[Guest redsolar]

Odyd, Really appreciate for sharing the valuable export numbers. SOL looks very bullish on module shipments...71MW exported in September alone? If we factor July, August months + domestic (China) shipments.....Q3 must be looking well above 180MW (170MW is the high guidance)...which sounds pretty good to me. What do you think Explo? Pending duties...Looks like Q4 shipments to Europe is going to be very high for everybody. Given Renesola module capacity and the increase geographic sales (US+India)...how they going to meet the demand?

[explo 648]

I agree red, the 71 mw in a single Q3 month is bullish when we see Trina cutting Q3 guidance heavily. Odyd's export data for whole Q3 for SOL was 184 mw, way above high end guidance on just exports. On module capacity they doubled to 1200 mw in Q2 to meet H2 demand, so that should be ok for now. And there's a lot of external cell tolling capacity available now.

[Guest redsolar]

Looks like Renesola gets the last laugh... With ...60c/w selling cost...even if they do 65c/w ASP....they are looking at above 7%GM....with positive cash flows due to 100% utilization. Wafer sales may bring the avg GM to 5%. CSI states...US market is one of the lowest margin market. They have better margins in Australia than USA. I guess the cell tolling and the tariffs taking a toll on all the Tier1 Chinese.

[explo 648]

Yes, compared to wafer makers like LDK and GCL with low utilization and ASP SOL is much more comfortable with its full upstream capacity utilization. Their growing module business will drive their margin short-term. While spot market spread between wafer and module is 45 cents, SOL's cost to convert wafer to module is only 33 cents.

[Guest redsolar]

Explo, Are you serious? only 33 cents from wafer to module? I guess..The cell tolling itself eats 20c.

[explo 648]

http://ir.renesola.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=210622&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1730277&highlight= "The Company expects solar module processing cost to decrease to below US$0.33/W and total solar module selling cost to decrease to below US$0.63/W in Q3 2012." I'm not sure if this includes the cell outsourcing cost. Probably excluded in the 33 cents and included in the 63 cents. They've said that the outsourcing penalty is very low now, 1-2 cents.

[Guest nanofrogfish_spf]

CSI states...US market is one of the lowest margin market. They have better margins in Australia than USA. I guess the cell tolling and the tariffs taking a toll on all the Tier1 Chinese.

Hey red, I'm not sure they were implying it was one of the lowest margin markets. The US was grouped in the higher margin category, while China, India and Thailand were the lowest margin. The other unclear part, is the discussion topic when this comment was made was about system "kit" profitability in Japan. So I'm not sure if that was specific to kits, or a general observation including modules (probably both). I wasn't really surprised about Australia, but I had thought the US would be a little better than the EU...but as you noted I guess the tariffs are the big difference. The quote from the CC: "And as a matter of fact, if I read the profit margin all key markets, Canada and Japan will rank it first and then the European market and maybe Australia market and then the U.S. market and the lowest margin market will be China, India and Thailand."

[odyd 1,340]

looks to me that Renesola is selling in China for about $0.64 per watt on the mono modules. http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20121116/402130.shtml Domestic prices include 17% vat.

[Guest redsolar]

Not bad...For SOL, selling cost in China will be much less than 63c/w guidance for Q3..out of China. If you consider 60c/w selling cost...we are looking at 6.25% GM. 12+15+33 = 60c/w

[odyd 1,340]

Websol, makes modules for Renesola out of the company's wafers. http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/chinese-co-renesola-wants-to-make-india-manufacturing-hub/article4077536.ece