SCSolar

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Everything posted by SCSolar

  1. That offer is not even the 50 day moving average as of yesterday being $6.83.
  2. CEO is a crook.
  3. If this tariff goes through, how does this order impact Sunpower? They have most of their production in the Philippines and in a partnership in China. Sunpower has 1.2GW of capacity in China in JV and was looking at expanding to 5GW. https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/05/22/how-sunpowers-5-gw-chinese-joint-venture-can-add-value/2/
  4. Are you expecting the sales of the 3 projects to show up in Q1? The transcripts on SA stated that these will be in Q417. It reads as if they have sold them but there may be some acceptance terms before completion of the sale. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4056870-canadian-solars-csiq-ceo-dr-shawn-qu-q4-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single "The sales of the other three operating solar power plants in Canada was closed in February for over C$257 million including the associated projects and will be reflected in our financial statement for Q4 2017."
  5. Apologies. It was not Saudi Electric but the 1177MW Abu Dhabi Power and Water agreements.
  6. Saudi Electric is a 2019 COD target. The modules for that will probably be shipped in the late first half to second half of 2018. They will be getting some EPC contract revenue for the planning and construction management. The whole project is being built for $0.70/watt. Based on that , there is not much room for recognized EPC revenue after subs and suppliers are paid. A conservative estimate might generate gross profit on sales of modules and EPC work at $60-80M spread over 2017-2019. That is a 6-9% margin on the overall project. This goes to show that even on Mega scale , there is little profits in projects.
  7. You consider this a late ER? Last years ER date was set on 5/17, the year before on 5/15. Both years the ER was near the end of May.
  8. I generally concur that a late ER is a sign of bad news. Pure speculation, but I would not be surprised that they re-adjust the values of their project portfolios in the U.S. I might also look at the 4 week notice of the E.R. as a positive. Again speculation but to me it would suggest they are waiting for a major announcement such as paperwork filed for a J-Reit or some major portfolio sales agreement that they expect to be sold by then.
  9. How much cash do you think they net after debt and the initial company funds to build the projects? Do you believe Canadian Solar will hold a percentage of the J-REIT or will the divest 100% when you are looking at those numbers?
  10. CSIQ should have a very strong forward guidance in the press release. My expectation is that the stock will bounce up on the forward guidance of $1.2B a quarter in revenues. This guidance I do not believet includes the J-REIT spinoff in Q4 or Q118 .
  11. In the past, the forward guidance has been the major driver for the stock. As Q1 is guided it is expected weak. A shortfall is not that bad on the stock as long at future guidance is strong. If they miss Q1 but Q2 and the full year are guided inline with full year, then this is a bullish sign. I might expect that the Q2 guidance being a bangup quarter might temper any price drop one could expect from weak Q1 earnings. I might believe that wherever the price is a week or two before earnings, it will only go up after the ER if a strong Q2 is guided and full year re-affirmed or raised.
  12. Jaso should get the impact studies done and allowed to proceed. The problem is that the 6 month delays have caused them to miss a window for shipping tariff free modules to the U.S before the ASP collapse to the U.S. The ASP in the U.S. according to Jaso is already $0.37 in Q1. That removes a market they can sell into until ramped capacity in Vietnam.
  13. http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fslr/insider-trades
  14. How can that be? They had operational expenses of $345M in 2016 from continuing operations. They expect to ship 8.5-9GW. From their preliminary guidance, this is in the range of $3-$3.25B in revenue. Can they really reach 10-11% which is lower than 2016 Opex while shipping 30% more shipments?
  15. Looking at the cost per watt for acquisition is not a fair way to determine that First Solar projects are worse for an investment. The First Solar projects have a PPA based on the 2008 MPR. These lock in 20 year rates at PPA of $0.12 or less. The Roserock PPA from Recurrent is $0.045/KWhr with Austin Energy. There is twice as much revenue that is derived from the First Solar acquisition. Similar profits could be made from each per dollar invested. http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PUBLISHED/COMMENT_RESOLUTION/121158.htm http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/published/Comment_resolution/93316.htm http://www.utilitydive.com/news/austin-energy-gets-record-low-solar-bids-at-under-4-centskwh/401642/
  16. The sale price is what they paid for the projects in 2015.
  17. I am trying to wrap my hands around CAFD. Do you know what percentage of the CAFD is distributed to the tax equity partners(TEP) of the projects? The TEP get monthly and quarterly distributions that is distributed by the Sponsors operating the OpCo.
  18. What do they do with the CAFD? The Class A dividend is only a small portion of the total. Do they give the rest to the Parent or do they keep it for running the business?
  19. This is a solarzoom article that is along the lines of the digitaljournal article. http://www.solarzoom.com/article-94552-1.html
  20. Here is a link on discussions of small scale land lease for solar farms. This is anywhere between $1500 and $3,000 an acre per year. I live in a rural community with landowners having acreage and have received flyers quoting $2,000 per acre for 30 year leases looking for 30+ acres near major distribution centers. Cleared land in my area sells for $10,000-$15,000 per acre. https://www.reddit.com/r/RenewableEnergy/comments/1g9kgq/my_farm_was_approached_by_a_solar_power_company/?st=iu8s0ul0&sh=126f6d5a The purchase price from the earlier link is $18,250 per acre. A 10% return places the lease at $1825/acre. The total lease per MW based on 5 acre installation is $9125 per year. Depending on insolation, which for the areas of project are quite good, this would run about $0.005/Kwhr generated. Selling the land to free up $73M in cash is a good decisions imho.
  21. Those earnings estimates are not reflective of the current and future market. Looking at Q2, Jinko made $26M gross from projects and netted $42M as a company. Without power revenues earnings would be far less. This year the power revenues gross profit will be close to $95M on revenues of $160M with 60% gross margins. That places $1 in EPS from Jinkos module business this year. Most of that module profit is gone based on their Q3 guidance. Jinko indicated that the ASP is going to drop in the low teens. That drop is from a price of $0.55 and 18% margins in Q2. In Q3 the guidance based on Jinko's comments is $0.48 with 16% margins(midrange). This is $34-$35M lower gross profit that earnings is based on. Q2 had $42M net income. If the Q3 guidance happened in Q2, then after the reduced gross from the modules they would have had $7.5M net income in Q2. That would not be considered good at a stock price of $20. Heading into the winter, Jinko will have more curtailment and lower power generation numbers than summertime quarters. You can expect 30% less gross profit than Q2 from projects. This is $8M lower gross. You are now looking at Jinko being near break even in Q4. If past is prologue, do not expect a sudden uptick in ASP of any significance through 2017. One might expect a lower ASP in Q4 for those with major focus in the U.S. Yet another winter is hitting solars. It will be a milder winter than the last time and a shorter recovery time.
  22. What you call adjusting to market, some might call lying. Here are 5 examples of shift changing and corrections to both values and executions. What is interesting is that once Recurrent was bought, the guidelines for all other regions of what is perceived as better margin projects such as Japan and the China FIT have been pushed out and not met. There is a pattern of missing projections of project builds over and over and adjusting them out and dropping some that seemingly had approvals for building. As a company that once stated they only proceed with a project when a buyer is arranged, to be stating that they have projects and apparently not grid approval of clients is basically lying to the public. Lie number 1 - China projects March 15, Identified in the PR connecting 320W DC in China At the end of 2015 they had connected 196MW in China or 61% of guidance By the end of Q2 2016 the high FIT and they had 218MW r 68% of target 2015 connections Lie number 2 – Q2 Report China projects 338MW under developement- Note this was after the Recurrent acquisition. See Q2 2016 report for reality. Lie number 3 – Q2 Report 2015 japan 336MW of projects have grid connection approval. Q42015 ER indicates that 200MW have interconnection agreements. Lie Number 4 – Japan project and timelines Q4 2015 ER 600MW to be connected in Japan through 2017 March 2016 56.2MW to be connected in 2016 363 connected in 2017 the remainder of the 600MW pushed out to 2020 Q2 ER 2016 44MW connected in 2016 106MW in 2017 576MW total with the remainder pushed to 2022. Lie #5 Project worth Pipeline of Recurrent was worth 2.5B Pipeline of projects was worth $2.20/watt Current projects adjusted to $1.80/watt Future projects to added to pipeline value $1.40. Big Big Big disconnect on claimed valuations. I wont even go into the comments on declining gross profits that once was over 20% then 20% then 18% now 15% and I bet some are in single digit or at a loss now.
  23. What is your Jaso ASP? I have CSIQ ASP $0.56. They had 52% shipped to high ASP regions.
  24. I will be curious what they say about Japan and the projects. Based on past history, one can not rely on CSIQ Japanese project estimates. They have severely under performed in the past several years from what they claimed vs what actually happened. In this regards, they have missed guidance by 80% through 2016 from what was claimed 1 year earlier in the April 2015 presentation. They did not build to 2015 guidance nor did they build to 2016 guidance as shown in 2015. They are now several years behind their plans with only 60% of the buildout being guided as COD by the end of 2017 from what was presented in April 2015. Even the 2017 numbers of over 300MW COD are up in the air. They had already lost over 200MW of past late stage pipelines. As of Q116 they only had 200MW with signed connection agreements and had only 109MW in construction. They have indicated they are waiting on a new Japanese Meti review that could put more projects at risk of not being built. The 600MW identified from the 2015 April ER that that was to be completed by the end of 2017, has now changed be completed by the end of 2020. That is now 100MW per year on average or half what was initially planned so far. Yes there have been many reasons given as to why the targets have shifted or missed, but the facts are still the regarding backlog build in process and current guidance.
  25. If history tells us anything, anytime a FIT is about to be reduced there is always a rush to beat the deadline. China demand is not expected to continue at the current pace after June.