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Everything posted by Klothilde

  1. Junkosolar found guilty of patent infringement: https://ir.jinkosolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/jinkosolar-receives-determination-german-court-patent-litigation
  2. 2019 Polysilicon EBITDA excluding €112.5M insurance compensation for 2017 Charleston accident is -7%. Q1 2020 Polysilicon EBITDA is -7%: https://www.wacker.com/cms/media/asset/about_wacker/investor_relations_2/publications_1/2020/q1/wacker_q1_2020_presentation.pdf Q1 average mono-grade spot price on PVInfolink = $9.3/kg (73RMB/kg incl. VAT) Current average mono-grade spot price on PVInfolink = $7.4/kg (59RMB/kg incl. VAT) Conclusion: Wacker is SUPER TOAST. Q2 EBITDA will be dismal. Only a matter of time and pride until they get out of the polysilicon industry.
  3. Today there are 5 big polysilicon producers in China who account for roughly 70-80% of global supply. Industry economics is now pretty much determined by the competition among them at very similar production costs of $6-7/kg and cash costs roughly $1 below that. All other polysilicon producers (i.e. tier 2 Chinese plus the international players) are pretty much insignificant at this point and have no much bearing on global prices.
  4. At an ASP of $8 their quarterly EPS is roughly $1, and at an ASP of $9 their quarterly EPS is roughly $2.
  5. Not really. RMB quotes always have 13% VAT included, that's the way prices are quoted in China. PVInsights has mono-grade in China at $7.07. That's consistent with the RMB quote if you take out the VAT: http://pvinsights.com/
  6. Depends on what you mean with "just fine". Imho the lower margins guided point to significantly lower Q2 and FY EPS compared to analyst consensus. Q2 gross $193.8M OPEX $151.4M* Net Int $15.3M EBT $27.1M NI $21.1M EPS $0.43 *$14.1M in higher shipping and +$7.4M taking out reversed bad debt provision in Q1 Now assume ASP in Q3 drops slightly to 24.0 cts and GM drops slightly to 16%. If shipments stay flat qoq at 4350MW that puts your gross at $167M and at the above cost structure you end up with zero EPS. You get it now why I'm worried sick about Junko's EPS going forward? Haven't looked at the transcript yet but if I recall correctly they didn't sound overly confident about ASP and margins in H2.
  7. Forget about the $4.3 . They are guiding lower margins for Q2 and beyond which will kill EPS. Beautifully reverting to the path of profitless prosperity.
  8. According to SEIA's latest forecast the U.S. residential PV market will need until 2022 to come back to pre-COVID levels. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/us-solar-dares-hope-for-comeback-amid-forecasts-of-full-year-18gwdc-install This picture is somehow at odds with the humongous earnings growth prospects that is factored into ENPH's current share price. Does anybody care to comment on this? Does SEIA have it wrong? Will ENPH grow earnings outside the U.S. or outside residential? Looks like irrational exuberance to me at the moment.
  9. That's not the point, it's not about technology! It's about the looming danger that Jinko's executives will take the company private for a low price and re-list in China at a high price. That way the U.S. investor gets f***ed and the executives get rich! It happened with Trina and JA-Solar. Canadian tried to do it but didn't get the financing needed. Daqo is doing it through the back door as we speak.
  10. Yingli Green enters court restructuring in China https://www.pv-tech.org/news/yingli-green-enters-court-restructuring-in-china Finally, long overdue. This company has instilled so much pain on all of us.
  11. Good Gracious, doesn't this sound familiar??? “This will cause the stock prices of these firms to fall. The people controlling these firms will then be able to take these firms private at a very low price — to the disadvantage of American investors — and then re-list the firms in Hong Kong, or mainland China or elsewhere.” “Unfortunately, I think that money that American investors have already paid for stocks in Chinese companies — especially money that’s gone back to mainland China — is basically money that these people may never see again. But there’s not really that much you can do to protect them at this point,” he said.
  12. JinkoSolar to Report First Quarter 2020 Results on June 15, 2020 https://ir.jinkosolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/jinkosolar-report-first-quarter-2020-results-june-15-2020
  13. Well my overall thesis regarding CSIQ is that there is not much value left once you strip off the high-margin Japanese systems business. And this business is drying up quickly. Strip off the japanese high margin projects and the energy side is left with 10-15% margins. On the module side they are being hammered by mono PERC and seeing their margins dropping below 20% towards 15%. Combined that is simply not enough with OPEX and INT running at 15%+. They still have around 100MW of high-ASP Japanese projects to sweeten the numbers over the next coupla quarters but after that it doesn't look rosy if you ask me.
  14. That guidance doesn't cut it, they'll end up in the red without one-timers / adjustments: Q2 projection: Rev: $655M GM: 19.5% GP: $127.7M OPEX: $115M INT: $17M EBT: -$4M NI: $-3M EPS: -$0.05 Did somebody order toast?
  15. Horrible you guys: Trump’s Push to Kill Solar Loophole Blocked by Trade CourtRead more at: https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/trump-s-push-to-kill-solar-loophole-blocked-again-by-trade-court-kaplppm3Copyright © BloombergQuint
  16. Longi lowering wafer prices again. Horrible for First: http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200526/1075494.shtml
  17. The big question is if there's room for polysilicon prices to climb back to $8-$9/kg. If the market is balanced at the current level for the foreseeable future then DQ seems overpriced from a fundamentals point of view... Can anybody explain to me why Yahoo is still showing a consensus of $1.28 for Q2 and $9.69 for FY20 ??? P.D. Oh just saw that marketwatch has newer estimates, which also include the loss projection of Philip Shen for Q2. Can anyone recommend a free site with the latest analyst estimates? Been using Yahoo but I kinda get a feeling that their data is stale sometimes...
  18. They are throwing out horrible numbers for Q2. It's not me speaking here, it's the transcript. "...we expect to... ...sell approximately 14,500 metric tonnes to 15,500 metric tonnes of polysilicon to external customers during the second quarter of 2020..." "...And in May, we see the price continue go down to $7 to $7.20..." "...So, basically, I think Q2, the cost maybe keep the same or even slightly go up..." "...I think, going forward, interest expense will be approximately $5.5 million to $6 million per quarter run rate..." This is what I come up with for Q2, please chime in with your own numbers: ASP: $7.27/kg VOL: 15000 mt REV: $109.1M CPKG: $6.06/kg (incl. underutilization) COGS: $90.9M GP: $18.2M SG&A: $8.9M R&D: $1.7M INT: $5.75M TAX: $0.45M NI: $1.3M EPS: $0.09 For the haters among you please note that Philip Shen recently updated his Q2 EPS estimate on estimize to -$0.03, i.e. he is even forecasting a loss in Q2 now.
  19. Barely breaking even in Q2 according to my model, just sayin'...
  20. See? Why didn't you trust me? Good Lord, they posted $2.57 in EPS.
  21. Actually I found a terrific correlation between DQ`s quarterly ASP and the quarterly spot average on PVIL (taking into account the mono/multi mix). And DQ's quarterly ASP has been consistently 10-20 cents lower than the corresponding spot average on PVIL, so I don't buy the premium mumbo jumbo. Based on PVIL DQ's ASP in Q1 should be $8.8/kg, resulting in a record spread of $2.72 if their cost is $6.1 as guided. Their EPS in Q1 will be humongous. However given the recent polysilicion price crash their calculated Q2ASP to date is around $7.7, and if prices stay where they are the full quarter ASP may be around $7.3 or less. Would need to crunch the numbers to see if this means a loss but it for sure points to a heavy EPS hit.
  22. "...For overseas markets, polysilicon prices for mono- and multi-Si wafer have spiraled downwardly alongside Chinese prices, with the average price sitting at USD 6.9/kg and USD 5.2/kg, respectively..." https://www.infolink-group.com/en/solar/spot-price/2020-05-13-spot-price Can anybody tell me if a spread of $0.8/kg is enough for DQ to turn a profit? Looks like they'll have a terrific Q1 and a lousy Q2. Whatcha think SC?
  23. April CN module exports at 6.3GW, flat yoy but above expectations. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200515/1072528.shtml
  24. If I take the Q1 GAAP EPS of $0.50 and strip off the gain in fair value of derivatives and the income tax benefit I end up with an EPS before adjustments of approx. $0.24. In Q2 they are pointing to approx. 40% lower shipments which translates to an EPS of around $0.06. So imo if ENPH is to record $1+ in EPS for the year (without significant one-time gains) then their shipments in Q3 and Q4 will need to recover quickly to pre-corona levels and even grow significally beyond. I think this is unlikely, as we're already getting close to Q3 and from what I'm reading in the news investing in solar has to be the least of priorities right now for you folks over there... But you guys for sure know better. Whatcha think of the current investing sentiment in the U.S. for residential PV?
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