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Showing content with the highest reputation since 08/18/2019 in all areas

  1. 2 points
    Great big picture read for clean energy: http://rameznaam.com/2019/04/02/the-third-phase-of-clean-energy-will-be-the-most-disruptive-yet/
  2. 2 points
    Well the RMB depreciated by 1.4% over the past week. You would expect to see the average ASP decline within that range. When you subtract out the 1.4% devaluation of the RMB, those drops do not look that bad. https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=1W Those numbers look very promising for downstream module producers. The trends are necessary to reach True grid parity with storage in most of the world and especially in China. By my estimates they are making Mono Perc modules for about $0.20 now. That is based on the $0.11 for Chinese Perc cells. That $0.23 China ASP with that manufacturing cost is 15% margins. That foreign average ASP of $0.25 is greater than 25% margins. The U.S. is the higher price range so even that market is likely more profitable than any market around even with the tariff. That U.S. market has surged and has price increases due to a rush to get projects in under the ITC planned reduction in 2020. Looking at those numbers, I only see positives for the next 6 months for the module manufacturers like CSIQ which had improved margins and JKS which is likely to beat their margin guidance.
  3. 1 point
    When it comes to data points and trends Kloth is generally accurate.
  4. 1 point
    Actually, there's news... Friday GCL chief said Klothilde is right. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/09/10/eric-luo-china-will-see-just-20-25-gw-of-solar-per-year-through-2025/
  5. 1 point
    I was using 4GW based on the 3500MW current guidance. I also left out the interest(me bad) Using lower shipments and interest, yes 3.6 to 3.7 is more likely near term. I view internal costs as low as $0.19 if not now in the next 6 months. $0.06 wafer $0.05 cell $0.08 module
  6. 1 point
    Jinko winning another tender in China for 80MW of 320W mono PERC modules. They bid at 1.83 yuan/W or $0.227/W ex VAT. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190906/1005319.shtml Some will say this is horrible, some will say this is great. And that's perfectly fine.
  7. 1 point
    Here is an interesting two article in China. It appears that the State governments of China are starting to buy the PV plants out from under the private companies and removing the risk and liability of not getting tariffs. . This may be a means to avoid paying the massive amounts of FIT and getting cash into the hands of companies and out of some debts. They are also transferring some geothermal plants out of hands of private companies and it is believed this is part of a process to push grid solar. This is an interesting change in policies that needs more monitoring. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190903/1004325.shtml http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190903/1004368.shtml
  8. 1 point
    CSIQ $32 PT this morning. https://mayfieldrecorder.com/2019/09/03/canadian-solar-nasdaqcsiq-price-target-raised-to-32-00.html
  9. 1 point
    That's exactly right. FSLR is currently fully priced expecting great results in the next year. If those results come in as expected, great, but I don't see the share price rising much more, BECAUSE those results are already priced in. (Or at least if it rises, it will be due to momentum, not fundamentals.) If, on the other hand, those results are less than expected, the share price will certainly decrease, perhaps crater. But that cash in the bank provides FSLR investors a certain safety net--even with continued poor profits for a few more quarters, the financial viability of the company is not in question. Without it, FSLR is the risk equivalent of TSLA. The criticism of JKS and CSIQ misses my point, however. No matter what the motivation of company leadership, their RESULTS have indeed been better than FSLR the past couple of quarters. That is simply undeniable. So if you want to criticize them, management intention is one avenue, although if memory serves, FSLR has done its share of misleading investors in the past--but poo-pooing their results simply invites the obvious comparison I made. All IMHO as well, of course.
  10. 1 point
    Haha, ouch, that's Pete 2, Klothilde 0. Let's hear it queen of solar... take a deep breath... CSIQ should be the easy one you can say something positive about. No? Just give us one thing about one company. We'll all feel a lot better. I bet Pete will meet you halfway and say all that cash in the FSLR bank account is something to envy. Good stuff, hah.
  11. 1 point
    Will you ever say something positive about any stock BUT FSLR?
  12. 1 point
    In other words, better than FSLR--again.
  13. 1 point
    Second 2019 Half Margin Expansion Could Benefit Canadian Solar Investors https://seekingalpha.com/article/4286991-second-2019-half-margin-expansion-benefit-canadian-solar-investors?app=1#alt2
  14. 1 point
    I think you are right with Japanese margins coming in higher than 30% now. There's one data point embedded in the Q3 guidance that points to GMs north of 40%. Taking midpoints they are guiding $795M in Revenue @25% GM which increases to $985M @ 28% GM if they manage to close the sale of one project on time. This implies an incremental revenue of $190M at 40.6%GM for the named project. Imo this can only be the 56MW yamaguchi project that's still on their books: https://investors.canadiansolar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/canadian-solar-converts-golf-course-56mwp-solar-power-plant This stretches the icing from $200M to $270M. "...Total revenue for the third quarter is expected to be in the range of $780 million to $810 million. Gross margin for the third quarter is expected to be between 24% and 26%, reflecting the positive impact of planned higher gross margin project sales primarily in Japan and the U.S. The aforementioned revenue forecast does not include the potential sales of a project that may be completed in the third quarter. If the transaction is closed in time, total revenue for the third quarter is expected to be in the range of $970 million to $1 billion and gross margin between 27% and 29%..."
  15. 1 point
    I think that 30% GM is much to low. I believe their margins are higher pushing the costs to produce 10-20% lower than you are modeling. With future cost to construct decreasing, it is possible to offset that and maintain good double digit margins.

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