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Showing content with the highest reputation since 01/11/2020 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    The "rising tide lifting all boats" generally applies to all long biased strategies. What I have found important is to separate beta and alpha when analysing the return in order to see if the alpha is healthy. Your approach can certainly generate good alpha too. I would say that it requires more ongoing effort and is more difficult to keep long-term consistent than my approach as your alpha is generated from picking both asset and time and, I guess, less diversified than my asset picking. I have around 120 assets in my portfolio with fixed target allocation. My approach required massive upfront allocation optimization effort, but the continuous management effort (to rebalance to target when diverging beyond tolerated target deviation) is quite low.
  2. 1 point
    Interesting. A few years ago, I read an opinion that was exactly the opposite--that person said "every minute your money is in the market, it's at risk of loss due to an unexpected event." They advocated finding a situation where an imminent upward move was likely for a given stock, riding that move for a small gain, then selling to take that small profit. Then go look for another such situation--possibly a continuation with the same stock, but not necessarily. The rationale is to be in any given stock only for a short period of time, to avoid a huge loss when unexpected news hits, unless you're unlucky enough to have such news hit while you're in your short trading window with that stock. Having suffered several such "unexpected events" in my 10-year experiment with buy-and-hold, I found his logic compelling, and constructed my current frequent-trading-of-small-lots-for-small-gains approach from it. And that approach worked very well last year (return well over 100%, even with the collapse in November). Interesting to hear that a quite different (if not exact opposite) approach also produced excellent results. Seems to indicate my success wasn't necessarily due to anything superior in my approach--perhaps more of a "rising tide lifting all boats?"
  3. 1 point
    Thanks. My strategy now is more about maximizing "time in market" than trying "timing the market" so I don't try to have a view of where the market is going. The portfolio strategy is to be setup to handle all scenarios in the best way to maximize long-term return without assumptions about future direction other than that the mean reversion force of the market will eventually kick in. My view now is that we are quite close to mean in a longer time perspective so there is no bias to either side (up or down) for a large mean reversion risk in my view.
  4. 1 point
    Portola is purely the revenue growth story. If think of the revenue of $100M in 2019, the PE is about 10. In my opinion there is a potential for recovery beyond 20 but patience would be advisable. Too many shortsellers are crowding the stock. I do not own it for sometime. I am to engaged elsewhere and do not have cash. If I did I likely would buy to see where it goes. Proceed with caution


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