Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation since 03/02/2017 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    Trump is a self-centered greedy narcissist who knows damn well the damage coal plant emissions cause--he just doesn't care, as long as they don't affect HIM. Try putting up a smokestack next to one of his properties and see how "coal-friendly" he is then! Fortunately, the power of the Federal government in dictating the future of renewables has greatly decreased over the past decade, as the price point has finally come down to where wind and solar are on par with fossils, especially coal. Just google "Kentucky coal plant shutdowns" to get an idea of what's going on even in the heart of coal country. The future of renewables is now in the hands of state regulators and local utility boards. Those that were reluctant to move away from coal will continue to be so. But those that see the promise of both cheap and clean energy will continue to pursue that path, with or without the Feds. And I think that by and large, the market knows this. I'd be surprised if solars tank just based on this one action by the Idiot in Chief.
  2. 1 point
    For those who tracked my article, I miscalculated Q4 for ASP for Canadian. It came at healthy $0.417, and CSIQ beat JKS on average at 1 cent per watt for the whole of 2016. I suspect this will remain to be the pattern, explained in my article, as the impact of mono adds on to JKS is not going to make a lot of difference, while I suspect black silicon multi could get a lot more than just multi bought being PERC. This is ASP talk, not the cost talk. I think that CSIQ is a sole supplier of own cells in 2016 when it comes to black silicon (not wafers), I have not observed anyone making black silicon sales in a big way. So this provides more support for my theory of cost and the ASP. The cost will be lower than standard multi and priced higher than standard multi.
  3. 1 point
    The third article from Bond, it exactly talks about black silicon https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/multi-vs-mono-part-3-dw-slicing-now-never-xiaodong-bond-wang?trk=v-feed&lipi=urn%3Ali%3Apage%3Ad_flagship3_feed%3BCDbOI%2FeRGmNMqV7rBT2E5A%3D%3D "DW slicing + Black Silicon Process + PERC With a 18.4% of basic multi cell efficiency, plus average gain of 0.5% from black silicon, plus 0.2% from PERC, here comes 20.1%. An efficiency 0.4% behind mono (PERC), while cell cost 10-15% lower, it could be a winning point. Though multi grain feature decides that fact that multi DW slicing is less impacting than mono, it’s still a quantum leap once mass production achieved. Plus, pressure from mono increases exponentially since China government’s FRP project came along. And more panels are shutting down multi lines and switching to mono."
  4. 1 point
    Hi Jet. The switch was strategic after evaluating management performance over the past 11 years of CN4 + FSLR. This was triggered by Jinko now monetizing its downstream efforts since 2011. Before Q4 they hadn't monetized $1 of that. CSIQ used to monetize immediately, but now have a lot of not yet monetized investments on BS, so the comparison might not be totally fair. I haven't crunched CSIQ Q4 numbers yet, but I doubt they'll tilt the 11 years total much. Maybe if I included potential profit of not yet monetized assets on BS CSIQ would look a bit better but 11 years is a long enough period to diluted current BS status quite a bit. Regarding influence of guidance for 2017 that would be a more tactical move and I'm more and more into strategic allocation so I'm not looking too much at that. Rather I see guidance as a price driver which can result in a long-term performer becoming cheap due to short-term headwinds. My 11 year analysis roughly resulted in a JKS PT of around $30 and a CSIQ PT of around $8, so the spread needs to increase further for a switch back to be motivated from that strategic allocation of price vs long-term performance. My view is that it is not so much CSIQ's performance that is the problem, rather its stock price compared to the other CN3. JASO's performance is a bit of an issue, but the extreme discount fully compensates for this. Yet it is unlikely that the discount will go away anytime soon unless they continue and accelerate the high performance of recent years to compensate for poor return on early high capitalization. To be realistic its a buy out bet due to its severe discount. It's also a lower risk play due to the strong BS. It diversifies the volatility profile of the stocks a bit. And that volatility diff can be tapped as trading opportunities.
  5. 1 point
    I should say that CSIQ like all others buys mono cells. They have mostly mono modules advertised on their site. Companies like NSP are going to supply to them mono PERC cells for the residual 2,5GW of their business. I suppose the wafer and making an investment in DSW and black silicon, plus-multi PERC cell lines are their capacity growth path, while JKS is mono- PERC. When I look at the Q4 numbers and take all the adjustments out all of the Chinese companies would be breaking even. So I guess the point, which could be held against by critics of CSIQ is that they can make money with selling their plants only. Some people did not see an issue when FSLR was doing it, now when CSIQ is doing it is apparently a weakness. Perhaps it is an acumen. It means that CSIQ can make more money than anyone in the industry in 2017. For those who have read Travis, as usual being confused and sad as it is beloved SPWR is heading below $6, he made some nonsense comments about debt. CSIQ has over $1.3B in debt supporting plants. Plants which are about $1.7B worth, even at 10% GM this is about $500M cash flow. Deduction of those debts would put CSIQ debt over JKS by $400M. The $500M cash would make the asset positive. Considering that CSIQ has $400M in paper money and JKS has about $1.1B, I feel a lot better about that. I am excited. Things are looking a bit like 2013 from the level of the public pessimism. I feel like now it is the time to hunt the opening positions. I made my first step today. If things drop I will average.
  6. 1 point
    I get to understand the talk CSIQ did for the mono/ HP cell and how they are moving into PERC p-type mc-Si. The HP multi-cell costs $0.20 per watt; mono BSF one does $0.24. PERC mono cell cost about $0.31 per watt. Not sure what they sell for, but JKS pricing mechanism produced about $0.41 per watt versus CSIQ about $0.396. Modules were selling at $0.367 and $0.387 multi and mono. Mono is slightly more expensive. I suppose JASO is betting about 800MW in mono PERC, JKS does 2.5GW and some 3GW mono wafers. Based on the predictions, this year HP mc-Si PERC module will produce as much as BSF mono. The problem is that mono wafers are scarce. JASO is not expanding wafer capacities, and I think this is the reason why their mono PERC cell capacity is not that high in SE Asia. JKS is going big on mono PERC, 2.5GW cell capacity. Their wafer will support this big time. However, while I suspect their ASP could end up higher, mind you CSIQ brand may carry a premium, their cost could also be a bit higher on the 50% split on cell tech. The picture below tells the story why would CSIQ going a different path could do better. I do not think this is some swim or sink bet, but has no mono bet, at least for now.
  7. 1 point
    The problem isn't demand, despite the word "glut" still being used frequently. JKS certainly isn't seeing a glut, at least not for its products. The problem is falling margins, requiring ever-increasing shipment volumes to maintain the same level of profit. Usually, as shipments rise, so do profits. Not so for this industry. That trend has to eventually change--to use a calculus analogy, you can't reach the limit of infinite shipments with infinitesimal profits per unit shipped. The question becomes, what happens to each individual company as we approach that limit? Do they go under, or do they survive and emerge into a new, stable balance between ASPs and costs? And when does this happen?
  8. 1 point
    Love JA's transparency: they gave a very detailed ASPs for both Q1 and Q2 by country like no one else before; CFO was openly questioning President; finally both (CFO and President) have no clue what's holding up Chairman/CEO from completing a buyout (both hinted that current low Market Cap is a non-issue if Chairman really wanted to).
  9. 1 point
    "Buyout" is turning into a total BS.
  10. 1 point
    answer Included in operating expenses in the fourth quarter of 2016 were a one-time reversal of RMB 348.3 million ($50.2 million) of previously recorded expenses due to the resolution of the Company’s dispute with Hemlock Semiconductor Pte. Ltd (“Hemlock”), and a one-time charge of RMB 99.6 million ($14.3 million) resulted from the termination of business relationship with one of the Company’s business partners.
  11. 1 point
    I'll take it. Without the buyout, TSL would likley be at 5 or 6. Within this downturn, I've realized gains on TERP, GLBL and TSL during the last couple weeks. It's nice to see that alongside some paper losses on others in the sector. I was also able to add to TSL when it briefly dipped into the 9's. I'd love to know what the deal is with JASO -- obviously that old bid is off the table.
  12. 1 point
    Also can use investor.firstsolar.com/sec.cfm and set up sec filing alerts etc , have this kind of alert set up for key stocks, the nasdaq site always gives me trouble loading.
  13. 1 point
    I sold NEP I am buying CSIQ Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
  14. 1 point
  15. 1 point
    Where can you see that?
  16. 1 point
    Basically the concern with CSIQ after JKS deleveraged balance sheet and reach close to $30 book value per share is that it stands out in valuation. I did an IRR analysis of shareholder value growth the past 11 years (we are getting some significant history to work with now) and the rank is: JKS, FSLR, CSIQ, JASO. Then looking at PB you have: CSIQ, FSLR, JKS, JASO. Between CSIQ and JKS CSIQ is higher priced for less performance. The other have either less risky BS or bigger discount motivating their PPS.
  17. 1 point
    Canadian is behind the reporting schedule for Q4, I wonder
  18. 1 point
    My strategic allocation is 60% CN3 equally split and 40% FSLR. Then that strategic allocation is adjusted slight based on relative valuation changes. JKS doing better and FSLR worse since my reference levels have resulted in actual allocation right now being 23/16/19/42 JASO/JKS/CSIQ/FSLR. Since I haven't changed my strategic allocation FSLR became the better buy by being up less than JKS.
  19. 1 point
    Jinko expanded their 350MW record low bid project by 3.4x... http://www.pv-tech.org/news/jinkosolar-in-deal-to-build-1.2gwp-solar-plant-in-abu-dhabi Verrry interesting
  20. 1 point
    JKS won't be affected by the decision, they only sold 16mw here last Q but all with outsourced Cells using their own Wafer. EU's decision in Febuary will have 3 month retroactive effects, that's why the Chinese have been busy dumping, I think they've finished that just before the Nation day holiday. The longer than expected shutdown during this holiday may also help with inventory build-up, it's reasonable they rally a little now along with the genral market. :love:
  21. 1 point
    Based on months of observation, HSOL, CSIQ, CSUN have been positive year to date, SOL has been flip-flopping around the positive'negative line with loss of 4.58% ytd. JKS has shown strength but still lost 22.2% ytd. It seems to me that STP and DQ are trying hard to maintain $1 listing requirement, STP can surely do reverse split, don't DQ can do that. JASO is trading at 86c, it might get de-listing notice if it doesn't move over $1 shortly, we'll see if the funds will support it.