I made my own observations under the recent, excellent article posted on SA
I quote it in full here,
Author, thank you for an excellent article. A couple of observations.
The resale value of $1.8B, as per quote from the company release, includes “only the class B share value of the Company's tax equity deal projects in the U.S.” In my interpretation, this excludes minority-owned 49% of Southern purchase worth to the company $297M in carrying value under, as you have excellently pointed out, investment in affiliates.
The confirmation is offered by the asset valuation of 1.26GW of operational plants, where the investment in affiliates is not included. I quote the company’s statement as “recorded on its balance sheet as project assets ($1,308.5 million), assets held-for-sale ($203.5 million) and solar power systems, net ($65.8 million). “
So 897MW, including the only 443MW in the US, is recorded as $1.57B worth of assets with the resell value of $1.8B.
Based on the balance sheet from the Q2 the company had as much as $2.1B in solar plant assets, in three asset lines mentioned already, plus the non-current solar plant assets, including those in construction. For all those assets, the company has declared $1.3B in debt. The net of equity against the debt is $700M. At this point, the $297M of equity in affiliates is not included. However, it is easy to assume that at a minimum, $700M of equity is recoverable, if sales had zero profit.
Canadian received only $190M in revenue from Southern in the sale of 379MW, which indicates that Southern has potentially taken on all the debt. In this case, $297M could be recoverable in full.
Since all the projects have capitalized expenses, I would think the gross profit from $1.8B resale, in the amount of $222M can go all the way to the bottom line. I am not sure how much gross profit would be offered for 49% minority ownership of 363MW. At $0.15 per watt additional $55M could be extracted.
In total, CSIQ can see around $1.2B added into cash with a reduction of debt by $1.3B.
Since the $1.3B in equity of plants generates electricity, further debt is being reduced, therefore, improving the level of equity.
Recurrent does have 6GW in mid-term project development pipeline in the US. CSIQ should be able to expand Canadian operations to few hundred of GW and use cell factory in Thailand to support tariff-free modules for own developer since Canada was not found as a cause of injury under Suniva.
Lastly, the 75MW sold to IPO fund which the trading suppose to start on October 30th this year are estimated to sell at $3.51/watt. The revenue from those projects is about $28M per year based on FiT and generation. The 20% ownership retention would bring additional $0.70 per watt, which is very close in your estimates with $4.21 per watt.