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odyd

SunPower (SPWR)

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    @odyd @explo: 25% cells is not realistic, the lab record for mono cells stands at 25.0% (NREL 1999). This means we can forget about 23% modules as well.

    Apparently from my vivid imagination: Cell 23%, module 21.5%, my bad for confusion.
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    I'm using $1 BOS saving instead of 40 cents. That's why I arrive at 25 cents instead of 10 cents efficiency adjustment. For SPWR the nisch is tight space, so instead of looking at area-dependent costs (since area is often fixed), you'll look at power independent costs (which I guess is the bulk).For same install size (same non-power dependent cost, like labor etc.), SPWR panels generate 36% more kWh, i.e. reducing per watt or per kWh costs with 26%.

    Ok I see. $1 BOS seems right for SPWR key residential markets. I would deduct at least the inverter however, as it clearly scales with power. Funny thing: In Germany residential BOS excluding Inverter is more in the order of $0,50, so BOS savings are not more than 12-13 uscents. This is not enough to generate a price premium that would allow profitable business. That's why we are seeing SPWR Europe numbers going down the drain. SPWR's business hinges heavily on its own project development (incl. leasing) and on high BOS-Cost markets.
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    Wow! that's the power of sun. So, JKS first, then SPWR, who is the next? (FSLR, CSIQ, SOL, TSL...)

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    The only thing makes me a little bit puzlled is a gap in 6.30 area. Statistics says that gaps get filled in 85% of cases. On the other hand 6.30 is a way too far from a current 11.40. Any thoughts on this issue. I concider SPWR as a very solid player due to state of the art high efficient panels. If you have a lack of space such as roof tops it can be a crucial factor when you make a choice what panels are more beneficial (Japanese may be the best customer for SPWR). Any idea if any of Chinese 11 are able to reach the same or close efficiency in the nearest future? BTW: FSLR panel efficiency over 12% is impressive (if memory servese me right they had less than 8% only a year ago).

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    I do not see why the gap will not get filled. I think SPWR is way to expensive.

    I agree, BUT nothing too expensive for a US company, for Chinses company, it is another story. Double standard, american style. :)
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    From the companies going out of business? Or does Sunpower maintain market share at same level, raise ASP, and ride the rising tide of demand? Also, how much more will Apple contract SPWR for building solar plants? How good will Q1 be? Q2 will be not so great, but there has been talk from at least one analyst of a "wildly profitable" H2. Any thoughts on just how wild the second half will be? Compare SPWR with what CSIQ is predicted by bulls of earning in H2. SPWR should earn a huge sum in H2 and in 2014. Must be measured in dollars, not cents. I am long on both stocks, seeing how CSIQ is ridiculously low in share price.

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