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  1. 5 points
    I would encourage everyone who is invested in SUNE, TERP, and/or GLBL to read the orignial 13D that was submitted by Einhorn and Greenlight that is the source for the various sensationalist headlines of "Einhorn to sell SUNE" and other cherry picking headlines. 13D: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/945436/000089914016000972/s16114931a.htm The paragraph with the most meat in it follows: Greenlight intends to evaluate on an ongoing basis its investment in the Company and its options with respect to such investment. In connection with such evaluation, Greenlight may seek additional calls and meetings with members of the Board and/or senior management of the Company, or communicate publicly or privately with other stockholders or third parties to indicate Greenlight’s views on issues relating to the strategic direction undertaken by the Company and other matters of interest to stockholders generally, including management. As part of such evaluation and any such discussions, Greenlight may make recommendations, suggestions or proposals to the Company that may relate to or result in one or more of the transactions specified in clauses (a) through (j) of Item 4 of Schedule 13D, including but not limited to: changes in the strategic direction of the Company as a means of enhancing shareholder value, changes to the Board, changes to the Company’s senior management, changes to the Company’s charter or bylaws, acquisitions or dispositions of securities of the Company, changes in the Company’s capital structure or dividend policy, and the sale of material assets or another extraordinary corporate transaction, including a sale of the Company. The "rally" that we had today is as a result of knowing that nothing really is off the table and that someone with a modicum of business sense may actually be catalyzing some real changes in SUNE. As per the suggestion above, my thoughts are that Einhorn will engage (or already has engaged) Tepper in coversation about rectifying the VSLR issue. After reading more in depth with regard to the whole fairness doctrine vs the business judgement rule: http://www.rc.com/documents/Primer%20on%20Business%20Judgment%20Rule.pdf I have a sense that the case as presented to the court of Chancery will be determined by the whole fairness doctrine: "If the party challenging the board’s decision is able to allege and prove that those involved in the decision- making process lack independence or otherwise breached any of their fiduciary duties, then the business judgment rule’s presumption is overcome and the court will apply the “entire fairness doctrine.” As a result, the burden shifts to the corporation to prove that both the process that was followed and the price that was achieved are fair to the stockholders of the corporation." From above source. In my opinion there will be an attempt to rectify this wrongdoing and TERP will function more independently. If I'm wrong and TERP gets VSLR assets forced upon them then I will be ready to increase my position because there will be a big movement in the PPS. (TERP moving large moves over last 2 weeks on less than average volumes). I have not EXPLOited the moves like explo has...good job explo! Best to all!
  2. 5 points
    Having purchased CEDR since the start I have now acquired 2 full years of data. This makes trend analysis a meaningful and fun exercise. I did a trailing twelve months (TTM) trend analysis of CN9 that I'd like to share with the club (as always odyd, feel free to delete it if you think it is excessive exposure of data). Each month in the attached chart represents the sum of monthly exports the past 12 months. By using 12 month compounded exports the seasonality effect is eliminated from the trend lines and the trendlines should thus reflect pure competive strength trend on the global market. It's quite clear that the "investable" CN4 have had a strong trend in the global market share competition. It is also clear that financially stressed Suntech and China Sunergy lost a lot with their hands financially tied. Also significantly financially stressed Yingli with nose just above water (unlike Suntech and CSUN) lost their dominance. Slightly less stressed Renesola have had trouble growing their global presence after their huge success in 2012 and early 2013. Note that their relatively new global OEM manufacturing base might distort CEDR's reflection of their global shipments for recent months. HSOL always having mediocre product offering and marketing compared to leaders is a long-term lagger that grows slower. Despite having been around much longer as module brand than many others they achive less volume, especially considering that a lot of their exports lately are tolled QCELLs modules. Edit: I'm adding an index style chart, where they all start at 100 in June 2013. This illustrates the difference in growth rates more clearly. Solar9 in total grew global presence with 17% the past year. Biggest losers Suntech and CSUN lost 50% of their presence, while biggest winners Jinko and JA gained around 90% global presence. Edit2: I'm adding total shipment charts as well for the same period. The monthly data was based on estimates and interpolation of monthly domestic shipments from quarterly total shipments and monthly export data. Some definitions are needed. For total shipments only external products sales related shipments are included. Any shipments related to internal downstream projects, processing service for other brands or warranty replacements etc. are thus excluded. For exports this is not true. There all shipments are included, but in most cases internal downstream projects and processing service for other brands are likely more negligible than for domestic shipments (HSOL tolling QCELLs module and exporting them to high ASP markets and CSIQ global projects being the most significant exceptions). For 14Q2 the guided/guestimated total external module shipments was used. Note that Suntech could not be included in total shipments as there's no visibility there, but I kept them in export charts since although Suntech ADS is worthless Wuxi Suntech is still a panel market player, now in the hands of the new cowboy in town (Shunfeng). Module exports grew 17% for Solar9 in the period, but total external module shipments grew 40% for Solar8. This is partially explained by Suntech drag not being included in total shipments and domestic shipment growing fast than international (naturally as China market has grown faster than international market the past 2 years). Note also that the "domestic" sales part (diff between total and export shipments) actually would include international module manufacturing too. SOL and CSIQ should have the most significant impact from that. A couple of interesting conclusions are that several of those losing market share on the international scene have been able to exploit domestic demand to retain utilization levels despite that loss, but likely at the cost of lower margins. Yingli increasingly continue and CSUN, SOL and likely Suntech massively started to rely on domestic demand to keep their manufacturing lines busy, while HSOL are still skeptical about betting much on domestic market. Trina keep and CSIQ started to exploiting domestic demand peaks, while both being strong in international market between the domestic booms. Jinko maintain a strong and stable domestic presence while growing international presence. JA is reducing domestic presence and managing to more than offset that with fast growing international presence (applies to cells as well). Even though trend for CN4 leaders is not as strong for total shipments as for exports I still view this as a signal of the CN4 brand and financial strength. They gain in the most attractive markets that have tougher barriers, while the weak have to resort to the less attractive but more accessible domstestic market. Edit3: Attached charts updated for Q2 actuals and July CEDR. Edit4: Attached charts updated for August CEDR.
  3. 5 points
    Bad day for the big market, but CSIQ performed relevantly well. Tomorrow will be the last day before ER so some further volatility is expected. On the other hand, the big market is shaping up to rebound and CSIQ might have a small run-up before the announcement. The consensus estimate has been coming down steadily form the original 82 cents, to 63 cents, and then to 60 cents now on Yahoo. This bodes well for an easy beat in my opinion. I had 3 estimates based on combinations of factors, mainly opex and tax charge/benefits assumptions. In the ideal scenario, the company would have been able to maintain a similar level of opex in 15Q1 despite a sharp jump in module shipment volume (taking into account factors such as absence of year-end compensation expenses etc), but received no help from deferred tax credit. Here is the breakdown of the expected earnings in this case: Project Revenue: $180,250 Module Revenue: $594,750 (ASP = $0.61, Cost = $0.502, GM = 17.70%) Total Revenue: $775,000 Cost of Revenue: $631,906 Gross Profit: $143,094 GM: 18.46% Selling: $40,342 G&A: $25,000 R&D: $ 3,500 Opex: $68,842 Income from Ops: $74,252 Ops Margin: 9.58% Interest Expense: -$12,200 Interest Income: $ 4,200 FX Gain/Loss: -$ 4,000 Other Gain/Loss: $ 500 Income before tax: $62,752 Tax: $15,688 (25% tax rate) Net Income: $47,064 Net Margin: 6.07% Less Non-Controlling: $3,000 CSIQ Net Income: $44,064 Share Count: 60,206,680 EPS: $0.73 In a less ideal but probably more realistic scenario, opex would have gone up with shipment volume somewhat linearly (about $7M more). My estimate of EPS in this case is $0.64. Finally, it's possible CSIQ had utilized their deferred tax asset. In this case, EPS will be higher.
  4. 5 points
    For those who did not request via PM, e-mail from Ed Job, Also, Nomura note sent by Ed, both on Friday. Second e-mail with attachment from Nomura had this text: Robert, This is more interesting than the oil price.... because the oil price does not matter... oil cannot compete with solar. Regards, ed First e-mail Robert: Thank you for the article on Seeking Alpha. Many investors sent the link to me and some of our large investors actually agree with your analysis. Moving on to your questions: There is no real link between oil and demand for solar modules. Very few countries burn oil to produce electricity, and in my calculations, oil would have to drop below $20 for electricity produced from oil to be competitive with solar energy. In some geographies solar energy competes with natural gas prices. Oil may affect natural gas prices to a certain extent, but even then, natural gas prices need to drop over 50% from current levels, and stay at the new low levels for 20 years to compete with solar. I do not expect any impact from current oil price decline on the demand for solar energy in 2015 and beyond. I don’t know of any particular event or new news that may be causing weakness in solar stock prices in general. Some people seem to be focused on oil prices, some on ASPs, and some on currency fluctuations. Overtime fundamentals will prevail. We will provide more detail re: 200MW mentioned on the call as developments warrant. Typically we only consider a project for inclusion into our late stage pipeline once the land is secured, and we have a PPA with a credit worthy off taker, and in some emerging markets I would add, construction and project finance secured as well. Meanwhile we will focus on the 1.4GW of late stage pipeline that we have to deliver results in the quarters ahead. We will provide more guidance on or before our next call. Getting into a debate with negative analysts is not productive in my view. The best use of management time is to focus on the execution of our strategy. Talk is cheap, execution takes time. We believe solar adoption will accelerate in 2015 as more countries adopt solar, and Canadian Solar is well positioned in the industry. As developments warrant we will make disclosures to update the state of our business. Best regards, Ed Job Director, Investor Relations Canadian Solar Inc., 199 Lushan Road, Suzhou New District, Jiangsu, China 215129 Tel: +86 512 689 66525 Mobile: +86 130 7338 4046 NASDAQ: CSIQ Nomura India raises target 5x to 100GW by 2022 112814.pdf
  5. 5 points
    Things we need to learn from this GTAT fiasco is that: 1. balance sheet is important. it is important to stay in the business than talking about great future. 2. high short interest always raises a red flag. Many longs here think short interest is a good thing since it could fuel the the stock to the upside and could even cause short squeeze (yes I know VW short squeeze story but it's rare). To be honest, shorts do a lot of homework since they have limited to gain and unlimited to lose. Raising short interest is always a red flag and we need to think about what we have missed in our analysis. Feel sorry to GTAT longs but think about the positive side of the life and life is more than money and has to go on.
  6. 5 points
    This is probably the most detailed reporting on the imminent release of the new policy. http://solar.ofweek.com/2014-08/ART-260006-12003-28860729.html A quick summary: The National Energy Board had organized an on-site meeting on 8/4 in Jiaxing, Zhejiang, with participation by the heads of 36 provincial energy departments and executives of 29 energy enterprises, including the two major national grid companies. The reason to hold the meeting at Jiaxing is that it has solved many difficulties in DG and can provide a model for other places. Mr Wu, The director of National Energy Board, said a new DG policy will be announced, and if electricity sale of a DG project does not meet the projection, it can be transferred to receive the subsidy for ground stations. The new policy has gone through all review and sign off processes by different divisions of government and is waiting to be officially released. In order for the new policy to come out in time to finish 8 GW of installations in 2014, it is expected to be published in August. Main changes of the new DG policy: The scope of DG will be expanded to cover 20 MW or below projects built on waste land, abandoned hills, tidal beaches, ponds, and agricultural greenhouses. These projects will receive 1 YMB ground station subsidy. In addition (I think I missed this before), rooftop projects without enough portion of self electricity use can also enjoy the 1 YMB subsidy. Also by the end of June, Zhejiang province has 1.38 GW of DG projects on file, 673 MW are under construction, 145 MW connected to grid.
  7. 5 points
    I may be wrong, but I don't think any "de-listing" news, tariff news, or any other recent news really had anything to do with the solar sell-off the last few days...albeit the sell-off I'm sure was somewhat magnified by the media and short analyst types that used it to scare some weak retail hands out...but that's actually a good thing in the long run. The rest was just day-traders taking advantage of high volatility. Sometimes people overreact to sell-offs, and have to find a reason why...when really there is no real or good reason that's specific to the stocks or sector themselves. The lame stream media does this every day...if the market is up or down on any day, they will come up with a universal reason why. Sometimes their reasons really are stupid, but the still have to come up with their headlines. So if the de-listing theory or tariff theory is true, then why did FSLR and SPWR also go down quite a bit? The market was down big Friday, the DOW down over 300 pts. So why wouldn't we expect our low-float, low-market cap hi-beta solar stocks to not only go down, but to go down a lot more. You have to take the good volatility with the bad. Remember they can also go up 10% in a day on no real news. The end of the week was nothing more than short term technical trading and market forces imo...there is absolutely nothing that changed fundamentally (including the delisting "scare"), from the beginning of the week. The smart money knows this also. Does anyone think Nomura has changed their minds on CSIQ/TSL etc. over the last week?...of course not. So why would we, especially since we are very educated here as to what's really going on. We are in a great position to take advantage once again of the overall market's ignorance, stupidity and overreaction when it comes to solar stocks...but it does take some guts to buy when everyone else is selling. Compared to the old days, these latest moves and threats to our companies are just a walk in the park, and the certain analysts' attacks now just a whimper. Sooner or later it always comes back to the fundamentals. So just relax and be patient...solar is the fastest growing industry right now, and becoming more profitable every day. Nothing that's happened in the last few days is going to change that. I'm pretty sure the highs for the year haven't been seen yet... btw, when it used to get crazy like this, I would just pull out my CSIQ project spreadsheet, look at the hard numbers of revenue and profits on the horizon, and that would give me strength to see the short-term nonsense thru. That's why I stuck with CSIQ...their future was (and still is) much more visible than the rest. Smart money will also "overpay" for that visibility too. And that helps me sleep well at night, even during short-term chaos like this. So my advice; Relax, and if you can, take advantage of the short-term fluctuations of an irrational STEO market...
  8. 4 points
    Is that degree of dickishness really called for?
  9. 4 points
    Please don't say that. I have been enjoying reading his articles. The decision to buy or sell is our own. Odyd cannot control the stock prices. Many times Odyd saved our butts and I don't see you say your appreciation. Odyd, please don't stop publishing your articles because of this. Many of us appreciate your sharing of your thoughts.
  10. 4 points
    Hello, To show appreciation to long-term members and their contribution withSPVI 5-years internet presence, I would like to offer lifetime free membership to Explo at the highest level of subscription, whatever that may be in the future. Explo is the first member on record and has over 8000 posts. Thank you
  11. 4 points
    Hi Zen, I also replied to this article I am quoting my reply "I do not understand the premise of your article Aurelien. Carlos Domenech was a CEO of TerraForm Power, CEO of TerraForm Global and Executive VP of SunEdison, which you note. First, how does the fact of initiating the conversation about the merger by him relate to the hearing of the case brought by Tepper, and further, becomes a cause for it to be thrown out of court? If I understand your article, I would assume that Domenech had arm-twisted everyone in the corporate boardroom to push the deal on the SUNE. How come, Chatilla the hero, who fired Domenech, did not terminate the deal shortly after? What makes you think that Domenech was not told to call? His call could have been a fishing expedition started by and possibly conceived by Chatilla or any number of people. No surprise next conversation had more executives in the room. As far as we know the deal is still on, but Domenech is out, which makes that version of events a lot more plausible. Are you concluding that TERP should embodied Domenech actions and execute obligation of its ex-CEO out of moral duty? CEO wanted to merge, after all he came up with the idea, so be the man TERP and take on a junk since your leader started it. Clearly there is no ethical duty to destroy a company out of the bad decision of one, two or all members of the board. Tepper's lawsuit is about bad decision and the extent to which one need to go to stop it when undisclosed circumstances continue to push both companies to the edge. He simply wants to save one from falling if the parent company refuses to see the cliff. Finally SUNE can grab an opportunity of potential injunction and cause dissatisfaction of conditions and terminate the deal. Tepper would save not only TERP but of course SUNE as well. Vivint is simply toxic today. Why not go there? What is truly so compulsory that SUNE must consummate this deal? Why if TERP was relieved from obligation, SUNE would have to still buy Vivint, which everyone here recognizes as being disastrous and ending SUNE? Nobody ever described punitive measures to SUNE for walking away from the deal, so whom SunEdison HQ is trying to save here? Looks to me like Vivint Shareholders, but why and certainly over own and TERP's?"
  12. 4 points
    I see that quite few people had bought yieldcos recently and questions or doubts circulate about those decisions. Fear in combination with excitement of opportunity shown by those who are buying and surprise mixed with confusion by observers of this action seem to trend on the forum I think it is important to start at the beginning to establish some boundaries. First SUNE's situation is not a surprise to me. I have predicted sooner or later that organization will plunge into chaos based on its financials. I suspect that SUNE can become bankrupt, if and when they do not change business profile. That change is simple, sell and sell a lot of your solar plants to third buyers and yieldcos. Suspend third party acquisitions and remove any unnecessary activity to spend money. Any organization which sells its goods without operating profit is doomed. You need to sell so much that you support your borrowing costs and serve the principle of it. Simple laws, which myself and explo promote here. Now myself and explo are moving into arm's length organization like TERP, and invest in it? Is this a glitter of low price and high yield attraction? Is there a deeper reasoning? Naturally as I had stated on CSIQ discussion I apply the same set of tools to evaluate my investments. Balance sheet analysis followed with income statement analysis is a critical part of this decision for me. Reading 10Qs and details from the source not from the Barron's supports my moves. I cannot afford to use Travis Holium as genuine source of opinion as he lacks comprehension of the solar landscape, business acumen and accounting knowledge. I can't use opinion of RBC analyst about FSLR or UBS guy about TERP, as they are hardly better in their subjective view. They are not independent as they represent own organization making business in equities of those companies. So i have to use my own. Any organization can become bankrupt, in general by spending more than it makes. In this line TERP can become bankrupt. However TERP's profile shows that it spends less than it makes and it is capable of producing operating profit. In this light TERP is better than SUNE. SUNE does spent more than it makes so it is a prime candidate to be bankrupt. However changing the game SUNE can survive. Selling assets to yieldcos and third parties is the best way to secure profit for SUNE. So SUNE can be saved as developer with low margin business, which can pay its debts. TERP can survive bankruptcy of SUNE. There is no avenue to take assets of TERP to cover holes in SUNE's balance sheet. This is a reason number two for TERP to be a float. Number three reason is the yield of course. The sole purpose of this organization. At $42 it seemed like ok investment, at $7 seems like free lunch. The other two reasons synergize into this one. One needs to know the detail of GLBL deal to see that execution and money management is helping GLBL, it is helping SUNE and it is done in a way that cash is still floating in both organizations. Why pay a third party for their assets if I have good own assets. This is precisely the expectation. Selling should take place to third parties not buying. SUNE did a step to turn away from the path of own bankruptcy. The next SUNE's move should be made for TERP.
  13. 4 points
    Sorry for the delay but here it is. Cell Revenue: $ 15,642 (Module/Cell = 742.6MW / 47.4MW, I projected higher shipment than guidance.) Module Revenue: $458,927 (ASP = $0.618, Cost = $0.521, GM = 15.70%) Total Revenue: $474,569 Cost of Revenue: $401,352 Gross Profit: $ 73,217 GM: 15.43% (Slightly down from prior quarter's 15.49%) Selling and G&A: $35,413 R&D: $ 6,200 Opex: $41,613 Income from Ops: $31,604 Ops Margin: 6.66% Interest Expense: -$10,200 Warrants Gain/Loss: -$ 3,100 Other Gain/Loss: -$ 2,000 Income before tax: $16,304 Tax: -$ 2,446 (15% tax rate) Net Income: $13,858 Net Margin: 2.92% Less Non-Controlling: $ 500 JASO Net Income: $13,358 Share Count: 59,956,380 (fully diluted including warrants) EPS: $0.22 GAAP, $0.27 Non-GAAP Upside surprise: CSIQ surprised us with a huge FX gain. If JASO managed to pull out anything similar, we could be seeing $0.29/$0.35 GAAP and Non-GAAP EPS, respectively. There is no doubt that the company is going to blow out the consensus estimate coming Monday (I in fact wonder why the analysts played low ball here.). The stock action following the release, however, could be another story. GLTA!
  14. 4 points
    It must feel as insult to injury watch CSIQ and SUNE. Reality is that CSIQ has made very little progress to date on the amount of the projects built for yield. SUNE has added many projects and they are IPO another yieldco. I mentioned CSIQ will have soft Q2, my version of things materialized today. CSIQ will also complete 45MW this year in Japan. I hate to be a messenger of bad news but based on what I am seeing, Yield can possibly be floated in 2016. There are no projects for it now, unless they will transfer only rights to projects. Be aware of this. I am not talking about it again. Trying to be smart I moved money to JKS from selling losing trade in SCTY. Couple observations to Explo, Pop and few others. There is no such a thing as a favorite stock. The motion of having a favorite is like saying I am going to use my rotary phone, because it feels good on my fingers. There is no money to be made in favorites, like there is no room for waste of time using rotary phone to store your contacts (this is a joke). I wished you did not focus posts on actions of others, but stocks at hand. Trading activities are private and I will not post them again. I underestimated power of suggestion. I found myself in the personal distress and was not thinking clearly. It cost me. I will not make that mistake again, by inviting comments to my actions. I can gloss over few things, but cannot gloss over some things as it turns. JKS should make more money than CSIQ in 2015, it will connect the most plants in H1 2015 than it has connected now or 500MW. I see that JKS could have yield before CSIQ. (comments above) Finally CSIQ has moved its expansion to the end of the year. RE uses REC modules do not forget. CSIQ maybe trying to brand strangle customers, but they have no efficiency in house this could be a problem. CSIQ is a great company, but now they are too hesitant. I double checked Q3 actually could be the lowest quarter as on plant is suggested to sell in Q2, nothing in Q3. My two cents.
  15. 4 points
    This forum has not failed at all, please be careful in your words as this is quite offensive to odyd's hard work!! Many have benefited from the forum here. Just check YGE trading today for some example. I know a another forum where people were quite upbeat about YGE. Could not happened here.
  16. 4 points
    Some notes. Don't take as gospel though, pretty garbled call JASO CC Roth Good job on execution. Downstream. 50% GM on project connected No. of projects in China being worked on, should achieve project guidance Utility projects 260MW, DG? South Africa project in bidding process South American and North American Projects possible Capacity will come on line 3.5gw later this year. Overseas expansion will be approx 400mw Emily Lou Run rate slow down question. Seasonal, 1st QTR 30-40% shipment to China Japan 45% shipment 1st QTR Credit Suisse fx impact Japan, limited fx impact, EU impact there although 13% shipped there EU drama will impact is in a positive way RBC Congrats on QTR ASP trends, China weaker 1st half compared to 2nd half. Japan? Cost reduction offset ASP decline, Demand, healthy demand going through 2015 especially Japan. Restructure capital to improve earnings question. Pay off our debt to improve earnings, possibly use capital from downstream business, seems a bit vague here. House keeping from modules. Opex trend in 1st QTR, 10% Japan 1st QTR still substantial Projects sell or own criteria? China market 100mw project going to keep Case buy case situation GM trend 1st QTR, Q1 hope to maintain flat otherwise very slight decline Cash costs (all in costs) 48cents Pre Chinese NY and after. Factory shut down for 3-5 days now at 100% ASP’S different regions, Q4 China mid-high 50’s EU mid 60’S and Japan Q1 China low-mid 50’s, Japanese mid-high 50’s US high 60’s EU high 50’s Polysilicon @19 so reduction from 22. Thinks it will remain flat. Anti dumping qu regarding US. Shipped very little to US during this time. Capacity qu Overseas, SE Asia and North American (doubtful) Actively working on India market 3.5gw end of Q1, capex in China 30-40mill (700mw) overseas 30mill (400mw)
  17. 4 points
    Notes. Alot you already know It is a Canadian company Completely sold out so China not an option Kudos to FSLR Pipeline 600mw Japan Demand 50 gw+ 2015 Comparisons between Chinese project and themselves, CN manufactures only in China China, 300mw this year 100mw already connected, not committed to China. Connection issues etc Japan and UK strong growth next 2 years projects, May18th yieldco clarity. Questions 1 Guidance question, strength compered to piers. Geographically diversified rather than China, Honduras strength as well as Japanese shipments 2 ASP’s Japan Own brand name, better market price, somewhere in the 60’s Currency pressure only caveat 3 Volumes in Japan 2015 Aiming for more market share, not much impact by curtailment yada yada 4 US market Concentrating on DG market although utility scale also considered if right conditions. 5 Europe question Nothings happened. Audit carried out but findings are a recommendation. They believe they are compliment. Don’ think Q1 will be impacted. 2015 guidance shouldn’t be effected. They don’t think it will be a problem. 6 Yieldco question No Chinese project in Yieldco at the moment. 7 Long term Chinese projects will become quite valuable. Referencing under the dome video acting as a catalyst. 8 Lat question not answered because he didn’t know.
  18. 4 points
    Just read an article explaining the situation in Japan…some key facts: Total capacity on grid: 203.5 GW Capacity of utilities which have put limitation on PV grid-application: 51.8GW Capacity of utilities with no announcement so far: 119.1 Unknown status: 32.6GW (Chubu utility) Installation in H1/2014: ~4700 MW Residential: ~1200MW Commercial: ~1900MW Utility: ~1600MW So problem is more severe with small utilities and limited to rather only 1/3rd of grid. Also residential installation are not impacted by the limitations. Commercial installations are most hit due to short permitting period. Utility installations are not affected much as lots of project have approval and typically have long execution time. But ofcourse will have impact once currently approved projects get built. So based on this data, I will be surprised if annual installation fall off the cliff as expected by some people.
  19. 4 points
    They killed it my God http://investors.canadiansolar.com/mobile.view?c=196781&v=203&d=1&id=1988651
  20. 4 points
    Great replies all on my post…thanks Looking at what I wrote again, my original intent was just to comment on JMK’s observation that we are still just at the beginning stages imvho of this solar/renewable revolution, with huge upside potential…and then I started rambling on and going on a tangent as it’s sometimes hard to control my enthusiasm for CSIQ’s future. I know most here believe this to some extent about the solar future, but the day to day stuff sometimes makes us lose sight of this. Just wanted to remind everybody that there’s no need to get in and get out before it’s too late…and that $50 or $60 that seems like such a stretch to some people right now, could be peanuts in the future by comparison. Keep in mind the investment community is only now starting to embrace the sector. Although I always believed solar in general had an extremely “bright” future, it wasn’t really until CSIQ’s first really big win in the project business with TransCanada, with comments that much more was to come, that got me going because I finally had something solid I could bank on. The panel business at the time was a very tough way to make a living. I didn’t know who was good and who was bad, or who would even survive but I knew that I really liked their new business plan and the now visible revenues/profit streams that were to come, and also their Westernized approach. And with spreadsheet in hand (and yes, it’s so clear now from CSIQ that it’s become obsolete), I fought those crooked lying Tier-3 STEO analysts every step of the way! (btw, whatever became of the fantasy analyst? or my nemesis? or…nevermind…looks like Gordo is the only one left...inside joke for the old-timers here). Their overall execution of it to date has far exceeded my expectations…that’s why I keep holding. As far as my CSIQ buy and hold strategy being unique to CSIQ, as Odyd commented…maybe it is…at least to this extent (I said many times in the past that this was a once in a lifetime opportunity, and I still think it is…albeit to a somewhat lesser extent). There was also a lot of luck involved that I’m very thankful for. But if you find any company in any growing industry that has a solid, visible long term business plan that’s differentiated from the competition, and they continue to execute, then continue to hold. If they don’t…sell. Let the micro-second computers and day-traders fight it out day to day…I seem to always lose that battle eventually anyways. DD and investing is how you beat them. If they drop the price irrationally…don’t panic and sell…thank them for the opportunity and buy more! Stay strong until the long term business plan starts to falter (this can be due to both controllable internal and uncontrollable external factors)…as EPS is still king. Of course this approach does not guarantee success…but I do think it improves the odds for the small-fry. Sorry…looks like I’m rambling on again… Although I thought it would get there eventually…I was as surprised as anybody with that run...
  21. 4 points
    I recall I first did this on 3/26/2014 when we had the first severe correction following the highs in early March. Instead for it to get lost in the forum again, it's better to create a new thread to keep track of the performances of our stocks.I think it's useful to keep things in perspective and use it as tool for fine-tuning your portfolio. As of Sept 10th, 2014: Stock 2013 Close Close Today High Low YTD Since High Since Low Max Loss CSIQ 29.82 39.07 44.50 21.71 31.02% -12.20% 79.96% 51.21% JKS 29.30 33.50 37.98 22.37 14.33% -11.80% 49.75% 41.10% TSL 13.67 14.13 18.77 10.32 3.37% -24.72% 36.92% 45.02% JASO 9.17 10.13 13.14 8.49 10.47% -22.91% 19.31% 35.39% DQ 36.30 47.11 56.98 21.86 29.78% -17.32% 115.51% 61.64% HSOL 2.77 2.60 4.24 1.75 -6.14% -38.68% 48.57% 58.73% SOL 3.45 3.36 4.46 2.18 -2.61% -24.66% 54.13% 51.12% YGE 5.05 3.77 7.45 2.79 -25.35% -49.40% 35.13% 62.55% Some quick observations: Year to date, the CN5s all have positive returns with CSIQ and DQ as clear leaders. The CNR3s (rest 3) all have negative returns with YGE as the worst performer. The trend indicates the gap between leaders and laggards is widening. All CN5s plus SOL are within 25% of their respective highs, with JKS and CSIQ leading the charge. DQ is the runaway winner since reaching its low and CSIQ ranks at the second with the rest placing further behind. This is explained by the more severe correction both names had since reaching their highs and also by the strength with which they have snapped back. On the other end of the spectrum with less volatility, JASO remains a clear underachiever since the low but it also provides a hedge during the down turn while still maintaining an exposure to solar (explo's strategy). We all hope this is going to change soon. Personally, I think it'll be some time in Q4. As some sort of risk measure, "Max Loss" represents the loss incurred when someone happens to buy a stock at the high and sell at the low in panic. Based on this measure, JASO is the least risky (as expected but it's even less so based on more recent trading patterns) with YGE and DQ the most "dangerous".
  22. 4 points
    I'll just throw out that same old note of caution on CSIQ. On the module side, they're in the same boat as the rest of the China solars. They don't have the lowest costs, they don't have the highest quality, they don't have a critical brand advantage, and they're actually building (costly) new capacity. So there's no massive advantage here. On projects, they have no great advantage within China - JKS and TSL and other, non-module players do. In the US, they have no essential advantage over a SUNE (or others) given that these others can access cheaper capital. They're working to develop projects in Japan etc., but it's not at all clear that this is going to grow substantially. What they have is... the remaining Ontario project market. Yes, they were smart to seize it. Yes, they've done a good job with it. But does it put them in a fundamentally different position than the other China solars? I'm not so sure. (And I know the Ontario FIT program a bit - I used to work in the Ministry, was on the edge of the talks as it developed, was doing solar in Guelph 15 years before CSIQ arrived, etc.) But believe me, there will be no replication of those kinds of rates, EVER again. Ontario's Government almost fell over corruption around its gas plant purchases - and perceived overpayments for wind and solar have been a real issue. Those days are done. So what CSIQ has is an enormous vault, and within that, are a stock of very profitable Ontario projects. My advice is to ride them high now, and then - since they can be expected to have AT LEAST two more quarters like this - to either stay on the horse and try to ride it to a long-term high, or, to step off periodically to try and time some declines, and then ER-related run-ups and recoveries. But $40 is certainly within their grasp, and perhaps even $50. This comment is just to say that while CSIQ's Ontario projects have enabled it to appear as fundamentally decoupled from the other China solars, and while they obviously would LIKE to be, the depth of the difference is perhaps less than it might seem at the moment.
  23. 4 points
    Jinko Power Jinko Power is not a pure yieldco, it encompasses project development, financing, EPC, and O&M. It's more appropriate to think of it as a growth IPP. In the future, her relationship with the parent company is in module sales and support in other areas, rather than project development and transfer by the parent company. Model shipment to Jinko Power will not be included in sales and continue to be capitalized into plant assets. It won't affect revenue and profit of Jinko. The preparation for the Yieldco IPO is ongoing and a top focus point of the management for the second half. Both US and Hong Kong are possible locations for the IPO. There is no specific time table yet. There is no plan for share offering before the IPO. The current funding is sufficient to support the development of over 800 MW projects using leverage, that is, to reach 1 GB prior to the IPO. Capital raises through other means such CBs are not excluded. The 225 M capital raised will be used only for projects. Jinko will gradually develop projects overseas after the IPO. A lot of preliminary work has been carried out. DG Development The new DG policy will benefit Jinko greatly, especially on the downstream business. Module sales is also going to grow with the takeoff of the market. DG is the trend of future. Jinko currently has a 600 MW pipeline. The scale of signed contracts and MOUs is even greater. The development cost is right now about YMB 7 to 7.5 per watt including modules. Jinko has been rapidly growing her DG teams, including development, financing, and engineering. Some are being outsourced. Manufacturing Jinko will use the capital used for bidding Topoint for capacity expansion. By the end of Q3, wafer, cell, and module capacities will reach 2.3 GW, 1.8 GW, and 2.8 GW, respectively. Regarding to retainage, it's a convention of the past. There are not many new contracts nowadays with retainage. Jinko has a total of about $30 M retainage revenue, which is expected to be fully collected within one year and a half. H2 is expected to see $5-$8 M being paid back. Regarding to the US tariffs, Jinko plans to pay the 2012 tariffs for the time being, which come to a combined rate of 29.18%. Jinko does not rule out the possibility of opening cell factories in the future overseas, including in North America. Jinko confirmed that the cost including the tariff is $0.62 (or higher). But with modules selling at $0.74-75+, it's still at quite profitable levels. In fact, it's similar to what it used to be using Taiwanese cells. (So GM is about 17% or even higher.) http://xueqiu.com/talks/item/20122155 This post has been promoted to an article
  24. 4 points
    Well, I swung out of China solars and into US solar firms (SUNE and SPWR) earlier this year, and that worked out well. I then (largely) stayed out of buying more China solars until after the tariff decisions. I even managed to avoid any recent disasters during the ERs, except for selling my CSIQ options far too early (at just $31), thinking this was a brief bounce and not a sustained rise. Bad error by me. And right now, I am on the fence with Trina's ER. (I added some TSL short-term options to my LEAPs, and they've risen, but I remain undecided about whether to hold them all through ER.) Looking forward odyd, I see-saw between the 2 views you described. Frankly, much though I love these firms, their guidance only offers us relatively flat ground - in terms of likely profits and share price rises - for the coming 3 months. Quite simply, they haven't offered us any obvious guidance or clear reason to indicate that they are going to surge like CSIQ. HOWEVER. Then I consider 3 basic - non financial - facts. #1. The industry, overall, is still growing at a huge rate. This always offers opportunities for supply/demand to get out of joint, and tightness to appear, and for prices to rise in certain regions. #2. We're now essentially past tariffs. Reducing uncertainty alone eases decision-making, and should enable the management of our firms to turn to more important decisions. #3. And most importantly, the China Solars have not made their big/strategic announcements. Yet. However, we know they're all seriously considering their options on how to act, post-US tariffs. And EU. And India & Japan threats. JASO was very open about this, for instance. So, I think it makes sense that a number of the China solars will have reviewed their options, and ALREADY MADE THEIR DECISIONS, and some of them will have decided to do more than to simply take the hit and bear up under the tariff. Now, some of their decisions will have a strong PR angle (I hope), but remember that firms like SCTY and others do remarkably well with good PR! So. A few possible announcements in the coming months, which could greatly change the state of play for the China solars: 1- One of them is going to make the leap and announce a US plant. This, for simple PR reasons, strikes me as a done deal. Even a small plant would have a huge financial impact, however, as it would open the door to the kinds of opportunities a CSIQ has taken advantage of - e.g. in raising share prices and thus, making raising capital easier, winning projects, etc. Maybe JASO? They're thinking about it, we know that. Maybe JKS? We know they now have a war-chest after their Jinko Power partnership. Maybe TSL? I don't know. 2- At least 1, and likely 2-3 China solars are going to announce they are converting lines over to use the Merlin system from GTAT. GTAT has already announced they are at the stage of final customization with a number of "GigaWatt-scale" China players. And they have sold equipment in the past to all of YGE, TSL, JKS and JASO. The Merlin system, if installed, is claimed to reduce silver use, cut costs/watt, reduce panel weight, etc. The claim is a 10% reduction in module cost. We'll see. But GTAT is smart. Rather than try to sell them expensive capital equipment, instead it is shipping them the material for each panel, and thus, cutting capex. A Merlin installation would also be a major PR gain for any of these firms, as GTAT is a rising golden boy in US manufacturing, with its likely Apple partnership on the iPhone to be confirmed in September. - Project sale, and/or developments. e.g. As soon as a JASO announces its first major project sale, as long as they find a way to communicate their PIPELINE with some clarity (which they failed to do during the CC), they will begin to rise, and could position themselves as being, in part, a new CSIQ-style player, only based in Japan & China. TSL could also announce a sale, and it could have even better results, as they have a wider investor base. - Buy-outs/Mergers. These still seem to me to be screamingly obvious moves, simply so larger financial players can pick up smaller panel manufacturers who are also collecting projects. For example, CSIQ, JKS and JASO would all be possible, though CSIQ's share price surge may be let them escape. However. If JASO was sitting on 500 MWs of projects, with 200 MWs ready to sell, plus that balance sheet of theirs... and their expansion complete, using a lot of new gear and high efficiency lines, why wouldn't someone purchase them? That company could double in value just by hiring some good PR people, and presenting themselves in the style a CSIQ has come to use. This has perhaps a lower probability, but is still possible I think. - Better Incentives and Prices from China. It seems to me obvious that, to some degree, political decision-makers can shape the prices paid for panels in China's projects. Right now, the prices are too low,and it's hurting the solar firms. Government gets to set the targets, how high, with what timelines, with what incentives, and to lay down enormous direction to and through quasi-state bodies, municipalities, banks, etc. - Movement into large new markets like India. It wouldn't be surprising to see more China-India joint manufacturing project announcements, I suspect. And doing so could bring a participating company access to a huge market, state-driven projects, incentives, etc. In sum, though the companies themselves, in their guidance, haven't given us much reason to hope for a share price surge, I believe there are a number of news-led possibilities that could drive up share prices. And so, positioning around those possibilities seems to me something worth keeping in mind. Just as it was with SUNE and its YieldCo (which, BTW, sadly never made me rich... but a 30% gain is not to be sniffed at. And perhaps even makes me feel a bit better about screwing up my CSIQ holdings! Argh!)
  25. 4 points
    Just listened to the CC again. The valuation is based on equity valuation of finished 213MW by the end of last year ($100m Jinko's old equity + $85m premium) and future capital need for 600MW (or more) connected to grid this year. So for the 213MW already completed, they are getting a fair price, since they are getting about 40c per watt premium which should give them 20% GM on the project itself. They are not selling 45% of 813MW here since 600MW of them is not even completed. If there's no outside investor then Jinko needs to raise own capital to finish them first so there is no valuation on that part yet. Basically it's an agreement to develop projection together: Jinko brings on the table pipeline, 213MW completed at market price and their expertise to build projects, CDB brings ability to finance (possible lower financing cost) and Macquarie brings possible future pipeline or other financial assistance. New horizon might bring easier permitting due to its political connection. Of course Jinko can choose to give up less equity but it would slow down downstream expansion process and they might have problem getting projects financed once it's completed. Right now, cash amount in the Jinko power is about 100m+90m+225m=415m and this can support 1.15GW projects as Zhang mentioned in CC ($1.2/w) cost. So with outside capital, Jinko can get 632MW (1150*0.55) own share of plants quickly before IPO without actually contributing much additional capital. Introduction of three investors can also facilitate the IPO process IMHO. So the valuation now is really about cost of the projects not the market value of the projects. When the IPO really happens, these finished projects will be valued at market price and that's when the interesting things start. Considering they are keeping the projects instead of selling, I am thinking about $2.5 to $3 per watt EV for their projects. This will give them at least $1.6 per watt equity ($0.9/w debt financing) per watt which translate to $1.84B equity valuation of the whole company for 1.15GW completed. Jinko's own share should be about 1B which translate into more than $30 per share. All these projects are funded securely now and financing should be easy since CDB is on board now. That would price Jinko's manufacturing part for negative which should actually have $45-$60 value in my calculation. Further capital beyond IPO can be obtained by secondary to public or capital injection by Jinko and partners. If three partners want to maintain their 45% stake (or some lower numbers after IPO sale), they should contribute certain capital to maintain that paid in capital %. Now I am just hoping they won't quit after IPO since it's vital for Jinko to keep that financing and political connection edge. I think they might even get lower interest rate from CDB compared to other CN peers who are developing projects in China. If interest rate is 1% lower, that translate into 4%-5% GM improvement for their projects. So the deal itself is not good or bad if we don't look at what partners brings to the table. In that case Jinko is just finding somebody to fund future projects and share profit with them. It's the unique capabilities three partners bring makes this a great deal for Jinko. And to question why it's 45% equity not 20% or 25% equity sold to outside investor? Maybe that's the required size of pie to attract CDBI and Macquarie to the table and make them interested to work together with Jinko and to contribute to a company in which they have a reasonable share.
  26. 4 points
    Politicians are used to the concept of energy being a power, natural resource found in the land or sea belonging to a particular country. Owning energy is a national security matter. Oil and gas and coal and any other natural resource are vital to the country and should be controlled. Wars have been fought over this in last 200 years and continue to be fought today, covered in the veil of spreading democracy to people who do not care to be free. Energy grid is a military installation and nuclear plants are being protected by military in case of a terrorist attack not because of the harm on the population but impact on the grid and power supply. Solar energy is different as it can be captured anywhere. It is not a natural resource in the meaning of an exclusive location. It can be controlled by tools. You can harness a lot or a little, taking the scale to your own hands. You cannot run out of it, not in the feasible future. It is also quick to build and put out anywhere. It is a contradiction to the traditional view of energy source. People who run the world are C students with money; lacking progressive education. They own political agendas passed on them by the principal figure of their household or based on the knowledge they gained some 40 to 50 years ago. The training says solar is energy and, therefore, a national security measure. The only way to control it is by existence of a national supply chain. Not having manufacturing of solar in own country is a risk we cannot allowed. Thinly saw up scenario? Not in the eye of a politician. Combine above approach with all kinds of phobia on yellow perils, which led to the division of China in early 20th century, communism and loss of the leadership on the global arena by the US, and you have an explosion of national interest in solar, leading to tariffs. Then consider country of Japan, completely open to solar power installations. Japan is a country without natural resources. Japan fought wars over resources, starting with one in 1905 with Russia. Those wars were fought to control ports and access to China and to gain resources to grow national interest particularly with Second World War, explicitly being fought for energy: oil. After the war, both Japan and Germany became economic powerhouses dropping political agenda of controlling own interest by means of war. They did not do it by evolution, but were forced to it by the victors. What it came out from it was the conclusion by governing elite that many wrongs had happened from hands of our fathers, thus we need to come up with own agenda on the world and every complex issue in it. This is the reason, in my view, why understanding of the solar energy does not have same implications in Japan or Germany. People who govern in both countries do not feel the need to control means of solar power for national security reasons. In addition, Japan has a strong supply chain in the subject, which makes those matters ease. In the EU, there was no problem for it in Germany, but it was different for France, a country that was not forced to change own political agendas. India is brought up on a political stereotype of a strongman of the region and political description what that means for energy. Tariffs are a convenient way to block a competitor on India’s home turf. What it comes down to is a view of solar as an energy and who controls it.. The fear that China will impose a political will on how to distribute tools to harness solar energy is the main reason for keeping national supply chains alive. Even in a place like India, where it cannot survive in the current economy, those manufacturers are seen by politicians as must have. China, of course, has not helped. Instead of market driven elimination, China used vast mechanism of local, provincial and country wide support system for solar manufacturing, calling it one of the most important industries. If Chinese think this is important, why we should not think in the same fashion, is an apparent political behavior elsewhere. In my view, this is why Chinese companies must build globally. Opening this business to a global scene by China will take every politician's argument away. It will also eradicate social xenophobia of unemployed masses, blaming China for lost jobs. In the end, it is the right thing to do as the social aspect is critical to the health of the industry and each country. If industry can take out political agenda from its core, building factories abroad is a way to do it, we all win.
  27. 4 points
    Odyd, I'm curious what do you're referring to? I mentioned a couple weeks ago that this felt like a walk in the park compared to the old days...now it almost does feel like the old days. But the level of uncertainty about all companies futures were very clouded back then...for many reasons on many levels. Certainly not the case today. These major "corrections" can also be major opportunities...there's absolutely no reason fundamentally for this level of sell-off. So why panic like there is? I'm sorry, but I don't share all this anxiety about the solar world coming to an end. I don't trust WS one bit, so I don't participate in their game. I play my own game...that I know I have a chance to win in the end. Their game relies on emotion...and I see many here are pawns of that (and it's very hard not to be), and it usually costs them. I keep reading some of the traders' abuse of real investors here...I'm not "married" to CSIQ...if one finds a stock that continues to execute on it's long-term business plan...and has a bright future for many years looking out...then why on earth would I want to sell it if I didn't need the money right now? And this actually takes very little of my time now, and has very little stress. As soon as I see the business plan begin to truly falter (and not just based on "headline" news), then I'll re-consider my investment. But I recently spent several hours fine-tuning 2013 project revenues/profits based on YE info, and updating estimates that now goes out to 2017. And when I look at the bottom line, I am revitalized with confidence...just like I was during the beatings down below $3, when it was nothing but doom and gloom. And the same can be done right now for many of the other solars. So good luck to those very few traders that are actually good enough to make it in the long run...and consistently time the tops and bottoms...I'm certainly not one of them, and didn't like the ulcers that came with it. But I'm not sure I like the implications of someone's trading strategy being superior to someone who invests in a company's long-term performance, and doesn't want to participate in these dizzying WS trading head games. side note to Odyd; my "more reply options" does not work anymore...I keep getting a not authorized to be there page.
  28. 4 points
    My couple of cents here: 1. I don't look at 10 years cash flow. Solar industry is ever changing and any disruptive technology can give a new look to the industry. Who predicted <$20 poly price when poly was over $400 several years ago? Shorter term (2-3 years) is more visible for both individual stock and the industry and I am totally fine with that time horizon to invest. 2. Looking at 2-3 years from now, CSIQ is perfectly positioned by generating huge cash flow from projects every year from high ASP and high margin areas. After 2-3 years, CSIQ can use the capital it accumulated to upgrade/ expand capacity or venture into other emerging markets. What they will do beyond 3 years is just guessing but they would have much higher cash reserve/access to western capitals than peers and I trust management to put those capital in good use and generate good return for investors. 3. High ASP in subsidized area is not sustainable. But gross margin in higher barrier areas (North america, Japan) might be sustainable (15%-20%) for down stream business. With ASP dropping, capital needed to to develop projects drops as well. I have no doubt CSIQ will make up the ASP loss by higher volume in most profitable areas. In the end, the experience and branding enables CSIQ to capture profits in most high margin and low risk areas. It's not like JKS doesn't want to venture into Japan. They are just not able to do so right now so they have to remain in highly competitive chinese market for projects. 4. Even in chinese market, CSIQ would be in great shape with 3GW+ soft pipeline. They have great connections with western banks and that gives them cheaper access to capital for chinese projects. With local loan rate as high as 6%-7% and no long term loan available, this become a huge advantage to generate high IRR on domestic projects. Successful projects development and great pipeline would make it easy to set up yieldco for China's projects as well which would facilitate the projects developing in China further more. 5. CSIQ's strengths are in sales channels, branding and downstream projects. All these will help them to grow and survive any likely downturn in the solar industry. $1 invested in fixed asset you need to worry about possible oversupply in the future, but $1 invested in projects that has electricity off take agreement gives you high and predicted return. Good relationship with customers and branding will carry on disregarding the dynamic changes in the industry as well So in my opinion there are CN2(CSIQ, JKS)+1(TSL) to invest now. But if I have to park all my money on one stock, CSIQ is the obvious choice to me.
  29. 3 points
    https://www.engadget.com/2018/09/26/china-raises-renewable-energy-target-to-reduce-coal/?yptr=yahoo
  30. 3 points
    I agree with this, for two reasons. First, as noted previously, the Chinese have already made the decision to massively support their native solar industry. Think of all the money they've sunk into subsidies, loans, etc. in the past, for decades now, to bring their solar industry to this point. Now that the industry is on the brink of sustainability without further subsidies, they're going to allow it to tank because of a few billion dollars missing in a particular government fund? I find that completely unrealistic. Second, and perhaps more important, beyond economics solar now supports the stability of the Chinese government. China HAS to get a handle on its air pollution problem. Meanwhile, they also HAVE to produce more electricity, as they continue to lift millions of their people out of poverty and into at least the lower middle class. Those folks want electricity, and all of their city dwellers want, if not perfectly clean air, then at least air you don't need a mask to breathe. Renewables, including solar, are not a luxury for the Chinese. Let all your cities have air like Beijing has on bad days, and let those bad days become the norm, and you're going to have massive public unrest. That's anathema to the Chinese government. As we all know, there are no guarantees when investing in Chinese solars. But I think fears the internal Chinese solar market will completely collapse, tanking their entire industry, are simply not justified.
  31. 3 points
    It looks correct if debt is transferred as part of the sale. That looks to be a sale that would generate 12.6% gross margins with the sale price of $1.53/watt. They financed the project with $97M debt per the PR from April 25. If you run some numbers of debt, 20% their own equity, capitalized interest for 5 months at 3% for ST bridge loans, and 15% premium on the cost to build, you would find sale at $140.8M. The cost to build (debt+20%equity+capitalizedDebt) = $122.4M. The $42M received would be their equity investment of $24.25M + Gross profit of $17.75M. That gross profit is $17.75M/$140.8M or 12.6% margins. Coincidentally the $42M is right in the range of the 30% ITC credit the buyer would get for the total purchase price of $140.8M. If the equity they invested was 25%, then the margins look to be 6.5% with gross at $9.7M
  32. 3 points
    Odyd, thank you for sharing your thoughts. Thank you for keeping us informed on complicated matters. Have a safe and productive trip. Hoping for brighter days ahead for the stock market as a whole and particularly for Terp. Good luck.
  33. 3 points
    If you read Tepper's lawsuit., it is about amendment and not July agreement. This is where all cheerleaders for SUNE bringing up his stock ownership. The Pension fund owned those shares in July and they are arguing July agreement. Tepper is not a dummy, he brought legit timeline and he will have witnesses, those who quit to testify that they were fired over refusal to agree. SUNE is toast n my opinion. This is dismissal in bad faith and is a self-dealing in the most obvious way. I bet Tepper was called and hinted about it. This is why he started probing about getting minutes of the meetings etc.
  34. 3 points
    I am reading with great interest SUNE's thread on yahoo. I caught one post of someone who claims to be a lawyer, declaring that Tepper lawsuit is not going to succeed. Well, I am not a lawyer. What I know is that Tepper is suing SunEdison, in this condition I understand suing as bringing in front of the judge a request to halt selling of assets of Vivint to TERP at $795M due to merger between SUNE and Vivint. In the filing he seeks only "immediate injunctive relief" or a decision which will produce injunction ruling. That ruling means freeze to any action leading to TERP buying those assets. The lawyer argues that Tepper needs to prove fraud to stop it. I think he is confused. This is why. TERP is an independent entity under the security law. The fact that someone brings potential doubt that transaction may cause that independence to be in jeopardy can get easily injunction, if temporary one, to halt the purchase of those assets until the matter is argued. I would note that SUNE can proceed with the merger as it likes but cannot make TERP to buy them, under such injunction ruling. The fact that BOD has changed and there was clear turmoil at the helm of the TERP, ending with replacement of the the board with all SUNE employees proves a reasonable doubt that transaction is self-dealing. Such a doubt alone could construct basis of the order. Further what Tepper is trying to get and prove, that there was no due diligence over the purchase of assets, instead, It was a force of majority ownership to fund the acquisition. In majority decision, without proper due diligence, it is easy for court, to assume need to argue the case in front of the judge as there is a possibility of self-benefit. I believe that Tepper can get the injunction.
  35. 3 points
    Data for JASO is going to be published shortly and can be viewed by registered members. Thanks
  36. 3 points
    Ed replied to me and quoted Potter
  37. 3 points
    The wait is over congrats guys Canadian to acquire Recurrent http://investors.canadiansolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196781&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2012833
  38. 3 points
    Hopefully this is the answer you were looking for http://solarpvinvestor.com/spvi-news/960-factoring-fear-into-canadian-solar-valuation
  39. 3 points
    EU will not pursue SolarWorld’s claims of Chinese trade breaches These are allegations, far from sound evidence of breaches. The Commission can only act on the basis of solid evidence,” she said. http://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/news/eu_will_not_pursue_solarworlds_claims_of_chinese_trade_breaches_2356
  40. 3 points
    Didn't bother to read the article, but my long and strong stance is based on my belief in the solar industry's continued strong demand growth over the next decade or more (whether or not that is based on PV as we know it today is a different story though). So $145 for JKS in 5 years doesn't sound all that crazy to me. The good ones will get there, even if the road is a bumpy one full of giant potholes and sinkholes... I believe all companies have at least some potential for significant valuation upside, but who really knows how this is all going to play out over the years. M&A could come into play. Will the current low cost leader still be the low cost leader in 5 years, or even next year? Who will have the best panels in 5 years, or even next year? What will be the best vertical integration strategy, etc., etc. At least the big picture is much clearer now than a 2 to 3 years ago, with most of the shake-out now in the review mirror. My belief in the long term strong growth of the industry helps insulate me from the frustrations and jubilation of the "irrational" STEO market swings. More often than not, the market is smarter than I am in the short-term (or I just stay too darn rational). So instead of always trying to out-gamble the STEO deep pocketed trading professionals, and the micro-second computers, I prefer to play the game on my terms, where fundamentals and execution of the long term business plan is all that matters, not the current quarter's EPS. Actually, that is what the market is supposed to be about...investing...before it turned into Las Vegas... Nothing against trading, I do some myself. But the long term upside is huge so make sure you got some tucked away...imho of course.
  41. 3 points
    BIPV can you explain where all industry experts are wrong when they say 14H1 will be down from 13H2 due to seasonality (as every year), but FY2014 will be higher than FY2013 since industry growth remains strong. Use this as reference (page 15) http://gcl-poly.todayir.com/attachment/2014051519124417_en.pdf and explain where your view differs from the industry insiders and industry research firms view that the industry will grow nicely in 2014.
  42. 3 points
    You are a regular comedian there BIPV. I think in order to sign up one got to believe in the industry and thus far it is a hard sell here. I am not claiming a big deal out of this site but to be honest if you visit yahoo, you have complete dump, so this site is a pretty good benchmark of some sophistication on the subject. What is consistent 100 or so, people are here for over a year, some dropped off in silence and some came on, but to share solar investing ideas seem to be heavily guarded by $10 Canadian bill. That is pretty ridiculous. The reality is that solar and Chinese one in particular is a rare flavor. Very view people are using as an investment vehicle. They use it to trade it, they use it to short it, but few have a plan to hold. Chinese solar stocks are not investment grade in eyes of 90% of the market. The day we double this site's membership CSIQ will be a $100 and so will JKS. Until then, we are just a driftwood at mercy of the people who do not care if TSL is making toothpicks. I still offer a view, and that view is that when you build a solid foundation and you have excellent company making money and you grow your business at one point some WS banker is going to start buying your stock, whether you Chinese or Lebanese for that matter. So in next 12 months some of those could go few bags up. That is all what I say. when last year we talked about it I was a visionary as much as the next guy but did not see CSIQ hit $43 per share either. No surprise that being sarcastic is easier than stay focused and serious today looking at the splendor treatment given by market. Mastery of obvious does not require a skill, seeing a future does. So there is one thing I count on and this is the one thing made this site to come to life, Understanding of the industry, its strengths, weaknesses and such, operationally and not necessarily what the market does. I was not bothered by market view of the industry in May 2013 and perhaps I was lucky, but today I am still around 600% up from the same day last year, so I feel not bad about the future in next 12 months. I can also be a master of obvious when I see profits and growth and expansion. That is comfortable. I am pretty sure that my metaphor of 700%, will not happen, but a double surely will. Just stay tuned.
  43. 3 points
    Just finished listening to the CC and here are the some notes I took (correct me if there's any mistakes in the notes): 1. 2.6GW module capacity now and will be 3GW module capacity by 2014 Q2. Module capacity expansion will be in China. They are planning to expand cell capacity as well (probably Funing) with 60MW first line and 300MW for the whole phase. 2. For projects they want to hold will be mainly in China. So they will have close to 300MW holding projects in China by the end of this year. 3. If you add top range of module shipment (2.7GW) and holding projects (250MW) together, that's about their 3GW capacity output which is a very good number. 4. Module GM is about 15% which is up from 13% in Q3. I would say in pure module manufacturing field, JKS is clearly tier 1 and the only player there (20%+). CSIQ, TSL and YGE are the tier 1.5 with margin ranging from 15% to 17%. Considering how much lighter asset CSIQ has, it is amazing they can still compete with TSL and YGE on module margins. Their in house cost is about 50c (just behind JKS) and Taiwan cell adds cost on top of it. 5. For Japan's project, they are expecting at least GM similar as canadian projects and they are saying this is conservative. EPC cost is about $2 to $2.5 which is lower than my original estimates. They are also talking to some potential buyers for the projects they are going to complete this year. 6. Project financing wise, 25% own capital and 75% loan is usual financing structure here. 7. They are also looking at downstream opportunity in Europe and other markets. Overall I would say good guidance but stock performance gets hurt by the timing of the projects. I am going to hold my core positions for at least another 2-3 earnings since the ER shows they are on the right track doing what they are supposed to do.
  44. 3 points
    Forestg what are you doing on this site. Even if a company gives blow out ER you seem to feel a personal pressure to focus on bringing negative turns to every aspect you can come up with. I have my doubt if you do not fit in the picture of people that have been banned in the past. We should be happy as good er will be good for everybody but you seem to have a different agenda. lucky
  45. 3 points
    Whew, quite a day before earnings release. Now the stage is set for the big show on Monday, I guess we are all eager to find out what is in store for us JKS bulls. I had an EPS estimate back in December of $1.23 ($1.45, non-GAAP in parentheses) based on 530 MW shipment and an ASP of 0.65. I have bumped shipment up to 550 MW after the December CEDR data was published. http://solarpvinvestor.com/community/index.php/topic/2352-13q4-cn-solar-company-earnings-estimates/?p=33314 Now I see GAAP EPS in the range of 1.31 to 1.67, depending on an ASP range of 0.65-0.67: EPS ASP 1.31 (1.52) 0.65 1.49 (1.70) 0.66 1.67 (1.88) 0.67 While the middle one is a safer estimate, I believe an overall ASP of 0.67 is not out of question if JKS was able to sell her modules in China around 4.1 CNY per watt, given the elevated prices being reported during the year-end rush. Moreover, I've just run into an article which mentioned JKS had shipped close to 2 GW in 2013 (and now ranked as the 4th largest in the world). Not sure how close is close. But if it were 1.9 GW or so, it could add another 80+ MW to module shipment and 30+ cents to the bottom line if the story is true. I think I am the most bullish person on JKS Q4 result around this forum and in fact might be any where, so call me crazy I've built a huge March call position therefore I hope I'm right and at least the low end target above will be met. If this pans out, I expect the stock to pop above $35 and trend up to $40+. Wish me luck - we all need it!
  46. 3 points
    I did a review of historical data and found some interesting things. (google drive link to excel: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0WcxQcm29ewTXhTZDhCTVZqeWM/edit?usp=sharing ) In a 3 year period of both a boom and bust cycle there was only one company to gain equity during the whole period, Jinkosolar. Now revenue growth the king is Canadian solar with 111 mil usd growth QoQ and dominating in recent times. Historically during the last 3 years Jinkosolar has grown most revenue. Since CSIQ derives a lot of revenue from systems the two other more pure module players YGE and TSL are neck and neck historically (237 YGE vs 211 TSL during last 3 years) and recently TSL is pulling ahead. (YGE 130 mil usd 2013 so far vs 245 mil usd revenue growth in 2013 for TSL) I see most value in HSOL and JASO, with both companies having strong % values on Equity/MCAP and Revenue/MCAP. Historically however only JASO has had success in keeping equity (only lost 33,2 mil usd equity during the last 3 years vs 124 mil usd lost for HSOL) Granted very little is indicating we have another boom&bust cycle. More of a boom boom cycle. But it can pay to look at history sometimes. If perhaps to look at how well management does, I think it is a sign of a good management to manage equity growth during a bust cycle.
  47. 3 points
    Mildly related to news and a lighter note -- just completed first five days with the 50 new panels, 250w CSIQ with Enphase microinveters. Monday, made 27 kWh (turned on at noon), Tuesday 40, Wed 39, Thurs 39, and Friday 29 (a cloudy day). Enphase has a pretty nifty app and site with real time tracking of system and info on carbon savings -- number of houses powered for a day, trees offset, etc. Should make more and more going forward as days get longer and forecast her in AZ is sunny. Currently running no heat or AC. My older panels -- 44 Kyocera 215's are monitored separately on a string inverter - no app, need to look at the box itself. Latest pushback on proposed office system is from fire marshall-- concerned about roof access with the steel beam suspended panels spanning the roof. They asked me to install a sprinkler system, which I already have. I've been surprised at all the hurdles on the office system by City of Scottsdale. It is a small building and the system is 21 305w SOL panels, so I really want to get it approved as it may cover the power needs completely. * I know these updates from the field are not technically news, but hope the info from one solar owner's experiences, esp here in AZ, can be pertinent on some level. I have seen some interesting things that related to my investing: - The net metering debate played out here in a big way. - The opinion of the mainstream solar co's who would not even consider Chinese equipment 18 months ago has gradually changed, little by little, to the point of actually recommending them. - Watching the balance shift as heavy incentives have dried up -- my initial system was 50% pre-paid, the current ones far less, but the panels are much cheaper and more efficient so it is basically a wash. - Watching the bills go lower as the rates go higher and having a real example of total system payoff vs system degradation. - In the case of the office, the approval process, and how I hope to see that change to become more flexible -- ie, I'd like to see them say, "Hey, you want to pay for a solar power plant, then let's work together to make that happen." Instead, it is, "Well, gosh, we don't like this or this or this..." Anyway, let me know if this blather is boring and I'll leave it out or find a better thread for it.
  48. 3 points
    Looking back at the year gone by I’ve much to be thankful for That includes my money I have much more than before I put my faith in Qu and Potter and their differential Business Plan Ignored the STEO noise When fighting with the Clan It was tough, I will admit To hold down thru the lows But the “spreadsheet” kept me long and strong As I watched it grow I sent an email to Ed Jobs During my hour of need He reassured me, it will come And he was right indeed From SuperSOL to just plain SOL And Poly to the Moon Tariff Wars and many Closed Doors It seemed all Doom and Gloom I heard it all, every day Why CSI would fail Now I tip my glass, (thanks sc) Patience did prevail Thank you all, who saw it too And stuck thru Thick and Thin It really helped me to stay strong When it looked like we’d never win I’m happy for your new found wealth And the security it does bring Sometimes investing does pay off Instead of the STEO trading thing For all the rest, I wish you well Sincere Thanks to many here All the knowledge selflessly shared A site the bashers feared From the Fantasy Analyst who doubted Qu To Pitchel’s half-truth lies And Gordo’s pleas on national TV It was fun to watch them cry…. More to come in 2014 and beyond. This is just the beginning of a multi-year run imho for the leading solars as global demand continues to rapidly grow due to; grid parity being breached, environmental awareness for renewables as the earth continues to warm with devastating storms and weather patterns, as clouds of smog close down cities, as billions with no access to power will now have access anywhere to clean power, and as the lies of special interest groups are being replaced by fact resulting in huge public support. The upside for the next decade or so is huge…. Happy New Year All! nano
  49. 3 points
    Wow, this is like sending the students to detention for fighting. Agreed Forest/Larry with the 2nd part, anyone can massage the numbers how they want. You have been a vocal proponent for SOL just the same now and in the past with your Poly predictions and how that will help SOL and may hurt CSIQ. You have your reasons for your beliefs. Nobody is attacking you. July same thing. Personally, like many here, I believe many if not all of these solars will see great growth through 2014. Some more than others. I am not sure why several people here are attacking Josh for being bullish on CSIQ and sharing much valuable insight on other stocks as well usually when asked a direct question. If he has said over and over he likes Jaso but just not the best, what is wrong with that? He has shared his own reasoning for why he feels this way/ and risk/reward or waiting to see more things from certain companies. Larry, face it...many analysts have no idea what is going on and havent for some time. Only recently, we are starting to see some better coverage of the space and I suspect by April 2014 they will be coming out of the woodwork for many names and plugging them. As to part #1/ Nomura who has a great handle on Asia-Pacific/Japan business(I can't find the link for original research note but I have it in front of my face their first one dated Jan17, 2013. This was before the $25 upgrade and 50M of shelf. They have listed 2014F EPS at $5.61. after the 50M offering this should be closer to $5.10. In the same research they anticipated 2014F Margins at 18.4%. Lets face it the industry and fundamentals have improved drastically since then.This was before we saw Margins start to improve for all CN solars and earnings are starting to roll in positive. Its early...real early! Watch and see what can happen. My opinion is its gotten a bit more than fresh thoughts and opposing views on this site....its more attacking and I think its not really fair to Josh. Some of you are way to sensitive and need to just explain your reasons why you like your particular solar. I hope in the end they all go up and we all make money instead of attacking. I want to thank Josh for all his input with regard to what is going on in China which is a huge market going forward. This is a wealth of information on China (even with specific province knowledge etc). This info will be valuable going forward. As well, Id like to thank many of you: Eyesteih's Brilliance on technical aspects and processes that make my head spin, Odyd, Nano(of course), Sleepy, Sunny, for individual stocks, technicals, July for her love of Jaso and explanation of its potential. Even you Forest, if you d stop being such a wanker!! Lets get to Christmas and then blow up 2014!!! Not each other!!!
  50. 3 points
    Settlement Conclusion Quite a few things were made clear by Karel de Gucht’s press conference on July 29 and the industry and analysts comments that followed. Press conference announcement: http://ec.europa.eu/avservices/video/player.cfm?ref=I081070 Press conference Q&A: http://ec.europa.eu/avservices/video/player.cfm?ref=I081071 Karel de Gucht was clear that the purpose of the settlement was to achieve the same injury elimination objective as the tariffs would. He was also clear that illegal dumping from Chinese producers had caused injury to the EU solar industry. More surprisingly he clearly stated that neither the tariffs nor the settlement deal were designed to make EU producers competitive by carving out some exclusive market for them. The measures are designed to eliminate injury effect of illegal dumping. EU producers still have to be competitive on a global basis if they want to survive. If they are, they had now been given a window to recover from the injury they suffered. The Settlement Construction De Gucht described the deal as splitting the EU market into two parts. One 7 GW part where 90 Chinese producers participating in the deal will be able to sell panels free of tariffs, but the panels must be sold at a minimum price. In this part of the market he expects the 90 Chinese companies to be competitive and EU producers to have difficulty to compete. That leaves EU producers with the other 3-5 GW size part of the EU market where tariffs will be imposed on Chinese panels. Here the EU producers still need to be competitive with Taiwanese, Korean and Japanese suppliers as well as the remaining 50 Chinese producers not participating in the deal and thus paying tariff. De Gucht frequently referred to these two parts of the new EU market, but never mentioned their size directly, but all reports have talked about the slices mentioned above. The deal thus let the 70% of the Chinese producers in on the deal have a 60% market-share in EU under the assumption that the minimum price is not too high for them to hit that 7 GW cap. Analyst from Deutsche Bank says the 7 GW cap would mean no market-share loss in EU for these companies due to the decline of the EU market. De Gucht confirmed that the deal will last until end of 2015 and the minimum price in most reports is said to be based at 56 Euro cents with a market adjustable component to adapt to decreases in FiT and production costs. A lot of details remain to be disclosed. Besides confirmation of the 7 GW cap and base minimum price of 56 Euro cents the adaptation mechanism of minimum price should be disclosed as well as how different product categories will be treated, like mono (high performance) vs multi (low performance) panels and if cells and wafers can be exported with similar price undertaking. The question boils down to, assuming Chinese panels fill their 7 GW quota, which Chinese panels will that be? The most practical answer to that would be those panels that the EU panel buyers are willing to buy at the minimum price. Who won? A lot of comments were made on the deal from different camps. Roughly the following camps can be identified: [*]EU panel producers [*]EU panel buyers (installers) [*]Chinese tier 1 panel producers [*]Chinese lower tier panel producers [*]Taiwanese and other low cost Asian panel producers [*]US and other similar to EU high cost panel producers Chinese panel producers have been quiet, but you can sense that tier 1 is positive compared to the alternative of tariffs, since if they can compete at the minimum price they can sell high at low cost. This assumes that their share of the 7 GW is decided by market demand. With tariffs they would have had to incur significant costs to compete in EU, thus not collecting much profit from that market, now EU could be a potential cash cow market and at the same time push global prices for Chinese tier 1 panels higher than if they did not have the EU outlet. Reports say that the Chinese side of the price guarantee negotiation was lead by Chinese tier 1 producers, which could explain both why they would be quiet and positive about the result. Lower tier Chinese producers see both tariffs and minimum price as closing the EU market for them, since they compete on low price and both measures eliminate that option. This means their market shrinks with the 10-12 GW expected EU market size and they as a group don’t have much global strength expect for the very mature EU market with its plentiful sales channels and will likely focus solely on East/South East Asian markets and their domestic market in particular. Many of these weaker players will likely have to go under in their now smaller habitat of increasingly fierce competition. Besides tier level that relates to brand value and bankability, there are two distinct product categories – mono and multi crystalline panels. Mono crystalline means that the cell is based on a slice of a single crystal, which gives the cell superior conversion efficiency performance, but also cost 5-10 US cents per watt more to make. This 5-10 cents higher cost happens to roughly represent the added value of the higher performance from an IRR perspective, especially for rooftops. Thus with an equal minimum price and all else equal (tier level) the mono product category should be demanded first. Mono products might even compensate for slightly lower tier level. Taiwan producers say that Chinese tier 1 will be able to compete at the minimum price in EU and not need their services as they would if tariffs were imposed. They’ll likely have to sell panels to EU themselves and try to compete in the 3-5 GW part of the market, since they lack brand and have higher cost and thus cannot compete on price or quality with Chinese tier 1 selling at the minimum price. Other western producers have not said much. In case of tariffs a new opportunity in EU for US and Japanese producers would open up, but now they’ll likely focus on their edge in their domestic markets. To conclude, the deal, compared to the alternative of hefty tariffs, should benefit Chinese tier 1 producers most and mono products would be first in demand at the equal price. It might even be possible that they benefit compared to no tariffs at least in a longer-term perspective, since their competition from lower tier Chinese producers is impaired and their margins are forced up by forced move of profits from EU panel buyers to China panel producers. Biggest losers compared to tariffs are EU panel producers and Taiwanese cell producers. Biggest losers compared to no tariffs are Chinese lower tier producers and EU panel buyers.


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