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Showing content with the highest reputation since 12/06/2019 in all areas

  1. 2 points
  2. 1 point
    Nobody interested in S6 anymore. Bifacial is a king! Lightsource BP is expecting to deploy gigawatts of bifacial solar capacity in the coming years, declaring that most – if not all – of its 12GW+ pipeline will come forward using the technology. "In late October, Lightsource BP closed financing arrangements for a 200MWp project in Australia which will use Canadian Solar-manufactured bifacial panels." https://www.pv-tech.org/news/lightsource-bp-to-deploy-gigawatts-of-bifacial-panels-in-cross-continent-pi
  3. 1 point
    Who am I to correct you? I can only point out where I agree with you and where I don't and the reasons for it. Where did you get the idea that the Chinese project assets are classified as non-current? Based on their 20-F at the end of 2018 they had non-current project assets of $352M and solar power systems of $55M, i.e. a total non-current of $407M. On page F-71 of the 20-F they show the split of long-lived assets by country (including PP&E, solar power systems, non-current project assets, prepaid land use rights, and intangibles). The table shows that in Japan, Australia, and the U.S. they had a total of $345M in long-lived assets. Since PP&E in those countries is close to 0 that sum has to be mostly project related (aka project rights purchased and own development cost). And given that it is only $60M shy of the total non current project assets of $407M on the balance sheet that leaves little room for non-current project assets in China. I further disagree with your assumption that their stated resale-value is at a discount to the realizable resale value. Also your suggestion of $2 ASPs for non-Japan projects seems anachronistic. If I plug in some price data points for the projects I get a fairly consistent picture imo: U.S. NC McBride project - 102MW*$1.27/W=$130M ($130M indicated on con call) U.S. Roserock - 104MW*$0.61/W=$63M (p.F-40 on 20-F and p.F-41 where they say they wrote-down carrying value to estimated resell) Japan - 90MW*$3.5/W=$315M (weighted average of Yamaguchi and Izushi) Argentina - 100MW*$1.5/W=$150M (p.17) India - 35MW*$0.87/W=$30M https://www.investsize.com/en/australia’s-macquarie-to-buy-canadian-solar’s-indian-solar-assets-for-$1387-mln Others - 15MW*$1.5/W=$22.5M (assume typical U.K. pricing) China - $900M-$130M-$63M-$315M-$150M-$30M-$22.5M = $189.5M $189.5M/350MW = $0.54/W
  4. 1 point
    Declaring a full buyout at this price level would be in conflict with Board of directors' fiduciary duty. But with shares repurchase program, they can buy certain amount of shares at ridiculously low price without any conflict. Thus minimizing future expenses for 100% buyout, which, I believe, happens anyway sometime in 2020-2021...
  5. 1 point
    I believe eventual goal is full buyout. At least we know there won't be one until June 8/2020...
  6. 1 point
    Latest company presentation out you guys, with plenty more information than the previous versions. http://investors.canadiansolar.com/static-files/41b18453-ca99-4ade-b95a-979ea4ad2bbf I bet Hobo will like this one: "Highest module ASP among all China based manufacturers in 2019 YTD"
  7. 1 point
    Turned in my Jifan Gao fan club card and the polo shirt they sent me (no lie) long ago, so I’m with Klothilde here. I hope he’s right but don’t trust him much.
  8. 1 point
    We have to be careful not to overestimate China again in 2020 by listening to stakeholders who are just interested in pushing hype. Let's rather listen to what people have to say when they're allowed to speak their honest mind. "...The new system has been one of the major factors dampening new installations, said an analyst at a major Western research house, speaking on condition his name not be used due to company policy. He also blamed the slowdown on the winding down of a government program designed to bring solar power to China’s poorer regions, which had been contributing about one-quarter of new installations over the last few years. He said that like the Photovoltaic Industry Association, his organization was also forecasting total installations would reach about 30 GW this year, down by about one-third from 2018. But he predicted the figure would be similar in 2020, between 28 GW and 32 GW, as the situation stabilizes..." https://www.caixinglobal.com/2019-12-06/solar-power-fades-with-end-of-state-support-but-seen-stabilizing-in-2020-101491533.html
  9. 1 point
    China’s Worst Solar Days Seen Over as Capacity Is Set to Soar https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-05/china-s-worst-solar-days-seen-over-as-capacity-is-set-to-soar
  10. 1 point
    2012/24 tariffs is Chinese made products - Lots of capacity was setup to skirt these tariffs. Chinese 25% tariffs are only Chinese modules. 201 is global solar modules except bifacial Section 201 is 25% for the next month then falls to 20%. Poly Perc Cells can be bought for $0.095. Add another $0.08 in module cost and you have a $0.175 cost. A $0.22 ASP with a 25% tariff is $0.275 with a $0.045 profit. Add a penny if you want to the costs and you still have $0.035 which is more than enough to pay for shipping and insurance. A $0.23 ASP with a 20% tariff is $0.276. That is a $0.055 profit. Mono Perc cells are $0.02-$0.025 more. Mono Perc Cells are $0.115-$0.123 Costs for mono wafers is around $0.065 Cell processing is around $0.04 potentially less The cost for the added bifacial processing is a couple pennies more With Gobal demand headed towards Bifacial it makes sense to modify capacity added to avoid the 2012/14 trariffs. By the way Nrel suggested a 3 cent added cost for Bifacial modules back in 2018. http://bifipv-workshop.com/fileadmin/images/bifi/denver/presentations/5__Woodhouse-_module_pricing_and_energy_yield_bifiPV2018.pdf That was when they were suggesting costs to manufacture less Rnd and Opex was in the $0.34 vs $0.37 range. Reality check is cost are now 30% lower so that $0.03 is likely closer to $0.02.
  11. 1 point
    I don't care about FSLR... But if you do, read this: "First Solar, the letter said, had “ongoing customer negotiations immediately disrupted” at the time the exclusion was originally requested." https://morningconsult.com/2019/11/06/solar-firms-sought-senate-help-on-end-of-bifacial-panel-tariff-exclusion/ I, personally, never going to touch FSLR...

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