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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/22/2017 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    "China will stay flat in 2018 at best" (Klothilde, 6 hours ago) --- "Get ready for the cliff" (Klothilde, May 11, 2017) "the approaching China cliff" (Klothilde, May 31, 2017) "we have a China demand cliff coming up in a matter of weeks" (Klothilde, Jun 1, 2017) "I really HATE repeating myself, therefore PLEASE put your glasses on when you read. Here AGAIN": The China Cliff is coooooming "The China cliff is here" (Klothilde, Jun 21, 2017) "Looks like China cliff to me" "you can smell China cliff" (Klothilde, Jun 28, 2017) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elephant Porcelain shop https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blindness_(novel) "Polysilicon price another day up" (W20, Jun 9, 2017) "Polysilicon +8% I do not understand Why this quantitatively beautiful Enterprise is loveless. DQ neither buy Polysilicon nor sell Oil. DQ sell Polysilicon. One day maybe the market will understand these simple statements or maybe not, I don't know" (W20, Aug 2, 2017)
  2. 2 points
    Watch out for Hemlock... If there will be a deal, in the next 10 days, with 201 section rejection in exchange for Chinese poly market access for Hemlock and other US poly producers, then DQ may have a problem... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/01/12/hemlock-calls-on-trump-to-restore-access-to-the-chinese-polysilicon-market/
  3. 2 points
    Your hate and resentment are well known What can we do to heal your soul ? With an obsidian knife tear Dydo's heart and offer it to Wotan/Odin on the Altar of Sacrifices ? Sell our daughters to a television producer ? Burn us like a bonzo monk ? What can we do to heal your soul ? http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html
  4. 1 point
    For those interested in renewable ETFs, attached has holdings for each Renewable ETF com.xlsx ICLN is a preference of the choice and has yield due to yieldcos. It appears most globally diversified as well including Chinese names.
  5. 1 point
    Here is a nice article on REITs vs interest rate volatiltiy. Page 2 has a nice chart correlating the two. This might explain some of the recent slide in Realestate REITs as interest rates are being increased by the FED. https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/07/10/reits-have-complicated-relationship-status-with-interest-rates/2/#3258ea9750e0
  6. 1 point
    KARS has listed the holdings. Interesting, $2.5M market cap. https://kraneshares.com/kars/
  7. 1 point
    I REALLY doubt that. That issue is just too small to get caught up in the shutdown mess.
  8. 1 point
    Something tells me you don't like me very much. Is there anything I can change so we get along better?
  9. 1 point
    I am looking at this ETF KGRN, which may replace investing in Chinese stocks https://kraneshares.com/kgrn/ They are supposed to list KARS, which will cover the electric car companies, not just from China.
  10. 1 point
    I just took a small position in a Marijuana ETF MJX as a play on a potentially evolving market segment. For anyone interested in the segment of investing here are some etf/funds ari.cn, mcoa, mjna, mgw.v, hvst.v, blevf, hmlsf, mjx, hmmj.to, lare
  11. 1 point
    BOTZ is doing well
  12. 1 point
    Don't beat yourself up about it. You have a nice profit. Good job! Nine times out of ten, when I got greedy and tried to squeeze just a little more out of a winning position, I wound up costing myself money in the end. And kicking myself for it. Set your sets on a reasonable gain. And TAKE IT when you have it. Then go look for another good setup. If you're looking for more, consider a trading position in FSLR. Nice little pullback from yesterday's jump. And the prospect of further gains if Trump imposes tariffs, which is highly likely.
  13. 1 point
    Do you really think Trump will forego tariffs on Chinese PV panels because one US company asks him to? He didn't seem inclined to do so when the entire SEIA did. Given yesterday's comments about certain foreign countries, our "stable genius" Dipsh*t-in-Chief (sorry--I meant "Diplomat-in-Chief," of course!) will be looking to make a new headline to turn the media's attention towards. China is always a favorite target for him and his followers. I will be VERY surprised if he doesn't impose tariffs.
  14. 1 point
    Be careful with this notion. I can only recommend taking a minute to look at facts in more depth and cross-check assumptions. If you look at the market growth from 2015 to 2017 (see below) you will see that almost all the growth over the last two years came from within China, with little growth elsewhere (CAGR of 11% for non-China). Going into 2018 consensus is that the relevant non-China markets (U.S., India, Japan) are all set to shrink in 2018, so the non-China overall market will likely be flat or at best continue with little growth if emerging markets are strong enough (but which??). This means that global market growth in 2018 hinges squarely on China again. And the troubling thing with this is that growth over the last coupla years has been against all financial logic, with most of the installations still outside of the FIT regime and the FIT regime itself exhibiting a huge deficit and long payment delays: https://solarpvinvestor.com/topic/32-trading-solars/?page=3635&tab=comments#comment-95309 In a nutshell: If we want 50% overall market growth, and if non-China makes up half of the market and is expected to stay nearly flat in 2018, this means that China will have to grow 100% to 100GW despite the market there showing signs of being an unsustainable bubble. Imho China will stay flat in 2018 at best, meaning approx. flat installations globally as well (again, at best). Throw in new poly supply coming online and further strong migration to DWS and further tech progress including migration to mono-PERC and it's easy to make a case for poly oversupply with eroding poly ASPs and margins. http://www.solarpowereurope.org/reports/global-market-outlook-2017/ http://www.sunwindenergy.com/photovoltaics/new-pv-installations-approaching-100-gw-2017
  15. 1 point
    That's the way I do it these days. When a stock is near or at its high, I actually want just a small exposure. Yes, it could go higher, so a small lot of trading shares lets me participate. But you never know when the music will end--when a stock keeps making higher highs, and you're all in, when should you sell? Because when it does pull back, it can drop hard and fast, and keep dropping, so you lose most (or even all!) of your gains. And trailing stops don't work with solars--they're too volatile, especially DQ. So when a stock is at its top, I have just a small exposure. But if it pulls back, AND THERE'S NO CHANGE TO THE UNDERLYING BUSINESS CASE (that's a key caveat!), then I start buying more. The more it pulls back, the more I buy, until I hit a limit on how much of any one particular stock I want to own. Then I start selling the individual trading positions as it climbs back, so that by the time it's back at its top, I'm back to just a small exposure again. Never all in, never all out (unless I think it's overvalued--then I won't touch it; there's too many other, undervalued stocks out there). This approach has worked much better for me over the past year than my former buy-and-hold, or all-eggs-in-one-basket approaches. Of course, the past year has been a good one for stocks overall, but solars just kind of meandered, and most of my trading is still done in the solar sector (because of the volatility, which is good for this approach). And DQ is currently a good candidate. It has very high volatility, so lots of 2-3% pullbacks, and so far no change to the underlying business case (poly profits are still good). We WILL have to watch the profitability in the next year, when that additional China capacity comes on line. But for now, enjoy the ride!
  16. 1 point
    DQ did get a clear cost edge by being ahead of competition on the Xinjiang location, but others are investing massively in the poly place to be. China’s GCL-Poly is to invest RMB 5.68 billion (US$826 million) in the construction of a 60,000 tonne polysilicon production facility in Xinjiang, China. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2017/04/06/gcl-poly-investing-826m-in-construction-of-60000-mt-polysilicon-plant-in-china/ East Hope Group has invested to build a polysilicon project with annual production capacity of 120 thousand tons in Changjizhou, Xinjiang Province so far. https://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/j5cvnp/research_report Beware of upcycle exuberance..
  17. 1 point
    She is right. My background is 17 years of Ferroalloy production and trading. Ferrosilicon (met grade) is one of them. Metal oversupply happens constantly. When producer is facing oversupply and price going below production cost, there is usually two scenarios: 1) is to shut down facility, send employees home with 75% pay, continue to pay multiple payments (taxes, leases, rents, maintenance, etc) and wait until shortage of material on the market again or 2) continue producing at a loss. But that loss will be smaller than loss at idle facility. I had personally experienced at one facility 6 times what I have described. So, Yes, price can go below 12 or 7 or whatever cost is at DQ, in no time. And yes, one should expect oversupply in China as there is expected extra volumes coming online in 2018....also what is important is that Silicon price of $20/kg is only in China, the rest of the world has around 15... such situation is going to change, it can’t be like that for a long time...
  18. 1 point
    The only problem with LIT is a commodity, so like any other commodity in the past would have cycles of peaks and valleys. Try SNSR and FINX I am interested as well. I like financial tech as well as Rockwell Automation and it is listed in SNSR. I would like to invest just in battery makers as I do not like miners.
  19. 1 point
    Staying with the dividend paying slow growth companies, I have cut my Proctor and Gamble Holding in half as it is in the high range of the 70-95 that it trades in. I took a position in B&G Foods(BGS). The dividend is high >5% but according to some reports it is a low quality dividend in that it used cash flow to fund it and not just earnings. http://www.capitalcube.com/blog/index.php/bg-foods-inc-bgs-us-dividend-analysis-december-29th-2017-record-date-by-the-numbers-december-29-2017/?yptr=yahoo The stock has appreciated nicely since 2009 . Most of that was by 2012 and it peaked much higher in 2016. It has pulled back 25% off its highs in 2016. It's market cap is the low end of a mid cap range. The company has several well known brands Cream of Wheat, Ortega, Green Giant. It looks to have earnings growth of 10% for 2018 in the estimates. I am currently sitting on a portfolio of about 20 stocks in my static portfolio after rebalancing. All are dividend paying. My Trading account is around 20 stocks as well. I generally have 10-30% in cash for short term trading in stocks like solars. Total stocks are 30. Most are equally balanced. I do hold a few core stocks that has 50-100% more value. These are MSFT, ABBV,INTC,HUM,VZ,T, I had cut back on PG,DUK as I wanted a little more potential growth. The INTC appreciated quite a bit from my initial buy a few years back so I dumped 233rds of it. back in Q3 /Q4 of last year. I moved some DUK to NEE in the rebalance. Here is mu current holdings in my static and trading accounts ABBV,ABT,BCPC,BGS,BP,CI,CMCSA,CVX,DUK,FMC,GSK,HUM,INTC,JNJ,JPM,MRK,MSFT,NEE,PFE,PG,PSA, SPG,SQM,T,UN,V,VZ,WFC,WGL,WLK, WM
  20. 1 point
    Here is a nice article on Reits and that correlate interest rate spreads to performance of the Reits vs the general market. Rising interest rates is a negative on Reits performance where they track below the general markets. The fed has been raising rates the past year. That is when the current pull backs had started. The tax plan is causing the Fed to be leaning to raise interest rates faster due to potential impacts in growth of the economy from the tax cuts. This would tend to make Reits a less favorable investment vs the markets in general. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/04/110304.asp
  21. 1 point
    First Solar vs SunPower: Who Makes Better Panels for Solar Farms? https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/01/03/first-solar-vs-sunpower-who-makes-better-panels-fo.aspx I don't like this article by Travis because he doesn't factor in cost/price as decision criteria. If only efficiency is important then why not go with the super duper efficient multijunction PV panels they put on satellites? You know wham sayn?
  22. 1 point
    It was sold when I bought PSA, but it is constantly borderline to get allocated.
  23. 1 point
    consider CUBE. The cheapest of the sector, offering about 4% dividend. Considered expensive now, but if this industry is going to grow so will the price. CUBE is the stock ticker. I should add that buying under $25 as I have read is recommended.
  24. 1 point
    A 7.4% dividend yield would have provided around 11.1% return per year compounded during 7 years, not counting any equity gains. I guess buying undervalued, higher dividend stocks is a reasonable way to invest.
  25. 1 point
    I will see, they are risky investments, hence the yield level. However, I imagine they have room for equity growth. I trade too much as is, so reduction of trading could be already a plus for me. I guess holding them is the plan, and to reinvest dividend is the idea.
  26. 1 point
    Securing dividend payout for January, I have bought PK for my portfolio. My profile shows breakdown.
  27. 1 point
    Amazing run! Congrats.
  28. 1 point
    Bought some more Daqo for my mum's retirement today. This stock is so undervalued, 10 EPS for next year and trading at 50 is just silly. I'll be selling 1/3 possition at 100 and holding the rest as they lower production cost to 7.5 $/kg by 2019 I expect poly prices to remain high as the market is underestimating demand for solar. As EVs come driving along, Solar will be the king of newly installed power.
  29. 1 point
    sold my remaining DQ...probably means blast-off is imminent.
  30. 1 point
    DQ looks to be breaking out. Need the volume to pick up a little to keep it going.
  31. 1 point
    $86.42/MWhrs was the original quote in USD for the REIS of 216.12. Today that is $65.18 or a 24.15% decline. I believe that level of PPA adjustment is quite profitable knowing that the module and build costs have dropped like a rock
  32. 1 point
    Hello folks, anybody here looking into blockchain based energy p2p trading platforms and grid management tools? I spent the last couple of days reading up on it and it seems like the deal breaker for the growth of distributed renewables. I think this was the missing leg for the coming clean energy revolution, a lot of value could be created here. Here is some information in case anybody else is interested; https://www.indigoadvisorygroup.com/blockchain
  33. 0 points
    JP Morgan bought 7.7M shares ( schedule 13G filed on the 5th) and came out with the target of $15?