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  1. 3 points
    https://www.engadget.com/2018/09/26/china-raises-renewable-energy-target-to-reduce-coal/?yptr=yahoo
  2. 3 points
    There's also this: Canadian Solar Inc. (the "Company" or "Canadian Solar") CSIQ, -0.42% one of the world's largest solar power companies, announced that it has completed the sale of three additional solar power plants totaling 30.4 MWp for JPY11.5 billion (US$103.1 million) to the Canadian Solar Infrastructure Fund, Inc. ("CSIF", Tokyo Stock Exchange ticker 9284) in Japan. This expands CSIF's current capacity to 105.6 MWp from 75.2 MWp. I suspect there's no reaction because there are 250 of us in the world that invest in solar stocks and we're all holding a bag already.
  3. 3 points
    I was thinking in a longer perspective on profitability on panel production. Much of their GM (not to mention their NM considering high R&D) on that was related to the cost of polysilicon. It's like you want to move the long-term ASP pain of FSLR from falling polysilicon costs to DQ. DQ shareholder pain won't alleviate FSLR shareholder pain so what's the point on bashing another stock for the pain that hits both your stock and that stock. Again I'm talking long-term profits and then it is really the thin film margin only that suffer from lowered polysilicon production costs not the polysilicon production margins. At least DQ can (in theory) do something about it by remaining competitive by re-taking the cost leadership in the future. FSLR can't do anything about the drop in contribution from this margin component (they can improve other components, but not this one).
  4. 2 points
    True grid parity without subsidies with storage around 2023 in the cheapest labor countries with moderately good insolation. Target $0.60/watt installed. If $0.10 for storage, then that becomes $0.50 without storage. At 35% module cost and 65% BOS, you have a module cost in projects at of $0.175 and a BOS of $0.325. The production costs will need to be around $0.13-$0.14 to achieve profits with Opex and shipping globally. By the way those production costs are in the mid to upper range of Perovskite prices suggested by GCL($0.10-$0.15). These are my rough numbers. but this article suggests 2020-2023 in China for the first subsidy free projects though they do get reduced land fees to free land use. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/05/22/china-reveals-details-of-first-15-gw-of-grid-parity-solar/
  5. 2 points
    New CN policy looks to be targeting 2019 installations greater than 2018. Seems to set targets of around 45GW. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963630.shtml According to the most conservative estimate, the installed capacity of photovoltaics will reach more than 45 million kilowatts in 2019, which has exceeded 44.26 million kilowatts in 2018 http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190219/963637.shtml In 2019, the subsidized rated installed capacity will be calculated according to the current expected 3 billion subsidy scale (excluding poverty alleviation). The subsidy intensity of the power subsidy is 0.075 yuan/kWh, and the subsidy scale is about 35.9 GW. (When the power subsidy intensity is 0.05 yuan/kWh, the subsidy scale is about 53.8GW), and then consider 5GW photovoltaic poverty alleviation and 5GW unsubsidized projects, and deduct about 1GW of household occupancy index after 2018 531, 2019 The installed capacity of photovoltaics in the year may reach 45GW, exceeding the installed capacity of 44.3GW in 2018.
  6. 2 points
    Awesome update from CSIQ. Beat on Q4.
  7. 2 points
    Hopefully not for a buyout at 18.60! Chuckle....
  8. 2 points
    The story of Canadian pipeline shrinking was heard loud and clear on this forum since Canadian plants were completed. The company is not only one pure developer still standing, but it is producing more and more business encompassing other arms of managing solar plants. It maintains healthy "sell and/or keep" strategy. There are many markets to go with solar plants. And those markets will expand. We have not seen any victims of the slowdowns with exception of few subs going bankrupt in China. There is plenty of space available. The manufacturing and the decisions made had worked thus far for the company. I am not sure why transformation, when required, would not be as well executed as it has been to date. Not sure why a successful organization would suddenly lose its footing. They are the most capable of a shift. FSLR has zero ability to shift, SPWR is dead, JKS is almost dead and will never be buried if it died, like Yingli, but CSIQ is somehow paralyzed and cannot make a move? I read those scenarios too many times. I argued against them as many, and I am surprised to see them again. Even Snake seems to be seeing Chinese taking FSLR to cleaners now. I do not have a skin in this game, but I think Canadian could surprise few folks here with its share price going forward. Cheers, I am back under the rock.
  9. 2 points
    While I understand (and, as a former [albeit small] JASO stockholder, share) the sentiment, I wouldn't put too much stock into this announcement (pun intended). First, since the guilty parties are all in China, I don't know if a US court has any jurisdiction over them. Second, Pomerantz are ambulance chasers. I've seen their name in dozens of headlines. A company will announce bad news one day, and the next half a dozen of these guys all announce lawsuits, including Pomerantz. I have never once heard of such a suit actually being successful. So this may be a Pyrrhic victory at best....
  10. 2 points
    What are you talking about???? The CNs (well, what's left of them--JKS and CSIQ) are actually UP 30-50% off their lows, and holding steady despite the market tanking 400 points/day. Even DQ never hit your predicted teens (although it came darn close), is up 25% from there, and is also not falling back down. It looks to me like "the market" has called a bottom on the CN solars. Barring unexpected bad news, the expected direction is up from here.
  11. 2 points
    New article just out: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/daqo-energy-begins-pilot-production-103000440.html So here's the business case, according to the article: production cost to decrease to $7.50/kg by end of Q1 19, to $6.80/kg by end of Q1 20. Klothilde, what does your number-crunching say about profitability at these cost levels?
  12. 2 points
    I find the Poly market segment and DQ going through what looks like a 2 to 3 year re-adjustment. This is something this specific segment has not done as it has been relatively young compared to the wafer / cell / module segments. There is cloudiness in the Poly segment of the industry as it looks to re-allocate manufacturing capacity and costs. DQ itself has recently announced writedowns and an exiting of wafer manufacturing. They are taking $20M on 500MW. I am not certain that covers the whole costs. As for the segment, there is a ton of new cpacity coming online that is all under $6/Kg based on analysis. This capacity is coming online now and forever on. The poly segment has indicated that the $12/KG capacity is going to be shut down near term due to not being competitive. The next question is when there is a bunch of sub $6/Kg poly production what will the ASP be like? I might speculate it would be $7-8 +/-. That would then put the capacity that has costs in in the $7-$9/KG at risk of write downs or shutdowns over the next few years. DQ will have over 30+KMT of that capacities production targets online by the end of the year. This would lead me to believe that this current capacity may be written down at some point in the next 3 years. This ASP adjustments and the potential of additional adjustments in the next few years creates a cloud in the Poly industry. That cloudiness has happened in every other segment of the Solar industry several times. To quote Mark Cuban, for that reason I am out.
  13. 2 points
    Given the Issuer’s high quality assets as well as the outstanding $18.47 per Share acquisition proposal (the “Privatization Proposal”) made by Shawn (Xiaohua) Qu, the Issuer’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (the “Chairman”), Lion Point continues to believe that the Shares are significantly undervalued and trade at a steep discount to their intrinsic value. Lion Point also believes that there are significant opportunities within the control of the Issuer’s management and Board of Directors (the “Board”) to unlock shareholder value, including operational expense reductions, share repurchases, improved communication with public investors and strategic transactions, including a spin-off or separate listing of the Issuer’s energy business or a sale of the Issuer as a whole or in parts. Following the public announcement of the Privatization Proposal, Lion Point had conversations with several large financial and strategic institutions that expressed an interest in potentially providing financing for the Privatization Proposal, and Lion Point subsequently submitted a preliminary term sheet, subject to due diligence and certain other conditions being met, including the participation of certain third party financing sources, to the Chairman offering to provide a 5-year financing package of up to $250 million to i) backstop the sources of funds arranged by the Chairman for the Privatization Proposal and ii) to make additional funds available to increase the per Share price of the Privatization Proposal, if necessary. Lion Point has also indicated to the Chairman that, based on its discussions with certain financial institutions and strategic investors, it may be able to significantly increase the size of the offered financing subject to governance, diligence and other conditions.
  14. 2 points
    The crown would be that of low cost manufacturer. FSLR is around $0.27 without shipping. The numbers suggested by CSIQ puts them lower than that even with shipping costs. This makes the cost advantage that FSLR has had for years as gone. Their only advantage in the markets now are in the U.S. due to tariffs. A company propped up by a single market and its policies is not an attractive investment. When FSLR gets the S6 next gen finally ramped is not going to add the margins that where being projected by some anymore. Couple that with the lack of project development revenues and their future does not look bright enough to wear shades.
  15. 2 points
    I'm pretty happy Klothilde is here. Happy she is thinking of other folks' holdings. It's the discussing that has value for me.
  16. 2 points
    Regarding the ASP drops for upstream supplies, if you track the 2 past major oversupplies there is only a slight bounce back in ASP of 15% or so. Then a period of relative stability. The most recent was the crash to the lower $0.50's down to the low low $0.30s appx 1.5 to 2 years ago. This happened relatively quick before CN demand drove up the price to the upper $0.30's where it stood for the last year. The $0.31-$0.32 was more or less cash cost less depreciation. Remember Poly back then was also bottomed at $12/KG back then as well. You should expect this cycle to act similar but the recovery to be slightly different due to the CN policy change designed to drive the ASP to $0.25. As for the past YOY cost cutting, you need to recognize that the company was shifting from a pure Poly module manufacturer to a mono manufacturer. Those cost reductions include what is now 30% production and climbing of mono that was a 8-10% higher production cost with what was claimed as a 12%+/- higher ASP. The reductions were also during a materials price hike on most materials. Eventually there is a re-balancing of those input cost margins. The Si Cost of it when Diamond wire and new Tech is in place is going to drop the SI from $0.075 to $0.4. That alone is a permanent 10% savings. The SI cost will have room to drop even further in the next 2 years that will impact the cost to manufacture a module by another 5-10%. What is clear is that the CN mfg cost are approaching $0.25 or less. This will be a permanent price range that the upstream suppliers will lower costs to be profitable. The CN companies have a path to further increase efficiencies by another 20% using new technologies that wiill be ramped in the next 1 to 2 years. These will drive the productin costs down to the $0.20 range to support the $0.24 ASP price range targets in 2020. Just in time for FSLR Series 6 mass scale ramps. By the way some of the new technology that will be ramped chips away at some of FLSR benefits being better performance under higher temperatures and low light absorption.That 7% benefit making them more desirable for certain markets and a price premium per watt will decrease the premium.
  17. 2 points
    I consider this poly drop from $19 to $11 way less of a challenge for FSLR than the historical drop from $500 to $19 which they navigated through quite successfully. The key was delivering a higher rate of process cost reduction / efficiency improvement than their CN peers. Currently JKS' cost data suggests that the rate of process cost reduction (i.e. non-poly cost) of the CNs has slowed down significantly over the last several quarters to less than 5% yoy, which translates to an advantage for FSLR who is currently going supersonic in cost reduction with S6. Yes, the CNs are currently seeing way lower input costs through cheaper upstream materials but this does not truly reflect process improvement. It's pure desperation of wafer and cell makers who are forced to sell at cash or below to remain liquid. Anyhows, interesting topic that belongs in a FSLR thread and not here. As DQ is concerned I'm just interested in counteracting some irrational pumping that we've seen here (stock going to $120 etc.) and warning people based on facts and data. A poly drop from $19 to $11 means that DQ quarterly EPS drops from $3 to $0, as simple as that. Moreover since poly oversupply will likely worsen over the next quarters there's little chance that earnings will rebound anytime soon. Imho this is not reflected in the current share price yet and people have to be extremely careful. The last thing I would do is hold this one through the ER next week. I'm sure some of the smart people here think alike so please speak up and don't make me look like the forum b*tch here please.
  18. 2 points
    Getting slammed the past few days. Comments by Prescience Point Capital Management are tanking it. Such a scam that stuff like that is legal.
  19. 1 point
    I was so excited earlier this year when ENPH hit $7. Looks like $17+ today and no end in sight as they build market share with their industry leading products. IQ8 by the end of the year!
  20. 1 point
    CANADIAN SOLAR SET A WORLD RECORD OF 22.28% MULTI-CRYSTALLINE CELL CONVERSION EFFICIENCY http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-set-world-record-2228-multi-crystalline-cell
  21. 1 point
    Approaching 50% return less than 4 months into the year. Nothing special in solar world, but this time my capital preservation strategy is better. After a long time of focus on asset allocation optimization and verification of Alpha and Beta return attribution I've recently focused more on return contribution analysis in order to verify that the allocation does not contain any poor contributors due to flawed strategy or tactic. I think that this continuous qualification of the strategy and tactic is key to long-term performance success. --- Goal Financial independence by 2030 Objective 15% annual return @ 25% volatility Strategy Rebalance optimal allocation Tactic Buy the dips and hold the rips Allocation Return
  22. 1 point
    Only what the web shows. The web suggests they are a 200MW facility that assembles the modules in San AntonioTexas. They use Asian sourced components. They shut down their 100MW cell late 2016 https://www.pv-magazine.com/2016/10/03/mission-solar-energy-to-close-texas-cell-lines-lay-off-87-employees_100026343/ There warranty is 4 to 12 years on mechanical assemby and 25 yrs on power degredataion http://www.missionsolar.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/MSE-PV-Module-Limited-Warranty-2018-2019-4BB-5BB.pdf They wholesale for around $0.70/watt https://www.bluepacificsolar.com/best-solar-panels.html It looks like they are a subsidiary of OCI lmtd, those same Multi National guys who make Poly in Seoul Korea. http://www.missionsolar.com/about-us/ They started up around 2014 and have panels installed in the Alamo1 power plant located in San Antonio area. https://newsroom.cpsenergy.com/made-san-antonio-solar-panels/ Hope this helps.
  23. 1 point
    Hmmm, Q4 DQ had 61% production being mono. In Q1 they are forecasting 78% of their production will be mono. To me that sounds like the Multi ASP drop will not impact them significantly for now. As you can see from their transcript below they indicate that Mono would not drop much due to the production costs of most online. In fact they were suggesting due to ratios of mono vs multi poly and much better pricing on Mono and more production Q1 should be improved margins. As for the price tightening, when everyone refines and moves from junk poly to mono quality, then the Si price for Poly wafer production will rebound as the glut will be less. That price rebound for poly would create a narrowing in the price gap. That suggests that that while Mono may decline some, it will not necessarily decline much since the Mono wafers is ramping much faster this year in wafer productions vs last year. Now to add to that DQ, is suggesting they will reduce cash costs to $6.0/KG. That is close to 20% from the Q4 producton costs, This means that they can easily maintain profitability with handle the price dropping 20% from Q4 levels to $~8/KG . When you recognize they will have 2x the capacity and $6/Kg cost, the spread and margins can be narrower and they can make more money than now come 2020. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4248446-daqo-new-energy-corp-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single "For example, I can say an example, in Q4, our monosilicon supply is around 61%. So, if you look our gross margin, our monosilicon price ASP is around like $10 and the multi is around $6.30 or whatever. Our ASP is around like renminbi is around like – US dollar maybe around like $9.50. So, we see in Q1, we will get more improved our gross margin, the reason because first of all, the monosilicon percentage will increase to around 77%, 78%,"
  24. 1 point
    JKS booked out until H2 and expanding capacity 10-20%: https://menafn.com/1098223156/China-plans-to-sustain-solar-growth-with-its-new-policy
  25. 1 point
    My estimize numbers are 0.16 and 75. Though it is highly possible that DQ uses the lousy 2018 4Q to clean up all the loose ends and write down the kitchen sink. If there is value in that inventory, etc. they just sell it and reconcile on the positive side for 1Q. So Klothhilde could be the winner here with a negative 4Q number. I agree with a turn up in the 2Q and continuous improvements throughout the year.
  26. 1 point
    Ah, I see, you are narrowly looking at the word Green New Deal and suggesting it is strictly power. Green means many things. Like Getting Chemicals our of building materials. Getting harmful chemicals out of the ground and water. Having healthy natural foods that are not processed or altered (GMO) or hormone injected being fed to to us. Medicines that are consumed and then pissed into the water systems polluting the water. Broaden your scope and this New Deal lays out a template of objectives that are good goals to want to achieve.
  27. 1 point
    It's taking off folks! Watch out for 40 before August, now is not the time to take a quick buck.
  28. 1 point
    Why do we have to "spin" anything? This is a board for factual discussion.
  29. 1 point
    I am not Klothilde but I do have a few predictions for the upcoming earnings. First off, the company should declare a fairly large tax refund. In 2017 First Solar took a $405M hit to repatriate its overseas earnings due to the new tax bill. Considering the one-time rate was 15.5%, this seemed like a massive overpayment. Management has a history of overpaying taxes and then claiming a big refund. Unless I am mistaken this should provide a huge ($1.5-$2) EPS beat. The company has alluded to a potential refund in every earnings call and 10-Q this year. Here is what they said last time. "To relate, the U.S. tax reform enacted last December, we have not recorded any adjustment through Q3 related to our original estimates. We expect to finalize our accounting related to tax reform in Q4 based upon finalization of currently proposed tax regulations and the filing of our federal and state income tax returns." Also, during the guidance call the company hinted at possibly expanding in either Vietnam or Ohio. It wouldn't be to surprising for them to announce construction beginning on a third plant in Vietnam. Also, management mentioned getting started on 5GW of projects to qualify for the ITC Safe Harbor requirements. This should mean that the projects pipeline should grow dramatically in the next few quarters. Lastly, here's an article about a 135GW project getting developed in Cambodia. It would appear the company is still competitive internationally.
  30. 1 point
    SWEET!!!! So prices are expected to rise, while everyone keeps cutting costs. Means margins will inflate. And with over 100 GW being installed worldwide year after year, volume is no problem. Good volume + increasing margins = good profit growth! Could we finally be on the verge of turning the corner--permanently?! The optimism in this article certainly explains the rise in share prices we've seen across the board recently. Think I'll keep my still-underwater positions in CSIQ, JKS, and DQ a bit longer.
  31. 1 point
    FSLR nowhere in sight by the way...
  32. 1 point
    A 30% return based on the date of the post and today's closing. The stock is at just above $1.3B market. Two M&A actions, BMY, and CELG mentioned by explo and LLY buying LEXO are putting a bit of fire on the buyout candidates. BMY and Pfizer is a maker of Eliquis and JNJ and Bayer make Xarelto. Andexxa made by Portola is an antidote for the two drugs. Eliquis is more dominant in sales, between overall markets some $12 or $13B in sales in 2019 and more with an available antidote. Now JNJ and Beyer wanted to use Xarelto in the area where Bevyxxa another Portola drug is already approved. Since BMY bought Celgene, JNJ purchase of Portola seems very logical. There is a sense that Portola can help JNJ and the perception that Xarelto has more bleeds with Andexxa. Bottom line Portola is a candidate for a buyout and JNJ seems like a potential buyer. At 4 times of Andexxa $1B sales and perhaps $500M for Bevyxxa when fully running, $6B looks like $96 per share. This will not happen tomorrow, but there is a good potential that stock could be $70 by Q3 of this year. Good Luck.
  33. 1 point
    "Thanks for the upgrade Brian, that was very nice of you. Keep up the good work."
  34. 1 point
    They were asked why their competitors (read CSIQ) reported significantly higher margins. The reply was basically "it is not sustainable". Keep in mind that CSIQ reported exactly double GMs of JKS (taking CVD out, 25% or so for CSIQ vs. 12.5% or so for JKS). How can this great margins disparity continue? JKS said they expect margins to remain stable (read mid-upper 12% not including one timers, not 15%+ they said before). This means CSIQ's manufacturing business margins have to go down eventually or sooner than later.
  35. 1 point
    Now we just need them to work this stinkin' price up. I was happy to see the new big fish in the pond (Luminus) and seeing that actually kept me from selling more yesterday. I believe they're averaged in somewhere around 14.04 or something.
  36. 1 point
    The PR is bad. http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/update-going-private-proposal They declined the offer because they do not think he has financing to go through with it because of market changes? Nothing about the offer price being rejected due to being insufficient? With this PR, the bottom support has been removed. I would expect significant downward pressure.
  37. 1 point
    I just went to see my last article on SPWR on SA. It was dated November 9, 2017. I thought by now the equity would be negative there is still $35M. I see by end of the year be zero or negative. Said hi to Larry. The stock hit high $5s and I promised to say hi when it happens.
  38. 1 point
    Hmm... something sounds familiar here... First Solar shares are 'significantly undervlaued,' says JPMorgan https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2813212 "JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster believes First Solar is "significantly undervalued" based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis which factors in the company's current projects and net cash position. Net cash currently represents nearly 60% of market value and the core module business is trading at about 3.9 times 2021 EBIT net of capex and pending project sales, Coster tells investors in a research note. He keeps an Overweight rating on First Solar with a $75 price target. He reminds investors that the company will provide fiscal 2019 guidance on an investor update call to be held in late-Q4, which he believes could serve as a positive catalyst."
  39. 1 point
    Chinese solars coming in with Q3 express reports. No surprise earnings are down and impacted by the new deal https://www.pv-tech.org/news/impact-from-chinas-solar-deployment-cuts-start-hitting-companies-q3-financi
  40. 1 point
    FSLR can only sell in the U.S. due to the Trumpian tariffs for the premium. That premium is quickly fallen. The ROW they are now not competitive. That is 20% of their shipments if I recall. As for the U.S. There is also 2.5GW of tariff free that can be imported and Sunpower can import unlimited tariff free modules. They will be getting those modules on the cheap with the ASP collapse. Now as for the ASP collapse, here is a nice link that covers the impact on foreign pricing that you can now adjust for current ASPs. https://news.energysage.com/2018-us-solar-tariff-impact-prices/ The first year was expected to have a 10-12 cent impact. based on module low and high prices.The second year it falls by 5% to a 25% tariff. It was expected that based on a 32 to 38 cent module ASP the impact would add 8-10 cents. Now the reality is that the module prices are now in the $0.24-$0.28. That places the impact at 7.2-8.5 cents for the rest of the year. Starting February 2019 the rate drops to 25% and the impact on the module drops to 6-7 cents. So the ASP will soon be $0.30-$0.35 for 2019 at most. In all probability with 2.5GW of tariff free modules to subisdize the profits, the ASP could be $0.28-$0.33 in 2019 especially when looking at Sunpowers unlimited imports. Jinko and others are ramping U.S. module manufacturing as well. They will be importing solar cells at cost or $0.09-$0.013(multi Mono). With the tarrif impacts the cost is $0.115- $0.165. That means at 12-13 cents for module processing their costs for Multi will be around $0.245 and mono at $0.275. From that the ASP will stay in that upper $0.20s to low $0.30s for ASPs. By the time the S6 lines are ramped come 2020, the tariff impact will only be 20% and if trends continue as China moves wafering to low energy regions of inner Mongolia and cheaper Si is abundant, then the cost for US manufactured will be in the $0.23-$0.26 range with an ASP under $0.30. Those Chinese imports will be almost as competitive. There is not a lot of meat on the bone for FSLR at those ASPs.
  41. 1 point
    They should do quite well as they are migrating quickly from junk poly wafers to high efficiency perc and mono. The spread on Poly Perc Cells to Poly Perc Modules is $0.17 or 25% margins (0.11/0.28). The spread on Mono Perc Cells to Mono Perc Modules is $0.155 or 18.2% margins (0.147/0.302). Compare those margin potentials with the current S4 costs of $0.27 production costs for FSLR and the average Thin Film ASP at $0.265.
  42. 1 point
    Sorry I am in Jamaica and not following closely. This was two days ago.lol
  43. 1 point
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/08/27/is-china-about-to-add-10-gw-of-unsubsidized-solar/
  44. 1 point
    Looks like FSLR is loosing the crown in favor of CSIQ... 🙂
  45. 1 point
    It's your dirty mind. They just MADE $1/share in earnings, when you confidently predicted your calculations showed they would be losing money. Your calculations were correct, by the way--just for the wrong stock. It's your beloved FSLR that couldn't stay above breakeven during this period. Of the two stocks, I know which one I'm more comfortable holding. It's just a shame the market doesn't reward results equally, otherwise we both know which stock would lead the other by $20 share price. I suspect that gap will now narrow, if not close.
  46. 1 point
    I have no problem with a discussion of any particular stock's merits. That's why we're all here. But I DON'T need a recommendation on what to do with my holdings, especially from someone holding an equally questionable stock. I can ignore it once. Twice. Three times, even. But after a while, it starts to (obviously) get under my skin. Enough is enough. This is not a Yahoo pumper/basher board. Let's stick to a discussion of the facts, and let everyone make their own investment decisions from there.
  47. 1 point
    I double downed on CSIQ 2 days ago. I also took an entry position for JKS then as well for an earnings run up. I believe the potential for cost reduction is great when compared to the ASP drop. Buy a Poly PERC cell and slap it into a module for <$0.24 and sell for $0.30 is a gross of $0.06/watt. That is an increase in margins. Mono PERC cells bought and slapped into modules for <$0.25 and sold for $0.32 is a $0.07 gross and margins of almost 22%. Both of these potentials are an increase in both margins and gross for companies that have a good sales chanell. The Downside is risk to volumes for JKS. I believe CSIQ has already set their volume guidance reasonably.
  48. 1 point
    Judging by our analyst friends and the price action it seems like we are OK. Yeah they are the least pumping company I know. Heck they don't even do pro forma accounting, right?
  49. 1 point
    They have set a blended price target in the $0.26-$0.28 price range based on a 15-17% further price erosion from the $0.32-$0.33 ASP target the had forecast originally. That is the year end pricing. It looks based on a 30/70 blending of MonoPerc/PolyPerc that price range is close to where the ASP ranges are today. In 2019, I might gather another 5-10% price decline as they shift more to 50/50 or 60/40 MonoPerc/PolyPerc. A 5% further decline would place average PolyPerc at $0.24 and average MonoPerc at $0.28 for a blended ASP of $0.26. Currently Mono Perc in China is $0.286 average with a low of $0.27 while the ROW is $0.04 higher. Poly would have a slight ASP decline from todays lows. A 10% decline in 2019 would then drive the blended ASP to $0.2475 by the end of the year. That would place pricing at .265/.235 MonoPerc/PolyPerc. If you look at the original target year end ASP of $0.32 with an 18% GM, their cost to manufacture was going to be $0.2816. That cost is above either a 5% or a 10% price decline ASP for year end 2019. To mantain 18% GM on the $0.27 year end 2018, the blended cost at $0.23. With a $0.10 module processing cost and current Perc Cell prices, that $0.23 comes in around $0.235. This is a $0.035 gross per watt. Currently no company shipping globally has an average Opex+Interest below $0.04/watt. Basically this confirms that they will likely have an ASP above cash cost + depreciation.
  50. 1 point
    Nice read from Trina on the markets. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/pv-talk-rongfang-yin-vice-president-of-global-sales-and-marketing-at-trina BNEF has recently said after the China policy changes that it expected PV module prices to fall 34%. What kind of solar module price declines are you expecting? "One thing I would like to clarify is that with or without the China policy changes, our forecast for this year’s prices was a decline. For example at the start of the [module] prices would be around US$0.36/W and were expected to decline to say US$0.33/W or US$0.32/W. This was expected due to cost reductions, technology etc… But people have tried to say that due to the China policy changes the prices would decline by so much. What will be interesting to watch is what will be the actual impact on prices, due only to the China policy change. From my perspective, I think the China policy change will make a 15% to 18% difference to pricing by year-end.


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