit more exciting, I found this piece on it. Apparently, the acquisition is $800M, which would translate to $2.03 per watt dc and $2.64/watt ac. If the number was accurate, the GM and equity look like 29% or 232/800. This would support the version of 20% project equity and 9% GM. If Koreans are paying the same for residual 309MW/1.3=237.7MW ac that is an additional $628M. In total selling that 707MW would bring $1.430B revenue, a cash increase of $414M, and GM of $128M. That alone is a $1 per share at 50% net margin. I would say that net margin is probably likely 80%, so by the looks of it, CSIQ will earn $100M and $1.65 per share. Not bad when considering that IP is coming in and 25% GM could bring $65M and net income this for $52M, that is about the $0.85. We still have 150MW in UK, and collection of all other sales, If this is coming Q4, the revenue could hit $2B. http://westdollar.com/sbdm/finance/news/1354,20171013784710780.html
  24. 2 points
    The question is, compared to what? Other types of electricity generation can be damaged by severe weather, too. And rebuilding a solar or wind farm (using the insurance proceeds disdaniel mentions) is not rocket science. Putting up a solar panel or wind turbine, even a large number of them, is considerably less complicated than building a coal, oil, or gas plant. And we won't even talk about nuclear....
  25. 2 points
    I'm only trading/investing in CSIQ and FSLR for the next 6-8 months. Not even going to try and trade JKS, simply because i don't want to get caught holding the bag. I already own shares at 30 there, so that's more than enough. It's all CSIQ and FSLR for me and I'm going in heavier on CSIQ for the reasons you've stated. It seems like a no-brainer. Well, maybe Travis won't get it.
  26. 2 points
    I was business traveling this week and got late last night back. I read the questions here and I think there is a lot of doubt about FSLR and what it means to have tariffs in the US for Canadian. First, I agree with some people saying that FSLR gained huge on the idea of Suniva and when it materialized most sold. While trader in me curses not to sell at $53 or whatever it was, the investor does not mind the drop. I believe that tariffs will improve FSLR dynamic offer dominant role in the US and allow to bring a lot more capacity to the US market. I explained many times why CSIQ is a better choice, now I feel one needs to have each. Even technology landscape requires diversity. JKS offers the same thing what CSIQ does. I see no financial, operational or technological advantage of JKS over CSIQ. However, CSIQ has profit making dev business which few people credit. JREIT should offer a good entry point for us to understand what Japan portfolio can do for the company. I am comfortable holding both and I am used to the market not be at the same place with me as I think I am ahead of it.
  27. 2 points
    I made my own observations under the recent, excellent article posted on SA https://seekingalpha.com/article/4108224-canadian-solar-rare-bargain-hiding-plain-sight I quote it in full here, Author, thank you for an excellent article. A couple of observations. The resale value of $1.8B, as per quote from the company release, includes “only the class B share value of the Company's tax equity deal projects in the U.S.” In my interpretation, this excludes minority-owned 49% of Southern purchase worth to the company $297M in carrying value under, as you have excellently pointed out, investment in affiliates. The confirmation is offered by the asset valuation of 1.26GW of operational plants, where the investment in affiliates is not included. I quote the company’s statement as “recorded on its balance sheet as project assets ($1,308.5 million), assets held-for-sale ($203.5 million) and solar power systems, net ($65.8 million). “ So 897MW, including the only 443MW in the US, is recorded as $1.57B worth of assets with the resell value of $1.8B. Based on the balance sheet from the Q2 the company had as much as $2.1B in solar plant assets, in three asset lines mentioned already, plus the non-current solar plant assets, including those in construction. For all those assets, the company has declared $1.3B in debt. The net of equity against the debt is $700M. At this point, the $297M of equity in affiliates is not included. However, it is easy to assume that at a minimum, $700M of equity is recoverable, if sales had zero profit. Canadian received only $190M in revenue from Southern in the sale of 379MW, which indicates that Southern has potentially taken on all the debt. In this case, $297M could be recoverable in full. Since all the projects have capitalized expenses, I would think the gross profit from $1.8B resale, in the amount of $222M can go all the way to the bottom line. I am not sure how much gross profit would be offered for 49% minority ownership of 363MW. At $0.15 per watt additional $55M could be extracted. In total, CSIQ can see around $1.2B added into cash with a reduction of debt by $1.3B. Since the $1.3B in equity of plants generates electricity, further debt is being reduced, therefore, improving the level of equity. Recurrent does have 6GW in mid-term project development pipeline in the US. CSIQ should be able to expand Canadian operations to few hundred of MW and use cell factory in Thailand to support tariff-free modules for own developer since Canada was not found as a cause of injury under Suniva. Lastly, the 75MW sold to IPO fund which the trading suppose to start on October 30th this year are estimated to sell at $3.51/watt. The revenue from those projects is about $28M per year based on FiT and generation. The 20% ownership retention would bring additional $0.70 per watt, which is very close in your estimates with $4.21 per watt.
  28. 2 points
    What is the gross margin in cents on a module versus a solar plant sale? So let's say you sold 1GW of modules in a quarter and the other company sold 1GW of plants. You overhead costs are the same. So you sold a module at .35 cents, and you made 0.035 per watt, you made a gross profit of $3.5M. As a plant builder, you built a plant at 1.10 and had 10% margin. You made $110M. Your gross profit is 3.14 times better. If you business costs 50M to run you lost money as a manufacturer, but as a plant builder you made $65M, etc. Your opex can be higher and you still make money. When CSIQ will start selling a large volume of plants this will be a lot more visible.
  29. 2 points
    I certainly appreciate your kind words on judgment, but I think if you have a look what is happening at Jinko balance sheet and what they are saying you will find CSIQ a lot more "sustainable". Interestingly JKS is holding very well and CSIQ is not. I think a lot are afraid that plants, especially those in the US, cannot be sold. Klothilde made a great effort to show they are not high margin plants but they are cash stoppers and so are the other ones. CSIQ has at least $600 to $700M plus cash flow potential from the plants. Yes including construction, Brazilian projects sold GM is about $300M. Just for those who are wondering rest of the known pipeline is the $300M of cash and GM potential, called it Japan for easy understanding. Although this is not Jinko's thread few observations. $1.5B in accounts payable $1.2B in receivable. They are not having a lot of cash generation. $10M in cash increase by borrowing $160M. Their inventory has for the second quarter over $700M. Sounds to me like poly, maybe, their GM will be sustained even without that much of the OEM, but at 10% plus. Suddenly black silicon is making a statement, the cost is 2 cents higher than CSIQ and price is about 0.7 higher for all that mono being sold. The company is exiting plant business, in case someone is still wondering due to not having the cash flow to support it. Impressive shipments, but looks like the balance sheet is getting heavy on leverage, and with the $1.2B in payables, people jumping to buy on weakness are paying for weakness in my opinion. JKS with all the signs of flat margin could make a loss in Q3 while CSIQ is likely to make a profit. Brazil appears not giving any issues to them and yes the US plants will be sold, it is a matter of time. Finally CSIQ all that cash let's go with $700M it can build a lot more plants it built last round and based on module pricing, even 10% is getting a lot more out of $1 per watt versus $0.37 per watt. The market may come to a realization on this or not, for now, JKS is a people's solar company.
  30. 2 points
    Canadian modules used by interesting construction site in Germany http://www.pveurope.eu/News/Installation/Innovative-PV-landfill-system-saves-costs-and-protects-the-environment
  31. 2 points
  32. 2 points
    This is what I found about today's downgrade: "Canadian Solar (CSIQ -7%) is downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight with a $14 price target at Barclays, which sees multiple near-term risks from the possible delay and/or weak pricing of project sales, soft investor demand for a J-REIT listing for its Japan assets in H2, and the Sept. 22 injury vote in the U.S. ITC 201 trade case. Project sale timing continues to be pushed back, the firm says, with expected 2017 sales already potentially delayed into 2018 and likely driving a 2017 revenue guidance miss. Barclays continues to see downward price risk potential for CSIQ to realize the full expected $1.8B of market value given the pressure on solar project values in the U.S. (60% of the company's portfolio); while CSIQ expects a J-REIT listing in H2, the J-REIT market continues to suffer from low liquidity, the firm adds." I was surprised to see this reaction. Normally, analysts can understand messages given to them by the companies; this one missed it. One is the sale of the projects. Qu just said it, the company who is buying it appears to be a foreign buyer. He quoted sPower transaction based on Alberta fund buying 700MW. The transaction was announced in February and consummated end of July. I would not be surprised if Bowmont Capital arranged the sale. They work with CSIQ in Canada and Alberta. So they found a buyer among Canadian companies, potentially. Not sure about the lower price here. Qu said it was what they expected. Yes, there is a push out of revenue for Q4, but if revenue is coming, does it matter if it is Q1 or Q4? Operationally (manufacturing) the company needs to produce profit, and I think that goal is more critical and frankly, Q4 is their most capable quarter this year to do so. What about the sale of Chinese, Japanese and UK projects? Can they have $1B in Q4 without the US sale? Sure they can. US sale is probably $1B on its own. JREIT- no liquidity, did the Barclay analyst read Reuters story? How does he know that? I bet he has a limited idea what he is talking about. Only 20% of the value, perhaps less will be the public issue; rest is loans. Is he saying there will not be $60M US on a Japanese market for it? Perhaps not, but I would not throw the company out for it. Looking at the numbers, Canadian will have double the volume of MW or more. IPO will tell the story, and this is just a speculation by Barclay. Two of the three funds are selling shares on the market btw, so what liquidity or lack of interest the speculation is based? Suniva- I guess he expected that Trump would not vote tariffs? I think that Canadian is uniquely positioned to avoid tariffs via Canada location. I do not know this for a fact, but law today allows for it. I kept my shares and averaged. Finally, what about the full potential of $1.8B? The stock is worth $800M now, I am not even sure what he meant.
  33. 2 points
    I think it will. I am trying to understand the increase in the value in the solar plant sales. I think FSLR has signaled that the market for solar assets turned into seller's one, as I have suspected for some time. I am trying to figure out what type of increase per watt selling plants would see in second part of the year. I am somewhere between 7 to 11%, or from $1.54 as much to $1.71. What is exciting the gross margin has even better movement. Canadian has calculated the own cost for solar plant watt at $1.24, and I had it about $1.38/watt for sale. I think FSLR is about $1.265 or so and gets 17% GM. At the price of $1.54 CSIQ would now see 19% or $120M more, not what I said before. One needs to remember that CSIQ is paying the debt principal for the plants with the electricity generation. I suspect this maybe as much as $25 to $30M per quarter. Upon sale, the larger equity portion would come back to the company. NAFTA countries may get an exception from the section 201 safeguards. I am more than certain nobody pays any attention to that. Lastly, I still think some of the true-up adjustment is coming up. Perhaps as much as $32M? Not sure here but this could be a surprise for this or next quarter. I doubt anyone at large is tracking this potential.
  34. 2 points
    Although there is a reason to whine in comparison to JKS, CSIQ made a 52 week high today and tracked all the way down. Attached is the table of my recommendations. I am particularly proud of staying away from SPWR outcome, 80% return. I still think this is a ticking bomb. I actually have not changed my mind on any of recommendations. However, I feel that SPWR, FSLR, and JKS is overbought or fully priced, so is NEP. I feel that PEGI, CSIQ are a bargain in the current environment. NYLD is bound to offer price but could easily add a dollar or two on its own. PEGI I price at $33 on 5% yield no increase in the dividend. As long as CSIQ can still make $1.54 ( and that is probably the unknown holding it back) it can be easily in range of $26 per share. I would say JKS could be $32 if they make $2 I predicted before. The PE assigned to both is about 16, the question is is the JKS being priced for $2 per share or is it given already 16 PE on $1.51. The window to make money seem like shrinking for CSIQ but its revenue is solar plants, those can be all sold in one day, technically, no apparent quarter is needed.
  35. 2 points
    Update from Roth https://roth2.bluematrix.com/sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=1bdf5d86-61f7-4ea0-92fc-44f38e51cd14&mime=pdf&co=Roth2&id=replaceme@bluematrix.com&source=mail Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  36. 2 points
    I've never bought a solar that did not offer multiple additional opportunities to buy more at a lower price in the future...
  37. 2 points
    Again the US side (despite being Chinese owned and funded) blame Chinese imports. Eh? US PV panel prices were much higher than world market prices for a long time due to the tariffs on the Chinese imports. That forced or incentivized capacity build out in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam from which US companies now can import PV panels cheaply since they don't have to pay tariffs on those and as this South East Asia capacity ramped up during 2016 the US PV panel price crashed during 2H16. Everybody knows this and even the big Chinese exporters are hurt by it in the same way as the tiny US producers and the imports from China to US crashed as well in 2H16. Below it is clear that the comment from China (although this Chinese company is one of the crazier ones) is much more fact focused. --- Despite Shunfeng’s majority ownership, Suniva’s chapter 11 bankruptcy filing speaks of Chinese manufacturers introducing a “flood” of cheap, subsidized PV cells and modules, and asks for trade relief in the form of higher trade duties or restrictions on the quantity of imports. In fact, Suniva states that the most important use of its DIP financing is to prosecute the trade case. It is not surprising that Shunfeng’s explanation is somewhat different, declaring that “the business of Suniva has been severely impacted due to the continuous import of solar modules from other photovoltaic manufacturers in southeast Asia at a decreasing cost”, and certainly not asking for higher tariffs on Chinese products. --- Getting back to facts this development is very good. Now US can enjoy cheap solar like the rest of the world, except China which retaliated forcing domestic producers to use expensive domestic poly for domestic shipments while they can still enjoy cheap poly imports for their exports. Time to end the trade war? US is just losing now. It lost the important (high tech) part of the value-chain, the polysilicon manufacturing, to save an irrelevant (low tech) one, panel assembly. China is still winning the war on poly domination which has been its strategy all the time (evident by the fact that it is sacrificing margins of its wafer, cell, panel and PV plant producers/builders to help boost the margin of its poly producers). FBR poly tech giant Norwegian REC has lost massively on its US bet to place its poly plants in the US and is now betting on China instead, building a big plant there in Yulin which will ramp to production in 2H17. The US/Japan JV Hemlock had to shut down plants in US which they had invested billions in. All to please a crazy German guy. There might still be time to save these two US polysilicon technology giants, but its running out. The old MEMC, then SUNE and now SEMI is also getting competition from China in the high purity poly (semiconductor) space. Massive US values with great competitive position and high moats were put at risk and basically lost to gain something irrelevant that a German guy whined about and that was never gained since if you are not competitive at it you can't slap tariffs on the entire world to solve that. Don't forget BK:ed GTAT either. GTAT, Hemlock (DOW), REC, AMAT, MEMC (SEMI). All these US high tech giants basically exported all their high tech solar products or manufacturing equipment to China and fell victims of the trade war because this German guy (river side castle builder Asbeck CEO of SolarWorld) had set up a non-cost efficient panel assembly plant in Ohio and started to focus on the opportunity of the law rather than technology. Someone should write a book about this the biggest trade war of our time when it and its consequences are concluded. How much damage to the planet (e.g. number of species extinctions) could have been avoided if the planets two biggest, without competition, totally dominating, energy consumers in the world had not made such big efforts to make solar energy more expensive to deploy their countries (at the same time as they tried to make it cheap, what a waste of money to pull in two opposite directions) at a time when urgent climate problem remedies are needed? Time to re-write international trade law?
  38. 2 points
    Well, I discussed this the other day with Explo. The value of stocks today is measured, most of the time, on what that company makes and not what the asset is worth. I get the math, like everyone, but the math is not used as much as it has been in the past. Do you discard an asset which cannot produce above the market price? No, you write it off. We have witnessed it. The company made financial actions to lower cost of module 4 production, artificially. The amount of money taken out was huge. Chances are, ASP drop will require more write-offs and that asset will shrink more. They have stopped upgrading, and they told the market that with x amount of capacity they need to sell x amount of modules. That is, unfortunately, nonsense. If the cash account had $500M and the debt was $3B, FSLR would be at $6 like SPWR. Cash is the only floating device, but the bet is not risk-free. Series 5 was not supposed to be a technical challenge, but as a transitional product, it ultimately failed the market conditions, despite being advertised as better, cheaper and market ready. If anything, look at the expediency of building capacity with silicon. They did shut down over 1GW of production btw, as a mathematical explanation for the write-off. I think the perception that series 6 is just an upgrade is not based in reality. Why are the two years needed if you have all the money in the world to build the best, cheapest module today? To me ordering tools, pilot runs, etc., this is a sign of running tests. I know enough about solar to know that equipment is being tuned in, and process developed with it as part of the ongoing design. Those two years are to make the concept work, to make the concept tools to work, tools which have not work in scale ever before. They ordered the tools which they have designed themselves? Nobody makes those today and shelf them yes? The makers of the tools do not have a clue if they will work, how could they? They would be selling them to everyone offering $0.25 cost of production. Referring to your conclusion about management not telling the truth. The company has told the markets things which did not materialize. My article about FSLR was based on the statement which was a lie. Their results versus Chinese continue to question their superior pricing. There is a real potential they are embellishing because the truth would be even tougher on the stock. I have seen this in the market before, not telling everything is not considered a lie.
  39. 2 points
    Trump is a self-centered greedy narcissist who knows damn well the damage coal plant emissions cause--he just doesn't care, as long as they don't affect HIM. Try putting up a smokestack next to one of his properties and see how "coal-friendly" he is then! Fortunately, the power of the Federal government in dictating the future of renewables has greatly decreased over the past decade, as the price point has finally come down to where wind and solar are on par with fossils, especially coal. Just google "Kentucky coal plant shutdowns" to get an idea of what's going on even in the heart of coal country. The future of renewables is now in the hands of state regulators and local utility boards. Those that were reluctant to move away from coal will continue to be so. But those that see the promise of both cheap and clean energy will continue to pursue that path, with or without the Feds. And I think that by and large, the market knows this. I'd be surprised if solars tank just based on this one action by the Idiot in Chief.
  40. 2 points
    I should say that CSIQ like all others buys mono cells. They have mostly mono modules advertised on their site. Companies like NSP are going to supply to them mono PERC cells for the residual 2,5GW of their business. I suppose the wafer and making an investment in DSW and black silicon, plus-multi PERC cell lines are their capacity growth path, while JKS is mono- PERC. When I look at the Q4 numbers and take all the adjustments out all of the Chinese companies would be breaking even. So I guess the point, which could be held against by critics of CSIQ is that they can make money with selling their plants only. Some people did not see an issue when FSLR was doing it, now when CSIQ is doing it is apparently a weakness. Perhaps it is an acumen. It means that CSIQ can make more money than anyone in the industry in 2017. For those who have read Travis, as usual being confused and sad as it is beloved SPWR is heading below $6, he made some nonsense comments about debt. CSIQ has over $1.3B in debt supporting plants. Plants which are about $1.7B worth, even at 10% GM this is about $500M cash flow. Deduction of those debts would put CSIQ debt over JKS by $400M. The $500M cash would make the asset positive. Considering that CSIQ has $400M in paper money and JKS has about $1.1B, I feel a lot better about that. I am excited. Things are looking a bit like 2013 from the level of the public pessimism. I feel like now it is the time to hunt the opening positions. I made my first step today. If things drop I will average.
  41. 1 point
    Something tells me you don't like me very much. Is there anything I can change so we get along better?
  42. 1 point
    Be careful with this notion. I can only recommend taking a minute to look at facts in more depth and cross-check assumptions. If you look at the market growth from 2015 to 2017 (see below) you will see that almost all the growth over the last two years came from within China, with little growth elsewhere (CAGR of 11% for non-China). Going into 2018 consensus is that the relevant non-China markets (U.S., India, Japan) are all set to shrink in 2018, so the non-China overall market will likely be flat or at best continue with little growth if emerging markets are strong enough (but which??). This means that global market growth in 2018 hinges squarely on China again. And the troubling thing with this is that growth over the last coupla years has been against all financial logic, with most of the installations still outside of the FIT regime and the FIT regime itself exhibiting a huge deficit and long payment delays: https://solarpvinvestor.com/topic/32-trading-solars/?page=3635&tab=comments#comment-95309 In a nutshell: If we want 50% overall market growth, and if non-China makes up half of the market and is expected to stay nearly flat in 2018, this means that China will have to grow 100% to 100GW despite the market there showing signs of being an unsustainable bubble. Imho China will stay flat in 2018 at best, meaning approx. flat installations globally as well (again, at best). Throw in new poly supply coming online and further strong migration to DWS and further tech progress including migration to mono-PERC and it's easy to make a case for poly oversupply with eroding poly ASPs and margins. http://www.solarpowereurope.org/reports/global-market-outlook-2017/ http://www.sunwindenergy.com/photovoltaics/new-pv-installations-approaching-100-gw-2017
  43. 1 point
    Depends on where you look, I think you forgot to take intangible assets out for both. Yahoo sees 1.23 for FSLR perhaps after $93M of those are taken out. They see 1.17 for CSIQ in the same stat. I am glad you mentioned positive thing for CSIQ and its equity. Book for Canadian should grow by 34% in my estimates. If CSIQ gets this 1.23 ratio, that is $26 per share. To me, PE is what the company can do and PB is what it did. It is hard to take PB and assess the future. I also think PB does not reflect the real value of solar companies. In my view in connection with EPS, PB should be higher to at least 1.5. SPWR is at 1.68 of it so people do not mind paying, while in case of SPWR they will get burned.
  44. 1 point
    Klothilde there is a difference in a cost in transport, and yes it is significant. You cannot quote the container cost traveling on the water or port to port without adding a land move as well. Moving it from Guelph is just the land move. The price from Malaysia is double for running a smaller unit (40) versus larger unit (53) in the continental the US when all costs are calculated. The rates are based on length of the trip, time at sea, as well, and they would vary. The time spent on the water is significant. Two weeks in best or a lot more, those two weeks can be used to install. It would take tandem driver set deliver anywhere within two days in the US. This is before freight gets loaded on a ship or gets unloaded, which could take a month if you hitting busy time, especially in Asia. The metric about S4 is not interpretation, the amount write-offs taken by the company for this particular product, made it positive gross margin. My calculation made S4 be in the level of Chinese cost from Q1. The cost is going up as they use it less, but the ASP has helped them. They were selling this module 9 to 10 cents above Chinese ASP due to Suniva by Q2 and actually cost going a bit higher from what they had in Q1. Yes, the product is inferior, has plenty of costs, reverse to S6 is true, and as S6 is a custom-made form factor. S6 comparisons are an improvement to S4, but I frankly yawn about how fast someone installs it to make a difference (agility) versus the fix quality of how less to connect it is etc. Let's see the real 100MW installation in S6 and we can discuss the cost dynamic.
  45. 1 point
    I see the equity value for plants, and it is not 900MW but 569MW direct ownership and they continue to confuse with an interest in statements. Yes, I am pretty convinced there is no more than $10 per share here and I would say less. One needs to know that debt must be acquired as well, that is additional $700M plus for the buyer. I am posting a table to show what I see for CSIQ transactions, it is easy to take the price per watt and compare. CAFD is worth $1.24B that is $2.17 per watt without debt. The price per watt for CSIQ projects is $2.04 AC (569MW is AC) including debt. No interest is paid on current credit, just principal. Think this way, $110M of CAFD for 14 years, no interest is paid. That is $1.54B in return, right? You pay $1.2B for equity and $700M for debt, debt which is going to cost 3 to 5% in interest per every year but let's take this out for now. So you bought a shell which makes no cash for $1.9B to get $1.4B return, $500M in a hole, as we sit here, still no interest. That $500M is over $6 per share. We are at $9 per share transaction to stay flat. That is my point here. Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) bought 80% interest in 1.7GW Mexican projects. It is a mix of solar and wind, the price paid $1.3B or so about under a dollar. A lot of equity needs to go in yet, as the projects are not complete for a large part of it and further contribution. is required, but certainly, nobody will pay $3.33 per watt for $2.70 dividend in case of CAFD. My two cents. I do not recommend to short or play with this. I think it is a trap to have it and I would ask owners of the stock reflect financially why they own the stock at this price.
  46. 1 point
    The market value of the CAFD stock right now is 79.1M shares times $14.84, that is about $1.17B. I just recounted their MW, they are 571.5MW of power owned by them. They have paid $1.5B for it (equity dollars) and borrowed against it $716M. If you take that as equity value you end up with some $788M against 79.1M shares. There is nothing else, no cash, no other income and dividends are paid out. It means that equity value is about $9.98 per share. The stock as mentioned trades at a massive premium at $14.83. I think I understand what you are saying about CSIQ, but I think the evaluation you make is a bit different than what I see. Let me explain. I look at the plants worth 1260MWp, which I calculate to be around 970MW ac, as $1.57B, given the value by the company. However, note that in the balance sheet project assets are $1.65B including construction. To properly assess the equity of solar plants, I add $220M and $65M, plus the not current project assets worth $147M, for a total of $2.118B, as a total value of all solar project in various categories. At this point, we are ready to deduct $1.3B in debt, which also includes, of course, debt for projects being developed. That leaves about $818M of equity. I am going to use about 60M shares and that gives you $13.64 per share. Based on current share price CSIQ’s manufacturing is valued $1.50 per share. One would think that I am done, but not yet. The company stated following: “The Company's portfolio of solar power plants in commercial operation was 1,260.2 MWp as of June 30, 2017, with an estimated total resale value of approximately $1.8 billion.” Further down they recorded the value as: “In addition to its late-stage utility-­scale solar project pipeline, the Company has a portfolio of solar power plants in operation, totaling 1,260.2 MWp as of June 30, 2017, which is recorded on its balance sheet as project assets ($1,308.5 million), assets held-for-sale ($203.5 million) and solar power systems, net ($65.8 million).” That is a profit from their sale potentially. That is additional $3.7 per share or $222M. Adding all together we have $17.34. not only manufacturing is worth zero it operates as a deduction of value now at negative $2 per share. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Barclays analyst who established his price knew that he has removed $16 in the price of CSIQ, he did say that himself due to a delay. I am very excited that market is so blind as the price is great to start a position or hold one. Cheers Robert
  47. 1 point
    Canada and Mexico are making its NAFTA case, the percentage of imports is even less than 2015. Lawyers for Sunvia want to eliminate those options, but frankly, I doubt it. They can not change the existing law. A window for CSIQ is opening, but they need to put cells in Canada. SPWR can also win here. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/foreign-governments-line-up-to-make-case-at-section-201-hearing
  48. 1 point
    Karma is a bitch. I do not wish bad things on anyone but they did and got their wish still could not make it. Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  49. 1 point
    I do not expect the kindness FSLR received from the market. However, if anyone comes in at 9%, they are losing money. Like I said before. FSLR stock behavior is beyond normal. There zero lasting effect from the guidance which leads to the same GM as expected numbers from November of 2016 got the stock 25% increase. Twitter, Tesla, Netflix investing is something I do not do well. FSLR just turned into one of those companies. I am sure that nobody will pay $17 per share for CSIQ if the company comes to $0.40 per share for the year. In fact, no Chinese company will see my valuations at those EPS levels. $1B will be spent by FSLR this year. Another $1B in 2019 I suspect if they want to compete. menaing bringing another 3GW online. The petition can save them, in an event of failure. Thin-film will be king for four years. Canadian may pull more digits out of plant sale if the market dries out there before that short-term saturation, this is the only thing which will make FSLR winning business, and to me, it is not investing. This unfairness and inability to predict any relevant terms of conducting business are impossible for me as an investor. I am back into yieldcos for now, very volatile, mind you, but at least for now, 30 plus days or so, I am holding to yieldcos and looking around.
  50. 1 point
    It is FSLR only, so it is not a sector. It is simple. Cash your gains, and if Q1 is weak open a short. Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk