[Guest Klothilde]

So the big question when it comes to JASO is if they buy or add that value?

That's a good question. On the mono side I think the answer is quite straightforward in that they add value: Just compare the datasheets of CSIQ and JASO on standard 72-Cell 5' cells: http://www.canadiansolar.com/en/products/standard-modules/1.html http://www.jasolar.com/uploads/files/201210/20121018105345_r5ZcX3.pdf Here CSIQ's peak efficiency equates to JASO's average efficiency. And both company's start out from the same mono wafer. When it comes to poly standard 60 cell modules go from 235-255W for CSIQ and from 235-260W for JASO, thus not really a big difference there. Seems to me both CSIQ and JASO just buy the regular poly wafers from GCL. So I would guess to answer your question: no value purchase here in the form of external HP multi wafers. Interestingly their MAPLE quasi mono move seems to have died or been scaled down again. No talk on the last CC. I figure they may switch to HP multi instead, either through internal development or in partnership with GCL. P.D. Can you shed some light why you think their multi plant is uncompetitive? I'm just starting to dig deeper into JASO and also want to hear about the "dirty" secrets...

[Guest Klothilde]

No idea, I follow your inquires on JASO thread. I am hearing that JA is making huge effort to be number one Chinese company in Japan.

The interesting thing is that they are following a pure OEM approach in Japan, i.e. they leave branding and marketing to their partners. Given the known apathy of the japanese for chinese products imho this is a pretty smart move.

I also hear that they want to be big in China. On basis of this I am split on ASP.

As long as they generate cash in China I don't think there is a problem. They can use China as a sink to absorb whatever they cannot sell elsewhere and crank up utilization. If exports to Japan stay as high as in january then that volume alone will go a long way in covering opex and interest of the company...

[explo 648]

Klothilde, I think JA is mainly a mono play too, in terms of differentiating strength. This probably helps them too get big in Japan. The multi wafer plant was impaired in 11Q4 and 12Q3 if I remember correctly. Another thing to consider is that they've committed to take 10 gw wafer volume from GCL.

[Guest Klothilde]

I'll look into the poly side. The GCL contract seems to be based on market pricing, which is imo better than the trina contracts. Anyways, there are imo 2 pieces of critical information coming our way to shed more light on JASO: 1) COGS in Q4 to see if CPW is reconcilable 2) Export data for feb to see if jan was only a spike or a sign of a trend to come Regarding differentiation on the multi side: Imo it is a safe bet to consider that JASO is working on HP multi, especially since they seem to be winding down quasi mono and since they have a close partnership with GCL (also through tolling), who made inroads with their S1+ HP multi wafers already. One thing that I'm sensing is that the ramp of HP multi technology for some reason is not that straightforward. GCL seems to devote only a small fraction of their capacity to HP multi so far and also SOL is up till now basing almost all of their modules on quasi mono and has only started "trial production" of HP multi modules. Any thoughts on why the ramp is so slow?

[Guest JulyWebb]

That's good putting all that crap behind them! JA doesn't divulge much info on their cell cost is all I can see and from what they have said in past Q&A's Conference Calls they do not want to get into that referring to it as trade secrets as they are an OEM provider and not just a manufacturer of modules.

[Guest greensolar]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-21/ja-solar-says-it-s-prepared-money-to-pay-bonds-due-in-may.html

[Guest Klothilde]

“We should learn how to maintain sustainable and stable operations rather than pursue shipments,” Xie said. There's the prudent and the reckless, and this guy is one of the (few) prudents. Go figure who the reckless are... It's easy if you try...

[Guest Uncle Chang]

Good for JASO to be prepared. I think CSUN has more than prepared as all shares loaned to CS appeared to be back to CS on their SC 13G filing.

[Guest Uncle Chang]

By the way, I'm not pumping CSUN, people always blame me for pumping stocks. I just stated what I saw and CSUN's balancesheet happens to be one of the best of all. That said, none of the Chinese Solar company can survive financially if their banks insist pushing them off the cliffs demanding loan paybacks. I'm not bashing them either, and I don't think they'll be stupid to do that either.

[Guest Klothilde]

By the way, I'm not pumping CSUN, people always blame me for pumping stocks. I just stated what I saw and CSUN's balancesheet happens to be one of the best of all.

I think I'm missing s.th. fundamental here. Excel tells me that CSUN has the worst balance sheet after LDK. Net debt (173M) over equity (76M) was 229% in Q3. So what am I not seeing here?