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Showing content with the highest reputation on 11/20/2019 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    Those numbers might be considered reasonable for Q3. Looking at Q4 Margins 18%-20.5% Revenues 1.17B-1.23B modules 4.2GW-4.4GW. 96% revenue modules again ASP = $0.27-$0.277 Cost = $0.22-$0.2215. If you take a .305 ASP Q3 Q4 ASP = $0.035*.9=$0.275 Q4 Costs = $0.275*0.795=$0.218 for low end cost Q4 Costs = $0.275*(.795)= $0.225 high end cost . They are targeting 20-25% GM for internal production next year. They suggest 16GW of internal production. They suggest market is growng >20% in 2019 Estimated market growth 24-30GW 15% market share of new growth = 3.6GW low end 4.5GW high end. 2020 Internal production 16GW(4GW per Q avg) A continued decline of 15% through the year places an ASP Avg ASP = $0.2745*0.85=$0.233 Internal Cost low = $0.233*.75 = $0.175 Internal High Cost = $0.233*.1866 Revenue = 16GW*.233= $3.73B 20% Internal margin Gross = $744M 25% Internal margin Gross = $933M 2GW added Opex = $40M $500M(2019Opex)+ $40M = $540M Interest $65M Opex/Interest = $540+$65=$605M Profit before taxes and adjustments low end $744-$605 = $139M Profit before taxes and adjustments High end = $933-$605 = $328M Internal production Average Gross = $235M My comments: This internal production costs sound quite reasonable of $0.175-$0.186. That higher end range is a penny below a CSIQ indicated cost for 2 quarters or so ago before Poly drops. Juicy profit upside for a $17/share price I might say as that does not have any project sales included or 1.6 -2.5GW 3rd party purchase sales.


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