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12 hours ago, solarpete said:

 But with demand expected to pick up by 3Q 19, those increased volumes in the second half of the year should drive increased profits, even if margins remain the same.

Who is drinking the PR Koolaid being presented by the solars? The preaching of demand increase in the second half is nothing new. For the past decade most shipments have been back end loaded. The standard estimations had been 60/40 with 60% of the shipments back end loaded.

 

So what does the current guidance really suggest? From the looks of it, it suggests standard shipments based on a standard 60/40 breakdown. That is not a strong demand increase rather an expected supply demand scenario.

 

Las year Jinko shipped 58% of their modules in the second half. This years 14.5GW suggests 5.8GW shipped in the first half. Q1 is traditionally their weakest quarter  and Q2 is typically a strong quarter. They are guiding 2.9GW or 50% of the first half shipments in Q1. This suggests based on total shipments that the second half will be a normal second half as far as shipments go.

 

Canadian Solar shipped 54% of their modules in the second half last year. This years guidance of 7.7GW suggests a need to ship  3GW in the first half. Their Q1 guidance is 1.35GW or 45% of their first half shipments. Q2 is typically stronger and they only need to ship 1.7GW to meet the typical first half 40% of shipments. That 1.7GW is what they shipped last year in Q2. This suggests that the second half will be a normal second half and not gut kicked by a sudden CN policy change.

 

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I think CSIQ's shipments will be more backloaded this year vs. last year when compared with JKS.

JKS' Q1 2018 shipments of 2015MW were 17.7% of FY 2018 total shipments of 11380MW
Their Q1 2019 guidance of 2850MW is 19.7% of FY 2019 total guidance of 14500MW

This suggests higher Q1 shipment fraction vs. last year and thus less backloading this year.

 

CSIQ's Q1 2018 shipments of 1374MW were 20.8% of FY 2018 total shipments of 6615MW
Their Q1 2019 guidance of 1350MW is 17.8% of FY 2019 total guidance of 7600MW

This suggests lower Q1 shipment fraction vs. last year and thus more backloading this year.  Though I personally think they will end up lowering their guidance instead.  But even if they meet their guidance, Qu already warned that profits are going down this year.

 

 

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9 hours ago, Klothilde said:

So can you specify which company should see increased profits in 2019?  CSIQ?  DQ? JKS? FSLR?

I said the second half of this year, compared to the first half.  And the answer is, any company that sells more in the second half at the same margin.

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GCL came out with FY 2018 figures you guys:
http://www3.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/SEHK/2019/0329/LTN20190329163.pdf

From this and their H1 18 figures I get for H2 18:

Gross margin solar materials division: -5%
ASP wafers: 6.5 cts/W
cost wafers: 6.8 cts/W

In a nutshell this shows that mono (Longi) is taking multi (GCL) to the cleaners big time.  GCL is trying to fight back by migrating to quasi-mono and mono.  Let's see in H1 19 if they show an improvement.

Imho the above also bodes ill for CSIQ who has focused strongly on multi.  The nastiness of multi should permeate their business over the next quarters as module contract prices come down to spot level.  Imho of course, feel free to worship them if you feel like it.

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IHS forcasting 2019 Global solar installs reaching 129GW or a 25% growth. They also suggest that this is with China uncertainty at 45GW. Think of that, if CHina does more demand could be more. This makes JKS guidance actually quite acceptable and Canadian Solars guidance quite weak.

 

https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2019/04/04/global-solar-pv-will-reclaim-double-digit-growth-in-2019-says-ihs-markit/

 

The global solar PV market is set to bounce back from single-digit growth in 2018 to 25% in 2019, reaching 129 GW of solar installations, according to global business information provider IHS Markit.

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Has anyone noticed that PV insights has a new wafer category for 158.75MM mono wafers. These are the new rectangular half cut cells that are being used in the new highpowered 415W 72 cell modules.

http://pvinsights.com/


158.75 / 161.75mm Mono Wafer    0.460    0.415    0.439

 

According to this article , these wafers are in very high demand. Jinko is migrating/has migrated their mono wafers to this new size, and GCL is doing the same for Multi cells. The deliver around 4% more power and demand a higher price than the cost to manufacture. Demand is so high that Jinko and their 5GW have gone to buying these wafers from outside sources to meed demand as customers were going elsewhere.

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20190408/973273.shtml

"As the initiator of the 158.75mm square single crystal specification, Jinko Energy not only switched its own 5GW monocrystalline silicon wafer to 158.75mm in the fourth quarter of last year, but also purchased the silicon wafer of this size from the outside, because its own production capacity is completely Unable to meet end market demand."

" In the environment where the monocrystalline silicon wafer is in short supply, the premium brought by the elimination of the lead angle to the industrial chain will be mostly eaten by the monocrystalline silicon wafer. That is to say, although the elimination of the lead angle may increase the cost of each wafer by 0.17 yuan, the price can be sold at 0.35 yuan, and the profit margin is better."

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This doesn't really belong on the forum, but kinda does... anyone have any experience with Mission Solar panels?  We're looking to finally go solar and a local company pitched these as a great option for us.  Anyone have any opinions on quality?

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2 hours ago, Mark said:

This doesn't really belong on the forum, but kinda does... anyone have any experience with Mission Solar panels?  We're looking to finally go solar and a local company pitched these as a great option for us.  Anyone have any opinions on quality?

Only what the web shows. The web suggests they are a 200MW facility that assembles the modules in San AntonioTexas.  They use Asian sourced components. They shut down their 100MW cell late 2016

 

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2016/10/03/mission-solar-energy-to-close-texas-cell-lines-lay-off-87-employees_100026343/

 

There warranty is 4 to 12 years on mechanical assemby and 25 yrs on power degredataion

http://www.missionsolar.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/MSE-PV-Module-Limited-Warranty-2018-2019-4BB-5BB.pdf

 

They wholesale for around $0.70/watt

https://www.bluepacificsolar.com/best-solar-panels.html

 

It looks like they are a subsidiary of OCI lmtd, those same  Multi National guys who make Poly in Seoul Korea.

http://www.missionsolar.com/about-us/

 

They started up around 2014 and have panels installed in the Alamo1 power plant located in San Antonio area.

https://newsroom.cpsenergy.com/made-san-antonio-solar-panels/

 

 

Hope this helps. 

  • Thanks 1

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China enters 18-month transition to subsidy-free solar

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/04/11/china-enters-18-month-transition-to-subsidy-free-solar/

If this new policy will have similar effect on components cost in China as May 31 policy, then companies like Canadian solar (with 90% of their sales outside of China) will benefit enormously. Margins will be in the 20-25% range again.

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35 minutes ago, MVA said:

China enters 18-month transition to subsidy-free solar

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/04/11/china-enters-18-month-transition-to-subsidy-free-solar/

If this new policy will have similar effect on components cost in China as May 31 policy, then companies like Canadian solar (with 90% of their sales outside of China) will benefit enormously. Margins will be in the 20-25% range again.

I'm glad you were able to parse through that and understand.. i read the story 3 times this morning and still don't feel like I have much 'light shed' on my understanding of it and its effects.

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15 minutes ago, Mark said:

I'm glad you were able to parse through that and understand.. i read the story 3 times this morning and still don't feel like I have much 'light shed' on my understanding of it and its effects.

A little bit more details here...

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/china-plans-to-enter-a-subsidy-free-solar-market-beginning-in-2021

 

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On 4/15/2019 at 3:20 PM, MVA said:

Looks like H2/2019 in China will be explosive: with about 15 GW PV installations per quarter...

https://www.pv-tech.org/news/chinas-new-subsidy-programme-could-support-up-to-50gw-says-official

The article is actually pessimistic overall for the year. They are suggesting 40GW. Most of the articles I have read and what JKS and others are suggesting is they expect an over under at 45GW.

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I haven't read all articles on demand speculation, but following this industry for 10 years I've seen that low price on money is usually boosting demand. FED and ECB pivot to economy accommodation will make those spreadsheets on solar IRR look more attractive. Who's making money on the demand is then decided by the forex moves. Keep your cost in weak currencies and sales in the strong ones. Note that the places where money is cheap can see its currency strength effected by this.

Sure what's going on in the industry and at its companies matters too 😉  

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15 hours ago, MVA said:

We will see in Energytrend comments tomorrow if it is typo or not...

No I do not see it as a typo. I see it as a market demand. Articles from China had been suggesting that the mono demand in China is weak because of the price disparity between a watt of Multi that was at $0.21 and a watt of High Perf Perc that was at $0.28. That spread was pushing builders to take multi over mono. So what you see is the dicotomy of low Multi production being suddenly in demand and the price rise with it, while Mono which is being pushed as the tech driven down to try and compete with price spread difference.

 

Even the CEO of CSIQ indicated he expected the Mono Multi price to converge and get back to norms where the cost to build a project has little impact if Multi was to be used over Mono. That would be back down to a $0.02-$0.03 spread. The way you get there is to have Multi rise and Mono drop.

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China installing 5.2GW in Q1:
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/04/18/new-figures-reveal-effect-of-policy-vacuum-on-chinas-large-scale-solar/

"The latest new solar capacity figures to emerge from China have painted an even grimmer picture than previously thought as a continuing national PV policy vacuum keeps the utility scale segment of the world’s biggest solar marketplace in the doldrums."

 

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On 4/18/2019 at 7:17 AM, SCSolar said:

No I do not see it as a typo. I see it as a market demand.

Question is where should that demand come from?  Grid parity yadda yadda yadda?  Q2 was historically strong because of the rush to meet the 6/30 deadline in China.  This time around demand there is deserted.  Japan and India had their FY end at the end of march so demand there is low as well.  Demand in Europe and U.S. is tipically skewed towards the end of the year.

My thinking is along the lines of PVInfolink in that May and June will be weak and demand may start to warm up earliest in July IF the CN policy is put in place effectively:
https://en.pvinfolink.com/post-view.php?ID=180

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14 hours ago, Klothilde said:

Question is where should that demand come from?  Grid parity yadda yadda yadda?  Q2 was historically strong because of the rush to meet the 6/30 deadline in China.  This time around demand there is deserted.  Japan and India had their FY end at the end of march so demand there is low as well.  Demand in Europe and U.S. is tipically skewed towards the end of the year.

My thinking is along the lines of PVInfolink in that May and June will be weak and demand may start to warm up earliest in July IF the CN policy is put in place effectively:
https://en.pvinfolink.com/post-view.php?ID=180

Well IHS did recently suggest 25% market growth this year to 129GW and that was based on China being basically flat.

 

https://technology.ihs.com/612579/global-solar-pv-market-returns-to-double-digit-growth-in-2019-ihs-markit-says

 

As for the demand imbalance there was a thread I posted back around March 8th regarding Mono had jumped to a 25% price premium. It was noted that this would cause demand issues and that prices would need to rebalance in order for mono to be competitive.

 

 

And before that in February there was a that suggested China needs to cut prices by 28% for grid parity. That would require a near 7-8% price cut in module costs to achieve that target.

 

 

To me all the hoopla you are raising is to be expected based on past policy changes and directions that the market needs to head.  This was forecast months ago. The overseas demand is strong and the domestic China was slow. The price imbalance was not sustainable between Multi and Mono and as you have noted that people are selling Multi at cash costs dumping inventory. That cost structure was not sustainable and prices had to rise or massive losses. Well the recent Multi prices show that yes the prices are going back up and the only way this is done is if there are buyers. The mono is falling as the insights shows and that is because the price spread. There is no sky is falling scenario here as this is just current market dynamics that will have little impact on the major players long term.

 

 

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Well we will have to agree to disagree because my alternative facts (PVInfolink, see below) tell me that multi is not going anywhere.  Toodles.

1489825423_ChinaModulePrices.thumb.jpg.7e1beb38167f2589f6eaebbbf31a6188.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

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On ‎4‎/‎20‎/‎2019 at 6:47 AM, Klothilde said:

My thinking is along the lines of PVInfolink in that May and June will be weak and demand may start to warm up earliest in July

OK, say you're right.  So what????  In other posts you make rosy prognostications for FSLR for 2021, and here you're worried about the next 3 months????

I'm normally quite the fan of Ralph Waldo Emerson ("A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds"), but this is ridiculous.

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