odyd

Solar News

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Based on months of observation, HSOL, CSIQ, CSUN have been positive year to date, SOL has been flip-flopping around the positive'negative line with loss of 4.58% ytd. JKS has shown strength but still lost 22.2% ytd. It seems to me that STP and DQ are trying hard to maintain $1 listing requirement, STP can surely do reverse split, don't DQ can do that. JASO is trading at 86c, it might get de-listing notice if it doesn't move over $1 shortly, we'll see if the funds will support it.

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Hi Chang, I moved your post to this forum. I also moved my own to show recent news, including market in China. Let's try to keep the posts to companies or start threading under this forum.

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<<when the turnover got gloomier, some silicon material traders chose to expand shipments to improve their liquidity and avoid the adjustment of the price after the holiday...More and more enterprises shut down this week, and some of them withdrew from the market and even went bankrupt...>> Other than what have been mentioned, cells makers also dumped Wafers, modules makers dumped Cells, I think they don't want extra "raw materials" sitting there if they can buy more cheaper later... One thing that's for sure. They can't keep producing what they can not sell, and they can not keep losing money without getting into more financial troubles. This gotta come to the end at some point, we're not really watching Ocean-7 or 11, Chinese Solars can end up with just 5? How do they come from 11 to 5 is probably everyone's guess, even the top tiers look shakier than the little ones!

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It's time to forget too big to fail. Instead it's easy to make a "too expensive to bailout" list. No one of solar 11 has a market cap much above 300m anymore, so the price tag for most of them are their net debts. Here are the net debts to bail out to give the different solar 11 and GCL capacity parks a sustainable financial structure: GCL 3.16b LDK 2.61b YGE 1.86b STP 1.63b JASO 0.55b SOL 0.55b TSL 0.52b HSOL 0.42b JKS 0.40b CSIQ 0.35b DQ 0.29b CSUN 0.21b Who has technology/capacity that stands out? I'd say GCL on poly and wafer SOL on wafer JASO on cell YGE on wafer and cell LDK is a mess and to expensive to bailout. Sell Mahong and some of the other decent capacity to someone that can make efficient use of it. JASO committed to build 3GW integrated in Hefei. Let them take over LDK's Hefei capacity on the cheap. JKS could use a poly plant at home, in Jiangxi province, maybe they can make LDK's Mahong as efficient as their other plants. STP is too expensive to bail-out. What do they have? A poster boy, a brand name and unfeasible cost structure? I don't see much point in saving those two, just extract some of the useful parts for others. YGE might hold the future tech, but is really expensive to bail-out. Hard to call, since short-term SOL and JASO can provide same quality panels at lower cost. LDK and STP can fail because it is expensive to let them not and there's no real tech and knowhow there. Fail them to relieve Chinese PV industry of the debt burden their reckless management has brought upon it and then make better use of the capacity, overtaken at foreclosure prices. DQ and CSUN? Too small to succeed?

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Good perspective Explo. As per your net debt theory...don't you think CSI looks more interesting than others? I am asking this based on their project revenue prospects going into 2013 and their lean business model.

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