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Mark

Solar Investor
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    389
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    11

Mark last won the day on July 13

Mark had the most liked content!

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  • Location :
    South Carolina

Portfolio

  • Portfolio %
    FSLR 70%, CSIQ 20%, JKS, 5%, SPWR 5%

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  1. Mark

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Let's say things bottom in Q4 as it seems like there's some consensus around. During the last cycle, when did shares prices start rising again? I can obviously see the stock charts, but don't have clear recollection of when ASPs actually bottomed to make the correlation.
  2. Mark

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    https://www.smarteranalyst.com/brief/oppenheimer-thinks-canadian-solar-incs-stock-is-going-to-recover/ “As the solar industry navigates a sizable air pocket in demand due to China policy changes and waits for clarity on India domestic production mandates, CSIQ is making prudent investments in technology which we believe will position it well for the next upcycle. We believe the company’s multi-PERC technology offers the potential to differentiate its product by having efficiency near mono-silicon modules at a meaningful cost advantage. We note CSIQ has historically been a leader in technology-driven cost reduction for silicon module technology and maximizing performance of lower purity materials. This leadership appears to be true again, going through this cycle. We remain constructive on the shares, looking for a bottom in module pricing and capacity during 4Q18.”
  3. Mark

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Truer words were never spoken. It's been pretty frustrating investing/trading the solars over the years.
  4. Mark

    Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Blah. Well, at least the margins are still good. 🙄 Buy up shares, Qu, buy up shares.
  5. Mark

    First Solar (FSLR)

    So are we worried about their big Turkey supply deal or no?
  6. Mark

    Hanwha Q CELLS (HQCL)

    Bye Bye HQCL... joining the parade. SEOUL, South Korea, Aug. 2, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Hanwha Q CELLS Co., Ltd. ("Hanwha Q CELLS" or the "Company") (NASDAQ: HQCL), a global leading photovoltaic manufacturer of high-performance, high-quality solar modules, today announced that its board of directors (the "Board") has received a preliminary non-binding proposal letter (the "Proposal Letter"), dated August 2, 2018, from Hanwha Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. ("HSH"), a subsidiary of Hanwha Chemical Corporation incorporated in the Republic of Korea, to acquire all of the outstanding shares of the Company not already owned by HSH in a "going private" transaction (the "Proposed Transaction") for a cash consideration of US$9.00 per American Depositary Share ("ADS", each ADS representing fifty ordinary shares) or US$0.18 per ordinary share. A copy of the Proposal Letter is attached hereto as Exhibit A.
  7. Mark

    Daqo (DQ)

    Agreed, sunnypease. But pete brings up a point I have been interested in... at what price would you sell Klothilde? Is there any price you'd sell or is this a buy it and forget it type purchase for your kids when they're of age? What's your plan if I/we may ask?
  8. Mark

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Ok, so I read the transcript a couple of times again last night. Are we all feeling like this is just what they said it would be? The weakest/low point of earnings? Obviously if they can't get their technical issue fixed, that's a big problem, but it sounded to me like they weren't terrified of that. The only thing they did say would be a potential risk is that JP project timing that may roll into 2019 and affect FY guidance. But that's typical lumpy solar stuff as they said it wouldn't affect the economics. Of course the market will do what analysts and big money want it to do, but to me, it really sounds like things are on the right track with slight hiccups due to the technical issue and project timing. Project timing, anyone who has been around solar for any amount of time knows that's how it goes. I'm not about to add shares here, but I don't think I'm going to sell anything either. They feel like this is the bottom as far as their business and their contracts are locked up. With cancellation penalties on those, it seems to me like so long as PV prices don't totally collapse, it wouldn't be of great financial benefit to cancel FSLR and buy CSIQ panels or what have you. By the time you pay the penalty, you're cutting into your potential savings. One thing I wish they'd do is put out regular press releases when they have a big module agreement or pick up a project. I didn't know about the South Carolina one... and hell, I even live here in SC. Why they're so quiet about their transactions between conference calls really bugs me and doesn't exactly encourage new investors to come in. Why did we have to wait for that comment about China impact for a full month? What Widmar said could have been said the day or three after the announcement! Their IR sucks.
  9. Mark

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Yeah, I kinda zoned out when he was explaining the back end issues with that tool. Got a bit in the weeds for me, just tell me its gonna be fixed.. which he seemed to say would be beginning of Q4 I believe. I'm thinking through all of this again and getting a little irritated (with the market/analysts) that not much has changed with the company since it was $80/sh and everyone was in love - in fact, one could say there are actually some positives that have emerged when most of them were expecting total fear. The SE Asia "pause" is to be expected and is a small segment. He didn't give the impression that existing contracts were being re-negotiated or squeezed. Darn near fully booked to end of 2020. I also didn't get the impression that margins would be collapsing or project sales were in limbo/turmoil. I'll have to read the transcript again later, but in a challenging environment it seems like they're perfectly positioned to handle it. I didn't fully grasp the response to the Goldman Sucks question re: shifting the S4 to S6 lines faster. I want to say he didn't say they would be... seemed like they just planned on maintaining the current course. They'll move the stock where they want, but I'm not sure why my $69 shares are worth $50 right now after hearing the call.
  10. Mark

    First Solar (FSLR)

    I didn't think this was a bad call at all... typical lumpy revenue recognition and some Series 6 hiccups as expected, but by in large I felt that call was ... good? SEems like little has changed after China, except a 'pause' in the global market, but US is still strong. Gotta feed the kids, but I dunno... don't feel like anyone should be in a panic to sell becuase they're dropping the ball. On the contrary, I was re-assured everything is ok after the call. Market probably won't care, since all they care about is lumpy Q earnings, but I'm not terrified the world is ending.
  11. Mark

    Daqo (DQ)

    CHONGQING, China, July 13, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Daqo New Energy Corp. (NYSE: DQ) ("Daqo New Energy" or the "Company"), a leading manufacturer of high-purity polysilicon for the global solar PV industry, today announced updates to its previous polysilicon and wafer sales guidance for the second quarter of 2018 and reiterates its full year 2018 polysilicon production guidance. The Company estimates that its polysilicon sales to external customers during the second quarter of 2018 will be approximately 3,800 MT to 3,900 MT, as compared to the previous guidance of approximately 5,300 MT to 5,500 MT. The Company sold approximately 2,600 MT of polysilicon during the first two weeks of July and reduced inventory to low levels. The Company produced 5,659 MT of polysilicon during the second quarter of 2018, within the range of its previously announced guidance of 5,600 MT to 5,800 MT. The Company reiterates its full year 2018 polysilicon production guidance of 22,000 to 23,000 MT, which takes into account the impact of annual facility maintenance. The Company also estimates that its wafer sales volume during the second quarter of 2018 amounted to approximately 9.5 million to 10.0 million pieces, as compared to the previous guidance of approximately 15.0 million to 20.0 million pieces. The above updates are mainly attributable to the new solar PV policies issued by the Chinese government on May 31, 2018, which are expected to reduce solar installation quotas and feed-in tariffs in China during the second half of 2018. The policies created significant uncertainty in the domestic solar market and negatively impacted downstream demand. As a result, the Company's customers adjusted production plans and utilization levels, and due to the volatility of polysilicon average selling prices, a significant number of customer orders were not confirmed until the beginning of July. Mr. Longgen Zhang, Chief Executive Officer of Daqo New Energy, commented, "We remain confident in the long-term sustainable growth of polysilicon industry despite the new policies' impact on shipments in the short-term. The new policies created significant uncertainty in the market and disrupted our downstream customer's production plans. At the same time, polysilicon average selling prices saw increased volatility in June but have since stabilized over the past two weeks." "Leveraging our strong cash position, we maintained our production schedule believing that polysilicon ASPs would eventually stabilize and delayed shipments until demand returned in early July. During the first two weeks of July, polysilicon prices stabilized and our shipments returned to normal levels. We are currently running at full production capacity with low levels of inventory, which allows us to reiterate our full year production guidance. The sudden change in policy hasn't impacted our long-term strategic plan to strengthen our leadership position in the industry by further increasing our capacity, improving our cost structure and polysilicon purity."
  12. Mark

    Solar News

    Yingli finally delisted and headed for the pink sheets.
  13. Mark

    First Solar (FSLR)

    Ya'll are depressing the heck out of me, but I thank you for the number crunching as its the only valuable information I've come to find and trust.
  14. Mark

    Solar News

    I don't think any of this has to do with the add'l 25% tariff because its not really going to affect these guys. I think that's just a smoke screen. That's just another barrier for whatever other tier 2 types may be dumping here, because everyone else jumped ship to SE Asia last time tariffs were put in place. I think FSLR is just trying to find its sea legs again and see where the bottom is. "They" kept us from breaching the VWAP all day after the big tumble this morning. We'd hit the VWAP and each and every time, a sell order would execute and knock us down a few cents. VERY tightly controlled pricing today by the algo(s). I suspect tomorrow we open up down some amount and they'll test the lower end of the range. Just in time for me to hop in the car on friday and drive 6 hours for vacation with the kids and wife. I was hoping we'd find 53 and stick there, just so I could have this garbage off my mind over the next week. I like the declining volume and some of the divergences and the Balance of Power (the Worden version) has kinda indicated that there may be some light accumulation going on the past few days. But who the heck knows, they'll do what they want with it. If this were a normal time, I'd say today and the last few days looks like quiet accumulation. But these aren't normal times, so it could also very well be quiet distribution.
  15. Mark

    Solar News

    Anything changed in the last few days to make you reconsider holding your FSLR? I keep waiting for a bounce that doesn't come to lighten my load a bit. I (think) I like that volume is drying up, but in theory that could just mean we're at the middle of the decline and have another leg lower. Analysts are no good, because they're all over the place and just a bunch of liars most of the time anyway. And forget getting any info out of FSLR investor relations, they're MIA just like management. Maybe they only have bad news too? Dunno what to think. I know I WANT to think they have good relationships and a solid enough brand to keep those and not have to put massive discounts on everything, but maybe I'm dreaming.
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