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Mark

Solar Investor
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Everything posted by Mark

  1. Mark

    Solar News

    https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/12/bifacial-beats-trumps-tariffs/ Always thought one day I'd get my money back on some FSLR shares I had at $70. I dumped every share I owned today at 61.50, so that'll never happen. This makes yesterday's strange attempted breakout look like some insider knew what was gonna happen. Now, to see how the analysts spin this and twist it up and spit it back out to us to move the stocks. I added to my CSIQ today.
  2. Well, I"m no longer a FSLR shareholder... made more than i lost overall, but i don't have the stomach for this.
  3. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2019/06/12/bifacial-beats-trumps-tariffs/
  4. Congrats to you as well. Right there with you, aiming for 22-23 as well. Not sure how patient I'll be with that target, however, given Trump's antics and effects on the market. I also made a little extra cash on a day trade this morning too. Sold it too early, but sticking to my spreadsheet trading given the trade war nonsense.
  5. They had also mentioned the possibility of a 10% rise in module ASPs in the back end of the year once China ramps up. They were at .30 in Q1, but noted that they had slid a little (not sure if they gave a number, he was kinda mumbling or my ears aren't what they once were), but if we're to assume they're around 28 cents now, that 10% increase later in the year due to potential shortages, that would put them back around 30/31 cents.
  6. I was going to dump my remaining shares before the close, but I like this deal. Everyone's so bearish, maybe time to hang onto those shares and roll the dice on some positive forward guidance. Though this is clearly gambling at this point. Only positives I can see are institutional support and this supply agreement. But maybe all the excuse big money needs to run this up toward 19 tomorrow.
  7. Safe to say everyone here is bearish on Chinadian except for MVA?
  8. Just now seeing this from yesterday, but Shen at Roth put a buy and $24 target on this? Some of his recent FSLR calls over the last year and now this make me wonder. I hope he's right and knows who has been holding the stock price up and knows their future intent, as I still own shares from 2014 I'd love to get break even on.
  9. Another hobo sighting: Evaluating Canadian Solar's Q4 2018 Earnings Selloff https://seekingalpha.com/article/4265136
  10. Might they raise FY guidance in light of Mustang and Brazil? Not saying it'll be a huge raise, but do you numbers junkies think its possible? Or perhaps that was all factored in.
  11. Mark

    Solar News

    So Schroder Investment Management Group was doing some serious buying in Q1 eh? Bought 3,121,442 shares of Jinko. (New position) And 2,761,958 of CSIQ. (New position) FSLR got some love with an additional 345,318 to give them a total of 516,571 there.
  12. Hmmmm, ok then. Flush tomorrow? Odd. Someone has their back or someone is ready to yank the rug in a big way.
  13. Only down 3% at the moment on nearly 3M shares is strange indeed. When's the flush coming?
  14. Schroder Investment Management opened a new position in CSIQ in Q1. 2,761,958 shares or 4.762% of the company, the 4th largest shareholder.
  15. I don't hold any CSIQ over 20.70, so no long term losses for me. I'm strictly on a 2019 schedule and I'm still up quite a bit for 2019. I'm trying to balance selling for loss vs. putting solar on my roof for that credit vs. waiting a few quarters to see if they can turn this around in 2020 as they expect. I've shaved half my CSIQ trading over the last week, but still hold more than I'd like. But I feel like this 18-18.67 area is no-man's land. Just not sure how much farther down it goes. I also don't see a big upside move anytime soon, but I was really hoping to get somewhere in the mid 19s to just dump the rest. Alas, not today!
  16. Right there with you, felt like I've been in the groove all year so far. Until this week, ha. Thankfully I've got enough profits to absorb this (sold 1/3 of my CSIQ today) and still be up on the year. But this would be even easier if this trade nonsense would come to an end. It's hard to trade on tweets and lies.
  17. Mark

    Solar News

    Pretty generous response to SPWR earnings... really buying into the 2H19 turnaround story I guess. Trimmed 1/3 of my CSIQ position this morning... its been a good year for me trading, but I blew this trade bad. Holding the rest for now in case the street decides to believe the 2020 turnaround in CSIQ.
  18. I'm looking to lighten my load, but confess to being stuck in a lousy trade at the moment thanks to the orange clown and tariff selloff. So I may be stuck in here taking a gamble on a pop. Q1 is gonna be bad, we all know that... so how much does Qu talk up or down the rest of the year given CN policy. The currency headwind they made so much about on last call seems to be calming as MVA pointed out, but still, there's no rush to get in here. I've seen nothing good in the 13F/D filings. I mean Lion Point is protecting their investment, but they can only do so much when others are dumping large positions.
  19. Argus analyst David Coleman raised his price target on First Solar to $66 and kept his Buy rating after its raised FY19 revenue outlook, saying the company is well positioned in the solar industry given its "positive cash flow, solid balance sheet, and focus on cadmium telluride technology." The analyst also believes that First Solar is attractively valued at 22.1-times his expected 2019 earnings, which is around the middle of the 4.5- to 37.7-times historical average range and below the peer median of 26.3-times. UBS analyst Jon Windham kept his Buy rating and $73 price target on First Solar after its Q1 results, saying the company's maintained guidance in spite of the Q1 earnings miss sets it up for an "aggressive sequential earnings ramp." The analyst believes that EPS growth is supported by First Solar's "ramping 3rd party Series 6 shipments" as well as declining start-up expense and expects investor sentiment on the stock to improve. Oppenheimer maintains a hold
  20. They're booking at .3x a watt on contracts into Q1 2021 per Widmar. I'll go ahead and assume its .30 or .33, but neverthless, its not in the sky is falling low 20s ASPs of the Chinese.
  21. Run while you can. I like to think how this will look a few quarters from now, given the "3 handle" on sales locked in through Q1, 2021 now that was mentioned a couple times on the call. That 3 handle on ASPs will look nice once they finally get fully ramped and all these EPS misses are a thing of the past.
  22. Mark

    Solar News

    Looks like CSIQ is digging the CN solar policy news out today. It's been my personal ATM this year. Thanks to it and FSLR, I just signed a contract to go solar on our home, finally. Always been my goal to have solar pay for solar and today its official. Going with QCells and Enphase, however, sorry Qu, just made more sense. Pretty thrilled to get some modules up on the roof next month.
  23. First Solar analyst commentary at Roth Capital First Solar price target raised to $75 from $60 at Roth Capital. Roth Capital analyst Philip Shen raised his price target for First Solar to $75 from $60 ahead of quarterly results. The analyst continues to see upside to the stock as he expects the tight module supply in the U.S. to sustain through 2019 and support bookings in 2021 and beyond. Eventually, Shen expects bookings beyond 2020 to support further capacity expansion, though this will likely come into focus in the second half of 2019 and does not expect an announcement on the Q1 call. He reiterates a Buy rating on the shares.
  24. Mark

    Solar News

    I'm glad you were able to parse through that and understand.. i read the story 3 times this morning and still don't feel like I have much 'light shed' on my understanding of it and its effects.
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