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  1. 2 points
    I've never bought a solar that did not offer multiple additional opportunities to buy more at a lower price in the future...
  2. 1 point
    My expectations for Q2 for Jinko is 12.6% GM and about 13.35% GM for H2. The overall ends up being 12.6% and about $71M in net income of $2.29 per share.
  3. 1 point
    80% fully invested in CSIQ 12.61 average Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  4. 1 point
    The part which I struggle is the interpretation which is built on a lack of accounting acumen speculating baseless character slender. To me, an idea of recording the project was all about meeting criteria for it. The company has 30-day span or less to report the material event. To me, the explanation is that criteria would take accounting process which is beyond timeline to report. My comments were different, implying they better report it or they will not have meet revenue. Of course, I was counting original volume guidance of modules sold. It seems shortsighted to me prop one-quarter versus the other. Inexperience comments fueled by bias is nothing new. The author of this article had a lengthy dispute on his view of SunEdison's accounting. An argument he lost to the power of bankruptcy. One would probably be better off to speculate future than the past against the facts. What I have found, the company has become tight-lipped, almost hostile, about any project transactions. I would not be surprised that those sales come in in waves, with fewer details and perhaps unguided in a particular way. If someone learned something was that doing so CSIQ did better in Q1. JKS OEM its volume and dropped GM, it paid the price of meeting the expectation. Nobody here said they would OEM 25% of its sales and 5% of it all is PERC. The company did not say it when they made guidance. It is hard to miss selling 25% by buying modules from others at zero margins. The innovative technology giant has $200M in cash and 4 times receivables. They have negative cash flow. Sometimes it is better to lose with entity than making money with another in view of the future. The story of FSLR seems to illustrate this very well and I find Jinko now becoming an illustration of the other end of this observation. Hopefully, they have enough controls to stop being Yingli and Suntech in time. I disagree with the author. He clearly put his agenda in front of his writing. Someone who gets paid to describe industry should free himself from bias especially from loud unfounded speculation to fill gaps in technical, accounting knowledge. However, for anyone, what they walk with after reading it it is their own to think Cheers.
  5. 1 point
    After reading more info, I think CSIQ black silicon modules do not use PERC. PERC has actually negative defect on poly which causes greater LID. the issue is resolved or solution is done for mono, but not commercially available for poly. If CSIQ could find a solution or buy it, their black silicon modules could get more efficiency.
  6. 1 point
    I see no impact from PA. PA is a government’s commitment to reduce emissions. Yieldcos buy renewable energy plants built outside of government realm or influence. The petition is different, but I see nothing concerning for yieldcos. There are many solar plants out there in the hands of third parties (CSIQ example). There are projects built by sponsors, and the wind and natural gas for NEP and NYLD could take the front seat. Things will carry on as usual. One element for PEGI is to able build cheap and get PPA and still make money. However, they are limited with the resources in my opinion at this point. For a buyer on the market, NYLD could be a good package to have, hence the buyout hopes could be adding value. For the same reason, CAFD is gaining in my view. Petition games are about solar. I think FSLR will have success in the US, when and only their capacity is available. However, the project needs and this is the matter which yieldcos have a role to play, creates a module mfg/ seller market; I think Canadian could be more than any other company interested to be in the US. They are developing there themselves, and they have huge opportunity to offset FSLR if they can sign up projects. If NAFTA stands, CSIQ has it made cheaper than moving to the US, but I would not be surprised they would spend to move to the US as long as Recurrent starts playing a bigger role. I think Explo mentioned a scenario that most developers would be unemployed without panels as costs will exceed returns. Developer having access to panels could have the best chance to get things done and ability to build and sell projects. Canadian seems as a natural candidate for that.
  7. 1 point
    360w for multi is great. I hope JKS and JA gets into the half-cut cell tech too. REC obviously doesn't have exclusivity.
  8. 1 point
    Maybe a transcription error. This is what the PR said: The transaction was closed on February 1, 2017 and the Company expects to recognize the difference between the sales proceeds and the book value of the projects under 'Other income (expenses)' in the income statement for the first quarter of 2017. http://investors.canadiansolar.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=196781&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2243208
  9. 1 point
    Thanks SCSolar--I was thinking I musta missed something big :D On the Abu Dhabi thing I saw ~$870M loan + ~$200M equity for $1,070M total investment. That puts project over $0.90/watt which seems like not so dire margins.
  10. 1 point
    JKS is my only solar postion. I am sitting on a around half of the open interest of the Jan. 19'18 $18 call positons (400 contracts). How do you trade a solar stock or option when it heats up? Where do you get off the bus? I sold some at $5 today (10% of holdings) which was a 200% gain. The crazy thing is $10 is certainly in the realm of possibility if the stock goes to $26. The fundamentals support much higher prices than that. What we all love about these stocks are the times when they get really hot. Only one constant in my book for judging the power of potential moves up. Follow the volume. If volume increases over the average in a meaningful way, which it has now for JKS going on 4 days, then you have a horse in the race that could make you some serious gains. I ride out the violitiliy. Can't play daily/weekly moves. Pick your price target and hold on... GLTA
  11. 1 point
    I do not know about it. I bought FSLR as I believe petition makes them the winner. SW joining in represents pretty much all US manufacturing there will be tariffs. Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  12. 1 point
    I opened small position in CSIQ if anything to bring the price down. Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk
  13. 1 point
    Let’s put things in perspective. Three times now, petitions have been filed with ITC, and two of them resulted with tariffs. Just last year, Canadian paid $144M in tariffs to the US. The solution here was to built SEA capacity, probably for the same amount, to avoid it. Guess what; the third time will not be different. Trump, renewables, imports, what is the combination here which improves odds against decisions made by moderate Obama administration? I looked at the results of JASO; we are talking about ASP below 30 cents in Q4 and Q1 in some areas. The high 20s is the cost, not a good correlation. I am not going to enter FSLR, being stubborn is my loss. I knew, in my gut, ITC will start investigating and should have been buying it. The day they filed the petition FSLR closed at 28.99. The stock will be doing very well, and tariffs will improve its business. I am not sure if outside the US company will find work.Based on ASP numbers FSLR competitiveness is already at the question. So save by the petition is the situation of this company. They will need to expand fast as it will be hard for them to cash in without capacity. We will also see a mass produced Chinese thin-film modules come in. Interestingly, a lot of Chinese unknowns started buying thin-film equipment in last year. They will take the chance, who knows, we may even see T1s outsource to some of those. Contrary to my colleague, explo, CSIQ is the only valid alternative for me. JKS will have a harder time to delivering its EPS. Its EPS is factored on the strong gross margin and margins will be tough. Abu Dhabi business, well it is a joint venture, and I do not know how Jinko gets paid at the end. On the other hand, Canadian is still able to do margins from plants, and opportunely its plant business in the US is now again a benefit and not being a burden. They have business elsewhere, yes the plants. Credulous Travis sees this as a problem. They have 1GW of signed PPA, and when module prices dropped by about 50%, this is a cost-benefit against fixed PPA numbers. They have Japan which will be incredibly profitable. Finally, I think they are most likely to enter the US market with production. They own American developer. If tariffs are in, who will compete with FSLR for the business which will not have more than 2GW of S6 only by the end of 2018? They can get their modules for their own business, that is all that they need to do to become superior, exception FSLR, getting the gift. Between now and June 6th, I hope there is an opportunity to buy. Today, was a 6% day for FSLR and CSIQ the best of 3, did 0.3%, so I think the pressure is starting and as opinions set in, selling will be more of the view to save the recent highs. What to expect for the next two results? JASO’s ASP was only 1 cent lower than Q4. The cost internally dropped by 1 cent, but the blend stuck. So the ASP of $0.40 for JKS should do well for them, but they probably go to $0.39 as most of their sales would be China. I think CSIQ will not do as bad if the do $0.41. Their margin can be supported closer to 15%, as they may have bet story of cost reduction, so I hope so by half of my desired holding before cc could be in the books.
  14. 1 point
    1. Per JASO, music is not stopping but will slow down in H2. 2. They refused (when asked) to provide GMs for China and India, but stated that China's current GMs are much higher. 3. ASPs late Q4 and early Q1 next year are high .20s(!!!) in India and (some countries of) South America. With internal costs of maybe high .20s by year end, if they ship anything to those regions - all will be for losses. 4. Q2 will be good (for all I assume) mostly due to China, after which time China will drop. 5. Kept full year guidance. 6. No stock buybacks. No capital market raises. Nothing new on privatization. In short, a typical JA report.
  15. 1 point
    I do not think JASO would be the one. They would also need wafer factory and that is the most expensive thing to set up, so Hemlock option needs logistics. I think SolarWorld's plant could be bought at discount and it is a lot better business than Suniva. Suniva operated mostly as a front importing most of its products. I doubt anyone would buy that place. I understand that a lot of product would be shipped to the US, but I do not expect those to bring revenues in Q2 (too late) perhaps in Q3. I imagine they would be warehoused rather than contracted. Most of the projects buy modules upon the decision to build. I am not seeing a lot of activity and companies like NRG and NEE have bought 1GW of modules each mostly from Hanwha and SunPower early this year. There could be an increase, but such increase is limited to capacity and they sell capacity quarter ahead. which means orders would be flying now (public announcements) for Q3. I see Chinese-made modules to be moved to the US again, as they may offer still premium beyond October. I think companies may hold back until the end of the year to sell modules stored in the US with higher prices, perhaps curtailing selling now. It is risky but you got either normal flow or 20% price gained what would be sold under normal conditions.
  16. 1 point
    This MOU showed up for CSIQ, the company would not make an announcement on MOUs for some time. Qu is planning strategy for the plant in case the US will not be accessible? Most likely http://www.thailand4.com/.nrg/2017-05-18/89867e731f4bbde861c4f37beac4a6c3/