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dydo

JA Solar (JASO)

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JA looks like it has very small amount of sales on export, versus their projections. Those sales in Mainland will offset this hopefully.

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I know that JA shipped 6.7MW in Q3 to Japan, Suntech around 4, CSIQ 3MW and SolarOne about 2.5MW. Suntech did 50MW to the US and Yingli about 25MW. Data is of course only for 2 months of Q3.

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This is company's recent presentation with explanation on cypress, I am also testing ability to make attachments.

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Guest redsolar

Presentation looks impressive. My only concern with this company is lack of transparency. Why these guys pay so much interest per dollar borrowed while the peers pay less per dollar...is beyond my comprehension.

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That is a nice presentation. One of my big worries with JASO is their agreement with Hefei city to build 3GW integrated wafer to module capacity by 2013. They are already 2GW behind schedule. 3GW Chinese cell capacity in addition to the 2.8GW they have and are not fully utilizing in a time when there's question marks on whether Chinese cells will be eligible for the EU and US markets? The Hefei plant cost is estimated to 2.1 billion USD. That would stretch their now solid balance sheet. I find it a bit strange that analysts never ask about this.

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Guest greensolar

JA Solar’s Cypress cell reaches new high in average conversion efficiency

[*]

Posted Image

JA Solar's Cypress cells reach new average efficiencies.

[*]JASONASDAQ0.837

-0.021 (-2.47%)4:00PM EDT

The company noted in its Cypress series, its 6” full square monocrystalline solar modules and 6” standard monocrystalline modules now produce a power output of 280W and 270W, respectively. Additionally, its 6” multicrystalline solar modules produce a power output of 260W.

JA Solar pointed out that it has shipped over 300MW of its Cypress cells, including over 100MW to external customers. "We are delighted to have made yet another breakthrough with our Cypress series, as we continue to find innovative ways to service the market demand for high-quality, high-efficiency solar products," said Dr. Peng Fang, CEO of JA Solar. "By offering higher conversion efficiency without increasing the cost of cells, the Cypress cells further help to reduce the cost of modules on a per watt basis by ensuring a high power output. Customers are responding very well to this compelling value proposition, and we're confident that our continued focus on pushing technological boundaries will drive continued growth."

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/ja_solars_cypress_cell_reaches_new_high_in_average_conversion_efficiency

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Guest redsolar

***Aagreement with Hefei city*** JASO is not obligated to build the whole thing...and there is no dead line. So, first they have to clean the house ...before they start expanding....unless Hefei gives them some big power plant projects.

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Guest redsolar

These guys already operating in the sweet spot area..cells. The only concern right now...is ...under utilization. Hopefully the Cypress tech...keeps them busy selling modules and increase their market share.

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If it weren't for the under utilization now JASO would be one of the best solar 11 buys.

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Explo, JA's cell capacity is stone around their neck right now. Their technology well advanced by markets are narrowing for them. ReneSola looks like a visionary with not having cell capacity. They can buy cells from anyone but Mainland and build their modules. I think ReneSola can think of expansion outside of China.

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Guest redsolar

Yes...Also Renesola can build the latest and the greatest cell lines..if they want to. Cell automation has been advanced quite a bit..with all those laser spot welding etc.

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Yes, I think utilization is a key to avoid balance sheet deterioration. Especially for upstream businesses. Look how LDK's balance sheet is doing compared to SOL's. Utilization of course only means something if you quickly can turn the inventory at non-dumping prices. SOL sells wafers at full capacity and premium prices. No one else is in this position now. I think they are kind of passing a tough test here. Not only is their world (PV industry) on fire, Goliat (GCL) also challenged them during this time, and surprisingly SOL is standing most steadfast.

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Guest redsolar

Odyd, Do these numbers reflect only the module sales...or both module+cell exports.

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JA beat the guidance. Huge numbers in China, we saw that in our article, so I am happy we did not missed it. 0.72 is better than Jinko's 0.68 so geography is playing big time as Japan and Austalia offsets JA a lot better than Jinko's overseas shipments. Nice work on the BS by JA as well. $16M cash out but $83M of debt out with it. Good cash flow. I think the light is there at the end of the tunnel. With prices holding for 3 weeks in ASP, things can get interesting in January once more. I am really happy with Synergy going to have plant in Turkey, moving equipment from China, what a ballsy move.

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Couple of days old news. JASO is in a similar situation as SOL, with a brandless module division taking a lot of market-share and becoming the biggest revenue division of the company. This poses the question whether they'll continue to focus on the core cell business or focus primarily on module sales driven by their cell technology. Maybe the leadership change is related to this questions?

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Agree with several of you here in that SOL a solid chance of really taken market share and coming out a clear winner. Face it they have one of the best if not the best line up of module out there. poop even their latest test showed greater output than even they expected. Plus their management has the best R and D team out there and really limited their risk the last 2 years. I bought a couple large blocks in 1.50's and and as long as spot prices keep rising I'm holding long. Mother Nation is stepping up in 2013 in a big way... Glad I found this board.... Yahoo f in sucks

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Guest larryvand

One thing of note here is that JASO's short interest has skyrocketed (you can see it on odyd's data). On top of that, JASO has a conflict of interest that does not look well for the company... the new CEO Baofang Jin IMO... well, read below... http://seekingalpha.com/article/839381-2-chinese-solar-stocks-to-short-with-a-target-price-of-mere-cents ====================================== As an added negative point, this company has, by its own admission, an unusual corporate governance issue. I quote from the 2011 20-F filing: Jinglong BVI, which is controlled by the shareholders of Hebei Jinglong, is our largest shareholder. In addition, Mr. Baofang Jin, the executive chairman of our Board of Directors, is a shareholder of Jinglong BVI and is also the chairman of Hebei Jinglong. Jinglong Group (including Hebei Jinglong) currently provides a number of products and services to us, including silicon wafer supply (on prepayment terms) and real property leases. Our transactions with Jinglong Group are governed by a number of contracts, the terms of which were negotiated at what we believe are on an arm's length basis. In November 2011, we also completed the acquisition of Silver Age, a British Virgin Islands company controlled by Jinglong BVI. See "Item 7. Major Shareholders and Related Party Transactions - B. Related Party Transactions." However, the interest of Jinglong BVI may conflict with our own interest with respect to our transactions with Jinglong Group. As a result, we may have limited ability to negotiate with Jinglong Group over the terms of the agreements because Jinglong BVI may exert significant influence on our affairs through our Board of Directors. In addition, Jinglong BVI may be able to prevent us from taking actions to enforce or exercise our rights under the agreements we entered into with Jinglong Group. Furthermore, we cannot assure you that our transactions with Jinglong Group will always be concluded on terms favorable to us or maintained at the current level or at all in the future. As a result, when these situations arise, our financial condition, results of operations and implementation of strategy may be materially and adversely affected." Do you understand all of that and take any comfort from it? I do not. JA Solar is also a slam dunk sell.

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Guest eysteinh

Jinglong group seems to make ingots wafer cell and modules. So is JASO purchasing ingots and wafers at unfavorable terms compared with other companies? http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=33804201 "Jinglong Group Co., Ltd. produces large diameter and low content oxygen and carbon mono crystalline silicon ingot and wafer, solar cell, and module, as well as semiconductor equipment. Jinglong Group Co., Ltd. has a strategic cooperation with Jabil Circuit Inc. The company was founded in 1992 and is based in Ningjin, China." But I am still sceptical about this as this seems to be a very short type of article on seekingalpha. Perhaps someone who knows JASO more could elaborate theyre view?

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Unfortunately some of these solar 11s have a structure of majority owner = chairman = CEO. These are often successful Chinese business men owning multiple companies and often doing arms length deals between them. JASO is probably the worst example of this. They've not just bought wafers from the chairman's other companies. They've bought whole companies from him. One example was a wafer company, just before the wafer market crashed. If one is paranoid one would think that these companies listed in US to take money from americans and funnel to the chairman's pocket in the other (stronger?) private companies he owns. I don't believe that, but this structure doesn't help with the bad China sentiment among US investors.

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Guest littleguyintucson
Yes there is the good, the bad and the ugly? The good is this turns their inventory and should lower average costs going forward The bad based on a bump to 70% modules shipment, they will be pushing a lost of $1 a share The ugly, if they take more reserves for long live asset impairments.

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It seems to be a trend that those with domestic focus are beating guidance. SOL already guided 635 to 675 MW, so they probably saw the huge China Q4 demand ahead of some peers. I can see two reasons for JA shipping 25% more than they expected. One: they directly supplied the China module demand. Two: they got a lot of cell tolling orders from companies like SOL. SOL guided for around 70 MW Q4 China shipments of modules, up from none in Q3 and total module shipments up more than 100 MW from Q3. That should be easy tolling order for JA to claim. SOL is doing 40 MW projects in China as well in Q4 (another 6 MW is developed in Romania), so even more cell tolling might be required than their module shipments indicate. LDK sold of most of their cell capacity and might toll, GCL might toll cells and modules with different partners, but likely they would toll the modules as well from JA if they toll cell from them. It probably doesn't get better than 12Q4 for JA from the demand volume perpective. China demand will be much less in Q1 and Q2.

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It probably doesn't get better than 12Q4 for JA from the demand volume perpective. China demand will be much less in Q1 and Q2.

China's demand in H1 is expected to be at 5GW, and depending on no changes to FiT rates can be more. I think they will be rolling good this year.

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