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dydo

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dydo last won the day on August 22

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About dydo

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    Airdrie, Alberta

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    CSIQ 95% $5%

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  1. Trading Solars

    I think you are mixing corporate debt with project debt I would like to see your math.
  2. JA Solar (JASO)

    JASO's higher than CSIQ ASP indicates they sold mono- PERC modules. Cells sold could have been mono cells as well. CSIQ with its 2GW wafer only erected by Q2 sold legacy modules, transitioning to Q4's 4GW wafer. They buy cells and will buy least of them by Q1, but they will enter 2018 with an imbalance of 2.5GW. We should know of their plans upon Q4 results if black silicon is added or will they add mono. Those actions will also be taken after Suniva activity is resolved.
  3. JA Solar (JASO)

    I used the information given in their cc and numbers built in their results. If you multiply modules by 0.38 average you are left with the amount which divided by cell shipment gives the price of $0.37 per cell watt. If you multiply modules by the cost of $0.31 you end up $0.60 per watt in the same for a cell. I can only assume there are other factors, but I cannot think of tariffs, they should not pay them. The problem is, of course, the cost. They are nowhere near the cost of $0.31, they are probably using OEM, and yes it does appear to be a very lucrative cell sale which could be selling to the third party associate, like Jinglong. Just for exercise if you move the cost to $0.334 you end up in the place that cell sold have a lower cost of about $0.28. The GM is also close to 13%. They said it was a blended cost, so I am not sure.
  4. First Solar (FSLR)

    First Solar sold 280MW California Flats project, surely CSIQ standing still tactic raises few eyebrows. Especially Capital Dynamics is a Swiss Asset Company. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2017/08/22/first-solar-sells-another-280-mw-ac-solar-project/
  5. JA Solar (JASO)

    According to JASO, their ASP was $0.38 and their cost was $0.31, that is 18.4% GM, how did they end up with 12.9% GM? If I use this math, it appears that cells sold at 0.37 per watt at the cost of 0.60. JASO was always the hardest to figure out, but in the past, at least they provided a percentage of revenue breakdown by a module and a cell.
  6. Trading Solars

    Hi, Alex, it has been a long time. I share your view on cheap CSIQ. I look at the CAFD, and the stock is worth about $1.1B based on the solar plant value of $1.96 per watt, not including debt. They have 569MWac and CSIQ owns 969MWac globally. the stock is worth $860M and the company produces roughly $2.8B in sales a year just from operations of selling modules. Apparently selling US solar plants in Q1 deprives the company of $1B in value according to an analyst from Barclay. That is $16 off the stock price for late sale. Some things just do not make a lot of sense.
  7. JinkoSolar (JKS)

    As per streetinsider Credit Suisse downgraded JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. (NYSE: JKS) from Outperform to Neutral with a price target of $20.00 (from $25.00). Fly reports price from $20 to $25. Earnings increase would support move up in price. Analyst Maheep Mandloi raises estimates as demand improves and product shifts, however the downgrade comes as as the current price does not yet factor in oversupply in 2018+. Counter to market expectations, per the firm's proprietary model poly/wafer capacity for Tier-1 will be oversupplied by 5 10 GW in 2018 and 2019, as US demand declines in 2018 (due to demand pull-in into 2017) and as manufacturing capacity increases. Increase 2017/18/19 EPS to $2.30/$3.56/$4.39 (vs street $1.51/$2.75/$3.02)
  8. Trading Solars

    I see how after Barclay dumped on CSIQ it struggles to come back. However, JASO gaining 4 cents is an insult after what they have delivered.
  9. Solar News

    China installs 10.5GW In July https://www.pv-tech.org/news/china-installs-10.52gw-of-solar-in-july-exceeds-2020-target-by-7
  10. Solar News

    "Solar stocks including First Solar were down today as the moon blocked the sun." https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2017/08/21/solar-eclipse-power-grid-solar-utilities-survive.html?ana=yahoo&yptr=yahoo The sentence is priceless, but is it really possible for someone to sell a stock of a solar company due to a solar eclipse? I guess human stupidity has no limits.
  11. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Sitting is apparently new smoking. 7 on and 7 off means they have to run 4 teams, depending on the level of automation it could be simply unpacking and placing cells at the start of the line and packing finished modules. 12 hours would have at least 1 hour worth of breaks, the pace may not be that fast. Last time pictures show almost senior age women. The pay is for untrained, unqualified labor, agency gets probably $3 per hour on the top of it. They are busy, but labor format ensures temporary conditions. They do say potential long-term opportunity, of course, if NAFTA is a go.
  12. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    Canadian is running 24 hours a day in Guelph, I bet for the US market https://www.randstad.ca/jobs/canadian-solar-straight-day-and-night-shifts-assembly_guelph_2019321stfen/
  13. Trading Solars

    How is the one explaining 4% drop in FSLR as the company benefits from Suniva? Unreal.
  14. Canadian Solar (CSIQ)

    This is what I found about today's downgrade: "Canadian Solar (CSIQ -7%) is downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight with a $14 price target at Barclays, which sees multiple near-term risks from the possible delay and/or weak pricing of project sales, soft investor demand for a J-REIT listing for its Japan assets in H2, and the Sept. 22 injury vote in the U.S. ITC 201 trade case. Project sale timing continues to be pushed back, the firm says, with expected 2017 sales already potentially delayed into 2018 and likely driving a 2017 revenue guidance miss. Barclays continues to see downward price risk potential for CSIQ to realize the full expected $1.8B of market value given the pressure on solar project values in the U.S. (60% of the company's portfolio); while CSIQ expects a J-REIT listing in H2, the J-REIT market continues to suffer from low liquidity, the firm adds." I was surprised to see this reaction. Normally, analysts can understand messages given to them by the companies; this one missed it. One is the sale of the projects. Qu just said it, the company who is buying it appears to be a foreign buyer. He quoted sPower transaction based on Alberta fund buying 700MW. The transaction was announced in February and consummated end of July. I would not be surprised if Bowmont Capital arranged the sale. They work with CSIQ in Canada and Alberta. So they found a buyer among Canadian companies, potentially. Not sure about the lower price here. Qu said it was what they expected. Yes, there is a push out of revenue for Q4, but if revenue is coming, does it matter if it is Q1 or Q4? Operationally (manufacturing) the company needs to produce profit, and I think that goal is more critical and frankly, Q4 is their most capable quarter this year to do so. What about the sale of Chinese, Japanese and UK projects? Can they have $1B in Q4 without the US sale? Sure they can. US sale is probably $1B on its own. JREIT- no liquidity, did the Barclay analyst read Reuters story? How does he know that? I bet he has a limited idea what he is talking about. Only 20% of the value, perhaps less will be the public issue; rest is loans. Is he saying there will not be $60M US on a Japanese market for it? Perhaps not, but I would not throw the company out for it. Looking at the numbers, Canadian will have double the volume of MW or more. IPO will tell the story, and this is just a speculation by Barclay. Two of the three funds are selling shares on the market btw, so what liquidity or lack of interest the speculation is based? Suniva- I guess he expected that Trump would not vote tariffs? I think that Canadian is uniquely positioned to avoid tariffs via Canada location. I do not know this for a fact, but law today allows for it. I kept my shares and averaged. Finally, what about the full potential of $1.8B? The stock is worth $800M now, I am not even sure what he meant.
  15. Trading Solars

    I forget solar eclipse as in sun not coming back again made them a sell
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