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2 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Digitimes talking about 130GWp of PERC cell capacity by year end vs. 100GWp of global PV demand.  I.e. epic overcapacity.

This is horrible for Junko and Canadian who have both invested hundreds of millions in PERC cell capacity in hopes of higher margins.

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20190722PD209.html

I don't know what to make of the article. It is the year end Perc capacity they are talking about.  The 130GW is year end capacity.  That would put production levels at 120-140GW for 2020 depending on capacity adds. As most production is migrating or migrated to PERC, you will find the legacy capacity virtually extinct.

 

As global demand estimates for solar is 120-130GW for 2019, a cpacity of most all PERC at 130GW is reasonable as demand should be 140-150GW in 2020. As for fear of oversupply and a continued price drop, well lets just say the prices need to continue to drop in order to meet grid. The sooner the better.

 

The real question is how the heck is First Solar going to compete now that their S4 is not competitive globally and their S6 will soon not be competitive either at the volumes they sell at? The CN Super tiers are going to clean their lunch as they have lower margins requirements to handle opex and interest. When combined with just needing a 1/2 cent profit per watt to make a $100M a year at the 20GW capacities well, you can see how FSLR at their paltry 6GW production will be fairing.

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China has installed 11GW in the first half. The second half is supposed to install 30GW in the second half. It appears from this article that most of that is going to be in the 4th quarter as JKS was suggesting int heir con call. It also suggests the 3rd quarter will be a price trough and the 4th quarter will see 5-10% price rise.

 

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190729/995850.shtml

"Huang Haiyan, vice president of Zhengtai New Energy, said at the PV Industry Chain Forum the previous day that prices have dropped in the second quarter of this year as high-efficiency component capacity has been released. The third quarter is a trough, and prices are on a downward trend. In the fourth quarter, market demand is strong and component price cuts will rise. Li Dong, assistant president of JA Solar, predicts that the price of monocrystalline modules will increase by 5%-10% in the fourth quarter of this year."

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Article claiming mono tech will essentially wipe out multi in the short-term.  2020 will already see 80% market share of mono:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190730/996233.shtml

Underlying reason is diamond wire cutting tech has dramatically improved the cost efficiency of mono tech vs multi and rendered the latter completely uncompetitive.

Nothing new, just another confirmation by someone who has put one and one together.

Imho this will catch up with CSIQ quite quickly you guys.  They will be forced to do a quick shift to 100% mono, with all the associated investment and impairment.  Don't get fooled by Qu's fairy tales that they are immune to the tech switch you guys.

 

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5 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Imho this will catch up with CSIQ quite quickly you guys.  They will be forced to do a quick shift to 100% mono, with all the associated investment and impairment.  Don't get fooled by Qu's fairy tales that they are immune to the tech switch you guys.

Didn't CSIQ invest heavily in saws (diamond wire ones to be specific) when the finally integrated upstream a few years back? I think they still remained averse to invest heavily in ingot tech. Different to JKS and YGE (who overpaid for P-type multi and N-type mono ingot tech).

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On 7/30/2019 at 10:35 AM, explo said:

Didn't CSIQ invest heavily in saws (diamond wire ones to be specific) when the finally integrated upstream a few years back? I think they still remained averse to invest heavily in ingot tech. Different to JKS and YGE (who overpaid for P-type multi and N-type mono ingot tech).

They have 5GW of wafer sawing capacity that I presume works both with mono and multi ingots.  However they have essentially zero mono-ingoting capacity (compared to 11.5GW that JKS will have by year-end).

 

 

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This RMB currency is indirectly related to Solar.  The China has allowed the RMB to continue to fall. It is now over 7RMB to the dollar.. To me, the depreciation of the RMB could lead to another 5-10% drop in ASP before any cost cuttings and efficiency improvements. This decline is also going to create sizable FOREX losses as books and contracts get adjusted.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/emerging-markets-chinas-yuan-drops-093948895.html

 

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Another Guangfu article on the power plant disaster in China:
http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190806/997796.shtml

Interesting bit of information is that loans for power plants usually carry a 3-5 year grace period during which only the interest needs to be paid.  This may be a key reason why we haven't heard of jinko power liquidity issues yet.  You guys be  careful now, this is a ticking time bomb for JKS that can go off in 2 minutes or 2 years,  we don't know.  Keep your eyes and ears open for the slightest news that may point to issues at jinko power, you don't want to be caught on the wrong foot...

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GCL poly out with H1 19 results:
http://gcl-poly.todayir.com/attachment/2019080708080243643580811_en.pdf

"...Gross profit margin for the Solar Material business decreased from 16.2% for the six months ended 30 June 2018 to 0.9% for the six months ended 30 June 2019..."

Means that they are selling their wafers to CSIQ and others roughly at production cost.

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It appears there is no ASP price bump. Reading the tea leaves it looks like oversupply still abounds as the ASP has dropped 20% in the past to 2 months for wafers.

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/special/?id=99942

 

Take Tongwei Solar, the world's largest battery supplier, for example. Last week, its official website released the price of the battery in August, and the PERC battery dropped by more than 10%. Among them, the 156.75 size single crystal PERC battery dropped to 1 yuan / W, down 13.8% from the previous month; the 158.75 size single crystal PERC battery fell to 1.03 yuan / W, down 13.4% from the previous month; the ingot single crystal PERC battery fell to 0.95 Yuan/W, down 12.8% from the previous month.

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Fortunately, in science we learn even from those experiments that fail.

I'm still waiting for the roof tiles with integrated solar panels.  And the windows (yes, that means with translucent solar panels).  THOSE will be game changers (again).

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4 hours ago, solarpete said:

Fortunately, in science we learn even from those experiments that fail.

I'm still waiting for the roof tiles with integrated solar panels.  And the windows (yes, that means with translucent solar panels).  THOSE will be game changers (again).

I was quoted some Suntech Solar roof tiles back around 2010. The company  that bid them came back 2 weeks later and  said they were on back order and did not know when they would be available. I changed to a different company and got Sunpower Modules instead. Then I found out that the Suntech Panels were having manufacturing design and quality issues that was causing roof fires. You always have to be careful with new Tech.

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