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dydo

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dydo last won the day on September 23

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About dydo

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  • Location :
    Airdrie, Alberta

Portfolio

  • Portfolio %
    FSLR 66% CSIQ 34%

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  1. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    I made my own observations under the recent, excellent article posted on SA https://seekingalpha.com/article/4108224-canadian-solar-rare-bargain-hiding-plain-sight I quote it in full here, Author, thank you for an excellent article. A couple of observations. The resale value of $1.8B, as per quote from the company release, includes “only the class B share value of the Company's tax equity deal projects in the U.S.” In my interpretation, this excludes minority-owned 49% of Southern purchase worth to the company $297M in carrying value under, as you have excellently pointed out, investment in affiliates. The confirmation is offered by the asset valuation of 1.26GW of operational plants, where the investment in affiliates is not included. I quote the company’s statement as “recorded on its balance sheet as project assets ($1,308.5 million), assets held-for-sale ($203.5 million) and solar power systems, net ($65.8 million). “ So 897MW, including the only 443MW in the US, is recorded as $1.57B worth of assets with the resell value of $1.8B. Based on the balance sheet from the Q2 the company had as much as $2.1B in solar plant assets, in three asset lines mentioned already, plus the non-current solar plant assets, including those in construction. For all those assets, the company has declared $1.3B in debt. The net of equity against the debt is $700M. At this point, the $297M of equity in affiliates is not included. However, it is easy to assume that at a minimum, $700M of equity is recoverable, if sales had zero profit. Canadian received only $190M in revenue from Southern in the sale of 379MW, which indicates that Southern has potentially taken on all the debt. In this case, $297M could be recoverable in full. Since all the projects have capitalized expenses, I would think the gross profit from $1.8B resale, in the amount of $222M can go all the way to the bottom line. I am not sure how much gross profit would be offered for 49% minority ownership of 363MW. At $0.15 per watt additional $55M could be extracted. In total, CSIQ can see around $1.2B added into cash with a reduction of debt by $1.3B. Since the $1.3B in equity of plants generates electricity, further debt is being reduced, therefore, improving the level of equity. Recurrent does have 6GW in mid-term project development pipeline in the US. CSIQ should be able to expand Canadian operations to few hundred of GW and use cell factory in Thailand to support tariff-free modules for own developer since Canada was not found as a cause of injury under Suniva. Lastly, the 75MW sold to IPO fund which the trading suppose to start on October 30th this year are estimated to sell at $3.51/watt. The revenue from those projects is about $28M per year based on FiT and generation. The 20% ownership retention would bring additional $0.70 per watt, which is very close in your estimates with $4.21 per watt.
  2. Trading Solars

    The point is it does not apply to any other countries. Non-Chinese cell put into a module in Canada becomes Canadian origin based on NAFTA agreements. The same cell in Peru becomes a tariff module unless the cells are made in Peru. Hence the benefit to FSLR is intact and benefit to CSIQ at this point is greater above anyone else unless they open plants in Canada.
  3. Trading Solars

    Actually, I do know why. I am a logistics specialist so I can tell you that you ship a 53-foot load of modules from Canada anywhere in the US under $5K. I am convinced the price from Panama or Peru is triple.
  4. Trading Solars

    I do not know Explo, maybe because they do not have capacity in Peru but in Canada and based on safeguard rules which I have quoted again, cells from anywhere on the planet put into a module in Canada are Canadian in origin. So to spell this out, CSIQ does not need to have call capacity in Canada, as long as the cells are not Chinese since Canada has tariffs on those, and they can expand, which I think they already did, the module only capacity.
  5. Trading Solars

    To add, based on rules of origin, any cells put into Canadian modules are considered Canadian. As I have stated all along here Canadian is positioned equally well with First Solar to take benefits of the tariff. They will not put Chinese cells but Thai ones and they are good to go. They will also roll out module capacity in Canada. I think they actually have done it but never announced this expansion.
  6. Trading Solars

    This below summarizes that Canada is found not to contribute to injury in 3 to 1 vote. However, Mexico is. SunPower going up was for wrong reasons. Looks like REC will be able to sell their product since is located in Singapore. Canadian Solar will probably announce a capacity increase in Canada at one point. With respect to imports from the NAFTA countries, Chairman Schmidtlein, Vice Chairman Johanson, and Commissioners Williamson and Broadbent found that imports of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells (whether or not partially or fully assembled into other products) from Mexico account for a substantial share of total imports and contribute importantly to the serious injury caused by imports. Vice Chairman Johanson and Commissioners Williamson and Broadbent made a negative finding with respect to imports from Canada. Chairman Schmidtlein found such imports from Canada account for a substantial share of total imports and contribute importantly to the serious injury caused by imports. https://www.usitc.gov/press_room/news_release/2017/er0922ll832.htm
  7. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    There is my translation of the registration document in regard to pricing per watt, scope of the plants being sold and their production capacity
  8. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Those who read Japanese there are PDFs attached, but copying has a password and I cannot get a translation. http://www.jpx.co.jp/equities/products/infrastructure/issues/index.html
  9. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Canadian Solar Infrastructure Fund, Inc. will trade on October 30th, 2017. on Tokyo Stock Exchange http://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/products/infrastructure/issues/index.html
  10. Trading Solars

    This was part of the analysis made by Bloomberg, I made a link here and quoted those numbers.
  11. Trading Solars

    I relocated small slice to CSIQ update on % later today
  12. Trading Solars

    I wonder how last hour plays. I expect more $100 PT surface on Monday.
  13. Trading Solars

    CSIQ has gained more than FSLR. NAFTA was a winning bet with 1% of imports from Canada and 11% from Mexico.
  14. Trading Solars

    I am keeping FSLR as I think that stock will explode with capacity announcements to serve US markets I think CSIQ will make one as well.
  15. Trading Solars

    Jet, What do you think? Keep both FSLR and CSIQ? JKS is going to be trouble in my view
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