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  1. 2 points
    Greetings, I have some experience in technical analysis that I will be happy to share on this thread and hopefully it will be useful for members as well as for my own trading. In 1931, Richard Wyckoff published his seminal work on stock trading and investing The Richard D Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique. In it ,he describes a system of analysis based on the interpretation of Price and Volume, that enables a trader or investor to make accurate and consistent forecasts about the most probable action of any particular asset. I open this thread in order to share my analysis of the solar sector, based on the aforementioned method, as well as of particular stocks that I deem suitable for investing or trading. I have been following the sector for a couple of years, since I am firm believer that climate change is the biggest challenge facing our species. In this respect, solar will be an integral part of the solution and I see it as an industry that will grow enormously for decades. From a technical perspective, I see the sector as having completed a bottom in June 2016 and I believe we are witnessing the initial stages of the bull market. In the following charts I will be sharing my reasons for holdings this view. On the longer term monthly chart, I see two significant developments. Firstly, buyers came in to support price above the 2011 lows (1-blue line); Following Trump's election a final round of selling ensued, most probably elicited by the administration's anti renewable energy stance. However, scarcely a month later, around mid December, buyers stepped in and begun accumulating these stocks. This brings us to the second relevant development (point 2); Buyers kept bidding up prices with enough conviction to break the downtrend that had been in place since the market peaked at around 50. This was the first sign of selling exhaustion and a sign that a potential bottom could be in place. The weekly chart shows a more detailed picture of the most recent action. In it I have noted point “A”, which shows how after the abovementioned downtrend break, there was another wave of selling that was met by further buying, supporting price above the December lows and resulting in a successful test (A). From here onwards, price has made a series of Higher Lows, and we now have an uptrend that remains intact. The most recent developments show buyers stepping in at the black horizontal support line at “C”, and eagerly attempting to accelerate the pace of the advance, as shown by the steeper angle of line “D”. In order for this new trendline to be confirmed, buyers must be willing to raise the bid above the most recent highs. It is worth noting how even with the constant flow of bad news coming from the White House (Pulling out of the Paris Agreement, the removal of tax credits, the potential for import tariffs) price is continuing its merry way northward. That is to say, “someone” or some group of people are making use of the bad news to load up on the sector. We could debate and hypothesise over who is buying up and why, what kind of privileged information they might have; maybe they know that this tariff talk and Paris Agreement withdrawal is nothing more than a negotiation tactic, they could be certain that the clown will be impeached, or perhaps there is a growing realization that solar will play a pivotal role in providing energy for the world, regardless of what the USs position might be. Fortunately for the price action reader, one needn't waste much time conjecturing, since the aggregate action and beliefs of all players are shown on the charts. For now, and unless price breaks the current stride; the charts show a buoyant market, with few sellers and eager buyers that are happy to keep bidding up prices.
  2. 2 points
    SunPower going after First Solar. https://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/sunpower-running-scared-of-first-solar
  3. 2 points
    This is getting a bit more exciting, I found this piece on it. Apparently, the acquisition is $800M, which would translate to $2.03 per watt dc and $2.64/watt ac. If the number was accurate, the GM and equity look like 29% or 232/800. This would support the version of 20% project equity and 9% GM. If Koreans are paying the same for residual 309MW/1.3=237.7MW ac that is an additional $628M. In total selling that 707MW would bring $1.430B revenue, a cash increase of $414M, and GM of $128M. That alone is a $1 per share at 50% net margin. I would say that net margin is probably likely 80%, so by the looks of it, CSIQ will earn $100M and $1.65 per share. Not bad when considering that IP is coming in and 25% GM could bring $65M and net income this for $52M, that is about the $0.85. We still have 150MW in UK, and collection of all other sales, If this is coming Q4, the revenue could hit $2B. http://westdollar.com/sbdm/finance/news/1354,20171013784710780.html
  4. 1 point
    Klothilde there is a difference in a cost in transport, and yes it is significant. You cannot quote the container cost traveling on the water or port to port without adding a land move as well. Moving it from Guelph is just the land move. The price from Malaysia is double for running a smaller unit (40) versus larger unit (53) in the continental the US when all costs are calculated. The rates are based on length of the trip, time at sea, as well, and they would vary. The time spent on the water is significant. Two weeks in best or a lot more, those two weeks can be used to install. It would take tandem driver set deliver anywhere within two days in the US. This is before freight gets loaded on a ship or gets unloaded, which could take a month if you hitting busy time, especially in Asia. The metric about S4 is not interpretation, the amount write-offs taken by the company for this particular product, made it positive gross margin. My calculation made S4 be in the level of Chinese cost from Q1. The cost is going up as they use it less, but the ASP has helped them. They were selling this module 9 to 10 cents above Chinese ASP due to Suniva by Q2 and actually cost going a bit higher from what they had in Q1. Yes, the product is inferior, has plenty of costs, reverse to S6 is true, and as S6 is a custom-made form factor. S6 comparisons are an improvement to S4, but I frankly yawn about how fast someone installs it to make a difference (agility) versus the fix quality of how less to connect it is etc. Let's see the real 100MW installation in S6 and we can discuss the cost dynamic.
  5. 1 point
    Klothilde that is an impressive figure, but FLSR provides two figures, one is 24%. Considering that modules rating is 430W and 340W, the capacity of installing one to one is a gain of 21%. It appears to me that in the hands of the two companies test varied as far as 62% by such a variable you cannot assume any accuracy. Either it is not sustainable, or sample is not big enough to represent a statistical constant. S6 is a prototype, which weighs about 54% more than CSIQ module. Engineered studies will tell you that weight factor reduces productivity. Meaning by the time 4 hours hits, people who lift heavier slowdown by 50%, and by a certain measure, they also stop for twice longer to recuperate. Handling material of this size is also slower, just put a product on a forklift and try to put it away or bring it down. Now the more likely potential for CSIQ, when a 370W module from CSIQ is used, the gains are 14% for S6, and as I said before, 7% more land coverage is needed for S6 module. At 33% more weight for S6, is tracking system suitable to handle all this weight? I note that tracking material is not included, and more of it is needed if the scale goes up. It is a custom-made tracking. The cost is variable also by the level of compensation. The example is $60. What if two people are paid total of $30 working for CSIQ? Is this a competitive edge standard versus custom install to make this more competitive with FSLR? At 395W module, which is 2019 potential, the module variance is 8% for S6 and coverage requires 14% more of the coverage or land. So this is happening when 2019 does not even point of total capacity for FSLR. Lastly, the big difference, a 40-foot container ships 468 of S6 and same ships 660 of 370Ws, or 41% more module per container. For a 100MW install that is 497 containers, versus 410. Say you ship from Canada to the US location. That is about $3K US per load or $1.2M in price. To ship FSLR from Malaysia or Vietnam, it is about $7K or $3.4M. More than a double in price. I wonder what FSLR should say about this? If they would ship from the US that is about $261K more for S6, substantial. Final thought, the advantage of S5 was going to blow Chinese out of the water. All it did was to blow $800M in a write-off and kept inferior S4 with a positive margin. I hope that FSLR does not build its success by the expediency of some overweight guys installing modules, but a real value like wiring costs per module. Those are effective now, but as efficiency for a silicon module rises, to said 395W, are easily neutralized and including other factors beatable. As usual, time will tell. Side-note, perhaps using CSIQ as an example, solidifies CSIQ as the only competition capable of launching meaningful offset to FSLR post-Suniva. I would like to thinks so.
  6. 1 point
    I have looked again at the Japanese IPO; the actual price purchase is $272M or 30.433B yen this means the price per watt is about $3.74/watt. On the IPO it shows that amount of the infrastructure assets as over 31B yen. The IRR of the plants is 6% not sure after debt service and O&M but I assume it is. October 20 is the IPO price determination. They are trying to sell 186,690 units average price is about $894 per unit, that will bring $167M. The issuable units are 10M, so there is plenty room for future issuance if possible. Domestically they plan to sell 129K units and additional 48K are to be sold overseas. 8K is oversubscribed units. The value is based on existing capital of 150M yen and 1500 units issued prior to IPO. The $167M may not be fully paid to CSIQ. There are fees and perhaps need for the capital for CSIF. I think Qu said it was 15% in fees. The price for sold units on the market may be higher and the gains will be collected from the public buy over IPO or not. CSIQ may still collect $167M as a result but the number could be $142M. $142M is still a massive amount of equity versus the price of $272M. some 52%. The debt would be assumed for the balance, but what that balance is I am not sure. I doubt CSIQ would take 30% GM but they may if 20% is the invested equity. Yieldcos would usually use the entire proceeding to get the asset and leave small fraction to operate and to make interest payments. The beauty here is that debt is probably below 1% IR or flat. Looking forward to this first transaction. 6% return in the zero return environment seems attractive to get busy, but who knows.
  7. 1 point
    Tupapa, thank you for the contribution. Most of us trade on the US exchanges, so a review of companies of this area, like SEDG is something I personally like to read. thanks
  8. 1 point
    I see the equity value for plants, and it is not 900MW but 569MW direct ownership and they continue to confuse with an interest in statements. Yes, I am pretty convinced there is no more than $10 per share here and I would say less. One needs to know that debt must be acquired as well, that is additional $700M plus for the buyer. I am posting a table to show what I see for CSIQ transactions, it is easy to take the price per watt and compare. CAFD is worth $1.24B that is $2.17 per watt without debt. The price per watt for CSIQ projects is $2.04 AC (569MW is AC) including debt. No interest is paid on current credit, just principal. Think this way, $110M of CAFD for 14 years, no interest is paid. That is $1.54B in return, right? You pay $1.2B for equity and $700M for debt, debt which is going to cost 3 to 5% in interest per every year but let's take this out for now. So you bought a shell which makes no cash for $1.9B to get $1.4B return, $500M in a hole, as we sit here, still no interest. That $500M is over $6 per share. We are at $9 per share transaction to stay flat. That is my point here. Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) bought 80% interest in 1.7GW Mexican projects. It is a mix of solar and wind, the price paid $1.3B or so about under a dollar. A lot of equity needs to go in yet, as the projects are not complete for a large part of it and further contribution. is required, but certainly, nobody will pay $3.33 per watt for $2.70 dividend in case of CAFD. My two cents. I do not recommend to short or play with this. I think it is a trap to have it and I would ask owners of the stock reflect financially why they own the stock at this price.
  9. 1 point
    Once the technical position of the sector has been established, and in this case it is a very favourable one for the bull-side, Wyckoff asks us to focus on the strongest stocks in the sector. This makes sense, since the strongest stocks are simply those in which buyers are forced to bid up prices because sellers are unwilling to unload what they perceive to be valuable. With this in mind, I would like to begin the individual stock analysis with SolarEdge, which has almost tripled in value since Trump's election. On the monthly chart, the explosive buying power is apparent, especially when compared with the previously discussed solar sector. I have annotated a red line showing previous resistance which buyers are hurdling with at the momento. On the daily chart, the most recent action shows a meaningful dynamic. Point A shows a big volume spike, that was the result of sellers panicking after the import tariff decision, but notice how price quickly rebounded showing buyers saw this as an opportunity to load up on all the fearful supply. The lessening of supply is confirmed at point B, when the next round of selling is a lot smaller and is once again met with buying. The complete dry up is confirmed at point C, when buyers are forced to bid up prices fairly dramatically because sellers are nowhere to be seen. Currently, the diminishing volume shows less participants are willing to trade at current prices. Eventually, fresh buying or selling will come into the market, forcing prices up or down in order to find trades. The upwards sloping “wedge”, the strength of the sector and the strength of the stock relative of the sector suggests a higher probability of this taking place to the upside. A long stop entry order can be place above the current resistance level around 30.
  10. 1 point
    I think for the Korean buying 309MW plus MW, the price should be close to those averages, but chances are the tax equity may have a greater impact. It would be nice to hit one of those in Q4 and one in Q1. Q4 should have 92MW project sale, IPO sale and hopefully 150MW in UK. I also hope for selling the big project in Japan which can give another $100M in revenue. In addition to $600M plus in module sales, we could be looking at $1.2 to $1.5B quarters for Q4 and Q1 and more. Those should add nice numbers to net income, equity, cash etc. I think that Chinese actually pay more, not less, Koreans could pay less,
  11. 1 point
    The transaction needs to be approved. Shenzhen has announced it, as they are also going with an approval of their own. Canadian will not announce it until the transaction has the projected cash transfer timeline. The Q1 2018 is the end of the proposal. It should be a formality but we have a responsible party in CSIQ. I think they will do a prelim, as soon as Shenzhen approves it.
  12. 1 point
    My final thoughts about this transaction are summarized in the table below. I can’t guarantee this is the exact outcome but I would say it could be close. This is for 393MW out of 707MW expected to sell. The DC watt is more so $1.57 and AC is $2.04. That is about 3 cents more than Switch Stations sold for, very relative to the market out there.
  13. 1 point
    From the asset valuations and net equity and Capacity I get the following Mustang Asset Value per W = $2.31 or what they claimed sales values would initially be year ago Tranquility Asset Value per W = $1.26 Garland Asset Value per W = $1.21 Total Asset Value $631M Net equity $245M equity to asset value is 38.8% The question is what % of equity did they invest? This will skew the results significantly. If they invested 20%, of the project cost then their equity investment is in the range of $150M. CSIQ is making a very nice return of $82M or a return of >50% on equity invested. If they invested 30%, then the net gains are basically zero as they would have put in equity of $231M.
  14. 1 point
    They are holding companies set up by Recurrent for the projects developed under garland and tranquility. https://www.bizapedia.com/ca/re-mojave-holdings-llc.html https://www.bizapedia.com/ca/re-cantua-holdings-llc.html Cantua is in Fresno County and is 11 miles from the city of Tranquility. This would be the Tranquility project.. The town of Mojave is in Kern County and would be the Garland project. http://recurrentenergy.com/portfolio/
  15. 1 point
    I would not presume they are at a loss. It all depends on what their cost basis is for the projects since they had sold the Tax equity portions. I might speculate their costs are in the range of $1.30-$1.40/W D.C. after subtracting out the Tax equity that was sold of or acquired. This suggests a mid teens margins on total project sale. The average sale price is $1.60/watt D.C. based on total Assets of $633.4 and MW of 393.7.
  16. 1 point
    The Net equity for the 3 projects is listed and comes to $240M. The paper indicated they are selling the net equity portion for $232M. Shenzen would then own the company and the debts associated with the ownership portions. The projects are DC rated.You can find the details of the projects at the Recurrent Website. They give both AC and DC ratings http://recurrentenergy.com/portfolio/ The link from Klothilde gives first years hours of sunlight for the projects. as well as The Mustang Ranch revenue. You can approximate the PPA from these numbers which suggest a $0.05 PPA.
  17. 1 point
    Running scared is the dumbest description one could make of it. FSLR has been given monopoly and American company is saying it is not right. The only difference between logistics and organization of two is material. I hope that Trump will tariff all imports including cadmium. Now the game is fair.
  18. 1 point
    This is an equity sale, plants carry debt.
  19. 1 point
    This gets to the heart of it. To me, someone who really doesn't like FSLR and never has, they were gaining some respect in my mind by staying out of this entirely. It was their best course of action to stay quiet and say nothing. They come up smelling like roses in that case. They don't need to be involved to be opportunistic. These other lousy companies (SW/Suniva) were doing the dirty work for them, without the bad brand association. Now? Solar World, Suniva and First Solar. 3 peas in a pod.
  20. 1 point
    The point was they did not have to do it Klothilde. You posted an article from Travis, pointing that they need to do nothing. Sending a letter is like they worry it may not happen. Yes, this is business and nobody is going to walk following honor, but to side with SolarWorld and Suniva? I thought we had a different class of organization in FSLR, which unlike Yingli, makes without any support. Reality will hit like the brick house the best model is also shaking in a corner and will do anything to inch ahead or perhaps the model is not the best and losing ground as a lot of people already assumed. At this stage, I would not be surprised if any other country's developers made an effort to ban FSLR from their developments. Boycotting the only product the only one company makes is rather an easy task. I would not be surprised that Dukes, NRGs and NEEs will go out of their way not to buy FSLR if they find a way. I think this is worse move FSLR could make in their strategy. They could simply sit this one out as they were, playing neutral, and anyone would be fine with it. Something made them blink and they sided with the devil.
  21. 1 point
    here it is, enjoy: https://s3.amazonaws.com/dive_static/paychek/Statement_on_Remedy_Issues_165188341_1.pdf
  22. 1 point
    I guess First Solar did not get enough money, a loser move with a letter of tariff support. Maybe the S6 is just simply another module after all. A lot of smoke and mirrors here, dissapointed. https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/first-solar-section-201-trade-case-remedy
  23. 1 point
    I think that CSIQ is building a capacity in the US, using rules of origin to put modules with Asian cells. We will find out soon, but I think this is clear.
  24. 1 point
    Interesting summary of solutions to remedy the injury in the Suniva case. Note CSIQ and Canada government's https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=0e8587c2-de4b-4e01-861e-d89d92b55bf9
  25. 1 point
    It is a bias view that stock is worth $40 or $35. I did not like how sales of plants were calculated. Value for Japan sale was way beyond optimistic, no debt? how. I like what I did in my table. Solar investing is about not losing money first, second how long the company can go on third, can they make a profit, and can they improve in time. My table is a fact, the article is an interpretation of one.
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