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Everything posted by Klothilde

  1. Coronavirus Crushing Global Forecasts for Wind and Solar Power https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-crushing-global-forecasts-wind-172228562.html I get a vibe here that U.S. residential solar is particularly affected, you guys with U.S. residential-centric stocks be careful now. "...Residential U.S. Solar Morgan Stanley projects American residential-solar volumes may plummet 48% in the second quarter. And the pain will linger. Analysts at the investment bank estimate year-over-year declines of 28% and 17% in the third quarter and fourth quarter, respectively. It’s not just lockdowns slowing sales of rooftop panels. Morgan Stanley said the industry is being hurt by a slump in housing starts and by consumers indicating they may postpone or cancel home renovations..."
  2. One thing I find interesting is they say demand is mostly down in the residential segments in Europe and U.S. while utility seems to be affected little. This bodes well for FSLR and not so good for residential-centric companies such as RUN and ENPH.
  3. Oh, I see somebody has started shorting the company... 😁 But you are right. With this wording you don't even have to read between the lines...
  4. It is not my intention to scare anybody, but the recent PVInfolink write-up gives me vibes of weak Q2 demand because of corona. Just posting this as food for thought because we've been hearing from some companies out there that everything is fine. Make up your own mind. Let's see if we can get more info or vibes from the CSIQ con call later, wonder whether their voice will be clear or whether it will be trembling. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200326/1058168.shtml "...The second quarter will become an empty window for overseas demand..."
  5. Good Gracious, Corona to slash german GDP by 7 - 20% according to one of the main economic research institutes: https://en24.news/c/2020/03/economy-virus-crisis-costs-germany-730-billion-euros-say-researchers.html Are there any estimates yet for the U.S.? That's what happens when you eat bat soup instead of chicken soup.
  6. CN Feb module exports collapsing you guys: http://m.solarzoom.com/article-137768-1.html Please keep in mind that Jan was already horrible. Make your own conclusions you guys!
  7. What if mono-PERC cells are currently being sold at cash cost because of oversupply? Then your theory crumbles like a cookie. Ok so now it's back to today instead of the future. Are you trying to drive me nuts or what? What about the "you are doing it again" of a few seconds ago? Anyhows, the Q1 CPW derived from the guidance does not reconcile with your suggested 17-18 cts of internal CPW, rather with 20-21 cts at best.
  8. Actually I was quoting you in this post from feb 28: https://solarpvinvestor.com/topic/21-jinkosolar-jks/page/105/?tab=comments#comment-101369 You say you are seeing them manufacturing mono PERC at 18 cts. In my brain this registers as an indication for current cost and not future cost. Or is my english that crappy? Well anyhows thanks for clarifying that 18 cts is not current cost but some day somewhere just in West Side Story. I was getting nervous there for a second.
  9. Looking at the Q4 numbers I think your estimate is too low. They suggested in the con call that 6% of their revenue was multi wafers sold around 5% GM. If you back out those numbers you're left with modules sold at a blended ASP of $0.284 with a blended CPW of $0.230. Don't think your estimate above reconciles with this blended CPW, even when factoring in a large chunk of U.S. shipments with associated tariff cost (non-china production). Could you help me either reconciling or adjusting your estimate upwards? Thx
  10. BNEF cutting global solar demand forecast because of corona: https://www.pv-tech.org/news/bloombergnef-cuts-global-solar-demand-forecast-on-coronavirus-concerns
  11. The market is smelling a rat and is not reacting favorably, especially compared to the other solars. Has anybody listened to the con call and have an idea what may be going on??
  12. Not all that glitters is gold (ancient Chinese proverb). Be careful you guys.
  13. JinkoSolar to Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Results on March 13, 2020
  14. Daqo New Energy to Announce Unaudited Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2019 Results on March 11, 2020
  15. Well they are just reacting to the short-seller report and trying to support the share price ahead of the planned secondary. They even want you to believe this is about a classical share repurchase. "I believe that this share repurchase demonstrates my confidence in our growth strategy and long-term prospects," said Mr. Li They will be back to profitless prosperity in no time, read my lips.
  16. I don't see why this is bad news for FSLR. This article suggests that bifacial Si is more competitive than monofacial Si and nothing more. It suggests a migration from monofacial Si to bifacial Si just like we experienced in general from multi to mono. Also don't be fooled by the numbers. If your gain of 12% is offset with higher CAPEX and OPEX of 10% then your lcoe gain is a mere 2%. Meh. When it comes to First think 21 cts dropping 13% a year with a 12GW backlog at an ASP of 34 cts. That's your nutshell there. Hope you're not allergic to nuts.
  17. I just noticed a newsclip on the PVInsights homepage talking about Junko winning a mono-PERC module bid in China for 20.5 cents/W. This got me worried because it's slightly below Firstes production cost. Here's the excerp: "...Jinko solar bids 40MW module orders with the lowest price at 0.205/Wp, delivered by Mid-March On February 11, 2020, China Bank Development Energy (CDB) released the result of the auction of two 20MW high-efficiency mono PERC modules with 400Wp+ for the 40MW solar project located in Yongning Ningxia, and..." http://pvinsights.com/ Here's corroborating info on guangfu. The winning price is 1.625 yuan/W which indeed is 20.5 cts/W ex VAT: http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200219/1044752.shtml http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200225/1047469.shtml Does anybody want to speculate how high the gross margin associated with that bid could be? Now elsewhere we got a hint that Junko's exports could be weak in Q1. If you add to this this info that inside China they are selling for extremely low prices, would it be reasonable to conclude that margins may possibly take a hit in Q1 and Q2?
  18. Tongwei's Leshan Phase II polysilicon project signing ceremony. 35kt, construction start Mar 2020, commissioning Sep 2021. Look how cute they all look in their corona masks! http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200228/1048924.shtml
  19. Corona disrupting polysilicon production in Xinjiang. Just sayn'. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200226/1048014.shtml "...second, polysilicon enterprises in Xinjiang are restricted by insufficient supply of raw and auxiliary materials and poor logistics. , The operating rate further reduced..." "...third, the supply of raw and auxiliary materials in short supply, prices rose sharply, and the cost of polysilicon production increased accordingly..." Here's corroboration that the price of metallurgical silicon is spiking: http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-238.html Could someone please connect the dots and tell us how all this will affect Daqo's Q1 and Q2 earnings please??
  20. So will CN earnings in Q1 and Q2 suffer or are they immune?
  21. January CN module exports down 35% yoy. Jinko down 47% yoy. February looking horrible because of corona. Just sayn'. http://m.solarzoom.com/index.php/article/136805
  22. Think track record. Since 2006 they have delivered an average yearly cost reduction of around 13%. I can understand that a year-end exit cost of 21-22 cts/W for S6 with a future cost reduction rate in line with the historical average must be painful for you. Hard to argue an imminent collapse of the company with that. And it gets worse when you think of the 12GW backlog sold for an ASP of 34 cts. I'm not going to calculate the margin out of mercy.
  23. One example to show you how efficiency increase and BOM cost reduction act as independent drivers. Let's say FSRL spends $20 per module on glass. For a 400W module that's $0.05/W. Imagine that they manage to reduce the glass cost per module to $14 per module (supplier switching, co-location, insourcing, volume purchasing), i.e. by 30%. Parallel to that they drive module wattage up to 500W, which is an independent cpw reduction of 20%. The new glass cost per watt is $0.05/W*0.7*0.8=$0.028/W, i.e. 44% below original. I'm sure that's how the slide is meant. Your suggestion that they built a double counting into that slide because the efficiency impact is baked into the other levers implies they are either dumb beyond belief or purposely misleading investors, which I think is highly unlikely. Also keep in mind they are guiding around 10% in S6 cpw reduction for 2020 alone, which is the magnitude in cost savings you came up for the three year period.
  24. Well we know when it comes to First we tend to see things slightly different. (From Q4 ER) Module Rev = $661.4M Module adj. GP ex ramp & shutdown cost = $174.8M Module adj. GM = 26.4% Module Vol. sold based on ASP of $0.34 = 1945MW S4/S6 split = 500MW S4, 1445MW S6 CPW S4 = $0.30/W (based on 17%GM and $0.36/W backlog ASP @ dec 2018) see below* CPW S6 resulting from the above = $0.233/W Based on their indication of a 5% cost step down from Q3 to Q4 (Q4 2018 presentation) and given that Q4 S6 sales volume contains 800MW of modules produced in Q3 (Q3 con call) I assume a further 1.5 pennies cost reduction for a year end production cost exit rate of 21-22 cents. Now regarding the cost reduction potential slide it goes without saying this is rough and not to scale, which they made explicit in writing and saying (see footnote on that slide). Also my indication of 50% is meant rough. The point is that FSLR is headed for a significant cost reduction over the next years. This is in stark contrast to your repeating doomsday scenarios that imply steep cost reductions for the CNs and mostly flat costs for FSLR over the coming years. I think you your calcs don't capture the compounding nature of the cost levers. If efficiency gains save 14%, BOM reduction 30%, and yield increase 3%, then the compound effect is 0.86*0.7*0.97=0.58 or 42% cost savings. Again, this is rough so no point in dissecting to the third decimal. Based on a 21.5 cents S6 2019 exit rate the above would bring them down to 12.5 cents exiting 2022. Combining that with a 12GW backlog at an ASP of 34 cents I see very good prospects for the company going forward both in terms of competitiveness and profitability. Who cares if they hit 14 cents and not 12.5, that doesn't change the picture. *Mark Widmar, 2019 guidance call, Dec. 11 2018: "...The other thing that we said is that we’re still selling through Series 4 and we are happy with the margin realization on Series 4. But again, we pointed to that to be in kind of the mid-teen – mid-to-upper teen, so that’s going to also say that, that number is below the 20% and that’s 2 gigawatts of our volume..."
  25. They have S6 at 21-22 cts (including shipping and warranty) and just laid out a path for 50% cost reduction until 2022. In the words of Greta: How dare you.
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