[Guest acshen]

Entered a position in GTAT @ $16.60. Hoping the iPhone 6 announcement shows that they are using Sapphire on the 4.7" in addition to the 5.5" as per Pops.

[odyd 1,340]

We are faced with two or even three dilemmas.
1. We do not know expectations for China in detail. 
2. We do measure it by CEDR, which is not complete
3. We think they should deliver as they would know to deliver, hence guidance
We all have around 12 months of looking at data, which added to our experience. I am not convinced as said many times here that TSL can do 450MW or so and this is a low number as they still have to ship essentially double what they shipped in the two months to even scratch the surface.
I expected JKS miss Q1.  I thought they will have poor earnings. They did not miss (per say) but had horrendous earnings. 
There is a massive inventory for all, including TSL, but I think it is poly. There is nothing going to the EU for two months, another problem.  I think they will miss.  This is why I sold. Everyone else should be responsible for own actions.

[Guest JulyWebb]

I got crushed on GTAT today, because small investors are idiots and the MM's wanted it crushed. By year end,it'll all come back, but a stunning demonstration of what the big money boys can do.

 

Lost the usual amount on SUNE. Not worried at all there, it'll be back to new highs before its YieldCo fully launches. 

 

Bought a bit back into SPWR. Sold at peak for 80% gains, bought about 1/3 of the way back in at about 15% lower now. Just being defensive, in case they have some announcements coming. Again, not too worried.

 

Bought small slice back into JKS (my fave), CSIQ and JASO. They'll do fine by year end, I suspect, just didn't want to be fully loaded on that front for the tariff announcement. 

 

Lost on TSL, because every time I buy the damn thing it dives. Argh. 

 

And my lark of the moment, DragonWave, is doing just fine! Yay! Will make back 3% of what I lost on GTAT today.   

 

I know and the little guy just reacts Wow how cool no it's not cool. JA itself doesn't even do any business in the US to amt. to anything but I was surprised that they were announced by Zacks (strange) to supply a 13 MW US Project. No backbone is what I see it's definitely clear most investors or better said traders are sheoples when it comes to Solar and are not informed. LOL Rubble 

[Guest JulyWebb]

Entered a position in GTAT @ $16.60. Hoping the iPhone 6 announcement shows that they are using Sapphire on the 5.5" as per Pops.

 

GTAT should bounce back after losing over 15%. that's usually what happens and then we know whats next and that is not like it continues to soar either. jmo.

[odyd 1,340]

Explo,

Judging by your actions today, you have moved TSL purchases over to JASO. Are you motivated by CEDR to sell TSL or motivated by CEDR to buy JASO.  If you are motivated by JA did you not find attractive to get JKS, it seems like they are going to break the bank on exports.
Josh, you seemed convinced by TSL guidance are you re-thinking it now?

[pg6solar 97]

Josh, you seemed convinced by TSL guidance are you re-thinking it now?

 

Very interested to hear from Josh on the subject as well.

[Guest joshchang]

I think they can still meet low end shipment guidance. Even in the event of missing guidance, it is not easy to rule out the possibility of share appreciation after recent price drop (see what happened even after Q1 miss). It has 2nd best module margin just behind JKS, 2nd best balance sheet just behind JASO, a good balance of modules sale and projects development, economy of scale and one of the best management. For all these, you can get the company less than book value. Right now, CSIQ and JKS are clear winners and TSL can be a dark horse in this race. 

 

PS, just saw this Chinese article saying TSL is up 44% on shipment and 57% on revenue for 1st half. Don't know how accurate this is though.

 

http://roll.sohu.com/20140707/n401862819.shtml

[odyd 1,340]

JASO just issued ATM prospectus, I think. It seems my luck ran out.

[explo 648]

Explo,

Judging by your actions today, you have moved TSL purchases over to JASO. Are you motivated by CEDR to sell TSL or motivated by CEDR to buy JASO.  If you are motivated by JA did you not find attractive to get JKS, it seems like they are going to break the bank on exports.

Josh, you seemed convinced by TSL guidance are you re-thinking it now?

 

Yes on all points. TSL volume and GADP movement was not impressing. JASO's was. Jinko and CSIQ exports are also impressive. Especially CSIQ. Not sure if Jinko's exposure is optimal, but they should do well in Q2.

[odyd 1,340]

I think they can still meet low end shipment guidance. Even in the event of missing guidance, it is not easy to rule out the possibility of share appreciation after recent price drop (see what happened even after Q1 miss).

 

They sold a 50MW plant and they got couple of dollars for about a week. I think me and Explo are going to be pissed about $250M ATM from JA. I think this covers $111M of old offering but opens up another one for 140M.