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Everything posted by Klothilde

  1. Yes but how is this helping DQ maintain a spread of $2? Sometimes I get the impression that the CNs also compete among themselves, that it's not only about crushing foreign competition.
  2. Tongwei issuing a convertible to bring capacity up to 140kT. Jus sayn. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190318/969427.shtml
  3. Good Lord the weekly commentary at the three price index sites (pvinsights, energytrend, pvinfolink) have all turned bearish. I can handle one or two, but three is too much. "...In terms of the subsequent overall market trend, in the next 1-2 months, the market will enter into the first low season of this year..." https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20190314-13519.html https://www.pvinfolink.com/post-view.php?ID=208 http://pvinsights.com/
  4. Well the transcript is out and Philip Shen got us the answers to our questions. The extra revenue was from Chonqing inventory sell-off of non-poly crap like ingots and poly-blocks. They seemed to have sold off everything so 2019 will be clean. And the subsidies are basically tax returns which will continue to varying degrees over the next years always in Q4. They also give some good info on production mix and prices which will help to pinpoint EPS over the next quarters I think: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4248446-daqo-new-energy-corp-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-q4-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
  5. Kudus to you, you were quite accurate both on gross profit and spread! Most of the profit came from a $12.5M subsidy payment from local gov.
  6. I was just posting the information. I'm a fan of Longi and Daqo but not of JKS. They haven't grown organically but at the expense of the balance sheet and profitability. Imho it won't end well for shareholders. The graph here on their free cash flow evolution says it all: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-23/china-solar-stocks-are-rallying-on-beijing-s-policy-support
  7. JKS booked out until H2 and expanding capacity 10-20%: https://menafn.com/1098223156/China-plans-to-sustain-solar-growth-with-its-new-policy
  8. I recall reading that the recent rise in mono-PERC cell prices had to do with deadlines for the top runner program but I don't know what the timing was exactly. Regardless, it looks like the margins for high efficiency are coming down again. According to this digitimes article there will be 130GW of PERC cell capacity installed by year end: https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20190305PD218.html
  9. energytrend says demand is weak: https://www.energytrend.com/pricequotes/20190307-13440.html
  10. Luckily GCL has a track record of fuc*ing up things (e.g. FBR), so I'm not overly worried at this point. I don't think this will happen overnight, and besides CdTe is set to put up a good fight as well.
  11. This latest poly industry snapshot from guangfu talks about the poly market bottoming out in Q2: http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190304/966258.shtml
  12. OMG I just noticed that I already had a Q4 estimate back in November. Here's my update. I've just posted in on estimize. OMG I'm the only one forecasting a loss. It's so exciting to be competing against WS names like Philip Shen. Wish me luck you guys! Volume sold: 7200T ASP: $9.8/kg cost: $8.7/kg Gross: $8.3M OPEX&NI: $11.2M EPS: -$0.18 before adjustments P.D. anybody else have an estimate?
  13. Now this is interesting: GCL-Poly developing peroskite solar cells https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20190305PD213.html
  14. Should we start taking shots at Q4 EPS or is it still too early?
  15. The thing is they haven't announced any project sales yet that will be recognized as revenue in Q1. And we are already 2/3 into the quarter... Now on the module side I don't see their Q1 ASP above 27 cts because mono-PERC has been selling at 26-27cts for quite a while now in the spot market and their multi-based modules have never quite reached the price level of mono-PERC. Assuming an ASP of 27 cts, costs at 23 cts (ambitious!) and shipments of 1500MW you get a gross of $60M. With OPEX & NI running at around $105M you still need a gross contribution of $45M from projects just to break even. And so far I don't see the project volume that is necessary... Do you understand my thinking? We still have one month for things to unfold, but the above is already circling my mind. But feel free to ask others what they think. And with others I mean people who DO care about fundamentals. Jus sayn'...
  16. I think he's referring to 2018 and their FY GM of 17.5% vs. original guidance of 22-23% in Dec. 2017. I don't know all the reasons, they had some extra costs in Q4 to finish the projects on time, but that's only one of several reasons probably. On a positive note revenue came very close to the lower end of guidance, EPS within the guidance range, and net cash above guidance. However I think pointing out their GM miss is like searching for a hair in the soup, as they say in my country. Good thing the CNs don't give you GM guidance because then you would find the whole wig in the soup.
  17. Also if CSIQ guides for a loss in Q1 then its share price could come down a little bit. That could happen if module ASP drops significantly to 27 cents or so and if they have little revenue from projects.
  18. Ok, then there's no point in arguing with you about fundamentals because you don't look at them. Regarding CSIQ it's the fundamentals that are telling me they will be struggling to break even in 2019. More precise it's a combination of ASP decline, module-cell spread shrinking, limited project COD volumes, all coupled with a very high OPEX & NI level. I've posted the numbers some posts back. We'll get more color when they give the guidance next month. I think right then it will become apparent that 2019 will not be rosy.
  19. Yes please do update. By the way, do you have an EPS estimate for 2019 or are you relying on your gut?
  20. Yes I think there's grudge, jealousy, and anger in play here. Cuz the numbers are just beaauutiful. 😍😍😍
  21. The transcript is wrong, he said 2016 (min 41:30). Also the slides from last analcyst day say 2016.
  22. Longi raising wafer prices for the first time in ages you guys: http://m.solarzoom.com/article-121528-1.html Not quite sure how to spin it. Does this mean the PV market is warming up or does this mean input costs for module manufacturers are going up?
  23. I think 2016 is the baseline. I have them at 34 cts at baseline dropping to around 20 cts for S6.
  24. Imho that's not completely apples to apples. For starters you gotta compare forecasted EPS to forecasted EPS and while there's no 2020 numbers out yet for CSIQ the market seems to be thinking that earnings are heading down. Also bear in mind that the leverage of a company plays its part in the valuation. Means that CSIQ would be trading higher if it didn't have so much debt on balance sheet. From a PB perspective both companies (CSIQ & FSLR) are currently valued similarly at a PB ratio around 1.1 so no "injustice" there.
  25. My 17% margin is better than their Energy GM for the first nine months ( $180.5M / $1239.4M = 14.6% ). The thing with CSIQ is they only tell you the good but not the bad. They had $883M in Energy sales in Q1 at a lousy 6.1% GM. Of course it's up to the investor to figure that out. You might be overlooking that the resale value of the projects held for sale also decreases with time as the remaining PPA / FIT periods gets shortened, so the net effect is zero. Besides I see way more risk than chance in the projects held for sale. Almost half of the volume is CN plants which imo will be hard to sell given the subsidy conundrum there. Also if you isolate out the Japanese plants you will see that the expected ASP for the remainder is already horrendously low, likely near or even below cost on the balance sheet: From their latest investor presentation: "~1,148 MWp Solar power plants owned and operated, with an estimated resale value of $1.23 billion" Assuming the 92.9MW of included Japanese plants sell for an ASP of $3.4/W (total $316M) the remaining plants have an ASP of $914M / 1055.1MW = $0.87/W. Go figure what GM you can expect from this keeping in mind where and when these plants were built.
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