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Klothilde

Solar Investor
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Everything posted by Klothilde

  1. Klothilde

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I'm getting only $557M with the above. 🤔
  2. Klothilde

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Could you help me with basic metrics like ASP CPW GP? Greatly appreciated. You seem to be implying a GP o f $550 - $700M. Right?
  3. Klothilde

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    My favorite subject, yummy! 😋 Does anyone of you guys have a 2019 EPS estimate? Consensus right now is $2.38 but I don't know you guys. Module prices are just soo low and their OPEX is soo high...
  4. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    China solar wafer makers to demand polysilicon price cuts https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20190115PD200.html I know asking is not the same as receiving but this is something to keep an eye on nevertheless.
  5. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    Fair point with the stock-based compensation. I would counter that OPEX&NI was already around $9M before that bump and will probably increase once 3B shipments are ramped. Also fair point with the capitalization of interest. As to the magnitude of debt I keep thinking we could end up north of $300M. They indicated that total 4A CAPEX is RMB3.2B: "To answer your question, I think 4A total investment is around RMB 3.2 billion, equivalent to USD 500 million." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4173971-daqo-new-energys-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-q1-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single At today's exchange rate it's more like $475M. Currently they have around $110M in cash. Adding your midrange earnings of $47M and an estimated $36M in depreciation gives a total of $193M in cash available for CAPEX. Leaves a financing gap of $282M. Throw in some working capital requirements and you're easily above $300M.
  6. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    I'm fine with your gross numbers but I think OPEX&NI will be higher. Over the last 2 quarters they had around $11M in OPEX&NI taking out one-timers. That would lower your EPS estimates to -$0.07/ $0.07/$0.22 and assuming a spread of $2.00 it would lower EPS to $0.17/ $0.37/$0.57. Continuing your calcs I end up with a fair market price of $8. I see further downside with OPEX&NI expanding beyond the current $11M. Shipment and production ramp will increase OPEX but I see a particular hidden risk in NI. Reason is they have to dish out nearly $500M in Capex for 4A and their operating cash has already been squeezed to a minimum. Also there might be some additional payments left for 3B. If they take on let's say $300M in debt that would increase NI by nearly $4M per quarter at 5% interest rate. And who knows if interest rates go higher after 5/31. What is your take on debt and interest payments going forward?
  7. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    Is your DQ a trading position or do you intend to hold for a long while? Because then I don't understand why to enter now when polysilicon prices are still falling. As written above I also intend to enter but first I'm waiting for the market to bottom out when the new low-cost capacities are online. I think analysts and the market as a whole are still overestimating 2019 EPS big time (current consensus $4.23 😳) and they need to adjust expectations first.
  8. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    I feel like gambling a little bit with DQ, ideally I want to pick it up in the single digits and then dump it some months later in the 30s or so. I think the poly glut will peak in Q2 when all new capa is online and in the second half of the year the increased demand should lift up prices somehow. DQ has proven to be quite resilient, so I would expect a solid rebound once poly prices improve a little bit. That is my thinking at least. As far as FSLR is concerned it is obviously poly price exposed but the exposure is limited. I expect poly to bottom at $7.5 or so from the current $9. That would decrease module prices by 0.6 cts/W roughly. That downside is relatively small compared to the cost cutting potential and is not immediate since they got prices largely fixed for the next two years.
  9. Klothilde

    Solar News

    The ones Daqo put out in August: "...According to industrial forecasts, global solar installations are expected to reach 95 to 105 gigawatts for 2018. With lower and more competitive PV prices, the global solar installation could reach 120 to 140 gigawatts in 2019 and 140 to 160 gigawatts in 2020. At Daqo New Energy, we are confident in the long-term sustainable growth of the polysilicon industry..." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4195800-daqo-new-energys-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-q2-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
  10. Klothilde

    Solar News

    Is energytrend suggesting flattish global demand over the next years or does this gal need new glasses? Whatever happened to grid parody and demand explosion? https://www.energytrend.com/research/20190103-12956.html
  11. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    This article has poly bottoming out around RMB60/kg in Feb-March. That would be $7.5/kg ex VAT, just sayn... http://m.solarzoom.com/article-119512-1.html I'm thinking of getting me some DQ when we hit the bottom...
  12. Klothilde

    Solar News

    The way I see it Longi has made all other Si technologies other than mono obsolete and nonviable. The more a company is into technologies other than mono the more shagged the company is. I believe CSIQ is in deeper trouble than JKS with 100% multi wafer capa vs. 40%. All their fancy HuKuDoopu "innovations" won't help them from succumbing to mono in the end. The reason is super simple: at the system level mono provides more than 2 cts/W higher value than multi. Means that multi wafers need to be sold at a discount of roughly 2 cts/W compared to mono. Problem is Longi can sell mono wafers profitably for 7.5 cts/W but the multi makers cannot go down to 5.5 cts/W without incurring humongous losses. It will be extremely interesting to see how CSIQ will deal with this. I firmly believe their module business will go down the crapper sooner than later because they won't be able to compete with mono.
  13. Klothilde

    Solar News

    Good Lord, now it's Hareon going belly up. When will this end? https://www.pv-tech.org/news/hareon-solars-main-manufacturing-subsidiary-forced-into-bankruptcy-liquidat
  14. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Thanks for the upgrade Brian, that was very nice of you. Keep up the good work.
  15. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    Current poly market update on guangfu: http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190103/953801.shtml Same old boring story of soft demand and increasing supply driving prices downward. This trend is expected to continue in Q1 according to the author. The interesting question is why analcysts are keeping DQ EPS and P targets where they are. Any thoughts? Also interesting is the question if the price trend will force them into the red zone in Q1 despite having 3B at full utilization and record low cost. The article talks about mono-grade poly having dropped to RMB73.7/kg at the low end already, which translates to $9.2/kg ex VAT. At that price level they would already be approaching 0 EPS in Q1.
  16. Klothilde

    Solar News

    Actually the PR states that "...The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the Disposal for working capital purposes..." Working Capital is the money you need to keep the day-to-day business running, a.o. to keep inventory and extend customer credit. Chances are they are burning cash and they have liquidity issues. But that's just me thinking out loud here. http://www3.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2018/1228/LTN201812281325.pdf However this comes at no surprise imo. Does anybody remember Daqo disposing of their loss-making wafering unit? Just connect the dots then. And this will come back to haunt JKS and CSIQ as well, trust me, because they invested in significant poly wafer capacity. Bummer.
  17. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    What's in store for Daqo this year? Who thinks the current price targets are justified? Daqo said in august they expected rising poly prices until the end of the year. But prices have been falling steadily instead. So did they mislead intentionally or were they just over-confident?
  18. Klothilde

    Solar News

    GCL forecasting a loss of RMB534M ($77.6) for the first 10 months: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/02/gcl-poly-plans-to-sell-wafer-unit-expects-77-6-million-loss-for-first-10-months-of-2018/ Given they had a net profit of RMB382M in H1 this points to tectonic or monumental losses in Q3, with negative GMs for wafers according to my crystal ball. I expect some of these losses to be passed on downwards to module makers over the next quarters as spreads narrow in the downstream. But that's just me. http://gcl-poly.todayir.com/attachment/201809131006111736194589_en.pdf
  19. Klothilde

    Solar News

    PVInfolink starting the year showing a breakdown of regional module prices. U.S. module prices very robust, 32 cts for multi and 38 for mono PERC. Kudos to FSLR. https://en.pvinfolink.com/post.php?sn=2
  20. Klothilde

    Solar News

    Happy new year to y'all 😊 From this article I'm getting a vibe that U.S. utility demand will be humongous over the next years. That bodes well for FSLR: https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/01/01/solar-tsunami/
  21. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    Good god they have a PT of 58 USD and my glass ball has them in the single digits. I should revisit my assumptions when I have some time. Can I be so off?
  22. Klothilde

    Daqo (DQ)

    OMG they've reached full capacity outilization on 3B and now Q1 cost is expected to drop to 7.5 USD/kg you guys! Can someone translate to EPS please?
  23. Klothilde

    Solar News

    Latest SEIA quarterly report. It's titled Q4 but refers to Q3. As if life wasn't complicated enough. https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2018-q4 11.2GW of utility PPAs signed in the first 9 months of 2018. Multi selling for 38 cts in Q3 and Mono-PERC for 41. That's just wonderful for FSLR. Strong demand and strong pricing.
  24. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Holding up well. If you want drama and heart attack look to other solar plays.
  25. Klothilde

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Help me out here guys, my glass ball tells me EPS in 2020 will grow to around $4,5 - $5,0 mainly by migrating fully to S6. Can someone else corroborate? That would be awesome.
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