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Klothilde

Solar Investor
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Everything posted by Klothilde

  1. This is BIG: Australia FINALLY introducing a new climate policy. Things are changing for the better you guys!
  2. "Canadian Solar expects to recognize the revenue from the transaction in the first quarter of 2020." I guess that's what you wanted to know.
  3. Corona derailing 3GW in India: https://www.deccanherald.com/business/business-news/solar-projects-at-risk-of-missing-deadlines-facing-penalties-due-to-coronavirus-outbreakcrisil-805599.html
  4. Head of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association giving more details about how corona is disrupting the supply chain. He's even lowering installation forecast for China to 35-45GW. I don't know about you guys but this guy is giving me bad vibes with what he's saying. Just hope FSLR doesn't use too many CN materials. https://cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/6187066030/170c722ae01900nrcd?cre=tianyi&mod=pcpager_fin&loc=7&r=9&rfunc=21&tj=none&tr=9
  5. Coronavirus outbreak in China impacting solar industry in Korea, India and Taiwan https://www.pv-tech.org/news/coronavirus-outbreak-in-china-impacting-solar-industry-in-korea-india-and-t
  6. Haven't looked at the article but my instinct tells me there's plenty of wishful thinking in it. Yes yes yes, they've had a nice margin expansion over the last quarters, which resulted from high module ASPs coupled with a drop in upstream component prices and a migration to in-house wafering. However the trend has reversed recently, meaning that module ASPs have come down significantly while upstream has stayed flat. Means they're up for some nasty margin compression in Q1 and Q2. Why am I the only soul on earth to see this? Also keep in mind they are preparing the next secondary, so it's all about hyping up the company at this point.
  7. Corona wreaking havoc in the module supply chain: "As logistic hiccups are not going to subside any time soon, components such as junction boxes and aluminum frames take longer than expected to deliver and global module shipments are disrupted." https://en.pvinfolink.com/post-view.php?ID=302 Will this affect Q1 shipments is the question (I'm talking about the CN here of course)
  8. Hi guys, I came across the following recent doc which looks like a summary of the administrative review of the Obama tariffs. If you scroll down you'll see they determine hefty AD tariffs for the CNs. Does this mean that cell and module exports from CN to USA will continue to be tariffed heavily and thus be out of the question? I'm kinda confused because some people here have repeatedly suggested that tariffs are essentially history and that the US will be flooded with bifacial crap in no time. And this applies only to the Obama tariffs, on top you have 201 and 301. Not sure what to make of this all you guys. https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/02/10/2020-02563/crystalline-silicon-photovoltaic-cells-whether-or-not-assembled-into-modules-from-the-peoples
  9. Why on earth do we have to make this about FSLR again? FSLR is just fine, they have the cost, the balance sheet, and the ASP. What else could you possibly ask for? And what's up with that constant whining about the injustice of tariffs? When have I heard you saying that the CNs would be dead by now were it not for the zillions of cheap state financing and subsidies thrown at them over the years? Never. Either way it's not our job to whine and judge. Our job is to analyze the facts and derive insights as to where EPS and SPs are headed!
  10. Australian large-scale PV market apparently going bust because of grid saturation issues. CSIQ fans may want to check how this will affect their favorite company since this for sure is a key projects market for them. https://reneweconomy.com.au/were-out-big-contractor-dramatically-quits-australian-solar-sector-33796/ https://reneweconomy.com.au/wind-solar-projects-warned-of-seven-year-delays-in-victoria-nsw-36095/
  11. Good Gracious it's happening. OCI shutting down their Korean plants and taking 50kt off the market. https://pulsenews.co.kr/view.php?year=2020&no=143783
  12. You are totally missing the big picture here. The thing is that Tongwei is just one of five Chinese polysilicon gorillas expanding. All five are trying to establish themselves as numero uno and displace the other ones. The other thing is that in a world were polysilicon consumption per watt comes down every year the absolute polysilicon demand growth is limited even despite healthy PV market growth. Check out page 11 and page 20 on today's OCI release to get the big picture. Cheers. https://www.oci.co.kr/eng/sub/investment/ir_view.asp?idx=669&pageNo=1
  13. Good Gracious, Tongwei expanding poly capacity to 290kt. When will this end. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/tongwei-investing-us2.86-billion-in-new-30gw-solar-cell-manufacturing-hub-i
  14. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbdjrgLFMM4
  15. First Solar, Inc. to Announce Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial Results and 2020 Financial Guidance on February 20, 2020 Analcyst consensus for 2020 EPS is $3.54. What if they guide higher you guys.
  16. Corona wreaking havoc on the PV supply chain in China. Mandatory work stoppages may affect JKS and CSIQ but not FSLR. Glass prices may go up which is bad for anybody planning to ship bifacial to the U.S. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/coronavirus-expected-to-impact-solar-industry-supply-chain-roth-capital
  17. Japan awarding peanuts in last auction: https://www.pv-tech.org/news/japans-awards-just-39.8mw-in-fifth-solar-auction Canadian employing 235 people in Japan, including 50 managers (p.108): http://www.canadiansolar.cc/fileadmin/user_upload/media/Canadian_Solar_Sustainability_Report_2018_en.pdf
  18. Dutch grid getting saturated with PV: https://www.pv-tech.org/news/dutch-pv-braces-for-fresh-grid-connection-limits-after-record-2019
  19. China slashing PV subsidies in 2020 by 50% to 1.5B RMB. Everybody expected 1.75B RMB. Horrible. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-23/china-aims-to-halve-subsidy-budget-for-new-solar-plants-in-2020
  20. One has to be very careful with generalizations. You cannot just simply state that "the Chinese" are selling at cash cost. While this applies to many players in many sectors of the value chain Longi is definitely making good cash with mono wafers. Coincidentally in some of my previous analysis I identified the mono wafer step as pretty much the last bastion where profits are currently made. However I think this may change quickly as capacity expansion is likely to wipe out any excess profits here as well over the next months. Very sad if you don't have any protected market. 😞
  21. Jinko losing in Qatar: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/01/20/total-and-marubeni-win-qatars-800-mw-solar-tender/ Winning bid at $0.66/W, just sayn'.
  22. Terrific! No wonder module prices are at all time highs!
  23. Oh it would be great if we had been underestimating the market by 30% but I'm sure that's not the case. AC wattage is commonly used in some countries when dealing with individual projects where the peak AC wattage at the interconnection point is more important for grid integration purposes than the DC nameplate rating of the modules. When looking at overall market installation figures the DC nameplate rating is usually applied. I suspect EIA throws out an AC figure because their database is an aggregation of AC project power ratings reported to the grid operators. Check out the SEIA / WM U.S. market reports to see for yourself whether they use AC or DC: https://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report-2019-q4
  24. China extending tariffs on U.S. and Korean polysilicon: https://renewablesnow.com/news/china-extends-duties-on-us-korean-solar-polysilicon-for-5-years-684065/
  25. But what if FSLR gives a juicy EPS guidance during the next con call? And what if the CN2 guide lower margins in Q1? Ever thought of that? Because it will be the Chinese selling for 23 cents in no time and not FSLR. Just picking your brain here.
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