Jump to content

Mark

Solar Investor
  • Content Count

    494
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    22

Everything posted by Mark

  1. Mark

    Solar News

    I'm glad you were able to parse through that and understand.. i read the story 3 times this morning and still don't feel like I have much 'light shed' on my understanding of it and its effects.
  2. So good old Goldman Sachs once again raises. Buy to Conviction Buy (they REALLY mean it this time and PROMISE not to sell it off this time) and from $64 -> $75. A lot must have changed for them in a few weeks. What, they're upgrading FSLR every month this year? What's next "Strong Conviction Buy" with $85 target?
  3. Mark

    Solar News

    This doesn't really belong on the forum, but kinda does... anyone have any experience with Mission Solar panels? We're looking to finally go solar and a local company pitched these as a great option for us. Anyone have any opinions on quality?
  4. I think JKS has contracts locked in, but CSIQ didn't make it sound like things would be promising. I don't specifically remember on the call if he was asked how far out they're locked in, but got the feeling they're largely doing the low volume sales to keep decent pricing power. With Jinko being volume, guessing they're booked farther into 2019. Did I read somewhere they were booked for through 2019? Or 1H19? Certainly not sold out until 2021 or whatever. But I do agree with you, for me, its all about trading this year... I can see $60 for FSLR in the near term, but not much more until this time next year, assuming things stay on track.
  5. At least for the next few quarters, they won't have pricing pressures the CNs will... contracts are locked in. And assuming no cancellations/re-negotiated prices, as Klothilde said, into 2020 too. I added on the dip today, but just looking for a short trade... still holding plenty in long term.
  6. Mark

    Solar News

    80% PV subsidy cut from last year? https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20190320PD207.html
  7. See? Klothilde can post something upbeat about a CN solar. Not even a comment about oversupply coming later in the year with them, Longi, etc all ramping up.
  8. Mark

    Solar News

    Secondly, we are lowering our gross margin guidance by 50 basis points to a revised range of 19.5% to 20.5% as a result of higher expected ramp costs. Offsetting the decrease in gross margin is a $15 million reduction to start-up costs within our operating expense guidance. The increase in ramp costs and offsetting decrease in start-up costs are result of the earlier-than planned started production at our second Vietnam factory.
  9. Ok, so that went the opposite of what I was expecting (as usual?)... indeed I did sell the rest of my trading shares. And as a result I no longer have a balance on any credit cards or home equity loan... a nice fat profit for me. Thanks, market manipulators. Head spinning a bit on this one. Now run above 60 so I can unload some more shares ok?
  10. Baird analyst Ben Kallo noted First Solar Q4 results missed consensus but he said it was due to higher than expected ramp and EPC costs in the quarter. He noted the company maintained its guidance. He said the company has effectively sold out of capacity through the end of 2020 at what he believes are favorable average selling prices. Kallo reiterated his Outperform rating and $75 price target on First Solar shares.
  11. First Solar price target lowered to $70 from $75 at JPMorgan. JPMorgan analyst Paul Coster lowered his price target for First Solar to $70 citing the company's "lackluster" Q4 results and Q1 outlook. First Solar's 2019 earnings outlook of $2.25-$2.75 will be heavily back-end loaded in the year owing to the cost of ramping Series 6, Coster tells investors in a post-earnings research note. However, he thinks $3.00-$3.50 of earnings per share is "easily attainable" next year and that the company's revenue visibility stretches out to 2021 and could extend into 2023 by the end of this year. The analyst reiterates an Overweight rating on First Solar, which remains his top Alternative Energy pick.
  12. Yeah, I'll be taking a hit tomorrow on my trading shares. I sold about 1/3 of my position today before the close. Will sell another third tomorrow, at least, and maybe the whole position. My only problem is I have some 'hold' shares north of 60 which apparently will be sitting there and hopefully be worth something more than 70 bucks in late 2020? Assuming of course we don't have a recession in there to trash the whole market or technology doesn't change or ASPs don't fall farther or there isn't a fire in the Ohio plant.... dunno, lots of "if"s on this slow growth, high risk train. Maybe I'll wake up fresh and less cynical.
  13. I have similar feelings. Capacity constrained for what seems like 5 years and benefits coming not until Q3/Q4... can't see why anyone would be eager to buy this until they finally show that S6 is cooking and margins are stable or rising and this S6 story is in full swing. I don't have much trust in the story at this point. I also can't see where the growth comes from when they're fully booked and still ramping. The Chinese can scale up quickly and grow fast. FSLR seems like I'm holding a high risk savings account right now, rather than something that has the possibility of actually growing. The thing could be stuck in a 40-50 range for a year is how I feel. The call didn't make me feel much different.
  14. Mark

    Solar News

    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/02/20/china-stirs-the-pv-world-by-preparing-to-shift-to-auction-mechanism/
  15. So was Phil Shen just helping steal shares from the hands of the non-believers Friday? Glad he didn't get any of mine on Friday, though I did ring the register 3 times today. Hoping for a CSIQ repeat, so trading with 1/3 of my position, holding the rest. Analysts... gotta hate them.
  16. I'm not gonna say his checks aren't valid and these aren't factual concerns, but ever since he kinda flipped on the company on that last call... I dunno, what soured with Shen? He clearly went from FSLR bull to bear rather abruptly last year at some point.
  17. First Solar analyst commentary at Roth Capital First Solar price target cut to $60 from $65 at Roth Capital. Roth Capital analyst Philip Shen maintained a Buy rating on First Solar but cut his price target to $60 ahead of the company's February 21 earnings report. In a research note to investors, Shen says he sees some risk to shares heading into the report, as checks with multiple contacts suggest S6 bins may be ~5W lower-than-expected, and S6 manufacturing throughput may slower-than-expected. Sheh predicts the challenges could represent a ~1%-4% headwind to 2019 S6 margins. Though he believes this is solvable, and says the impact to long-term value could be modest, though he sees the potential for near-term share weakness. Read more at: https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2865355Read more at: https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2865355
  18. I'll add that the 13Fs that have been trickling in for FSLR have been very sexy. Some serious purchases last quarter on the weakness.
  19. First Solar risk/reward remains favorable into Q4 report, says Baird Baird analyst Ben Kallo previewed First Solar's Q4 report and he believes the risk/reward setup is favorable heading into the results. The analyst said he would be a buyer into the report as he thinks a recovering macro environment in the solar space could improve sentiment and drive share appreciation. Kallo said it remains a top pick and he maintained his Fresh Pick designation while reiterating his Outperform rating and $75 price target on First Solar shares.Read more at: https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2864736
  20. Nah, not bitter at all. In fact I've been rather excited and bullish since Christmas, having dug out of my CSIQ hole and made a handsome profit at the same time. It's just the last time we heard from you, DQ was going to $100 or something and it promptly went to $20. So you're a bit of a contrarian indicator. Longer term, I agree though and ain't going anywhere... party is just starting.
  21. Have any earnings preview/predictions here on FSLR, Klothilde?
  22. So you're saying that we're at the top right now.
  23. Unloaded all of mine, except for a big bunch o' shares in my wife's 401k. I'm going to trade the heck out of it this year. But not gonna hold it for extended periods. Now if I can just get out of this FSLR garbage bag I'm holding, I'd be a happy guy.
  24. Mr. Shen raises his price target to $20: https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Roth+Capital+Upgrades+JinkoSolar+Holding+Co.%2C+Ltd.+(JKS)+to+Buy/15072734.html
  25. So the Chairman snagged an additional 4,628,089 shares last quarter eh? And an additional 3,085,400 for Chen Kangping and 1,534,503 for Discover Value Fund? Are we sniffing out much higher stock price to come or is a go private offer coming soon?
×
×
  • Create New...