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odyd

SunPower (SPWR)

    365 posts in this topic

    Good lord. You are not worried about your SOL investment? Let's hope SPWR never becomes competitive and that the machinery gets recycled into H-beams.

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    I'm not saying that SPWR will be the mass producer of low cost HP modules. They'll show that it can be done. Like Germany showed how BOS can come down when an industry is allowed to establish and mature. I think we all know who will do the cheapest cooking once the recipe is known.

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    SPWR keeps up with the pattern though: highest efficiencies and highest gross margin next to say FSLR(?) Who is to say they won't be cost leader, per watt? They claim that the X-series produces 75% more energy than conventional solar panels. What's conventional? A typical YGE panel? Whatever the case, 75% is a great deal, and I do not think their panels cost 75% more than the conventional panel. And it's much less likely to go bad.

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    Since the CC when Werner said that "a lot of the" first projects that Sunpower builds in in Inner Mongolia will be built in Hohhot, there has been another news piece cited in the yahoo mb. This one remarks on a SPWR 4 GW set of projects that are apparently part of the 7.5 GW larger project. Or so I assume. All part of the joint venture deal SPWR has in Inner Mongolia. I can't find this article. But there were plenty of articles that came out mentioning the 7.5 GW goal for Inner Mong. using SPWR C7 concentrated PV panels. Does anyone have a link to the newest article mentioning the 4 GW in projects? By the way, Odyd did confirm that the rather unpublicized agreement is for 7.5 GW and not MW. He said nothing further. Odyd, do you have any further information? And also, I did see a press release regarding the 7.5 GW in projects on one of the Asian JV partner's websites.

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    they are all saying 7.5GW and I did confirm this to be the case. However my source was quick to point out that it was MOU, which is always big in scope but never a match in reality.

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    Yes, I understand. And this is why I was more encouraged when I saw that someone had posted a new article about 4 GW project within the project and that Werner of SPWR had been talking about the "first" of "lots" of projects in Inner Mongolia. I think this series of projects is under the radar but not for too long, along with the whole C7 phenomenon.

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    from a TA point of view SPWR raid down is completely justified. In particular there is a gap 6.25 to be filled. I have a big buy order in this area though not sure the stock will be taken so low. Actually all solars are starting to line up for the Q1 reports (JKS is the only late stock, that is why some uncertainty makes JKS an outsider now) ). TSL stucks in 3.50-3.60 area with no move - a slow professionally designed short covering is in effect. YGE is still on a way down and the next leg down to 1.50 area has a big probability (JMHO). As for SOL I am more or less confident that a bottom is around or already reached though I can not exclude a fast short-live raid down to pick stop losses set by prudent investors/traders. If it is a case I prepared to buy really big trading position. As for my yesterday SOL pick I sold it for 1.36 today and set another buy order for the same 1.26 (why not to trade if you have a chance to make some pocket change). Good luck to all.

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    Does anyone know what process and technology (patents?) SPWR uses to achieve that high efficiency and why someone else can't do that same? Is there something proprietary?

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    SPWR keeps up with the pattern though: highest efficiencies and highest gross margin next to say FSLR(?) Who is to say they won't be cost leader, per watt? They claim that the X-series produces 75% more energy than conventional solar panels. What's conventional? A typical YGE panel?

    Whatever the case, 75% is a great deal, and I do not think their panels cost 75% more than the conventional panel. And it's much less likely to go bad.

    You are missing an important point. The article says

    "...results in approximately 75 percent more energy production over the first 25 years, when compared to a conventional solar system covering the same sized roof..."

    The comparison is between physical sizes.

    The following comparison is more relevant from cost/watt point of view.

    "...The X-Series delivers approximately eight to 10 percent more energy per rated watt when compared with conventional solar panels..."

    They are 8 to 10% more efficient. Do their panels cost 10% or more than other makers (for the same wattage rating)?

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