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SCSolar

Solar Investor
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Everything posted by SCSolar

  1. Watchout Enphase and Solar Edge, there is a new guy in your market and he has name recognition and size and is aiming at your sales chanells. https://articles2.marketrealist.com/2019/09/generac-challenges-enphase-energy-solaredge-duopoly/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=feed&yptr=yahoo Generac acquired home energy solutions provider Neurio Technology in March, and it acquired Pika Energy in April. Pika Energy manufactures battery storage technologies. With the addition of these technologies, Citron Research noted that Generac’s energy storage product range looks efficient and cost-competitive compared to that of the current players. Generac stated at its investor day last week that it has engaged in productive talks with Vivint Solar (VSLR) and Sunrun (RUN) to distribute its product.
  2. http://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-completes-sale-266-mwp-texas-solar-project-duke CHARLOTTE, N.C. and GUELPH, Ontario , Sept. 12, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Duke Energy Renewables, a subsidiary of Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK), is expanding its solar energy portfolio by acquiring the 200-megawatt (MWac) / 266-megawatt peak (MWp) Rambler solar project from Recurrent Energy, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Canadian Solar Inc. (" Canadian Solar ") (NASDAQ: CSIQ). The project will be located in Tom Green County, Texas and is expected to achieve commercial operation in mid-2020.
  3. When it comes to data points and trends Kloth is generally accurate.
  4. Here we go again, another state looking at implementing fees and stopping solar . FMPA looking to raise fixed fees from $9 a month up to $50 a month. The goal make more money and stop solar. This groups is ran by a former executive of failed coal company Peabody Energy. https://solarindustrymag.com/fmpa-coordinating-campaign-to-raise-florida-utilities-fixed-fees-and-block-solarThe Florida Municipal Power Agency (FMPA) is waging a campaign to increase monthly fixed fees to as high as $50 in an attempt to block the growth of solar, according to records obtained by the Energy and Policy Institute. FMPA is a wholesale power agency owned by Florida’s municipal electric utilities; it sells electricity to the municipal utilities, which serve 2.3 million Floridians in 31 cities across the state.
  5. I was using 4GW based on the 3500MW current guidance. I also left out the interest(me bad) Using lower shipments and interest, yes 3.6 to 3.7 is more likely near term. I view internal costs as low as $0.19 if not now in the next 6 months. $0.06 wafer $0.05 cell $0.08 module
  6. Do not presume Opex and interest will not drop. RND tracks revenue and Opex is somewhat stagnant. With little to no shipping costs for Chinese modules a slight increase to say 4GW per quarter drops that Opex per watt down to ~ $0.031 or20- 25%. That is with the addition of appx 500MW of new shipments in China which may happen around Q4. If you break down the Opex and interest, from Q2 you are sitting at sales/watt=$0.024 GA/watt=$0.01 RnD/watt=$0.003 Interest/Watt=$0.005 Lets look at the big chunk of Sales/watt. That is 2.4 cents of which some $0.017-$0.02 is the cost of freight to the U.S and other countries. If you compare the average ASP on PV insights of China to non China module ASP for mono PERC the delta is $0.022. Part of that delta is caused by the U.S. tariffs. This is pretty much true for all sales, they have a base manufacturing cost of around $0.20 then add appx $0.022 for RnD,GA interest and insurance and packaging.shipping. This gives you a base cost less shipping of around $0.212-$0.222. From there you add shipping costs tariff costs To the Asia Pac you add under a penny To Europe you and about $0.015 To the U.S. you add about $0.13 As you can see, the average ASP is only spiked up due to the U.S. tariffs. If you back them out, the average ASP is likely closer to $0.255-$0.26/watt today. That is manufacturing costs + cost to operate + profit. I expect the ASP to plummet next year by 10-15% or more. The reason is that the U.S. tariffs will be removed throughout the year due to the introduction of bifacial modules. The increased shipments to the low ASP from China will drive down the cost as well as lower mfg costs. I could see an average ASP in the $0.245 range when accounting for various shipping costs. If manufacturing costs for Perc is at $0.20(flat) today as you do not dispute, there is clearly room for profits at lower margins in the ASP decline. There is also room for margin improvements to around 20% under that situation offsetting your concerns regarding margins. By my estimates they have manufacturing costs of around $0.22 in Q2 2019 when you back out tariff impacts. They likely have another $0.02 in higher costs due to the outsourcing of modules. As their module capacity ramps and tariffs get removed from bifacial and U.S. produced modules, this all will lower their costs to that $0.20 range or lower we agree that modules can be manufactured for today. Their numbers make sense as does cost cutting avenues to increase margins. Wethere they do all that is yet to be seen.
  7. Are you suggesting that these companies are selling the modules below costs? For the past several months Mono Perc cells have bene in the price range of $0.11. That basically means they are building modules for $0.19 to $0..20. There is virtually no shipping costs in China to get the modules to projects. They can be profitable at a 10% GM in China due to that imho.
  8. Here is an interesting two article in China. It appears that the State governments of China are starting to buy the PV plants out from under the private companies and removing the risk and liability of not getting tariffs. . This may be a means to avoid paying the massive amounts of FIT and getting cash into the hands of companies and out of some debts. They are also transferring some geothermal plants out of hands of private companies and it is believed this is part of a process to push grid solar. This is an interesting change in policies that needs more monitoring. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190903/1004325.shtml http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190903/1004368.shtml
  9. My understanding is they are having production glitches. Their fix was a staging area instead of a line shutdown. That staging area has manual intervention.
  10. Can you explain how a company reports $18M net income with 40 million basic AND diluted shares and gets $0.18 in EPS per diluted shares?
  11. I am still trying to figure out how $18M net income is only $0.18 in earnings. when they have only 40Million shares. That $18M is slightly above what I expected for $0.40. Net income attributable to the Company's ordinary shareholders was RMB125.4 million (US$18.3 million) in the second quarter of 2019 Diluted earnings per American depositary share ("ADS") were RMB1.260(US$0.184) in the second quarter of 2019.
  12. Earnings out, great margins at 16.5%, great forward guidance at 18-20% margins. http://ir.jinkosolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/jinkosolar-announces-second-quarter-2019-financial-results
  13. They are all bad stocks for investing long term in. They are all good stocks for trading at the proper times.
  14. Well for share price FSLR up 20% in the past year and up 70% from its lows CSIQ up 59% in the past year and up 73% from its lows JKS up 55% in the past year and up 168% from its lows FSLR CSIQ and JKS are all flat in stock price over the past 5 years These numbers say investing is solar is a bad idea unless you are going to trade solar. Valuations and earnings potential has zero impact when compared to peers. What the numbers tell me is that FSLR is more stable investing than peers and the peers offer equal or greater potential gains when trading than FSLR. Throw a dart and pick one, that is just as likely to have the same results as someone who thinks they know the future earnings.
  15. I would go a little lower revenues in the $891M range unless the sell some of their projects. margins 16.5% net income before Forex $0.75 $15M forex loss earnings earnings of $0.40. It all really boils down to margin expectations.
  16. Well the RMB depreciated by 1.4% over the past week. You would expect to see the average ASP decline within that range. When you subtract out the 1.4% devaluation of the RMB, those drops do not look that bad. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=1W Those numbers look very promising for downstream module producers. The trends are necessary to reach True grid parity with storage in most of the world and especially in China. By my estimates they are making Mono Perc modules for about $0.20 now. That is based on the $0.11 for Chinese Perc cells. That $0.23 China ASP with that manufacturing cost is 15% margins. That foreign average ASP of $0.25 is greater than 25% margins. The U.S. is the higher price range so even that market is likely more profitable than any market around even with the tariff. That U.S. market has surged and has price increases due to a rush to get projects in under the ITC planned reduction in 2020. Looking at those numbers, I only see positives for the next 6 months for the module manufacturers like CSIQ which had improved margins and JKS which is likely to beat their margin guidance.
  17. You can add Amazon as a company that has claimed a Tesla Solar Installation. That is a 1 out of 11 installed. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rachelsandler/2019/08/26/amazon-also-experienced-tesla-solar-panel-roof-fire/?ss=cio-network#6550c15e72c2
  18. I expect DQ and others to shut down legaccy capacity as their new capacity grows and the shift in price moves below cash cost. To me that is sustained in the $9+/- range.
  19. As the new low cost capacity comes online, the legacy capacities of companies that have loaded costs of $10-$12/KG will start being retired. This will offset some of the over production you are suggesting. China still imports lots of Poly. In 2018 they imported 152,000 tons mostly from OCI and Wacker. This was downs from the previous year for the first time. The imports of poly was mostly high grade for Mono wafers. You can expect that as new capacity is added while the market demand for high grade poly continues to grow , those importers will have their business get crushed. https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/05/24/1843135/0/en/Global-and-China-Polysilicon-Industry-Report-2019-2023.html
  20. I do not believe that is the case.. If that were true. It is as I said more likey that some modules shipped in the past were delayed revenue recognition. For example, in Q1 they shipped 1575MW of which 52MW was for internal projects. That places 1523MW as shipped for revenues. However if you look they state that only 1423MW of modules shipped was recognized as revenues in the quarter. The Q1 PR indicates they had atleast 100MW of modules shipped to customer in the quarter but not booked as revenues. These would be contracts that have certain acceptance criterias with their customers. These would be booked as future sales. When they do get counted towards revenues, they are shipped modules but just not from that quarter. They have been doing this for several years now. That is also why the ASP and costs do not neccesarilly line up wih their numbers if you look at them as only that quarters costs. My estimation is they generally have several hundred MW of future revenues to be recognized in a quarter.
  21. Well even taking all of MSS you do not get 28 cents for 2.376GW. At half the EPC and none of the oem services and other materials, you have $0.252. By the way the leaves 100% of the money from Kits as just panels which they are not. So lets just disagree some here as the numbers suggest somewhere between $0.195 and $0.215 for production costs. I really believe as we discussed about Q1, that they have laggard shipments and those higher costs are being recognized in revenues. They had somewhere between 233MW and 298MW in Q2 that were revenues recognized from modules shipped before Q2. When you factor that in with the suggested MSS margins, then the module costs suggests below $0.20 for current production as I have been stating now regarding spot pricing and costs since late 2018. "Total solar module shipments in the second quarter of 2019 were 2,143 MW, compared to 1,575 MW in the first quarter of 2019 and second quarter 2019 guidance of 1.95 GW to 2.05 GW. Total solar module shipments in the second quarter of 2019 included 65 MW shipped to the Company's utility-scale solar power projects. Module shipments recognized in revenue in the second quarter of 2019 totaled 2,376 MW,"
  22. No they are making over 20% GM these days in modules. Based on the Q2 MSS numbers, their ASP is around $0.25. JKS may not be there yet but they should be close as they get gains due to their learning curve and ramp of Mono Perc and the RMB depreciation.
  23. I think that CSIQ is using creative accounting for their owned projects. If you recall a while back in a con call they indicated they do not use the electric power generation as earnings, instead they reduce the cost of the plant by the revenue generated. This creates an increasingly lower cost base. That pumps earnings as those unclaimed power margins goes straight to the reduction of the cost to build as a rate higher than the resell value would decline.
  24. LOL The CN are sub $0.20 production costs now. A slow down in their cost reductions still places them sub $0.20 costs and even lower. FSLR is going to take 2 years plus to get sub $0.20 which is optimisitc at this point with their line production cluges.
  25. Now you are thinking. You can take your revenue numbers and determine what their cost to build is which is $2 or less and probably declining. My understanding is the projects that do not get the paperwork processed from the 2012-2104 FIT get the FIT cut to 21Yen. There is still good profit in those. There is still good profit in the FIT from 2015-present. Even todays FIT of 18 Yen is $0.17/KWhr. There is still a lot of cash generation at that FIT level for good teens to 20% margins. It is not until 2022 or later that the FIT will be cut to 8.5Yen. by then costs will be under $1 even in Japan leaving good meat on the bones. It just will not be the cash cow they have now and volumes will have to scale as we have talked about many times over.
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