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Showing content with the highest reputation since 09/21/2018 in all areas

  1. 3 points
  2. 2 points
    New article just out: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/daqo-energy-begins-pilot-production-103000440.html So here's the business case, according to the article: production cost to decrease to $7.50/kg by end of Q1 19, to $6.80/kg by end of Q1 20. Klothilde, what does your number-crunching say about profitability at these cost levels?
  3. 2 points
    I find the Poly market segment and DQ going through what looks like a 2 to 3 year re-adjustment. This is something this specific segment has not done as it has been relatively young compared to the wafer / cell / module segments. There is cloudiness in the Poly segment of the industry as it looks to re-allocate manufacturing capacity and costs. DQ itself has recently announced writedowns and an exiting of wafer manufacturing. They are taking $20M on 500MW. I am not certain that covers the whole costs. As for the segment, there is a ton of new cpacity coming online that is all under $6/Kg based on analysis. This capacity is coming online now and forever on. The poly segment has indicated that the $12/KG capacity is going to be shut down near term due to not being competitive. The next question is when there is a bunch of sub $6/Kg poly production what will the ASP be like? I might speculate it would be $7-8 +/-. That would then put the capacity that has costs in in the $7-$9/KG at risk of write downs or shutdowns over the next few years. DQ will have over 30+KMT of that capacities production targets online by the end of the year. This would lead me to believe that this current capacity may be written down at some point in the next 3 years. This ASP adjustments and the potential of additional adjustments in the next few years creates a cloud in the Poly industry. That cloudiness has happened in every other segment of the Solar industry several times. To quote Mark Cuban, for that reason I am out.
  4. 1 point
    Thanks for sharing. Imho this is the best analysis so far supporting the thesis of a polysilicon re-adjustment to lower price levels. The article points to a price level of $8.5/kg supporting a run-rate of 110GW of installation at the end of 2019. The supply stack suggests this price can easily fall to near $7/kg for a slightly lower demand of around 100GW. No point in regurgitating the implications for DQ EPS and PPS based on the above, you guys know my opinion.
  5. 1 point
    Chinese solars coming in with Q3 express reports. No surprise earnings are down and impacted by the new deal https://www.pv-tech.org/news/impact-from-chinas-solar-deployment-cuts-start-hitting-companies-q3-financi
  6. 1 point
    Nice article on the Si capacities costs and demand of new vs legacy Poly plants. It also covers some demand/price suggestions a bottoming near especially based on wether GCL winds up shuttering the older capacity. It is suggesting that Si/watt is falling to 3.27grams for 2019 due to moving to more efficient mono, thinner diamond wires black silicon etc. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20181019/935243.shtml Due to the production capacity of 60,000 tons of domestic Tongwei shares and 50,000 tons of Xinjiang GCL in November and December, even if all the current three types of capacity are 90,000 tons, the total amount is increased, so for those high For enterprises with electricity costs, the current industry situation is already very clear: the price of silicon materials will not pick up in the future, and continuing to maintain production will only increase losses. The early withdrawal of such capacity is a responsibility for protecting themselves and investors, and is a wise decision to judge the situation. The amount of silicon produced by the number of components will continue to decrease. Even assuming a global PV demand of 110 GW in 2019, the demand for silicon is only 360,000 tons. After understanding the total demand and supply, we can make a balance between supply and demand based on these data:
  7. 1 point
    256MW? Very nice. Can only mean one thing. Down we go today! https://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-partners-biosar-build-256-mwp-solar-project-total
  8. 1 point
    FSLR can only sell in the U.S. due to the Trumpian tariffs for the premium. That premium is quickly fallen. The ROW they are now not competitive. That is 20% of their shipments if I recall. As for the U.S. There is also 2.5GW of tariff free that can be imported and Sunpower can import unlimited tariff free modules. They will be getting those modules on the cheap with the ASP collapse. Now as for the ASP collapse, here is a nice link that covers the impact on foreign pricing that you can now adjust for current ASPs. https://news.energysage.com/2018-us-solar-tariff-impact-prices/ The first year was expected to have a 10-12 cent impact. based on module low and high prices.The second year it falls by 5% to a 25% tariff. It was expected that based on a 32 to 38 cent module ASP the impact would add 8-10 cents. Now the reality is that the module prices are now in the $0.24-$0.28. That places the impact at 7.2-8.5 cents for the rest of the year. Starting February 2019 the rate drops to 25% and the impact on the module drops to 6-7 cents. So the ASP will soon be $0.30-$0.35 for 2019 at most. In all probability with 2.5GW of tariff free modules to subisdize the profits, the ASP could be $0.28-$0.33 in 2019 especially when looking at Sunpowers unlimited imports. Jinko and others are ramping U.S. module manufacturing as well. They will be importing solar cells at cost or $0.09-$0.013(multi Mono). With the tarrif impacts the cost is $0.115- $0.165. That means at 12-13 cents for module processing their costs for Multi will be around $0.245 and mono at $0.275. From that the ASP will stay in that upper $0.20s to low $0.30s for ASPs. By the time the S6 lines are ramped come 2020, the tariff impact will only be 20% and if trends continue as China moves wafering to low energy regions of inner Mongolia and cheaper Si is abundant, then the cost for US manufactured will be in the $0.23-$0.26 range with an ASP under $0.30. Those Chinese imports will be almost as competitive. There is not a lot of meat on the bone for FSLR at those ASPs.
  9. 1 point
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-shares-hanwha-q-cells-155500821.html HQCL is being bought out. Big jump today.
  10. 1 point
    Dr. Qu updating on PV manufacturing cost: "I also gave a cost outlook in 2016. I was pretty accurate through Q4 2017. I was also accurate to predict that the manufacturing cost will go down to 25 cents per Watt, but I did not predict the timing right. Module manufacturing cost is reaching 25 cents per Watt in Q4 2018 for leading manufacturers, literally as we speak, rather than in Q4 of 2020 as I originally predicted." https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/breakaway-hat-trick-solar-dr-shawn-qu/
  11. 1 point
    Thank you for your more optimistic view. I did notice the high-end of poly prices holding up well on PVInsights and this piece of data bodes well for DQ and its ASP. However I cannot ignore the price trends for mono-grade polysilicon on the other two index sites (energytrend and PVInfolink) that have shown a clear erosion from around 95 RMB to currently 87-89 RMB/kg over the last two months, roughly since DQ's last con call. It was on that call that Daqo said that they expected mono-grade poly to go up from 95-96 RMB at the time of the con call to 105 RMB/kg by year end. Anyhows, there is still some market action left from here until years end. GCL and Tongwei polysilicon is expected to hit the market starting this month but on the other hand demand was forecasted to increase in China big time as well. Let's see what happens.
  12. 1 point
    China strict control takes heavy toll on PV firms, says Tongwei chairman https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20181001PD211.html
  13. 1 point
    Eh, I'm thinking maybe its about the possible corruption in China and how it may affect the Top Runner program. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/09/28/an-investigation-at-chinas-national-energy-agency-might-delay-pv-programs/
  14. 1 point
    Those fat tarfifs are not as much an impact with the Costs basis dropping like a rock. 30% on a cost basis of $0.35 was significant pushing the average ASP to around $0.45-$0.48. Now with production costs in the $0.23 and could be as low as $0.21 the dynamics change. The average ASP with freight Tarrif and Opex + profit is now at around $0.36-$0.37. That is soon to drop by a penny or 2 as the tariff gets reduced by 5% in a few months. That places the new ASP at $0.345+/- with tariffs, freight, opex and profits. Those ASP could be lower as there is 2.5GW of tariff free modules. Those modules carry another 6-8 cents in gross . That means that they can basically cut a penny or 2 off the ASP and still have decent profits from the U.S when all are blended. Slap the $0.034 on FSLRs $0.27 S4 cost basis and you are profitless and operating at a loss with their near $100M a quarter in Opex. That $0.34-$0.36 ASP is significantly down from the $0.50 you were expecting before the ASP collapse. There is good concern which Godron Johnson mentioned that FSLR might be looking at cancellations of contracts due to the ASP declines. FSLR a while back indicated 2 or 3 cent premium on a module would not kill a sale,. They are now looking at a $0.10-$0.15 swing certainly that certainly could. And we have not even discussed the ability of FSLR to compete outside of the U.S. markets where there are no tariff impacts and the ASP is sub $0.30.
  15. 1 point
    They should do quite well as they are migrating quickly from junk poly wafers to high efficiency perc and mono. The spread on Poly Perc Cells to Poly Perc Modules is $0.17 or 25% margins (0.11/0.28). The spread on Mono Perc Cells to Mono Perc Modules is $0.155 or 18.2% margins (0.147/0.302). Compare those margin potentials with the current S4 costs of $0.27 production costs for FSLR and the average Thin Film ASP at $0.265.