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  1. 2 points
    We did not get into poly, we talked about the projects. He was very interested in my interpretation and offer support with what he heard. He said that KEPCO is high single digit and Shenzhen is a low double-digit, but CFO said some revenue have no margin, which is basically what I am trying to say. I explained to him that KEPCO bought all tax equity projects, and Shenzhen has one, Mustang. He thinks Q1 will be bigger ( I assumed GM) but he thought even on revenues. He said the market does not understand the potential of those sales and thought what my article shown was the best analysis he seen from anyone. I explained that Roth and Oppenheimer have high prices, but he chuckled commenting they did not do a lot of work on those. We talked for the first time ever today.
  2. 2 points
    I disagree with GM on plants, opex, and GM in modules. Again despite the description that Opex stays flat when plants are sold, this is being increased in multiples. GM 12% in Q4 and flat Opex company can make more. I think your adverse approach to everything, seeing failure in every other company by quoting things in isolation to prove your point, have me say that glass is half empty in your statements. You quoted an article, which has nothing to do with the CSIQ doing business but someone in India winning bids. 2/3 of those will never get built. Half of them had counted to build with modules worth $0.25 per watt, and they complain that Chinese neg the module supply. CSIQ won Dubai supply and it was the one of the lowest. Their GM survived. When plants sell at $0.80 watt, CSIQ will be there to make money on it. When that time comes.
  3. 2 points
    Sold half my FSLR last night. Doh! Sold the rest around 57. Now that everyone here has sold their FSLR, it'll go to 100, right?
  4. 2 points
    At this point, CSIQ needs to make the progress in selling plants and collecting money. Every time they do that they are a better company, and should be a better stock. Again Trumps out there do not see far down the road. They pay for FSLR 7% in the aftermarket but may sell off tomorrow, because of revenue and EPS for Q4. I like FSLR to get high valuation because I think it will in comparison show value of CSIQ. In fact, I am for completely different PE all together. FSLR will have PE of 19.61 this year, and I am hoping for 9.82 if CSIQ is able to do numbers form my article. So if for any reason CSIQ gets higher PE and numbers support we will have good days. It is frustrating and I hope that balance sheet will be more convincing in time.
  5. 2 points
    Sold PEGI on the up tick bought even more CSIQ below $16. ONE DAY the market will get it or not.
  6. 2 points
    Canadian Solar Inc. priced its initial public offering of 177,800 investment units at 100,000 Japanese yen per unit, before underwriting discounts. Of the units included in the offering, Canadian Solar will purchase 25,395 units as the designated purchaser. The units of CSIF are expected to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on October 30, 2017. CSIF plans to use the net proceeds from the offering and anticipated borrowings of JPY 17.7 billion (approximately $156 million) to consummate the acquisition of its initial portfolio. Subsidiaries of Canadian Solar in Japan are contributing 13 solar power projects with a total installed capacity of 72.7 MWp to CSIF as its initial portfolio. Net sale proceeds to Canadian Solar from these assets amounted to JPY 30.4 billion (approximately $270 million). Canadian Solar expects to use a part of the net sale proceeds to immediately reduce its overall debt leverage by JPY 18.7 billion (approximately $165 million) and to further strengthen its liquidity.
  7. 2 points
    It sounds that CSIF will be selling units for 100,000 yen or $877. This now translates to about $163M IPO. Elsewhere is has been said CSIF raised $17.8B yen or $156M, not sure if this after or before the fees. Also due to exchange volumes differ.
  8. 2 points
    It is going to be interesting how the market is going to react to all those CSIQ plant sales. It will be more important for investors to see how balance sheet looks like after major sale happens. I think most know those sales are coming, including sale side. I guess they have a choice as always to work the stock and hope it will not go up before they can sell it. I think at the end of the day when all is said and done, CSIQ will increase its equity via retained earnings which should double in my view (over $600M), to about $1.2 to $1.3B for equity. will get about $800M in cash, to bring the same amount $1.3B in total not counting restricted, with it $1.7B. All by lowering the debt by $1.3B. Those are big changes. Having stock stay in the same place seems unlikely and should drive the share price up. I think since most know it, only confused frustrated or those who need cash sell now.
  9. 1 point
    Unbelievable I was right JASO used own money to get off the exchange.
  10. 1 point
    I just had a creepy idea. Subsidiaries of Jinglong supply wafers and Jinglong is the parent company and home of the Chairman. Nobody has paid enough attention to the fact that JASO invested $148M in inventory, but I continue to muse over it. Why would JASO dedicate to sink 26% of its cash into inventory this time a year? Well, if Jinglong is the seller, JASO just handed half of its capitalization in cash for the market cap of $330M. Jinglong owns 16% and Baofang owns 16% himself, so 32% will vote yes.
  11. 1 point
    Thanks for your reply. I feel the same way as you. Just wanted to hear others' opinions.
  12. 1 point
    I like provocation as an attempt to defuse $500M in cash injection.
  13. 1 point
    I just showed you a path to your Opex you presented plus $2 a share in earnings. I would expect saving on Opex per watt to continue the downward trajectory by increased volumes, efficenceis and regional sales. I expect General Admin to remain stable to a slight increase from the $53M per quarter to $55M in 2020. That is $220M I expect sales/W to drop from the current $0.0229/W by 10% a year and reach $0.0167/W in 2020. This will add $200M on shipments of 12GW. This rate of decline in sales per watt is actually slower than the trend rate of the past 3 years. If the trend of the last 3 years is met, the sales per watt would be $0.01375 on a near double of volume. In Q3 2014 the sales per watt watt $0.046/W. I expect RnD to maintain at $7.5M a quarter for $30M a year I would expect that Interest runs at $20-$25M a year once they deleverage their current debt from projects and roll into lower cost projects and debt per MW. This leads me to believe that Opex and interest in 2020 would run $530M to $550M . This difference in my added Operational and Interest expenses is 10% higher than the $500M you suggested. This could be offset by added power revenues from build and hold projects that are currently generating $30M a year in revenue.
  14. 1 point
  15. 1 point
    Daqo New Energy, DQ Earning Path 2017e_EPS $ 8.5 2018e_EPS $ 7 - $ 9 2019e_EPS $ 7 - $ 10 2020e_EPS $ 7 - $ 14
  16. 1 point
    I feel he may come out with a recommendation.
  17. 1 point
    No problem Mark. Everyone is confused including CFO. G said he felt they are reluctant while trying to explain it. I feel that someone behind the curtain is doing swap accounting, and CFO is just a figure head. Frankly those are not done so it is hard to talk about them.
  18. 1 point
    Those who follow my trades. One needs to take a sober look at the poly situation. Canadian Solar will make the money we talk about, but it will be veiled in the soft performance of its manufacturing segment, at least until March. As we know life, this will become the front concern with the market. I see stock be soft especially when JASO and JKS confirm fear of poly pricing tomorrow for JASO. I intend to trade out and in my CSIQ position. Next report is in March, my goal is to rebuild position in CSIQ to again fully loaded but perhaps in a range of $15 to $16. I am hoping to do so with PEGI, and occasional trades outside of the spectrum. I want to be upfront. I have not lost my expectations, but I need to manage my resources to be stronger for the comeback. This is Solarpete's philo and mine, no more holding with dead cold hands. LOL. Keep this in mind.
  19. 1 point
    That is not the case as per the 20-F. Tax equity money is a liability as projects are still on the balance sheet. The cash has been received by the company but not recognized as a revenue. The whole selling of those projects with tax equity is going involve revenue recognition to offset financing liability to zero on a balance sheet. The asset itself, since it is deprived of the tax equity value, is priced lower and this is why I have assigned 10% GM, it may be less than that. It is happening for the CSIQ owned projects only and only in the US, of course. CSIQ got $57M from Southern for TE, which is placed under carrying value in the investment in affiliates' line, so this is likely a revenue recognized. Both Roth and Oppenheimer see Q4 as over a $1 event. If the layout of projects in the US is 4 and involves Falck, I cannot see $1.8B without this line getting involved. I guess we will see. I will be talking to Gordon tomorrow; He was interested in my October article and had questions on it. I wonder what feelings he has. I could not get more form the company either. However, I was told there could be updates, perhaps with details of sales. I can't comment on things in India. I expect some form of development which may involve Adani, manufacturing, etc. I also expect more projects in South America and SEA to pop. Those are new areas, where pricing is probably still on a higher note. CSIQ will benefit if Canada is excluded from tariffs. Letter to the president was sent today but will be a public matter on December 4th. CSIQ has projects in Alberta, and they are likely to be added in 2018 to development. After FSLR, CSIQ, if I am correct, will have the best financial profile. I look at poly choke point as temporary. They will sell more units in CSIF by June and drop more projects. There and likely sell projects to others. The company is worth $1B and will have half debt in 6 months and about $1.2B in cash. They are investing more in black silicon and PERC, to me, this is a testimony that combination works and transition to higher efficiency is ongoing. Again the numbers given are half glass full statements. I do recall when projects in Canada were called a legacy, now this name is passed to this set of projects. I just read the transcript from Pattern this morning. They talk about Japan like Canada 10 year ago. Big opportunities with FiT, that is what they got for their wind project there. CSIQ sold 300MW in Canada or so (not the supply deals with Samsung). They could have about 600MW in Japan and more. Brazil is still at the beginning. Chint is trying to build a 200MW factory by November 2018. There is too much going on to pass this. I see not much in another company unless it is a ride with FSLR, which is 6 times the price. Yeah, I guess my answer is I would invest in it.
  20. 1 point
    "For your potential estimates of 12 EPS by 2020, are you attributing the increase to the manufacturing capacity expansion?" Yes the Nameplate Capacity or Nominal Capacity is 18,000 tons, but the effective capacity was 20,000 tons and is now 21,000 tons https://solarindustrymag.com/daqo-new-energy-plans-ramp-polysilicon-production so 30,000 tons maybe are 33,000 tons in 2020 "Are you assuming Polysilicon prices will remain stable or are you foreseen increase in Poly prices also?" No IMHO the Polysilicon Price is no sustainable above 18 or below 12 > 18 the Module maker dont buy < 12 the Polysilicon maker dont sell the Polysilicon Price now is ... maybe ... $ 18 - $ 17.5 http://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-463.html (china polysilicion price - 1.5 ) 150 rmb / 6.6 (USD/CNY) / 1.17 tax [thanks Klotilde] = $ 19,4 - 1,5 = $ 18 http://pv.energytrend.com/pricequotes.html (pv energytrend - 0.5) 18.7 - 0.5 = $ 18.2 http://pvinsights.com/indexUS.php (pvinsights + 1 ) 16.6 + 1 = $ 17.6 if the Polysilicon Price go down to $ 14.5 in 2018 DQ EPS = $ 6 That is the interesting question from my point of view, and if the Polysicilon Price go down to $ 12.5 in 2020 DQ EPS = $ 7
  21. 1 point
    Hello Tupapa my thoughts: 2017e_EPS (20,000 tons): $ 7 2018e_EPS (21,000 tons): $ 6 - $ 8 2020e_EPS (33,000 tons): $ 6 - $ 12 DQ fair Value IMHO: $ 60 because $ 6 EPS is sustainable in the long run and is sustainable in the long run because OCI (Korean, 60,000 tons) and Wacker Chemie (Germany, 80,000 tons) and GCL (China) and ... and ... and ... look, page 15: http://hugin.info/136555/R/2101124/796563.PDF the rectangle at the left corner is Daqo
  22. 1 point
    Collin Rusch says CSIQ is worth 32 per share “CSIQ posted solid results with revenue ahead of Street estimates, driven by higher than expected module and project sales. The bottom line was modestly below expectations on headwinds from polysilicon prices due to import duties in China and forex hedge losses due to a weaker US dollar vs. RMB. CSIQ continues to execute well on its project business having listed its J-REIT successfully and nearing closure on numerous project sales. We continue to expect CSIQ to de-lever its balance sheet as project sales close. We remain bullish on CSIQ shares as we believe there is significant unrealized value in its Japanese and North America project portfolios as well as platform flexibility with an increased net cash position.” http://www.markets.co/oppenheimer-believes-canadian-solar-inc-nasdaq-csiq-still-has-room-to-grow/118581/
  23. 1 point
    I don't like it that he blamed poly for low margins. First this is something affecting all silicon players alike. Second, he talks like he is entitled to poly at 12USD and somehow the Dingo stole it. I think GCL produces poly at a cost close to 12 so he expects GCL to give it away at zero margin. Third, if poly were at 12 chances would be they would be forced to pass on most of the savings to customers in the form of lower prices. People are right when they said he dodged questions on project margins. Maybe the inconvenient truth is that apart from.JP it ain't that rosy?
  24. 1 point
    You got JKS up, they must be running on onion peels, not poly.
  25. 1 point
    $270M in revenue and $165M for the projects in debt you see as 7.5% GM. If you see that there is no hope for the rest. The margin is 21% because the share ownership in CSIF is an addition of cost. The manufacturing cost is up, and Indian project is probably also just a 12% gain as well as the 3 projects sold to Shenzhen. They will beat the margin of 12.5% in my opinion overall. They need to hire someone who can talk or get a VP in there to talk, one from Europe.
  26. 1 point
    I estimate non JREIT project margins in the 7.5% range based on Q4 guidance. This is on top of what looks to be high single digit module margins. The module margins in high single digits is driving $60M gross income at Q4 volume guidance. After Q1, they will need a bunch of other project revenues if the module margins do not rebound in order to offset the $120M quarterly costs. I am expecting 2018 Opex and interest at $500M. gross from 8.5GW modules at $300M gross from 110MW Japan $110M gross from 500MW US $56M Total Gross $466M They will need to pick up $34M other gross to break even for the year. If you want $1 in EPS in 2018 then they need to pick up $100M in gross. At Q4 estimated non JREIT gross, you would need project sales of $1.3B or roughly 900MW of other sales. I find it will be tough based on their current built and the late stage projects available to hit those numbers. From the numbers, it is very unlikely they push $2 a share in earnings which is needed to support $18 a share in profits.
  27. 1 point
    I seriously think that Shawn could use some speech lessons, it was not exactly a King's speech finale, but the 80 minutes of the same studdering. When Potter talked sales in 2013 and 2014, nobody had doubts what he was saying.
  28. 1 point
    The company will split on Dec 4 to trade 2 shares from one. Most businessesare are private and this is just one I consider actually cheap. They just bought some attractive additions to their business. This is not a startup, they have zero debt, and %700M in cash, 75% gm. They pay a small dividend but by own shares for cancellation. You got ABB with robotics and ROK, 57 and 24B, there is room to move here. Again folks, do you own DD. My view is this it will go to $140, will split and rest around $90 again. I think this one will be a hold though.
  29. 1 point
    They should build the whole fab into a shipping container so they can be quickly shifted around the world based on the latest tariff scenarios.
  30. 1 point
    Depends on where you look, I think you forgot to take intangible assets out for both. Yahoo sees 1.23 for FSLR perhaps after $93M of those are taken out. They see 1.17 for CSIQ in the same stat. I am glad you mentioned positive thing for CSIQ and its equity. Book for Canadian should grow by 34% in my estimates. If CSIQ gets this 1.23 ratio, that is $26 per share. To me, PE is what the company can do and PB is what it did. It is hard to take PB and assess the future. I also think PB does not reflect the real value of solar companies. In my view in connection with EPS, PB should be higher to at least 1.5. SPWR is at 1.68 of it so people do not mind paying, while in case of SPWR they will get burned.
  31. 1 point
    Let's be careful here. Yes, Klothilde definitely has a pro-FSLR viewpoint. But just because someone says something we don't want to hear, doesn't mean it isn't correct. It doesn't necessarily mean it is correct, either--it does mean we should pay attention and examine the argument, lest we get blinded by our own optimism. Look at her numbers, and decide for yourself if the argument is rational (based on logical conclusions from verified numbers) or not. Ask for help from others on this forum if you're not sure--that's why we're all here, and folks like Odyd and Explo are great at sharing calculations. As we all know by now, solars don't always go up in a straight line. In retrospect, I certainly wish I had listened to a few naysayers at certain times along the way. I may disagree with them, but ignoring them completely just because they say something I don't want to hear is a mistake I will not repeat again.
  32. 1 point
    Why is First on fire? It's getting too expensive for my taste.
  33. 1 point
    Well, I have my investment account, today I replaced 10% Scatec Solar with 10% CSIQ, I continue to hold SMA, Sedg and mostly DAQO for the long run. Then I have my trading account where I have a sizable CSIQ possition for trading purposes, if tomorrow I get an entry trigger, I will have my trading account allocated as follows; CSIQ 60% JKS 20% Sedg 15% GCl POLY 5%
  34. 1 point
    Price action in CSIQ is so far very promising. Upon my publishing my last post, there was a strong breakout of resistance on large volume. After the breakout, price retraced on diminishing volume, but look at the narrow bars, this shows lessening selling pressure but buyers still eager to take the shares on the market. The last hour there was an increase of volume, new buyers came in and price shot upwards in orther to find new sellers. This is classic retracement action and I will be entering my full possition tomorrow, if price moves above the most recent hourly bar. As for DAQO, yesterdays price action confirmed the retracement that I pointed out on Monday and price is now following a steeper angle of ascent.
  35. 1 point
    Beautiful! Experience the lesson in real time. Good pop on high volume.
  36. 1 point
    Unlike the prior times it ventured above 18, this time price is holding above 18 for a few hours now. I am long 1/2 of my total, will go long the ramining after a daily RET
  37. 1 point
    Two had issued a joint statement, including third, all three excluded Canada. They have condemned Mexico to tariffs with one commissioner having a window for 750MW in the first year, probably keeping in mind SunPower. Chairman Schmidtlein does not name Canada in exclusion. Hence it is assumed she included her. The majority rules, 3 to 1 so I do not expect Canada to be included. CSIQ wanted this outcome. November 13th will be the recommendation, and of course, rest is up to Trump. This is why CSIQ went up at the end and was resilient while FSLR was diving. https://www.usitc.gov/press_room/documents/solar201_remedy_commissionerstatements.pdf
  38. 1 point
    Details of borrowings, check the rates and the returns on the plants, a money maker basically. https://www.canadiansolarinfra.com/file/en-news-037a7c24fd43c9855b8548e5419e56ef15366a3e.pdf
  39. 1 point
    Details of the transaction, plants etc, acquisition is complete https://www.canadiansolarinfra.com/file/en-news-d2721e76dc03641e5695979ad95988db3f0b12b4.pdf
  40. 1 point
    I will not buy until it breaks 18$ because price could remain in the current range (15-18) for months. As Livermore would put it, "The point is not so much to buy as low as possible, but to buy at the right time. And the right time is right before the stock begins an uptrend, so even though I won´t get the lowest price, I don´t want to allocate funds to a stock until it starts to move higher. Regarding the holding above 18$ part, onced price breaksout, I look at a short time interval like the 30m or the Hourly charts. I want to see price holding above or around 18, and the bars narrowing down during the retracement, which would mean that buyers are still coming in and sellers are not strong enough to push price back into the range. Of course price could gap up and I could miss the entry, but the market generally presents one with more than one entry oppotunity, for instance with DAQO there are several Opps, one of them could be taking place right now. First there was the Breakout, (1) which is the most agressive and would require you to be watching the tape during the trading session, in order to see if buyers can keep price from falling back into the range. Then there was the test (2), which was arguably the best entry since the breakout had been confirmed and a narrow stop loss could be placed below 30. Finally there is the current retracement (3), which entails the highest risk but is still encouraging. Notice how the most recent daily bars are very narrow, and the volume is shrinking showing diminishing selling interest but ample buying interest (otherwise the down bars would be a lot wider). If the selling dryes up here and a fresh round of buying comes in (earnings, sector related or any other reason), prices will go up in order to find new sellers that are content with their proffits and happy to let go of their shares. I hope this helps
  41. 1 point
    Opening it in Google in Japanese version offers a lot more info.
  42. 1 point
    Yeah, I mean the numbers never seemed to move us as you'd expect anyway. Leaving us all rather frustrated many times over the years, I know. How many times I got a blowout Q and raised guidance from my beloved CN4 only to be totally trashed because of reason X or Y or Z. But if sentiment changes, and as Robert noted, its viewed more as a technology than a commodity, then it won't matter what the numbers are either to the same degree. Stay profitable, look like you know what you're doing and have a path forward and who cares about the PE or a missed quarter. There are important things these big players will be able to offer that smaller can't/won't. Latest technology, pricing power to accompany that and also the belief that this company will be around long enough to honor a 20-year power warranty --- those are the main things that come to mind that the market has been ignoring in my opinion. I'm not naive enough to think that the world has indeed woken up today, but I am smart enough to scale into CSIQ more next week and not have a lot of anxiety about it. ;)
  43. 1 point
    Finally our sector is getting noticed. All those tech companies with their 30 40 50 PEs. Those idiots analysts talking about solar as commodity. They ruined it. The tech is enormous and will get even more sophisticated. Technology and energy, and yet the most undervalued sector on a planet.
  44. 1 point
    Well, the others aren't up much, so you're not missing out on anything. I think you'll need to be patient until earnings. At that time, CSIQ should finally be able to hit the market over the head with the results of all this behind-the-scenes good news. Once the company can finally "show (investors) the money," they'll be hard to ignore. Of course, if earnings are still meager, that will be a huge problem. If all these developments aren't reaching the bottom line, that won't be a good sign. But I think that's unlikely. I still have positions from much higher prices, and I'm holding them fully expecting all these company maneuvers to eventually pay off. Just not today or tomorrow.
  45. 1 point
    I do not do options.
  46. 1 point
    That's what I've been telling myself for 5+ years now....
  47. 1 point
    Almost all worked out as expected. I forgot they will be owning shares. So Fund borrows $156M, gets $156M in equity sold, this looks like $312M. Not sure how the fees work again but at 15% (excl.oversubscribed option). After spending $270M on CSIQ, the fund would still have some $18 to $20M cash. Invested equity plus GM is 42%
  48. 1 point
    I agree with your view and I´ve got my money where my mouth is, on the one hand with and investment account and also with a trading account, looking only for bullish opportunities. I think the market is severely underallocating capital to solar for several reasons; - The Feed in Tariff interfered with the market mechanism leading to a short lived artificial boom period; gross missallocations and overvalued companies. The following bust was painful and investors are very skeptical and fearful of the sector. -Trump´s stance on climate change has contributed to the feeling of apprehension towards the sector. - The bankrupcy cycle has left few players in the market, and with growing demand for solar (as already seen in 2017), prices and margins will improve dramatically with demand. PE ratios seem ridicolously low, I mean in some cases the single digits, for a sector that is projected to grow hugely in the near future. I have the conviction that these are the early days of the bull market, there is still a lot of fear and reluctance from amateur investors, which is good. There will be corrections along the way, but the trend is upwards and there is still a long way to go until the final phase of euphoria is reached. As Livermore put it "Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon". If one is long, I think for the foreseeable future its a case of being one of those men.
  49. 1 point
    I have no place to discuss this topic so that this thread will do. My first article on SA got published in 2012. I wrote at the time ASP was at $1.34, and the cost was $0.94 per watt. TSL sold 1.5GW for the entire year. In 5 years companies sell four times this, but their margins are 30% to 44% of what is used to be. CSIQ was at about $2.56 per share. The tech was weak then. I have this feeling that technology is going to push solar in the next five years to unknown to us levels. Perhaps twice further at least as last five years were. I am looking to other technologies. Every time I do I come back to the conclusion, that solar industry is deeply undervalued and certainly manipulated for years when it comes to the markets. Those improvements mentioned earlier are phenomenal. Yieldcos got built on it, and they are more valued than projects builders and equipment makers who build projects. Electric cars are coming, and solar is such obvious choice for electricity. Let’s hold on for the next five years and see what happens. I think we will see another two major companies go through reorganization. SunPower comes to mind. I think we will see JA Solar come off the market sold. Yingli seems like it is holding for too long. I think with JA and SPWR gone from the market the value of others will go up. I think this somewhat happened after TSL left the scene. I am curious about the ideas on above
  50. 1 point
    I managed to find a confirmation that Sempra actually paid $124M in cash for Tranquility 8's equity, the 200MW ac project in July. So very likely that $825M and margin over 17% will be seen. I looked at the famous article on SA again and indeed the number was a match. I found interesting that in one statement author wrote this sale had 40% gross margin. I read this article before but went assuming 40%, or perhaps was influenced by it. Going to Q2, CSIQ had 15.9% operating margin, including 29MW of a total solution sale. Assuming the same and adding Sempra sale the margin would climb over 19%, so I expect that ops are still running at 13% bringing the thing to about 17% plus. Should look like 0.30 per share.
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