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odyd

JA Solar (JASO)

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China's demand in H1 is expected to be at 5GW, and depending on no changes to FiT rates can be more. I think they will be rolling good this year.
I thought I read it would be back half loaded..?
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If China won't lower FiT after February Q2 may have on its own 5GW, I am told. Remember they expect 10GW this year, I would say add 20% to it.

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The last batch of Golden Sun has a June 30 deadline, so Q2 is going to be very good. I still expect a stronger H2 than H1 though. @odyd: You expect 12 GW from china but don't think we'll hit 35 GW globally?

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"NPD Solarbuzz expects 75% of the projected 7GW of demand in 2013 to occur in the second-half of the year." So 1.75 GW in 2013H1 compared to 3.5GW in 2012Q4 according to NPD Solarbuzz. But I guess that is quite uncertain due to policy dependence. http://www.pv-tech.org/news/npd_solarbuzz_asia_pacific_solar_demand_to_grow_50_in_2013

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I am more inclined to 33GW, about 10% more than what 2012 was. I am not comfortable give you numbers for the full global outcome, but my points are as follows: I look at the shipments recorded and guided and I see about 12GW (module only) for the 11, add another 6GW for the rest of the Chinese so that is 18GW, the other came from someone else (12GW). I think that if you had a full capacity from the 11 you are looking at 18GW, this will reduce other Chinese to 3GW so call it 21GW, and 12GW of others will not grow. There is also statements from YGE and JKS, 50% growth and 30% of capacities. They may only deliver current capacity shipments but you got to think about why they are saying it. I am not including this. This could turn another 2GW in a hurry.

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"NPD Solarbuzz expects 75% of the projected 7GW of demand in 2013 to occur in the second-half of the year." So 1.75 GW in 2013H1 compared to 3.5GW in 2012Q4 according to NPD Solarbuzz. But I guess that is quite uncertain due to policy dependence.

China predicts 10GW , Solarbuzz predicts 7GW. I tend to believe Solarzoom analysts over the Solarbuzz ones. Their 9GW on India is thumb-sucked number, I am not seeing anything like that even low 3.7GW looks like a fantasy.
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I'm currently crunching the numbers of JASO and there is a lot I like. Can someone tell me what speaks against JASO?

Not transparent with cost structure. Chairman doing arms length deals with other businesses he owns (is he or minority JASO owners benefitting). Looking at balance sheet they seem to have faired well compare to peers. I think this is due to being a middle man service partner. Without carrying own branded products they have been able to navigate the pricing volatility better (now they've ventured into branded modules though, thus competing with their customers). They signed a deal with Hefei city on Feb 26 2011 to spend 13.5 billion RMB to build 3 GW integrated wafer to module plant there. The project is supposed to be complete Sep 2013 (yeah right). Management hubris warning. To sum up JASO. Price is decent. Balance sheet is decent. What else are you getting? They don't like to tell you.
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