Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
dydo

Quarterly Estimates

Recommended Posts

They have tried to sell the kitchen sink to get their quotas. I am surprised how well they managed their GM under the circumstances. They look quite messy on the balance sheet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Huge depreciation of absolute revenue per watt. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Curious what market will do with this Pop. May you can pick few nice stocks today. Down $2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Curious what market will do with this Pop. May you can pick few nice stocks today. Down $2

Yes let's see where dust settles today. Looks like it will see quite a bit of pressure today. I might wait till tomorrow before I take any action. Odyd your so dialed into these earnings it's pretty damn impressive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I knew it will be so so but losing money was beyond my scope. I knew they will have lower GM, but managed to keep 24%. They report in house of 26%. Yet the ASP has dropped dramatically down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites


Odyd your so dialed into these earnings it's pretty damn impressive.

I was also right in the CB. They hedged their currency and it flipped over on them. I am not sure how much they hedged in a past, but this is a massive mishap. I hope they will not take her 10% or more as they ravaged CSIQ. Where are they keeping those assets as they put them up, project assets are actually lower this Q. Do they keep them in PPE?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

100MW added to module sales for Q2. Looks small compared to TSL. Taking the retainage and FiT payment out. GM looked like 22.6%. So selling wafers and cells took the GM down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have an appetite for CSIQ and TSL right now. having 33M shares and potential to bring around $25M JKS looks like a 0.75 for Q2. So one has to own those shares at one point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I will enter JKS below $23, hoping to scrape the bottom at $22 or lower.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BTW in this set of forums members can speak about the price. At least I am sure they do not have fantasy portfolios to buy CEDR.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am setting orders at $23 for CSIQ and $22.5 for JKS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was also right in the CB. They hedged their currency and it flipped over on them. I am not sure how much they hedged in a past, but this is a massive mishap.

 

They did account for both old and new CBs, not like CSIQ who left new CB completely out. Issuance cost was $4.2M. Not sure why they hedged the CB principal for FX purpose. According to the CC, that was where they lost most money due to YMB sudden devaluation.

 

Their gross profit is $0.7M less than my estimate so GM and ASP must have been fine - Need to check on this more. What did them in for Q1 were (1) $22M FX loss (2) $5M more selling expenses. Without these two items, they could have earned 85 cents. I have to look more to find any other weaknesses. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regardless all of it the stock behaves strong in the first 15 mintues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am amazed at how strong it is. 2M shares traded already, only down 4%.

Hedgies again? How could the market get so smart today only, to look past an actual loss reported?

This might actually go positive at this rate !

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CSIQ did have a cost of CB as well.

 

I don't recall that I saw it - will check again. But I'm pretty sure they did not include the fair value change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems like some very strong hands were buying all morning, to bring it to unchanged. Retail showed its hand in premarket, down 9%. I'm guessing some fund is building a solar position here.

 

I would like to add to JKS for long term, but it almost seems help up "artificially" here. What do you guys think? Odyd, did you deploy your funds today?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree Scsnospam.

 

What better way to to accumulate a large position than to take advantage of panic selling at early doors. The share price is les than a percent of yesterdays close. You guys are far more qualified than me at whether the results were any good but there is someone out there that believes their worth a punt, even with a 50% haircut on the estimated eps. Technically, the share is not far off the top of the channel and less than a 100 points off the 200. if it manages to break out over these levels there is a lot of strength behind it and a rally should ensue. End of day should be interesting.

 

Bit of a head scratcher really.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't recall that I saw it - will check again. But I'm pretty sure they did not include the fair value change.

 

only cost of CB

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×