[odyd 1,340]

I could be confused, but all three could apply DTA to their earnings, as they have been profitable for over a year. TSL and JKS are really selling the same numbers as Q3, but minor adjustments, TSL has UK plant sale there and did the financing, so it can be better EPS. I am worried how balance sheet looks like form perspective of spent and transparency. I do not expect to look much better than Q3, but hope not for worse.

[odyd 1,340]

In case of JKS, how is that $25M DTA going to be replaced by objective of 770MW guided in Q4 versus 758MW sold in Q3? More DTA?

GM will be flat not higher, do we agree?

[odyd 1,340]

In case of JKS, how is that $25M DTA going to be replaced by objective of 770MW guided in Q4 versus 758MW sold in Q3? More DTA?

GM will be flat not higher, do we agree?

My statement is incorrect. The guided figure is 770MW vs. 658MW thus theoretical shipments are 112MW more. which is $67M at 0.602 average.

This should add around $3.2M (net income) to the bottom line which looks like $27M in total. Not sure on Forex and not sure on DTA, but if I just see this I would say $0.70 per share is my estimate for JKS. They drop another $20M gain on forex and DTA and we have $1.21

[odyd 1,340]

My CSIQ estimate is such 141MW total solution at $3.19, 720MW at about $0.70 average due to kits in Japan etc (this is a 0.03 drop on third party form Q3).

18.3% GM gross profit around $174M, same opex, operating profit left $120M, leverage and forex $15M loss, now about $105, Taxes would be the  same as Q3, maybe a bit lower but I think they can pull 20M out due to DTA, so $90M net roughly less minority, $85M left, around $1.42 per share.

If I am wrong on taxes could be  around 1.15 or so.

[odyd 1,340]

TSL, I see around $20M in net income producing basically $0.28 or double the Q3 result. How? Forex neutralized down to $10M loss and the 3MW in UK more bringing around $4M of net, hence the $20M, I am also seeing more DTA being employed. 

[pg6solar 97]

Thanks, Odyd.

 

Sunny and Explo, as DQ holder do you care to share your DQ estimates, if any?

[Scsnospam 117]

CSIQ estimates are 1.20/1.34/1.57. It seems we may be in for a possible miss if your numbers fall somewhere in between.

[odyd 1,340]

The average is 1.34, 

My total solution could be on the lower side. I am expecting to lose more on the financial side than Q3, which is very conservative on my part. My risk is on the side of taxes, where I see Only $15M instead of $34M. I am also not having anything beyond guidance, which is a low bet based on CEDR.

I am trying to be conservative. I like to see breakdowns from others as well.

[Guest chrisceeaustin]

thanks for the posts.  $1.34 for CSIQ sounds pretty good.  The stock was pounded based oil plummet, not because they thought $1.34 or $1.50 or 1.15 is too low in eps for Q4.  So, showing things just on track would be a good reason to take the stock back to 40.  Because back on track means $5 or $6 eps, and for CSIQ, a higher p/e will be given.

 

CSIQ is far more Western and "American" than before.  With 500 MW capacity in Canada, a huge pipeline in North America, biggest pipeline in Canada, and an arm called Recurrent, which is a major American solar developer, the name "Canadian" feels much truer right now than ever before.

 

That over the course of the year, I believe, will play out and give CSIQ a few extra p/e multiples, maybe giving it a 10 p/e instead of 6, or a 15 p/e instead of 10.  American investors like to hear about projects in their back yard.  Just my hunch.

[Pop2mollys 416]

Chrisc... Glad to have you back buddy. I think whether CSIQ is in line or beats by .20-.30 won't really make a difference as long as they deliver as expected. Really I think it all comes down to Yieldco details. Honestly I think this trumps everything.

What's really exciting to me is we are heading into this CC and don't have to be worried about analysts doubting their pipeline like every CC in past. Honestly all long CSIQ investors in the back of our minds where always worried about analysts nit picking pipeline and Yieldco details.

Now we are going into this CC and their pipeline is thriving and growing. While market punished their stock due to Japan uncertainties Qu was in background actually adding to the pipeline. Then overnight they became one of the biggest players in US.. All their ducks are in a row going into this CC.

They shut up Gordo, nothing but crickets from his camp. Hopefully he didn't get emotional and hold that short position because he is well underwater now.