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Showing content with the highest reputation since 06/18/2019 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    True grid parity without subsidies with storage around 2023 in the cheapest labor countries with moderately good insolation. Target $0.60/watt installed. If $0.10 for storage, then that becomes $0.50 without storage. At 35% module cost and 65% BOS, you have a module cost in projects at of $0.175 and a BOS of $0.325. The production costs will need to be around $0.13-$0.14 to achieve profits with Opex and shipping globally. By the way those production costs are in the mid to upper range of Perovskite prices suggested by GCL($0.10-$0.15). These are my rough numbers. but this article suggests 2020-2023 in China for the first subsidy free projects though they do get reduced land fees to free land use. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/05/22/china-reveals-details-of-first-15-gw-of-grid-parity-solar/
  2. 1 point
    Big picture stuff, but helps spread the word. https://www.forbes.com/sites/enriquedans/2019/07/16/the-global-energy-map-is-changing-faster-than-youthink/#4426cab624f1
  3. 1 point
    Pretty interesting. This sort of thing will only continue. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffmcmahon/2019/07/01/new-solar--battery-price-crushes-fossil-fuels-buries-nuclear/#727b67b05971
  4. 1 point
    Here you go, straight from the horse's mouth: "...And for the Q2, the gross margin is at the mid range of 14% to 15%, it’s relatively lower than Q1. And Q1, the gross margin is pretty good and exceeding our guidance. And for the Q2, it's basically because our new capacity is still in the construction stage and will not have contributing to the profitability in second quarter..." https://seekingalpha.com/article/4272691-jinkosolar-holding-co-ltd-jks-ceo-chen-kangping-q1-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single That puts them around break-even before adjustments in Q2 on my books. A forex gain may probably put some icing on the numbers.
  5. 1 point
    Here are 11 points I have from the con call gudiance and market dynamics as of now. 1: The ASP will drop significantly in the second half due to some 3-4GW or 40-45% of their guided second half shipments being to China where high efficiency mono PERC is running 10% lower than average high efficiency mono PERC prices. 2: The CN demand is going to cause around a 1.5-2.5% lower GM due to the lower ASP even with cost reductions due to production ramps and increased high efficiency modules as a percentage. 3: The U.S. tariff ruling making double sided modules as exempt is going to create a problem for single sided modules and the ASP. It will cause the price to drop on those modules. The market is about 4GW for these double sided modules when you take away the tariff free quantity and the FSLR quantity and the SPWR exemptions. This is going to make the modules ASP drop in the US from $0.40 to low $0.30 or even upper $0.20's effectively killing and single sided module sales that are not tariff free. This is going to create issues with cost to manufacture in the new 400MW facility in the U.S as well. 4: Any swapping of single sided for double sided modules will most likely impact the ASP in renegotiated lower prices to entice the swap out of dissimilar modules. 5: The drop in the ASP from what appears to be a blended $0.28 will likely fall to mid $0.25 to $0.26 in the second half due to these dynamics above. 6: The margins should be falling from mid 16% to mid 14% due to the dynamics mentioned above will imapct earnins by some $60-$70M in gross income. It will fall from estimated $380M down to an estimated $320M+/-. 7: Opex is going to jump to some $130M+ per quarter with the 1-1.25GW of increased modules per quarter 8: Interest is going to increase by some $5-7M in the second half over the first half due to the increased debts. 9: Income before taxes is likely to drop from nearly $70M down to around $20M in the second half. 10: Q2 should flip the hedging numbers impacting earnings from Q1. That would suggest upwards increase of $0.50 per share increase in Q2 earnings over Q1. 11: the target of 40GW is down from earlier suggestions of 45GW to possiby 50GW. A 10-15% market share by JKS built into guidance would have suggested 4GW-6GW of guidance was to be from China. Right now they are probably looking at 600MW-1GW of that in the first half of 2019. The second half would have 3-5GW from the initial guidance. This new 40GW China target would suggest that the lower end of shipments being 14GW is more likely than the upside. If GCL 35GW suggestion of demand in China for 2019 is realized, then there is minor downside r
  6. 1 point
    Koch brothers now using crows to destroy solar power plants: http://m.solarzoom.com/index.php/article/126902


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