Those numbers might be considered reasonable for Q3. Looking at Q4
96% revenue modules again
ASP = $0.27-$0.277
Cost = $0.22-$0.2215.
If you take a .305 ASP Q3
Q4 ASP = $0.035*.9=$0.275
Q4 Costs = $0.275*0.795=$0.218 for low end cost
Q4 Costs = $0.275*(.795)= $0.225 high end cost
They are targeting 20-25% GM for internal production next year.
They suggest 16GW of internal production.
They suggest market is growng >20% in 2019
Estimated market growth 24-30GW
15% market share of new growth = 3.6GW low end 4.5GW high end.
2020 Internal production 16GW(4GW per Q avg)
A continued decline of 15% through the year places an ASP
Avg ASP = $0.2745*0.85=$0.233
Internal Cost low = $0.233*.75 = $0.175
Internal High Cost = $0.233*.1866
Revenue = 16GW*.233= $3.73B
20% Internal margin Gross = $744M
25% Internal margin Gross = $933M
2GW added Opex = $40M
$500M(2019Opex)+ $40M = $540M
Opex/Interest = $540+$65=$605M
Profit before taxes and adjustments low end $744-$605 = $139M
Profit before taxes and adjustments High end = $933-$605 = $328M
Internal production Average Gross = $235M
My comments: This internal production costs sound quite reasonable of $0.175-$0.186. That higher end range is a penny below a CSIQ indicated cost for 2 quarters or so ago before Poly drops.
Juicy profit upside for a $17/share price I might say as that does not have any project sales included or 1.6 -2.5GW 3rd party purchase sales.