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Solar Investor
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Everything posted by SCSolar

  1. WOW Just WOW - Enphase up 37% toady. That $55 price now looks like a forward PE of 30 ish. Congrats if you own it. I got jittery feet when I dipped my toes in it a month or 2 ago at $24 then it pulled back. Solarpete: I presume you house is now being paid off 10 years ahead.
  2. Is this a PR for closing last year or is this a Q1 PR? They had a habit of PRing sales up to 6 weeks after the close of the quarter for the prior quarter
  3. Some phenominal numbers in their. 150GW global demand 20GW shipments 18-19% GM They could be looking to gross $850-$900M. The extra global shipments should add about 80M in Opex. You are looking at 2019 with Opex at less than $500M 2020 OPEX pushes $570-$600 Interest runs$55-$60M The suggestion is $220M Net before Taxes and adjustments. Those numbers suggest $4 a share in EPS. The only thing holding this back is the impact of the stock run up while they have the convertibles outstanding.
  4. Just an ugly looking company. 9-12% non GAAP margins in Q1. $7-$85M net Loss https://investors.sunpower.com/static-files/c5570216-1361-428d-9e00-16497142ec3a
  5. I am fully aware of the incentives China gave their manufacturing base. The policies implemented back in 2012 that spurred the massive build outs was put in place to save what would have been a death to their solar manufacturing. They are trying like hell to back out those incentives now. We have seen the impact of pricing when the Government backs out of the protectionism. I just wish the U.S. would get smart and get rid of the protectionism. I mean we do not have a solar industry in this country. First Solar has what 1Gw of production and the rest is in Malaysia. Sunpower is contract manufacturing overseas and have manufacturing over seas. To me the tariff costs does not justify the indusry. The only thing the Tarrifs have done is create at most 1,000 low skilled low level assembly jobs that is only temporary. They will be lost once solar subsidies are removed. it is different if the tariffs were in place to foster an industries growth like China did, but we have zero industrial policies in this contry design to make a thriving industrial base.
  6. Why because at times it is just fun at times. Sorry if I did not like your posting and information I would not needle on you at times. That is a sign of respect. You gotta admit, with production costs where they are today, and only going lower over the next 4 years, really hurts that FSLR story of low cost leadership they used to preach. even the analysts have recognized that these days. By 2024 with new technology that has better low light absorption and angle absorption and heat response is going to eat into the final selling points of CDTE. The same way their claim of lower installation costs have been shot with larger lighter more powerful panels made from Csi
  7. As the CN ramps low cost poly, legacy plants will shut down. We have talked about that in the past. OCI is just another example as was Sun Edison, Hemlock Wacker and REC. China was importing 40% of their Silicon needs a year or so ago. With that massive ramp you have been screaming about, they will be importing even less. The market being 140GW conservative with China producing 85% of all product requires 576MT. By 2024 when the Tongwei 290KMT is online for the first full year, China is going to need well over 770KMT. Eventually there will be more Chinese shuttering of the legacy capacities they have in China. It will be all good for solar manufacturers as that means prices will be coming down more. That is all bad news for your dearly beloved company that would be near death if not for the protectionism put in place making us pay higher prices that the rest of the world.
  8. Sold out my 5,000 shares a wee bit too early. Dumped last week at $20.50 range after re-accumulating at a 18.90 range.
  9. Wow what was the news that drive JKS and DQ today? 18% for JKS and over $25 a share.
  10. Enphase is doing well right now. They have had a great run and you have been in for quite some time. Nice catch. My word of caution on enphase is that they are U.S. market centric. The residential is not growing much. Thus the only way to expand is to steal market share. In order to do this they need to swipe from SEDGE. They will be competing with new entrants in that market segment SMA and several others including those from China. You can expect as the Chinese enter, they will enter with a significant price discount to Enphase. When that happens their margins will be impacted. I do not see Enphase as having much room to lower their product costs. Thus while they are having great Net margins as of Q3 and possibly higher in Q4, the longer term impacts of price pressures would drop net income fast. A 10% ASP decline would take 5-10% off that net margin. Thus like the poly makers and panel makers I would expect to see that very high Net margin to start a decline in the near future. Just my word of caution for a 12-18 month outlay. I will be interested in seeing margins of Q4 and fiscal year 2020 guidance and trends.
  11. OMG that sound MASSIVE until you look at the finer details. That is appx 50-60GW of Si supply for solar modules by the end of 2023. That sounds like a lot but it is really about 10 GW a year when you look at the total capacity being in production in 2024. That 10GW level of expansion is basically a 5% to 6% average average market share growth. If the marekt continues to grow at 15% for the next several years, that 10GW per year is what 33% of the supply growth? My guess is that this expansion will fill their needs for current cell capacities and planned 30GW expansions.
  12. SPWR has no place but up to go. They have been given exemptions on the U.S. tariffs to import their China OEM modules. That means they are going to have HUGE profits per module sold near term. We are talking 30% plus margins or double digit gross. With their leverage they should be able to underbid almost any module for any project, rooftop or ground mount.
  13. What if they miss and guide lower? RuhRoh....
  14. Longi appears to be suggesting the 146GW that some have bantered as a 2020 goal is a conservative estimate and are looking at 150GW in 2020 or more. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200210/1041121.shtml 1. How do you judge the quarterly demand for photovoltaics in 2020? In fact, the development of the photovoltaic industry is relatively continuous. We believe that the process of 19-20 years is a continuous growth trend, and this growth trend is relatively certain. The installed scale was at the level of 120GW in 19 years and the level of 150GW in 2020. Of course, there are different forecasts from different agencies in the industry. The conservative 146GW and the optimistic 60GW are all available. We believe that the entire installed capacity and overseas investment enthusiasm for photovoltaics is relatively high. As mentioned earlier, the cost of photovoltaic installations continues to decline, reflecting the economics of photovoltaics, which is very cost-effective compared to other forms of power generation. The number of countries with more than 1GW ranges from 7-8 in 17 years, 13-14 in 18 years, more than 20 in 19 years, and more than 25 in 20 years. According to feedback from our overseas sales team, there is generally an increase in the overall market.
  15. SCSolar

    Beyond Solar

    Do not giant short squeezes eventually pull back significantly?
  16. SCSolar

    Beyond Solar

    Their run for a large market cap has been astounding. Their run up since June is 400%
  17. Is this possibly the trigger that finally stops the euphoric and unwarranted rise on stock priced? The PE ration is in the top 15% of all time, the markets hit of 29,000 last week. The market hype was near peak. Is this Coronavirous the pandemic that causes panic in the markets and that 10% or more correction that some say are coming? I would think protective puts for a percentage of the market might be advisable. I took positions in DXD mid last week to cover 1/2 my holdings.
  18. I don't understand, how can that be if as some profess, the prices are being sold at cash cost? I mean Q2 operating income was higher than Q1 and Q3 was higher than Q2? Those facts just don't jive, you can't be profitable and have operating income climbing if your selling at cash costs.
  19. US to install 24GW (DC) in 2020 based on 18.5GW (AC) installations. So remember when looking at installations of projects, that is usually AC based. That 120GW of projects is really 155GW DC. If 140GW is reached, that is really 181GW. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200119/1037518.shtml
  20. That is what I figured. I have tried posting twice to this and it appears to not be taking the post. I wonder if this one does.
  21. Both JKS and CSIQ should have significant shipments to the U.S. as well. Jinko is targeting up to 4GW of shipments to the U.S. in 2020 from their last con call. The $0.23 ASP will not be for them with that level of shipments.
  22. Yep ditto here, I got out in April before a trip and re-entered right before the market dropped about 750 points in August. I pulled most out of the markets because the economics of manufacturing data and the trade war fostering. I stayed mostly out for the year except for some solar trading when they hit bottoms in the 14-15 range.
  23. Yep ditto here, I got out in April before a trip and re-entered right before the market dropped about 750 points in August. I pulled most out of the markets because the economics of manufacturing data and the trade war fostering. I stayed mostly out for the year except for some solar trading when they hit bottoms in the 14-15 range.
  24. You were up nearly 50% after 4 months of the year. You had suggested that you target 2x leverage but had been levered 2.36 times in Q1. How was your leveraging and I presume the returns are based on the actual cash equivalent of the portfolio and no the 2x levered value. Is this a correct assumption? I mentioned I exited the market mostly in Early April due to travel. I stayed mostly out until August right before the pullback from 26,250 back to 25,500. I pulled out and remained 80% cash the rest of the year. My total returns were therefore mixed. depending on investment My trading account was up 29.33% for the year or roughly 50% for the year if you look at actual invested for the periods. My retirement account was up 12.5% and not invested for 1/2 the year My non trading investment account was up 19.6% for the year. while 90% out of the market for the 7 months.
  25. I think the market is fully valued at this point. I believe it was Shen who the other week noted that with the run up in JKS, that it became fully valued with no upside. Based on recent downgrades on FSLR to $49, the market should drift lower as we are now 6 months or so from visibility into 2021/2022. Once the tariff protection is removed or enough capacity is in the U.S. FSLR becomes a major failure likely FSLR is looking a a double whammy as the tariffs will be down to 10% reducing incentives for power companies and most likely the solar tariffs will be removed. If a Democrat gets elected, the solar tariffs will be removed sooner rather than later.
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