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Solar Investor
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Everything posted by Klothilde

  1. No commentary you guys? I'm in a cabin in the woods but it looks like they made most of earnings from forex gains, right?
  2. Good Lord I'm taking the kids on a trip till wednesday but when I'm back I will tear this article to pieces. No word on project risk in China, Mexico, etc. Be careful you guys. Didn't this guy push LDK at one point?
  3. I'll let somebody else answer because I have a horrible feeling regarding this company. I think some said earlier the largest revenue chunk of Brazil was likely going to come in when these projects are built, i.e. 2020/21.
  4. CANADIAN SOLAR SCHEDULES FIRST QUARTER 2019 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL FOR MAY 30 http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-schedules-first-quarter-2019-earnings-conference
  5. Here's GCL forecasting 25GW for China in H2: https://www.pv-tech.org/news/gcl-si-expects-china-to-install-25gw-in-h2-2019 That would put yearly installs at 5+5+25GW=35GW I'm getting a vibe that people are slooowly starting to scale back expectations for this year. Anybody else getting the vibe as well? Also I don't see prices rising yet, though you may think that they should be rising if people were stocking up for a blockbuster Q3. You know wham sayn?
  6. CANADIAN SOLAR SUBSIDIARY RECURRENT ENERGY COMPLETES SALE OF MUSTANG SOLAR PROJECT TO GOLDMAN SACHS https://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-subsidiary-recurrent-energy-completes-sale
  7. Falling like a stone you guys.
  8. Oh, just realized I'm out of cash. Wait here while I hit the ATM.
  9. They should rename everything to losses instead of earnings. Losses release, losses con call, losses per share, etc. Complete crap. Used to be mad at the Chinese for keeping the dead alive (YGE) but turns out the westerners are not a bit better. Guess we're all human LOL.
  10. I wished you were one of those punk analysts on the con calls, you would get to ask some really nasty questions.
  11. Anybody holding thru earnings? Cuz I'd be chickening out.
  12. Daqo New Energy to Announce Unaudited First Quarter 2019 Results on May 21, 2019 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/daqo-new-energy-to-announce-unaudited-first-quarter-2019-results-on-may-21-2019-300845902.html Any estimates you guys? I have them with Rev of $84.8M and EPS of $0.56 on estimize currently.
  13. Sounds like you consider FSLR overpriced because it's trading in the 60s vs CN peers who are in the 20s. Note that this divergence disappears when you factor in the companies' different net cash/debt positions and look at enterprise value. Currently FSLR trades at an EV/share of $47 which is in line with CSIQ at $48 and JKS at $54.
  14. So you are saying the market doesn't care about future earnings? I see. LOL.
  15. Well shouldn't the CNs trade well below FSLR if their EPS is set to be way less? I think you haven't realized how much the earnings power of the CNs has come down.
  16. "...And as discussed previously, we expect the majority of earnings to be in the second half of the year with Q2 close to breakeven and potentially in a loss position..." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4259374-first-solar-inc-fslr-ceo-mark-widmar-q1-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single
  17. "First Solar analyst commentary at JPMorgan JPMorgan adds First Solar to Focus List, boosts target to $72. JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster added First Solar to his firm's Analyst Focus List and raised his price target for the shares to $72 from $70. The company's Q1 results indicate it is heading toward a "strong earnings inflection" on the back of the Series 6 ramp, and this is not fully priced into the stock, Coster tells investors in a research note. He sees potential upside to 2020 earnings estimates and views First Solar as a near-term idea. Coster keeps an Overweight rating on the shares." https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2903455 You guys, here's me thinking to myself: They had -$0.6 in EPS in Q1 and for Q2 they've indicated break-even. Thus in order to meet their mid-range EPS guidance for the year of $2.5 in the second half they have to bring in $3.1, thus in average $1.55 per quarter. Given the ramp in S6 shipments and margin the split could be s.th. like $1.35 in Q3 and $1.75 in Q4. You guys get my logic? I think $1.5 - $1.75 per quarter is something completely unattainable by the CNs that are left. So why the hate towards FSLR?
  18. Well honeys the stock is up despite the heavy bashing earlier here. Let's just hope CSIQ behaves just as good after its ER. 🤪
  19. I've had my fair share of drama today with the kids so need no more. All these issues are peanuts compared to what's cooking at JKS's or CSIQ's. FSLR will make so much money over the next two years it s just obscene.
  20. Not everything is lost. There are also some good things. EPS guidance is steady. They are meeting their S6 cost targets. ASP of module backlog is constant. Vietnam 2 ramping ahead of schedule. Again, it's not as horrible as some say.
  21. I missed the con call you guys. Any improvement or still on the brink of banktruptcy?
  22. Oh there's a lot I can agree with you here. Is a cost below 20 cts in China achievable today with the latest state-of-the-art technology? Hell yes. Will we see in-house costs below 20 cts in the near-to-mid term? You bet. Does any CN company have this technology in place today to achieve fully loaded in-house cost at or below 20 cts? Not yet. All the above apply to FSLR as well, so I don't see any disadvantage. The story of FSLR succumbing to the superior cost-reduction potential of the CNs is now entering its second decade and nothing has happened. Why? And why should things change now?
  23. Hold your horses. I'm sure you're aware their in-house cost is above 20 cts, no? They can only hit 20 cts by buying 3rd party wafers and cells that are currently selling around cash cost. Prices of these components may very well head up when demand increases in H2 to a level where production cost + OPEX is covered. I'm sure GCL won't continue selling wafers below their production cost forever, or will they?
  24. Not sure, I'd guess 24-25 cts on a comparable basis.
  25. This is horrible for FSLR: "...Our module manufacturing cost in China, including purchased polysilicon, wafers and cells, decreased to $0.20 per watt in December 2018..."
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