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SCSolar

Solar Investor
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Everything posted by SCSolar

  1. Wow love this comment from the DQ transcript on Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/article/4349119-daqo-new-energy-corp-dq-ceo-longgen-zhang-on-q1-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single "If, let's say, two years ago, maybe consumed 4.5 grams in our silicon per watt. So, that's why the module cost is not number one cost right now. The number one cost is gases. Okay? So, basically, we believe on a module right now per watt cost for silicon is around right now like 3 grams to 3.2 grams"
  2. India Q1 installs fall 43% to just over 1GW. https://mercomindia.com/product/q1-2020-india-solar-market-update/ Solar installations in India declined by 43% in Q1 2020 reaching 1,080 MW, compared to 1,897 MW in Q4 2019. Installations were down by 39% year-over-year (YoY) compared to 1,761 MW in Q1 2019. Solar capacity additions in India in Q1 2020 were the lowest in a quarter since Q4 2016. In Q1 2020, large-scale solar projects totaled 886 MW, and rooftop solar installations added up to 194 MW.
  3. Back rent being demanded for solar projects on Federal lands. https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/trump-admin-slaps-solar-wind-050634864.html
  4. That is a good climb back. I caught some of the upswing but I got out far to early. and have sat on the sidelines as soon as I trended negative from being up ever so slightly. The buying of debt by the FED did more for the markets than anything by stabilizing what would be high risk companies. See Coal and gas markets. Depending on how you look and invest in the markets, the Dow is down 17%, the SnP is down 11.36% and the Nasdaq is up almost 0.5%. I basically sum them all together based on actual point value and have an average of down 12.71%. It is clear that the manufacturing is looked at as being far more at risk and impacted by the Virus than say the tech heavy Nasdaq.
  5. The Fed filled the coffers and backstopped many levered companies. The average debt held by American companies is far higher than any time in history. That leaves them in trouble in case of downturns like we just hit. If not for the Fed pumping in Trillions to banks and companies, the market would be at 15,000 or less. The real question is what happens from here. The brick and mortar clothing stores were already in trouble and some will die. The Oil and Gas should have many companies fail, but the Trillions designated for large companies is going to go to those Oil and Gas companies first. They can not handle a prolonged down turn. You have to realize, the U.S. GDP is about 25 Trillion. The Fed and the Government has pumped $8Trillion in equity so far. That is for something that has had 2 months of impact and that impact is only about 15-17% decline. I am still out of the markets as I do not like the uncertainty or market volatility and earnings are not going to bounce back for many any time soon. I am sitting down 1% for the year vs the 10% of the overall markets
  6. They are not selling at spot. Last Q they were significantly higher than the average for the quarter. They have guided significantly higher for this quarter than average. They have been getting near the high end range of the price spread. I would expect that to continue as their quality is there and the demand for good quality mono is still there. Thus the High end range in May is still $9+. This would suggest they will pull down $8-$8.50. With their costs at $6 or less, they will be doing just fine.
  7. Confused? I am? Did they maintain or raise full year guidance? That Q2 revenue guidance is terrible. EPS for 2020 was only $1.03. A price over $50 is crazy even if they run EPS growth 50% YOY. I am not certain they can do that in todays economy.
  8. For some reason, people must be looking for a longer term bounce back in solar. Those homeowners I do not think are looking to add solar right now witht he economic uncertainty
  9. 2GW in AbuDhabi that could go to Jinko. PPA is being indicated as another record low at $0.013/KWhr. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abu-dhabi-talks-edf-jinko-142345317.html
  10. WoodMac lowered 2020 solar installs to 106.4 GW. Remember this is installs which trail shipments by 10-15% or so. https://www.pv-tech.org/news/wood-mackenzie-lowers-global-solar-demand-forecast-on-covid-19-impact
  11. I think the investment world has come to realize Oil and Solar are 2 different market segments.
  12. I have feeling that the 2 are a little disconnected but are heading south to the same levels of margins(zero to negative). Both are heading south in price for similar reasons. A supply glut and a lack of demand. Solar has not dropped like Oil. Then again Solar has been operating at 20% margins while Oil has been operating at 25-1000% margins depending on regions and type of production. Oil has been operating with the price in the $60-$70 range, while the majority of producers can produce at $5-$15 a barrel. Even Deep Sea drilling in the Gulf of of Mexico was at a $25/barrel back around 2005.. Most of those rigs have been depreciated and written down so those costs are likely half what it was back in the Bush Presidencies and can handle a drop to $15 or so. Oil has had a huge margin. That margin is true for 80% of the production. The non competitive Oil is Fracking and Oil Shale. Those costs were in the upper $30's to upper $$0's per cost. Those are not being destroyed. Consider it like Chinese vs the ROW for pricings back in the early 2010's when non CHinese Solar companies wer dying right and left. Now they are similar because both seem to be tracking ASP to cost because of lack of demand. They are different in that Oil has had a much more dramatic drop due to much higher margins and collusion on price fixing prior to the glut. Both are being driven by stay at home orders and lack of consumer Activity. In the U.S. home installers are going to be crushed. Nobody is going to be installing rooftop solar which is why Sunrun dropped their 2020 guidance. IN fact globally, I would expect that the most of the drop in solar guidance from IHS and others is 80% rooftop and small commercial.
  13. Longi has cut the price of wafers yet again. This makes twice in a month. This time by 11.5-12%. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200420/1064454.shtml
  14. I was in a holding pattern. Took a slight loss previous week. This past week up slightly. I am down 1.37% on the year. 3 of 5 accounts are profitable. One the college scholorship fund I setup in memory of my daughter is up 6% and has been sitting in cash for 3 weeks. I have no market shorts as of Tuesday. I have limited exposure to anything other than Intel and Microsoft. That bull run to 24,000 is quite unexpected. If Goldman and the rest are accurte, the recovery is 12 to 18 months. Earnings futures are not going to be justifying the price IMHO. I guess backstopping all investments and bonds and bad debt by the FED by pumping 10 Trillion into the pockets of banks and brokers is one way to get them back in the markets instead of selling due to margin calls.
  15. This will go back into the courts and likely be stayed yet again.
  16. That does not sound good for any company including your dearly beloved. 30-50GW is not all residential. Then again Longi dropping all Mono wafer prices by 4.5% is not a good sign either. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200408/1061649.shtml
  17. SunRun has withdrawn 2020 guidance and laid off employees amid the slowdown of US residential installations. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/04/07/sunrun-withdraws-2020-residential-solar-guidance-lays-off-100-employees/
  18. It is not the first time I bought the wrong stock and it certainly won't be the last time either. If you can't take a little loss at times then you should not be in the markets. I got drubbed back in the 2010 market collapse with solar as my primary investments. I made even more back when they rebounded.
  19. I blew it on my flip to my short position. I had 2 ETF purchases that I thought were my short coverings., instead I realized at the last minute of the trading day they were longs. Not soon enough to get rid of them before close. The market plunged 400 points that day from when I bought those positions and dropped 900 points the next morning at open. That was about a 15% swing as the were 3x market etfs. That mistake cost me 2-3% on gains for the week by having to take losses instead gains. Instead of being up 3% on the year, I am up only 0.5%. Good news, 3 of 5 accounts are positive. 1 is up 6%(College Scholarship fund). It is back to 100% cash. two are up 3%. They are 80% cash for now. The bad news 1 account which is 50% of my total assets is down 2% on the year. One account(sons account) is down 12% for the year. It has primarily been 75% maker invested with minimal short protection.
  20. Not certain the accuracy but this article appears to suggest Canadian solar is adding 3GW of Mono Ingot pulling in Baotaou City. If thenumbers are accurate, they are paying around $0.19-$0.19/watt pulling capacity. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20200403/1060605.shtml
  21. Saudi Arabia and Russia are looking at taking out the expensive U.S. Oil shale industry that has production costs in the upper $30's to $48 dollar a barrel range. When you compare that to what had been the most expensive oil of deep water drilling of $25/barrel, the Oil Shale industry will be put out of business. The first company filed for bankruptcy protection already.
  22. Along the lines of what Klothilde has been suggesting, IHS cuts 2020 solar installations to 105GW. That is down 16GW from 2019 installs and down about 35GW from previous 140GW mid range forecast for 2020 https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/2020/03/31/ihs-markit-releases-new-2020-solar-installation-forecast-in-light-of-the-impact-of-covid-19/#gref
  23. SCSolar

    Beyond Solar

    This is slightly off the trading topic Explo and I have talked about. But this is a market issue regarding COVID low demand for Oil and the Price war going on between Russia and Suadi Arabia. The Oil Shale industry in the U.S. is about to collapse. That energy independence the Trump administration has touted was built on the most costly to produce and some of the dirtiest oil from Oil Shale. The cost to get Oil from these fields is in the upper $30's to upper $40's per barrel. These companies have taken trillions in debt to buy equipment and build fields that produce the Oil. These fields are profitless with Oil under $50-$60. The Oil is worthless with the price under $30/barrel. This Bloomberg article lays out some of the issues, which includes Job losses and bankruptcies and why the industry needs to be bailed out. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-t-afford-let-shale-180000917.html
  24. Pain is coming and that is why the FED has been buying up toxic assets and trying to back fill banks with liquidity. I did not realize that safe havens of say some REITS, electric companies etc were going to have cash flow shortages. I do not think the recovery starts as fast as you might think. You have companies all across the U.S. that has laid off workers(tens of millions). Those companies have no cash flow to pay rents or bank loans that are coming due. You have banks that gave companies lines of credits with the expectations that they would never be drawn down but were there as a business building block. Those credit lines are being asked to be filled now and the banks do not have the cash. You have people that are unable to pay the rents held by Realty Trusts. The money the Fed has offered is a paltry sum that covers the cost of food and little else. That sum of money is going to skip many people who do not quality. All those people will decide, Mortgage or Food? Electricity or Food? Gas or Food? Food or Garbage pickup, Food or Cable TV or cell phone etc. You have a large swath of companies across the spectrum that are going to suddenly not have payments coming in. The monies authorized by Congress is only about 1 months GDP. This is (and always has been) looking to be a 3-6 month problem if not longer as many companies up and close forever. The cure is to shutdown everything for a long time, that is starting to be realized by those that would risk 100,000s of thousands of deaths to keep the economy going. Not to sound pessimistic but I wondered why the stable Electric, Trash , phone and cable companies were dropping when gas prices and interest were at record lows. Now it makes more sense to me as they are going to have defaults on payments to them.
  25. Yes, I am actively managing it. As a retired person it is my full time job. My long position was in TQQQ and UDOW. My short positions I take for protection to prevent downside exposure is in SQQQ and DXD. I sold 2/3 long holdings in dividend stocks and whent about 80% cash as of late this morning when the market was up. I put a short the market in place to cover my 20% holdings to protect my gains when the DOW breached 100 down.
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